On the information content of partial observations

The modified zero order approach to estimating coefficients in the face of missing observations treats them as parameters to be estimated simultaneously with the missing observations. The paper then investigates (in the context of Han's generalized regression model)(i) when parameter estimators don't vary between using the partial data points and using only the complete ones (the informationless result), and (ii) large sample properties of the modified zero order estimator. It's found the sequential cut property is crucial to the informationless result for coefficient estimators; consistency of the modified zero order estimator depends on the percentage of observations with missing elements for large sample sizes or the sequential cut property.     

A class of sequential tests for two‐sample composite hypotheses

The authors propose a class of statistics based on Rao's score for the sequential testing of composite hypotheses comparing two treatments (populations). Asymptotic approximations of the statistics lead them to propose sequential tests and to derive their monitoring boundaries. As special cases, they construct sequential versions of the two‐sample t‐test for normal populations and two‐sample z‐score tests for binomial populations. The proposed algorithms are simple and easy to compute, as no numerical integration is required. Furthermore, the user can analyze the data at any time regardless of how many inspections have been made. Monte Carlo simulations allow the authors to compare the power and the average stopping time (also known as average sample number) of the proposed tests to those of nonsequential and group sequential tests. A two‐armed comparative clinical trial in patients with adult leukemia allows them to illustrate the efficiency of their methods in the case of binary responses.     

A MODIFICATION OF THE SEQUENTIAL PROBABILITY RATIO TEST FOR TESTING A NORMAL MEAN

A modification of the sequential probability ratio test is proposed in which Wald's parallel boundaries are broken at some preassigned point of the sample number axis and Anderson's converging boundaries are used prior to that. Read's partial sequential probability ratio test can be considered as a special case of the proposed procedure. As far as 'the maximum average sample number reducing property is concerned, the procedure is as good as Anderson's modified sequential probability ratio test.     

Group sequential x2 statistic for testing the difference of two mean vectors in clinical trials

In this study we discuss the group sequential procedures for comparing two treatments based on multivariate observations in clinical trials. Also we suppose that a response vector on each of two treatments has a multivariate normal distribution with unknown covariance matrix. Then we propose a group sequential x² statistic in order to carry out repeated significance test for hypothesis of no difference between two population mean vectors. In order to realize the group sequential test where average sample number is reduced, we propose another modified group sequential x² statistic by extension of Jennison and Turnbull ( 1991 ). After construction of repeated confidence boundaries for making the repeated significance test, we compare two group sequential procedures based on two statistics regarding the average sample number and the power of the test in the simulations.     

On sequential Monte Carlo, partial rejection control and approximate Bayesian computation

We present a variant of the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by incorporating the partial rejection control mechanism of Liu (2001). We show that the resulting algorithm can be considered as a sequential Monte Carlo sampler with a modified mutation kernel. We prove that the new sampler can reduce the variance of the incremental importance weights when compared with standard sequential Monte Carlo samplers, and provide a central limit theorem. Finally, the sampler is adapted for application under the challenging approximate Bayesian computation modelling framework.     

Modified d-optimal sequential procedure in allocation problem

When an experimenter wishes to compare t treatments with M experimental units, one of the first problems he faces is how to allocate N experimental units into t treatments. When no pre treat merit information about the experimental units is available, "randomization" is the widely accepted guiding principle to deal with the allocation problem But pre treat merit information usually is available, although it is seldom fully used for allocation purposes. Recently, Harville considered the allocation problem under a covariance model. He suggested a D-optimal sequential procedure that may be used to construct nearly D-optimal allocations. However, Harville's sequential procedure requires constructing a D-optimal initial allocation at the first stages and that may be computationally unfeasible in some real situations, Such construction is not needed for a new sequential.     

Three-stage designs for monitoring clinical trials

Optimal three-stage designs with equal sample sizes at each stage are presented and compared to fixed sample designs, fully sequential designs, designs restricted to use the fixed sample critical value at the final stage, and to modifications of other group sequential designs previously proposed in the literature. Typically, the greatest savings realized with interim analyses are obtained by the first interim look. More than 50% of the savings possible with a fully sequential design can be realized with a simple two-stage design. Three-stage designs can realize as much as 75% of the possible savings. Without much loss in efficiency, the designs can be modified so that the critical value at the final stage equals the usual fixed sample value while maintaining the overall level of significance, alleviating some potential confusion should a final stage be necessary. Some common group sequential designs, modified to allow early acceptance of the null hypothesis, are shown to be nearly optimal in some settings while performing poorly in others. An example is given to illustrate the use of several three-stage plans in the design of clinical trials.     

Estimating Process Capability Index C PM Using a Bootstrap Sequential Sampling Procedure

Construction of a confidence interval for process capability index C _PM is often based on a normal approximation with fixed sample size. In this article, we describe a different approach in constructing a fixed-width confidence interval for process capability index C _PM with a preassigned accuracy by using a combination of bootstrap and sequential sampling schemes. The optimal sample size required to achieve a preassigned confidence level is obtained using both two-stage and modified two-stage sequential procedures. The procedure developed is also validated using an extensive simulation study.     

Optimal Experiments for Time-Dependent Mineral Processes

Time dependence is an important characteristic of mineral processing plant data. This paper finds that the time dependence in the recovery data for an experiment at Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL) (Napier-Munn, 1995) can be described by an autoregressive-one process. The paper investigates the optimum form of experimental design for such data. Two intuitive approaches for the design of experiments involving time-dependent data have been disproved recently. Cheng & Steinberg (1991) showed that in some circumstances systematic experiments are preferable to replicated randomized block designs, and Saunders & Eccleston (1992) showed that rather than sampling at a frequency which ensures independent data, in some circumstances sampling intervals should be as small as possible. A third issue, raised in this paper, concerns the use of standard statistical tests when the data are serially correlated. It is shown that the simple paired t -test, suitably modified for time dependence, is appropriate and easily adapted to allow for a covariate and a sequential analysis. The results are illustrated using the BCL data and are already being used to design major experiments involving another mineral process.     

An Introduction to Practical Sequential Inferences via Single-Arm Binary Response Studies Using the binseqtest R Package

We review sequential designs, including group sequential and two-stage designs, for testing or estimating a single binary parameter. We use this simple case to introduce ideas common to many sequential designs, which in this case can be explained without explicitly using stochastic processes. We focus on methods provided by our newly developed R package, binseqtest, which exactly bound the Type I error rate of tests and exactly maintain proper coverage of confidence intervals. Within this framework, we review some allowable practical adaptations of the sequential design. We explore issues such as the following: How should the design be modified if no assessment was made at one of the planned sequential stopping times? How should the parameter be estimated if the study needs to be stopped early? What reasons for stopping early are allowed? How should inferences be made when the study is stopped for crossing the boundary, but later information is collected about responses of subjects that had enrolled before the decision to stop but had not responded by that time? Answers to these questions are demonstrated using basic methods that are available in our binseqtest R package. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Tables for pairwise multiple comparisons using shaffer's modifiedsequentially-rejective procedure

A sequentially rejective (SR) testing procedure introduced by Holm (1979) and modified (MSR) by Shaffer (1986) is considered for testing all pairwise mean comparisons.For such comparisons, both the SR and MSR methods require that the observed test statistics be ordered and compared, each in turn, to appropriate percentiles on Student's t distribution.For the MSR method these percentiles are based on the maximum number of true null hypotheses remaining at each stage of the sequential procedure, given prior significance at previous stages, A function is developed for determining this number from the number of means being tested and the stage of the test.For a test of all pairwise comparisons, the logical implications which follow the rejection of a null hypothesis renders the MSR procedure uniformly more powerful than the SR procedure.Tables of percentiles for comparing K means, 3 < K < 6, using the MSR method are presented.These tables use Sidak's (1967) multiplicative inequality and simplify the use of t he MSR procedure.Several modifications to the MSR are suggested as a means of further increasing the power for testing the pairwise comparisons.General use of the MSR and the corresponding function for testing other parameters besides the mean is discussed.     

On control charts for monitoring the variance of a time series

In this paper we derive control charts for the variance of a Gaussian process using the likelihood ratio approach, the generalized likelihood ratio approach, the sequential probability ratio method and a generalized sequential probability ratio procedure, the Shiryaev–Roberts procedure and a generalized modified Shiryaev–Roberts approach. Recursive presentations for the calculation of the control statistics are given for autoregressive processes of order 1. In an extensive simulation study these schemes are compared with existing control charts for the variance. In order to asses the performance of the schemes both the average run length and the average delay are used.     

A sequential design for binomial clinical trials

We investigate a sequential procedure for comparing two treatments in a binomial clinical trial. The procedure uses play-the-winner sampling with termination as soon as the absolute difference in the number of successes of the two treatments reaches a critical value. The important aspect of our procedure is that the critical value is modified as the experiment progresses. Numerical results are given which show that this procedure is preferred to all other existing procedures on the basis of the sample size on the poorer treatment and also on the basis of total sample size.     

Asyhptotic efficiency of sequential and non-sequential procedures based on fisher's method of combining tests

In this paper we propose test statistics based on Fisher's method of combining tests for hypotheses involving two or more parameters simultaneously, It Is shown that these tests are asymptotically efficient In the sense of Bahadur, It is then shown how these tests can be modified to give sequential test procedures which are efficient in the sense of Berk and Brown (1978).

The results in section 3 generalize the work of Perng (1977) and Durairajan (1980).     

Filtering via approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique to facilitate Bayesian inference from complex models. In this article we present an ABC approximation designed to perform biased filtering for a Hidden Markov Model when the likelihood function is intractable. We use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to both fit and sample from our ABC approximation of the target probability density. This approach is shown to, empirically, be more accurate w.r.t.?the original filter than competing methods. The theoretical bias of our method is investigated; it is shown that the bias goes to zero at the expense of increased computational effort. Our approach is illustrated on a constrained sequential lasso for portfolio allocation to 15 constituents of the FTSE 100 share index.     

Hypothesis testing for Markov chain Monte Carlo

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are useful when one is interested in deciding whether the expected value of a certain quantity is above or below a given threshold. We show non-asymptotic error bounds and bounds on the expected number of samples for three types of tests, a fixed sample size test, a sequential test with indifference region, and a sequential test without indifference region. Our tests can lead to significant savings in sample size. We illustrate our results on an example of Bayesian parameter inference involving an ODE model of a biochemical pathway.     

Truncated sequential sign tests for location shift

A truncated sequential sign test for location shift is studied when the null or target location has been estimated from a prior, fixed sample. If the randomness of the target is ignored then the test is shown to be strongly anticonservative, the degree being proportional to the ratio of the truncation point to the fixed sample size. The test is distribution-free under the hypothesis of no shift enabling exact Type I errors and null expected samples sizes to be calculated and compared to a modified Brownian motion approximation. A Monte Carlo power study shows that the test compares favorably with thr test against a Xnown target. An abbreviated table of critical values is given.     

Sequential and two-stage procedures for selecting the better exponential population covering the case of unknown and unequal scale parameters

The problems of selecting the larger location parameter of two exponential distributions are discussed. When the scale parameters are the same but unknown, we consider the procedure of Desu et al. (1977) in detail, and study some of its exact and asymptotic properties. We indicate how this procedure can be modified along the lines of Mukhopadhyay (1979, 1980) to achieve first-order asymptotic efficiency. We then propose a sequential procedure for this set-up and show that it is asymptotically second-order efficient according to Ghosh and Mukhopadhyay (1981). In case the scale parameters are completely unknown and unequal, we propose a two-stage procedure that guarantees the probability of correct selection to exceed the prescribed nominal level in the preference zone. We do not need any new tables to implement this particular procedure other than those in Krishnaiah and Armitage (1964), Gupta and Sobel (1962), Guttman and Milton (1969). We also propose a sequential method in this case and derive some of its asymptotic properties.     

A rank test for stochastically ordered alternatives

A rank test based on the number of ‘near-matches’ among within-block rankings is proposed for stochastically ordered alternatives in a randomized block design with t treatments and b blocks. The asymptotic relative efficiency of this test with respect to the Page test is computed as number of blocks increases to infinity. A sequential analog of the above test procedure is also considered. A repeated significance test procedure is developed and average sample number is computed asymptotically under the null hypothesis as well as under a sequence of contiguous alternatives.     

To be or not to be valid in testing the significance of the slope in simple quantitative linear models with autocorrelated errors

In this article, the validity of procedures for testing the significance of the slope in quantitative linear models with one explanatory variable and first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] errors is analyzed in a Monte Carlo study conducted in the time domain. Two cases are considered for the regressor: fixed and trended versus random and AR(1). In addition to the classical t -test using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator of the slope and its standard error, we consider seven t -tests with n-2\,\hbox{df} built on the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator or an estimated GLS estimator, three variants of the classical t -test with different variances of the OLS estimator, two asymptotic tests built on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, the F -test for fixed effects based on the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimator in the mixed-model approach, two t -tests with n - 2 df based on first differences (FD) and first-difference ratios (FDR), and four modified t -tests using various corrections of the number of degrees of freedom. The FDR t -test, the REML F -test and the modified t -test using Dutilleul's effective sample size are the most valid among the testing procedures that do not assume the complete knowledge of the covariance matrix of the errors. However, modified t -tests are not applicable and the FDR t -test suffers from a lack of power when the regressor is fixed and trended ( i.e. , FDR is the same as FD in this case when observations are equally spaced), whereas the REML algorithm fails to converge at small sample sizes. The classical t -test is valid when the regressor is fixed and trended and autocorrelation among errors is predominantly negative, and when the regressor is random and AR(1), like the errors, and autocorrelation is moderately negative or positive. We discuss the results graphically, in terms of the circularity condition defined in repeated measures ANOVA and of the effective sample size used in correlation analysis with autocorrelated sample data. An example with environmental data is presented.