Free-knot polynomial splines with confidence intervals

Summary.  We construct approximate confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function, using polynomial splines with free-knot locations. The number of knots is determined by generalized cross-validation. The estimates of knot locations and coefficients are obtained through a non-linear least squares solution that corresponds to the maximum likelihood estimate. Confidence intervals are then constructed based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Average coverage probabilities and the accuracy of the estimate are examined via simulation. This includes comparisons between our method and some existing methods such as smoothing spline and variable knots selection as well as a Bayesian version of the variable knots method. Simulation results indicate that our method works well for smooth underlying functions and also reasonably well for discontinuous functions. It also performs well for fairly small sample sizes.     

On the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimates for the polynomial spline regression model with unknown knots and AR(1) errors

Asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients and knot points for the polynomial spline regression models with unknown knots and AR(1) errors have been derived by Chan (1989). Chan showed that under some mild conditions the maximum likelihood estimators, after suitable standardization, asymptotically follow normal distributions as n diverges to infinity. For the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimators, iterative methods must be applied. But this is not easy to implement for the model considered. In this paper, we suggested an alternative method to compute the estimates of the regression parameters and knots. It is shown that the estimates obtained by this method are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates considered by Chan.     

A plug-in the number of knots selector for polynomial spline regression

A plug-in the number of interior knots (NIKs) selector is proposed for polynomial spline estimation in nonparametric regression. The existence and properties of the optimal NIKs for spline regression are established by minimising the weighted mean integrated squared error. We obtain plug-in formulae for the optimal NIKs based on the theoretical results of asymptotic optimality, and develop strategies for choosing the NIKs of the spline estimator. The proposed NIKs selection method is tested on our simulated data with quite satisfactory performance, and is illustrated by analysing a fossil data set.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

Nonparametric density estimation for censored survival data: Regression-spline approach

A method for nonparametric estimation of density based on a randomly censored sample is presented. The density is expressed as a linear combination of cubic M -splines, and the coefficients are determined by pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimation (likelihood is maximized conditionally on data-dependent knots). By using regression splines (small number of knots) it is possible to reduce the estimation problem to a space of low dimension while preserving flexibility, thus striking a compromise between parametric approaches and ordinary nonparametric approaches based on spline smoothing. The number of knots is determined by the minimum AIC. Examples of simulated and real data are presented. Asymptotic theory and the bootstrap indicate that the precision and the accuracy of the estimates are satisfactory.     

Spatially-adaptive Penalties for Spline Fitting

The paper studies spline fitting with a roughness penalty that adapts to spatial heterogeneity in the regression function. The estimates are p th degree piecewise polynomials with p − 1 continuous derivatives. A large and fixed number of knots is used and smoothing is achieved by putting a quadratic penalty on the jumps of the p th derivative at the knots. To be spatially adaptive, the logarithm of the penalty is itself a linear spline but with relatively few knots and with values at the knots chosen to minimize the generalized cross validation (GCV) criterion. This locally-adaptive spline estimator is compared with other spline estimators in the literature such as cubic smoothing splines and knot-selection techniques for least squares regression. Our estimator can be interpreted as an empirical Bayes estimate for a prior allowing spatial heterogeneity. In cases of spatially heterogeneous regression functions, empirical Bayes confidence intervals using this prior achieve better pointwise coverage probabilities than confidence intervals based on a global-penalty parameter. The method is developed first for univariate models and then extended to additive models.     

Free Knot Splines with RJMCMC in Survival Data Analysis

The B-spline representation is a common tool to improve the fitting of smooth nonlinear functions, it offers a fitting as a piecewise polynomial. The regions that define the pieces are separated by a sequence of knots. The main difficulty in this type of modeling is the choice of the number and the locations of these knots. The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm provides a solution to simultaneously select these two parameters by considering the knots as free parameters. This algorithm belongs to the MCMC techniques that allow simulations from target distributions on spaces of varying dimension. The aim of the present investigation is to use this algorithm in the framework of the analysis of survival time, for the Cox model in particular. In fact, the relation between the hazard ratio function and the covariates being assumed to be log-linear, this assumption is too restrictive. Thus, we propose to use the RJMCMC algorithm to model the log hazard ratio function by a B-spline representation with an unknown number of knots at unknown locations. This method is illustrated with two real data sets: the Stanford heart transplant data and lung cancer survival data. Another application of the RJMCMC is selecting the significant covariates, and a simulation study is performed.     

A fast algorithm for univariate log‐concave density estimation

A new fast algorithm for computing the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of a univariate log‐concave density is proposed and studied. It is an extension of the constrained Newton method for nonparametric mixture estimation. In each iteration, the newly extended algorithm includes, if necessary, new knots that are located via a special directional derivative function. The algorithm renews the changes of slope at all knots via a quadratically convergent method and removes the knots at which the changes of slope become zero. Theoretically, the characterisation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate is studied and the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the unique maximum likelihood estimate. Numerical studies show that it outperforms other algorithms that are available in the literature. Applications to some real‐world financial data are also given.     

Additive nonparametric regression with autocorrelated errors

A Bayesian approach is presented for nonparametric estimation of an additive regression model with autocorrelated errors. Each of the potentially non-linear components is modelled as a regression spline using many knots, while the errors are modelled by a high order stationary autoregressive process parameterized in terms of its autocorrelations. The distribution of significant knots and partial autocorrelations is accounted for using subset selection. Our approach also allows the selection of a suitable transformation of the dependent variable. All aspects of the model are estimated simultaneously by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. It is shown empirically that the approach proposed works well on several simulated and real examples.     

Using -splines to test the linearity of partially linear models

The nonparametric component in a partially linear model is estimated by a linear combination of fixed-knot cubic B-splines with a second-order difference penalty on the adjacent B-spline coefficients. The resulting penalized least-squares estimator is used to construct two Wald-type spline-based test statistics for the null hypothesis of the linearity of the nonparametric function. When the number of knots is fixed, the first test statistic asymptotically has the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom, under the null hypothesis. The smoothing parameter is determined by specifying a value for the asymptotically expected value of the test statistic under the null hypothesis. When the number of knots is fixed and under the null hypothesis, the second test statistic asymptotically has a chi-squared distribution with K=q+2 degrees of freedom, where q is the number of knots used for estimation. The power performances of the two proposed tests are investigated via simulation experiments, and the practicality of the proposed methodology is illustrated using a real-life data set.     

A Partially Linear Model with Its Applications

The nonparametric component in a partially linear model is approximated via cubic B-splines with a second-order difference penalty on the adjacent B-spline coefficients to avoid undersmoothing. A Wald-type spline-based test statistic is constructed for the null hypothesis of no effect of a continuous covariate. When the number of knots is fixed, the limiting null distribution of the test statistic is the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom. A real-life dataset is provided to illustrate the practical use of the test statistic.     

Upper Bounds for the Error in Some Interpolation and Extrapolation Designs

This article deals with probabilistic upper bounds for the error in functional estimation defined on some interpolation and extrapolation designs, when the function to estimate is supposed to be analytic. The error pertaining to the estimate may depend on various factors: the frequency of observations on the knots, the position and number of the knots, and also on the error committed when approximating the function through its Taylor expansion. When the number of observations is fixed, then all these parameters are determined by the choice of the design and by the choice estimator of the unknown function.

The scope of the article is therefore to determine a rule for the minimal number of observation required to achieve an upper bound of the error on the estimate with a given maximal probability.     

The use of restricted cubic splines to approximate complex hazard functions in the analysis of time-to-event data: a simulation study

If interest lies in reporting absolute measures of risk from time-to-event data then obtaining an appropriate approximation to the shape of the underlying hazard function is vital. It has previously been shown that restricted cubic splines can be used to approximate complex hazard functions in the context of time-to-event data. The degree of complexity for the spline functions is dictated by the number of knots that are defined. We highlight through the use of a motivating example that complex hazard function shapes are often required when analysing time-to-event data. Through the use of simulation, we show that provided a sufficient number of knots are used, the approximated hazard functions given by restricted cubic splines fit closely to the true function for a range of complex hazard shapes. The simulation results also highlight the insensitivity of the estimated relative effects (hazard ratios) to the correct specification of the baseline hazard.     

On algorithms for ordinary least squares regression spline fitting: A comparative study

Regression spline smoothing is a popular approach for conducting nonparametric regression. An important issue associated with it is the choice of a "theoretically best" set of knots. Different statistical model selection methods, such as Akaike's information criterion and generalized cross-validation, have been applied to derive different "theoretically best" sets of knots. Typically these best knot sets are defined implicitly as the optimizers of some objective functions. Hence another equally important issue concerning regression spline smoothing is how to optimize such objective functions. In this article different numerical algorithms that are designed for carrying out such optimization problems are compared by means of a simulation study. Both the univariate and bivariate smoothing settings will be considered. Based on the simulation results, recommendations for choosing a suitable optimization algorithm under various settings will be provided.     

Asymptotic design and estimation using linear splines

The estimation of a regression function g using linear splines is considered. The integrated mean square error is minimized using choice of estimator, allocation of observations and displacement of knots.     

Threshold knot selection for large-scale spatial models with applications to the Deepwater Horizon disaster

Large spatial datasets are typically modelled through a small set of knot locations; often these locations are specified by the investigator by arbitrary criteria. Existing methods of estimating the locations of knots assume their number is known a priori, or are otherwise computationally intensive. We develop a computationally efficient method of estimating both the location and number of knots for spatial mixed effects models. Our proposed algorithm, Threshold Knot Selection (TKS), estimates knot locations by identifying clusters of large residuals and placing a knot in the centroid of those clusters. We conduct a simulation study showing TKS in relation to several comparable methods of estimating knot locations. Our case study utilizes data of particulate matter concentrations collected during the course of the response and clean-up effort from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.     

Latent single-index models for ordinal data

We propose a latent semi-parametric model for ordinal data in which the single-index model is used to evaluate the effects of the latent covariates on the latent response. We develop a Bayesian sampling-based method with free-knot splines to analyze the proposed model. As the index may vary from minus infinity to plus infinity, the traditional spline that is defined on a finite interval cannot be applied directly to approximate the unknown link function. We consider a modified version to address this problem by first transforming the index into the unit interval via a continuously cumulative distribution function and then constructing the spline bases on the unit interval. To obtain a rapidly convergent algorithm, we make use of the partial collapse and parameter expansion and reparameterization techniques, improve the movement step of Bayesian splines with free knots so that all the knots can be relocated each time instead of only one knot, and design a generalized Gibbs step. We check the performance of the proposed model and estimation method by a simulation study and apply them to analyze a real dataset.     

Approximate regression models and splines

The literature pertaining to splines in regression analysis is reviewed. Spline regression is motivated as a simple extension of the basic polynomial regression model. Using this framework, the concepts of fixed and variable knot spline regression are developed and corresponding inferential procedures are considered. Smoothing splines are also seen to be an extension of polynomial regression and various optimality properties, as well as inferential and diagnostic methods, for these types of splines are discussed.     

Asymptotics of bivariate penalised splines

We study the class of bivariate penalised splines that use tensor product splines and a smoothness penalty. Similar to Claeskens, G., Krivobokova, T., and Opsomer, J.D. [(2009), ‘Asymptotic Properties of Penalised Spline Estimators’, Biometrika, 96(3), 529–544] for the univariate penalised splines, we show that, depending on the number of knots and penalty, the global asymptotic convergence rate of bivariate penalised splines is either similar to that of tensor product regression splines or to that of thin plate splines. In each scenario, the bivariate penalised splines are found rate optimal in the sense of Stone, C.J. [(12, 1982), ‘Optimal Global Rates of Convergence for Nonparametric Regression’, The Annals of Statistics, 10(4), 1040–1053] for a corresponding class of functions with appropriate smoothness. For the scenario where a small number of knots is used, we obtain expressions for the local asymptotic bias and variance and derive the point-wise and uniform asymptotic normality. The theoretical results are applicable to tensor product regression splines.     

Polynomial Spline Estimation for a Generalized Additive Coefficient Model

Abstract.  We study a semiparametric generalized additive coefficient model (GACM), in which linear predictors in the conventional generalized linear models are generalized to unknown functions depending on certain covariates, and approximate the non-parametric functions by using polynomial spline. The asymptotic expansion with optimal rates of convergence for the estimators of the non-parametric part is established. Semiparametric generalized likelihood ratio test is also proposed to check if a non-parametric coefficient can be simplified as a parametric one. A conditional bootstrap version is suggested to approximate the distribution of the test under the null hypothesis. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. We further apply the proposed model and methods to a data set from a human visceral Leishmaniasis study conducted in Brazil from 1994 to 1997. Numerical results outperform the traditional generalized linear model and the proposed GACM is preferable.