ON EMPIRICAL BAYES STOPPING TIMES

We consider the empirical Bayes decision theory where the component problems are the optimal fixed sample size decision problem and a sequential decision problem. With these components, an empirical Bayes decision procedure selects both a stopping rule function and a terminal decision rule function. Empirical Bayes stopping rules are constructed for each case and the asymptotic behaviours are investigated.     

On asymptotic optimality of bayes empirical bayes estimators

In an empirical Bayes decision problem, a prior distribution ? is placed on a one-dimensfonal family G of priors G_w, wεΩ, to produce a Bayes empirical Bayes estimator, The asymptotic optimaiity of the Bayes estimator is established when the support of ? is Ω and the marginal distributions H_w have monotone likelihood ratio and continuous Kullback-Leibler information number.     

Verallgemeinerte bayes-verfahren bei sequentiellen testproblemen

In this paper, problems of sequential decision theory are taken into consideration by extending the definition of the BAYES rule and treating BAYES rules. This generalisation is quite useful for practice. In many cases only BAYES rules can be calculated. The conditions under which such sequential decision procedures exist are demonstrated, as well as how to construct them on a scheme of backward induction resulting in the conclusion that the existence of BAYES rules needs essentially weaker assumptions than the existence of BAYES rules.Futhermore, methods are searched to simplify the construction of optimal stopping rules. Some illustrative examples are given.     

Sequential shrinkage estimation of independent normal means with unkown variances

The Paper considers estimation of the p(> 3)-variate normal mean when the variance-covariance matrix is diagonal with unknown diagonal elements. A class of James-Stein estimators is developed, and is compared with the sample mean under an empirical minimax stopping rule. Asymptotic risk expansions are provided for both the sequential sample mean and the sequential James-Stein estimators. It is shown that the James-Stein estimators dominate the sample mean in a certain asymptotic sense.     

On a class of partially sequential two-sample test procedures for multivariate continuous data

In a two-sample testing problem, sometimes one of the sample observations are difficult and/or costlier to collect compared to the other one. Also, it may be the situation that sample observations from one of the populations have been previously collected and for operational advantages we do not wish to collect any more observations from the second population that are necessary for reaching a decision. Partially sequential technique is found to be very useful in such situations. The technique gained its popularity in statistics literature due to its very nature of capitalizing the best aspects of both fixed and sequential procedures. The literature is enriched with various types of partially sequential techniques useable under different types of data set-up. Nonetheless, there is no mention of multivariate data framework in this context, although very common in practice. The present paper aims at developing a class of partially sequential nonparametric test procedures for two-sample multivariate continuous data. For this we suggest a suitable stopping rule adopting inverse sampling technique and propose a class of test statistics based on the samples drawn using the suggested sampling scheme. Various asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are explored. An extensive simulation study is also performed to study the asymptotic performance of the tests. Finally the benefit of the proposed test procedure is demonstrated with an application to a real-life data on liver disease.     

Pivotal Quantities Based on Sequential Data: A Bootstrap Approach

A bootstrap algorithm is provided for obtaining a confidence interval for the mean of a probability distribution when sequential data are considered. For this kind of data the empirical distribution can be biased but its bias is bounded by the coefficient of variation of the stopping rule associated with the sequential procedure. When using this distribution for resampling the validity of the bootstrap approach is established by means of a series expansion of the corresponding pivotal quantity. A simulation study is carried out using Wang and Tsiatis type tests and considering the normal and exponential distributions to generate the data. This study confirms that for moderate coefficients of variation of the stopping rule, the bootstrap method allows adequate confidence intervals for the parameters to be obtained, whichever is the distribution of data.     

The table look-up rule

The table look-up rule problem can be described by the question: what is a good way for the table to represent the decision regions in the N-dimensional measurement space. This paper describes a quickly implementable table look-up rule based on Ashby’s representation of sets in his constraint analysis. A decision region for category c in the N-dimensional measurement space is considered to be the intersection of the inverse projections of the decision regions determined for category c by Bayes rules in smaller dimensional projection spaces. Error bounds for this composite decision rule are derived: any entry in the confusion matrix for the composite decision rule is bounded above by the minimum of that entry taken over all the confusion matrices of the Bayes decision rules in the smaller dimensional projection spaces.

On simulated Gaussian Data, probability of error with the table look-up rule is comparable to the optimum Bayes rule.     

An empirical bayes approach to a variables acceptance sampling plan problem

An empirical Bayes approach to a variables acceptance sampling plan problem is presented and an empirical Bayes rule is developed which is shown to be asymptotically optimal under general conditions. The problem considered is one in which the ratio of the costs of accepting defective items and rejecting non-defective items is specified. Sampling costs are not considered and the size of the sample taken from each lot is fixed and constant. The empirical Bayes estimation of the Bayes rule is shown to require the estimation of a conditional probability. An estimator for conditional probabilities of the form needed is derived and shown to have good asymptotic properties.     

Inference for the software reliability using asymmetric los fimctions:a hierarchical bayes approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a hierarchical Bayes approach and an appropriate loss function to perform a Bayesian analysis of the total number of software failures denoted by N. It is shown that the Bayes procedure is more stable than the maximum likelihood procedure and a stopping rule for debugging the software is suggested via the LIN EX loss function.     

The risks for usual sequential estimates and stopping times of multivariate normal mean for conjugate distribution

The exact formulas of optimal stopping times for usual problems are often difficult to derive. Biekej and Yahav (1965) had provided the large sample approximation known as the asymptotically pointwise optimal (A. P.O.) rule. In Nagao (1997a.b). he has derived the asymptotic formulas for Bayes stopping times for the problems of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution when a covariance matrix is completely unknown and has some structure, respectively. This paper gives the risks for estimate and stopping times which we use in common for some problems. From this result, we find that its increasing amount shows the deficiency of estimate and stopping usually used from the view of the Bayes risk.     

Simulation-based sequential Bayesian design

We consider simulation-based methods for exploration and maximization of expected utility in sequential decision problems. We consider problems which require backward induction with analytically intractable expected utility integrals at each stage. We propose to use forward simulation to approximate the integral expressions, and a reduction of the allowable action space to avoid problems related to an increasing number of possible trajectories in the backward induction. The artificially reduced action space allows strategies to depend on the full history of earlier observations and decisions only indirectly through a low dimensional summary statistic. The proposed rule provides a finite-dimensional approximation to the unrestricted infinite-dimensional optimal decision rule. We illustrate the proposed approach with an application to an optimal stopping problem in a clinical trial.     

Asymptotically Optimal Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Via Predictive Recursion

An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. This article presents a general notion of empirical Bayes asymptotic optimality, and it is shown that PR-based procedures satisfy this property under certain conditions. As an application, the problem of in-season prediction of baseball batting averages is considered. There the PR-based empirical Bayes rule performs well in terms of prediction error and ability to capture the distribution of the latent features.     

Sequential estimation of the mean of a first-order autoregressive process

This paper considers the problem of sequential point estimation, under an appropriate loss function, of the location parameter when the errors form an autoregressive process with unknown scale and autoregressive parameters, A sequential procedure is developed and an asymptotic second order expansion is provided for the difference between expected stopping time and the optimal fixed sample size procedure. Also, the asymptotic normality of the stopping time is proved. Though the procedure Is asymptotically risk efficient, it. Is not clear whether it has bounded regret.     

A note on james-stein and bayes empiricl bayes estimators

In an empirical Bayes decision problem, a simple class of estimators is constructed that dominate the James-Stein

estimator, A prior distribution A is placed on a restricted (normal) class G of priors to produce a Bayes empirical Bayes estimator, The Bayes empirical Bayes estimator is smooth, admissible, and asymptotically optimal. For certain A rate of convergence to minimum Bayes risk is 0(n^-1)uniformly on G. The results of a Monte Carlo study are presented to demonstrate the favorable risk bebhavior of the Bayes estimator In comparison with other competitors including the James-Stein estimator.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

On selection procedures for positive exponential family distributions based on type-I censored data

We investigate the problem of selecting the best population from positive exponential family distributions based on type-I censored data. A Bayes rule is derived and a monotone property of the Bayes selection rule is obtained. Following that property, we propose an early selection rule. Through this early selection rule, one can terminate the experiment on a few populations early and possibly make the final decision before the censoring time. An example is provided in the final part to illustrate the use of the early selection rule.     

On Minimum Distance Estimation in Recurrent Markov Step Processes. I

Consider a Markov step process X=(X_t)_t≥0 whose generator depends on an unknown d -dimensional parameter ϑ. We look at certain empirical measures for recurrent Markov step processes and their a.s. convergence; based on this, we introduce a class of minimum distance estimators. For broad families of sequential observation schemes (at stage n, the trajectory of X is observed up to time S_n, (S_n)_n a sequence of stopping times increasing to ∞), we formulate a stochastic expansion of the suitably rescaled estimation error; for a particular scheme, asymptotic normality is obtained as n →∞. A minimax property under misspecification of the model (in the sense that the true probability law is contiguous to the parametric model but not contained in it) is given.     

A Generalized Bayes Rule for Prediction

In the case of prior knowledge about the unknown parameter, the Bayesian predictive density coincides with the Bayes estimator for the true density in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence, but this is no longer true if we consider another loss function. In this paper we present a generalized Bayes rule to obtain Bayes density estimators with respect to any α-divergence, including the Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Hellinger distance. For curved exponential models, we study the asymptotic behaviour of these predictive densities. We show that, whatever prior we use, the generalized Bayes rule improves (in a non-Bayesian sense) the estimative density corresponding to a bias modification of the maximum likelihood estimator. It gives rise to a correspondence between choosing a prior density for the generalized Bayes rule and fixing a bias for the maximum likelihood estimator in the classical setting. A criterion for comparing and selecting prior densities is also given.     

Empirical bayes approach to bayes sequential estimation: the poisson and bernoulli cases

The problem considered is the Bayes sequential estimation of the mean with quadratic loss and fixed cost per observation. Assume the prior distribution is not completely known. Some empirical Bayes procedures are proposed in the Poisson and Bernoulli cases, and they are shown to be asymptotically non-deficient in the sense of Woodroofe (1981).     

A Bayesian procedure for the sequential estimation of the mean of a negative-binomial distribution

A Bayesian procedure for the sequential estimation of the mean of a negative-binomial distribution is considered. A reasonable sequential stopping rule, based on a one-step look-ahead procedure is derived. The procedure can be applied to estimate the infestation level of insects in a given field crop area.