On two-stage selection procedures and related probability-inequalities

In this paper we discuss a modification of the Dudewicz-Dalal procedure for the problem of selecting the population with the largest mean from k normal populations with unknown variances. We derive some inequalities and use them to lower-bound the probability of correct selection. These bounds are applied to the determination of the second-stage sample size which is required in order to achieve a prescribed probability of correct selection. We discuss the resulting procedure and compare it to that of Dudewicz and Dalai (1975).     

Least significant spacing for ‘one versus the rest’ normal populations

Consider sample means from k(≥2) normal populations where the variances and sample sizes are equal. The problem is to find the ‘least significant difference’ or ‘spacing’ (LSS) between the two largest means, so that if an observed spacing is larger we have confidence 1 - α that the population with largest sample mean also has the largest population mean.

When the variance is known it is shown that the maximum LSS occurs when k = 2, provided a < .2723. In other words, for any value of k we may use the usual (one-tailed) least significant difference to demonstrate that one population has a population mean greater than (or equal to) the rest.

When the variance is estimated bounds are obtained for the confidence which indicate that this last result is approximately correct.     

Selecting the best normal population better than a standard under unequal variances

In this article we consider a problem of selecting the best normal population that is better than a standard when the variances are unequal. Single-stage selection procedures are proposed when the variances are known. Wilcox (1984) and Taneja and Dudewicz (1992) proposed two-stage selection procedures when the variances are unknown. In addition to these procedures, we propose a two-stage selection procedure based on the method of Lam (1988). Comparisons are made between these selection procedures in terms of the sample sizes.     

TWO STAGE SELECTION PROBLEM FOR NORMAL POPULATIONS WITH UNEQUAL VARIANCES

The paper discusses the Dudewicz-Dalal modification of a Stein-type two sample procedure for the goal of selecting the population with the largest mean from k normal populations with unknown variances. Largest k values are obtained such that a procedure based on sample means is preferred to the Dudewicz-Dalal procedure. The more general goal of choosing those populations with the t largest means is also considered.     

A comparison of selection procedures for selecting the best normal population under heterogeneity of variance

This study examines the comparative probabilities of making a correct selection when using the means procedure (M), the medians procedure (D) and the rank-sum procedure (S) to correctly select the normal population with the largest mean under heterogeneity of variance. The comparison is conducted by using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques for 3, 4, and 5 normal populations under the condition that equal sample sizes are taken from each population. The population means and standard deviations are assumed to be equally-spaced. Two types of heterogeneity of variance are considered: (1) associating larger means with larger variances, and (2) associating larger means with smaller variances.     

SELECTING THE t BEST POPULATIONS — SCALE PARAMETER CASE

Selection from k independent populations of the t (< k) populations with the smallest scale parameters has been considered under the Indifference Zone approach by Bechhofer k Sobel (1954). The same problem has been considered under the Subset Selection approach by Gupta & Sobel (1962a) for the normal variances case and by Carroll, Gupta & Huang (1975) for the more general case of stochastically increasing distributions. This paper uses the Subset Selection approach to place confidence bounds on the probability of selecting all “good” populations, or only “good” populations, for the Case of scale parameters, where a “good” population is defined to have one of the t smallest scale parameters. This is an extension of the location parameter results obtained by Bofinger & Mengersen (1986). Special results are obtained for the case of selecting normal populations based on variances and the necessary tables are presented.     

Complete ranking procedures with appropriate loss functions

This paper treats the problem of comparing different evaluations of procedures which rank the variances of k normal populations. Procedures are evaluated on the basis of appropriate loss functions for a particular goal. The goal considered involves ranking the variances of k independent normal populations when the corresponding population means are unknown. The variances are ranked by selecting samples of size n from each population and using the sample variances to obtain the ranking. Our results extend those of various authors who looked at the narrower problem of evaluating the standard proceduv 3 associated with selecting the smallest of the population variances (see e.g.,P. Somerville (1975)).

Different loss functions (both parametric and non-parametric) appropriate to the particular goal under consideration are proposed. Procedures are evaluated by the performance of their risk over a particular preference zone. The sample size n, the least favorable parametric configuration, and the maximum value of the risk are three quantities studied for each procedure. When k is small these quantities, calculated by numerical simulation, show which loss functions respond better and which respond worse to increases in sample size. Loss functions are compared with one another according to the extent of this response. Theoretical results are given for the case of asymptotically large k. It is shown that for certain cases the error incurred by using these asymptotic results is small when k is only moderately large.

This work is an outgrowth of and extends that of J. Reeves and M.J. Sobel (1987) by comparing procedures on the basis of the sample size (perpopulation) required to obtain various bounds on the associated risk functions. New methodologies are developed to evaluate complete ranking procedures in different settings.     

Subset selection for normal means in multi-factor experiments

The procedure of Gupta [1956], [1965] for selecting a random sized subset of k ≧ 2 normal populations which contains the population with the largest population mean when the populations have a common variance is generalized to multi-factor experiments. Two-factor experiments with equal replication on each factor-level combination are discussed in detail. The cases of zero and non-zero interactions between factor levels are considered. For the two-factor, zero interaction case with a common number of observations at each factor-level combination, a table of constants necessary to implement the procedure is provided for experiments having selected levels per factor; the constants are equi-coordinate upper percentage points of a multivariate Student t distribution.     

SELECTING THE m POPULATIONS WITH LARGEST MEANS FROM k NORMAL POPULATIONS WITH UNKNOWN VARIANCES

This paper gives a two-sample procedure for selecting the m populations with the largest means from k normal populations with unknown variances. The method is a generalization of a recent work by Ofosu [1973] and hence should find wider practical applications. The experimenter takes an initial sample of preset size N₀ from each population and computes an unbiased estimate of its variance. From this estimate he determines the second sample size for the population according to a table presented for this purpose. The populations associated with the m largest overall sample means will be selected. The procedure is shown to satisfy a confidence requirement similar to that of Ofosu.     

An improved two-stage selection procedure

The problem of selecting the best of k normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances is considered The two-stage procedure proposed by Rinott (1978) is improved so that less samples need to be drawn in the second-stage of the sampling scheme     

On selecting from k finite populations the population with the largest α -quantile

Several procedures for ranking populations according to the quantile of a given order have been discussed in the literature. These procedures deal with continuous distributions. This paper deals with the problem of selecting a population with the largest α-quantile from k ≥ 2 finite populatins, where the size of each population is known. A selection rule is given based on the sample quantiles, where he samples are drawn without replacement. A formula for the minimum probability of a correct selection for the given rule, for a certain configuration of the population α-quantiles, is given in terms of the sample numbers.     

On selecting a subset which contains all populations better than a control

Let π₁…, π_k denote k(≥ 2) populations with unknown means μ₁ , …, μ_k and variances σ₁ ² , …, σ_k ² , respectively and let π_o denote the control population having mean μ_o and variance σ_o ² . It is assumed that these populations are normally distributed with correlation matrix {ρ_ij}. The goal is to select a subset, of populations of π₁ , …, π_k which contains all the populations with means larger than or equal to the mean of the control one. Procedures are given for selecting such a subset so that the probability that all the populations with means larger than or equal to the mean of the control one are included in the selected subset is at least equal to a predetermined value P?(l/k < P? < 1). The goal treated here is a first step screening procedure that allows the experimenter to choose a subset and withhold judgement about which one has the largest mean. Then, if the one with the largest mean is desired it can be chosen from the selected subset on the basis of cost and other considerations. Percentage points are also included.     

A Two-stage minimax procedure with screening for selecting the largest normal mean

The problem of selecting the normal population with the largest population mean when the populations have a common known variance is considered. A two-stage procedure is proposed which guarantees the same probability requirement using the indifference-zone approach as does the single-stage procedure of Bechhofer (1954). The two-stage procedure has the highly desirable property that the expected total number of observations required by the procedure is always less than the total number of observations required by the corresponding single-stage procedure, regardless of the configuration of the population means. The saving in expected total number of observations can be substantial, particularly when the configuration of the population means is favorable to the experimenter. The saving is accomplished by screening out “non-contending” populations in the first stage, and concentrating sampling only on “contending” populations in the second stage.

The two-stage procedure can be regarded as a composite one which uses a screening subset-type approach (Gupta (1956), (1965)) in the first stage, and an indifference-zone approach (Bechhofer (1954)) applied to all populations retained in the selected sub-set in the second stage. Constants to implement the procedure for various k and P? are provided, as are calculations giving the saving in expected total sample size if the two-stage procedure is used in place of the corresponding single-stage procedure.     

Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.     

Model of Combined Prevision: An Application of the Monthly Series of Dengue Notifications in the State of Pernambuco

In this paper we state and justify a two-stage sampling procedure for selecting a subset of size m containing the t best of k independent normal populations, when the ranking parameters are the population means. We do not assume that the variances of the populations are known or equal. Discrete event simulation studies are often concerned with choosing one or more system designs which are best in some sense. We present empirical results from a typical simulation application for which the observations are not normally distributed.     

ON ESTIMATION FOLLOWING SELECTION FROM NONREGULAR DISTRIBUTIONS

Independent random samples are drawn from k (≥ 2) populations, having probability density functions belonging to a general truncation parameter family. The populations associated with the smallest and the largest truncation parameters are called the lower extreme population (LEP) and the upper extreme population (UEP), respectively. For the goal of selecting the LEP (UEP), we consider the natural selection rule, which selects the population corresponding to the smallest (largest) of k maximum likelihood estimates as the LEP (UEP), and study the problem of estimating the truncation parameter of the selected population. We unify some of the existing results, available in the literature for specific distributions, by deriving the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) for the truncation parameter of the selected population. The conditional unbiasedness of the UMVUE is also checked. The cases of the left and the right truncation parameter families are dealt with separately. Finally, we consider an application to the Pareto probability model, where the performances of the UMVUE and three other natural estimators are compared with each other, under the mean squared error criterion.     

Multiple comparisons with ‘best’ for multivariate normal populations

Comparisons of multivariate normal populations are made using a mul-tivariate approach (instead of reducing the problem to a univariate one). A rather negative finding is that, for comparisons with the ‘best’ of each variate, repeated univariate comparisons appear to be almost as efficient as multivariate comparisons, at least for the bivariate case and, under certain circumstances, for higher dimensional cases. Investigations are done on comparisons with the ‘MAX-best’ population (that one having the largest maximum of the marginal means), the ‘MIN-best’ (having the largest minimum) and the ‘O-best’ (being closest to largest in all marginal means). Detailed results are given for the bivariate normal with extensions indicated for the multivariate.     

Selecting the normal population with largest (Smallest) value of mahalanobis distance from the origin

In this paper the problem of selecting the best of several normal populations in terms of Mahalanobis distance (MD) whenpopulation variance-covariance matrices are equal and unknown is discussed. The selection rule enunciated is shown to ap-proximately satisfy the usual requirement of a minimum guaranteed probability of correct selection. Methods of computing tables required for application of the rule are discussed.     

A two-stage minimax procedure with screening for selecting the largest normal mean (ii): an improved pcs lower bound and associated tables

This paper is a follow-up to an earlier article by the authors in which they proposed a two-stage procedure with screening to select the normal population with the largest population mean when the populations have a common known variance. The two-stage procedure has the highly desirable property that the expected total number of observations required by the procedure is always less than the total number of observations required by the corresponding single-stage procedure of Bechhofer (1954), regardless of the configuration of the population means. The present paper contains new results which make possible the more efficient implementation of the two-stage procedure. Tables for this purpose are given, and the improvements achieved (which are substantial) are assessed.     

On selecting the treatment with the largest probability of survival

Suppose there are k(>= 2) treatments and each treatment is a Bernoulli process with binomial sampling. The problem of selecting a random-sized subset which contains the treatment with the largest survival probability (reliability or probability of success) is considered. Based on the ideas from both classical approaches and general Bayesian statistical decision approach, a new subset selection procedure is proposed to solve this kind of problem in both balanced and unbalanced designs. Comparing with the classical procedures, the proposed procedure has a significantly smaller selected subset. The optimal properties and performance of it were examined. The methods of selecting and fitting the priors and the results of Monte Carlo simulations on selected important cases are also studied.