A New Kind of Asymptotic Quasi-Score Estimating Function

A new definition of asymptotic quasi-score sequence of estimating functions is given and studied. The relationship between asymptotic quasi-likelihood and quasi-likelihood estimates is investigated. A new practical approach for obtaining a good estimate of θ in the model y _t = f_t (θ) + m_t without any prior knowledge on the nature of E ( m ² _t |F _{t −1}) is suggested, where f_t is a predictable process and m_t is a martingale difference process. Two examples are used to show that the approach is practicable.     

The Pearson Diffusions: A Class of Statistically Tractable Diffusion Processes

Abstract.  The Pearson diffusions form a flexible class of diffusions defined by having linear drift and quadratic squared diffusion coefficient. It is demonstrated that for this class explicit statistical inference is feasible. A complete model classification is presented for the ergodic Pearson diffusions. The class of stationary distributions equals the full Pearson system of distributions. Well-known instances are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and the square root (CIR) processes. Also diffusions with heavy-tailed and skew marginals are included. Explicit formulae for the conditional moments and the polynomial eigenfunctions are derived. Explicit optimal martingale estimating functions are found. The discussion covers GMM, quasi-likelihood, non-linear weighted least squares estimation and likelihood inference too. The analytical tractability is inherited by transformed Pearson diffusions, integrated Pearson diffusions, sums of Pearson diffusions and Pearson stochastic volatility models. For the non-Markov models, explicit optimal prediction-based estimating functions are found. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal.     

Parameter Orthogonality and Bias Adjustment for Estimating Functions

Abstract.  We consider an extended notion of parameter orthogonality for estimating functions, called nuisance parameter insensitivity, which allows a unified treatment of nuisance parameters for a wide range of methods, including Liang and Zeger's generalized estimating equations. Nuisance parameter insensitivity has several important properties in common with conventional parameter orthogonality, such as the nuisance parameter causing no loss of efficiency for estimating the interest parameter, and a simplified estimation algorithm. We also consider bias adjustment for profile estimating functions, and apply the results to restricted maximum likelihood estimation of dispersion parameters in generalized estimating equations.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUASI-SCORE AND LOCALLY E-SUFFICIENT ESTIMATING FUNCTIONS

The relationship between quasi-score estimating functions and locally E-sufficient estimating functions is discussed. Sufficient conditions for a quasi-score estimating function to be locally E-sufficient are given.     

Building adaptive estimating equations when inverse of covariance estimation is difficult

Summary. To construct an optimal estimating function by weighting a set of score functions, we must either know or estimate consistently the covariance matrix for the individual scores. In problems with high dimensional correlated data the estimated covariance matrix could be unreliable. The smallest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix will be the most important for weighting the estimating equations, but in high dimensions these will be poorly determined. Generalized estimating equations introduced the idea of a working correlation to minimize such problems. However, it can be difficult to specify the working correlation model correctly. We develop an adaptive estimating equation method which requires no working correlation assumptions. This methodology relies on finding a reliable approximation to the inverse of the variance matrix in the quasi-likelihood equations. We apply a multivariate generalization of the conjugate gradient method to find estimating equations that preserve the information well at fixed low dimensions. This approach is particularly useful when the estimator of the covariance matrix is singular or close to singular, or impossible to invert owing to its large size.     

Quasi-likelihood from<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>-estimators: A numerical comparison with empirical likelihood

In this paper we compare two robust pseudo-likelihoods for a parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. These functions are obtained by computing quasi-likelihood and empirical likelihood from the estimating equations which define robustM-estimators. Application examples in the context of linear transformation models are considered. Monte Carlo studies are performed in order to assess the finite-sample performance of the inferential procedures based on quasi-and empirical likelihood, when the objective is the construction of robust confidence regions.     

An alternative derivation of the Kalman filter using the quasi-likelihood method

The Kalman filter gives a recursive procedure for estimating state vectors. The recursive procedure is determined by a matrix, so-called gain matrix, where the gain matrix is varied based on the system to which the Kalman filter is applied. Traditionally the gain matrix is derived through the maximum likelihood approach when the probability structure of underlying system is known. As an alternative approach, the quasi-likelihood method is considered in this paper. This method is used to derive the gain matrix without the full knowledge of the probability structure of the underlying system. Two models are considered in this paper, the simple state space model and the model with correlated between measurement and transition equation disturbances. The purposes of this paper are (i) to show a simple way to derive the gain matrix; (ii) to give an alternative approach for obtaining optimal estimation of state vector when underlying system is relatively complex.     

A comparison of efficiencies between quasi-likelihood and pseudo-likelihood estimates in non-separable spatial–temporal binary data

The goal of this paper is to compare the performance of two estimation approaches, the quasi-likelihood estimating equation and the pseudo-likelihood equation, against model mis-specification for non-separable binary data. This comparison, to the authors’ knowledge, has not been done yet. In this paper, we first extend the quasi-likelihood work on spatial data to non-separable binary data. Some asymptotic properties of the quasi-likelihood estimate are also briefly discussed. We then use the techniques of a truncated Gaussian random field with a quasi-likelihood type model and a Gibbs sampler with a conditional model in the Markov random field to generate spatial–temporal binary data, respectively. For each simulated data set, both of the estimation methods are used to estimate parameters. Some discussion about the simulation results are also included.     

Estimated estimating equations: semiparametric inference for clustered and longitudinal data

Summary.  We introduce a flexible marginal modelling approach for statistical inference for clustered and longitudinal data under minimal assumptions. This estimated estimating equations approach is semiparametric and the proposed models are fitted by quasi-likelihood regression, where the unknown marginal means are a function of the fixed effects linear predictor with unknown smooth link, and variance–covariance is an unknown smooth function of the marginal means. We propose to estimate the nonparametric link and variance–covariance functions via smoothing methods, whereas the regression parameters are obtained via the estimated estimating equations. These are score equations that contain nonparametric function estimates. The proposed estimated estimating equations approach is motivated by its flexibility and easy implementation. Moreover, if data follow a generalized linear mixed model, with either a specified or an unspecified distribution of random effects and link function, the model proposed emerges as the corresponding marginal (population-average) version and can be used to obtain inference for the fixed effects in the underlying generalized linear mixed model, without the need to specify any other components of this generalized linear mixed model. Among marginal models, the estimated estimating equations approach provides a flexible alternative to modelling with generalized estimating equations. Applications of estimated estimating equations include diagnostics and link selection. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators for the model parameters is derived, enabling statistical inference. Practical illustrations include Poisson modelling of repeated epileptic seizure counts and simulations for clustered binomial responses.     

Local Influence in Generalized Estimating Equations

Abstract.  We investigate the influence of subjects or observations on regression coefficients of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) using local influence. The GEE approach does not require the full multivariate distribution of the response vector. We extend the likelihood displacement to a quasi-likelihood displacement, and propose local influence diagnostics under several perturbation schemes. An illustrative example in GEEs is given and we compare the results using the local influence and deletion methods.     

Revealing age-specific past and future unrelated costs of pneumococcal infections by flexible generalized estimating equations

We aimed to study the excess health-care expenditures for persons with a known positive isolate of Streptococcus pneumoniae. The data set was compiled by linking the database of the largest Belgian Sickness Fund with data obtained from laboratories reporting pneumococcal isolates. We analyzed the age-specific per-patient cumulative costs over time, using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). The mean structure was described by fractional polynomials. The quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion was used to compare different correlation structures. We show for all age groups that the health-care costs incurred by diagnosed pneumococcal patients are significantly larger than those incurred by undiagnosed matched persons. This is not only the case at the time of diagnosis but also long before and after the time of diagnosis. These findings can be informative for the current debate on unrelated costs in health economic evaluation, and GEEs could be used to estimate these costs for other diseases. Finally, these results can be used to inform policy on the expected budget impact of preventing pneumococcal infections.     

Robust modified profile estimating function with application to the generalized estimating equation

We consider methods for reducing the effect of fitting nuisance parameters on a general estimating function, when the estimating function depends on not only a vector of parameters of interest, θ$\theta$, but also on a vector of nuisance parameters, λ$\lambda$. We propose a class of modified profile estimating functions with plug-in bias reduced by two orders. A robust version of the adjustment term does not require any information about the probability mechanism beyond that required by the original estimating function. An important application of this method is bias correction for the generalized estimating equation in analyzing stratified longitudinal data, where the stratum-specific intercepts are considered as fixed nuisance parameters, the dependence of the expected outcome on the covariates is of interest, and the intracluster correlation structure is unknown. Furthermore, when the quasi-scores for θ$\theta$ and λ$\lambda$ are available, we propose an additional multiplicative adjustment term such that the modified profile estimating function is approximately information unbiased. This multiplicative adjustment term can serve as an optimal weight in the analysis of stratified studies. A brief simulation study shows that the proposed method considerably reduces the impact of the nuisance parameters.     

Combining estimating functions for volatility

Accurate estimates of volatility are needed in risk management. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models and random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) models have been used for volatility modelling. Following Heyde [1997. Quasi-likelihood and its Applications. Springer, New York], volatility estimates are obtained by combining two different estimating functions. It turns out that the combined estimating function for the parameter in autoregressive processes with GARCH errors and RCA models contains maximum information. The combination of the least squares (LS) estimating function and the least absolute deviation (LAD) estimating function with application to GARCH model error identification is discussed as an application.     

Estimating the Cost of a Warranty

The cost of certain types of warranties is closely related to functions that arise in renewal theory. The problem of estimating the warranty cost for a random sample of size n can be reduced to estimating these functions. In an earlier paper, I gave several methods of estimating the expected number of renewals, called the renewal function. This answered an important accounting question of how to arrive at a good approximation of the expected warranty cost. In this article, estimation of the renewal function is reviewed and several extensions are given. In particular, a resampling estimator of the renewal function is introduced. Further, I argue that managers may wish to examine other summary measures of the warranty cost, in particular the variability. To estimate this variability, I introduce estimators, both parametric and nonparametric, of the variance associated with the number of renewals. Several numerical examples are provided.     

Longitudinal data analysis based on generalized linear partially varying-coefficient models

In this article, we consider a generalized linear partially varying-coefficient model for longitudinal data analysis. A local quasi-likelihood method is proposed to estimate the constant-coefficient and varying-coefficient functions simultaneously based on the local polynomial kernel regression. The corresponding standard error estimates are derived. Large sample properties are investigated. The proposed methodologies are demonstrated by extensive simulation studies and a real example.     

Invariant tests based on M-estimators,estimating functions,and the generalized method of moments

We study the invariance properties of various test criteria which have been proposed for hypothesis testing in the context of incompletely specified models, such as models which are formulated in terms of estimating functions (Godambe, 1960) or moment conditions and are estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM) procedures (Hansen, 1982), and models estimated by pseudo-likelihood (Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Trognon, 1984b,c) and M-estimation methods. The invariance properties considered include invariance to (possibly nonlinear) hypothesis reformulations and reparameterizations. The test statistics examined include Wald-type, LR-type, LM-type, score-type, and C(α)?type criteria. Extending the approach used in Dagenais and Dufour (1991), we show first that all these test statistics except the Wald-type ones are invariant to equivalent hypothesis reformulations (under usual regularity conditions), but all five of them are not generally invariant to model reparameterizations, including measurement unit changes in nonlinear models. In other words, testing two equivalent hypotheses in the context of equivalent models may lead to completely different inferences. For example, this may occur after an apparently innocuous rescaling of some model variables. Then, in view of avoiding such undesirable properties, we study restrictions that can be imposed on the objective functions used for pseudo-likelihood (or M-estimation) as well as the structure of the test criteria used with estimating functions and generalized method of moments (GMM) procedures to obtain invariant tests. In particular, we show that using linear exponential pseudo-likelihood functions allows one to obtain invariant score-type and C(α)?type test criteria, while in the context of estimating function (or GMM) procedures it is possible to modify a LR-type statistic proposed by Newey and West (1987) to obtain a test statistic that is invariant to general reparameterizations. The invariance associated with linear exponential pseudo-likelihood functions is interpreted as a strong argument for using such pseudo-likelihood functions in empirical work.     

A working estimating equation for spatial count data

This paper proposes a working estimating equation which is computationally easy to use for spatial count data. The proposed estimating equation is a modification of quasi-likelihood estimating equations without the need of correctly specifying the covariance matrix. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the proposed estimator has consistency and asymptotic normality. A simulation comparison also indicates that the proposed method has competitive performance in dealing with over-dispersion data from a parameter-driven model.     

Non-stationary quasi-likelihood and asymptotic optimality

This article is concerned with non-stationary time series which does not require the full knowledge of the likelihood function. Consequently, a quasi-likelihood is employed for estimating parameters instead of the maximum (exact) likelihood. For stationary cases, Wefelmeyer (1996) and Hwang and Basawa (2011a,b), among others, discussed the issue of asymptotic optimality of the quasi-likelihood within a restricted class of estimators. For non-stationary cases, however, the asymptotic optimality property of the quasi-likelihood has not yet been adequately addressed in the literature. This article presents the asymptotic optimal property of the non-stationary quasi-likelihood within certain estimating functions. We use a random norm instead of a constant norm to get limit distributions of estimates. To illustrate main results, the non-stationary ARCH model, branching Markov process, and non-stationary random-coefficient AR process are discussed.     

Optimal estimating function for estimation and prediction in semi-parametric models

In a seminal paper, Godambe [1985. The foundations of finite sample estimation in stochastic processes. Biometrika 72, 419–428.] introduced the ‘estimating function’ approach to estimation of parameters in semi-parametric models under a filtering associated with a martingale structure. Later, Godambe [1987. The foundations of finite sample estimation in stochastic processes II. Bernoulli, Vol. 2. V.N.V. Science Press, 49–54.] and Godambe and Thompson [1989. An extension of quasi-likelihood Estimation. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 22, 137–172.] replaced this filtering by a more flexible conditioning. Abraham et al. [1997. On the prediction for some nonlinear time-series models using estimating functions. In: Basawa, I.V., et al. (Eds.), IMS Selected Proceedings of the Symposium on Estimating Functions, Vol. 32. pp. 259–268.] and Thavaneswaran and Heyde [1999. Prediction via estimating functions. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 77, 89–101.] invoked the theory of estimating functions for one-step ahead prediction in time-series models. This paper addresses the problem of simultaneous estimation of parameters and multi-step ahead prediction of a vector of future random variables in semi-parametric models by extending the inimitable approach of 13 and 14. The proposed technique is in conformity with the paradigm of the modern theory of estimating functions leading to finite sample optimality within a chosen class of estimating functions, which in turn are used to get the predictors. Particular applications of the technique give predictors that enjoy optimality properties with respect to other well-known criteria.     

On repeated measures analysis with misspecified covariance structure

In recent years various sophisticated methods have been developed for the analysis of repeated measures, or longitudinal data. The more traditional approach, based on a normal likelihood function, has been shown to be unsatisfactory, in the sense of yielding asymptotically biased estimates when the covariance structure is misspecified. More recent methodology, based on generalized linear models and quasi-likelihood estimation, has gained widespread acceptance as 'generalized estimating equations'. However, this also has theoretical problems. In this paper a suggestion is made for improving the asymptotic behaviour of estimators by using the older approach, implemented via Gaussian estimation. The resulting estimating equations include the quasi-score function as one component, so the methodology proposed can be viewed as a combination of Gaussian estimation and generalized estimating equations which has a firmer asymptotic basis than either alone has.