Tree-structured generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models

We propose a new generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model with tree-structured multiple thresholds for the estimation of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of a binary tree where every terminal node parameterizes a (local) GARCH model for a partition cell of the predictor space. The fitting of such trees is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations: it is very different from the well-known regression tree procedure which is based on residual sums of squares. Our strategy includes the classical GARCH model as a special case and allows us to increase model complexity in a systematic and flexible way. We derive a consistency result and conclude from simulation and real data analysis that the new method has better predictive potential than other approaches.     

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling for structural change inference in a Bayesian heteroscedastic time series model

We consider a Bayesian deterministically trending dynamic time series model with heteroscedastic error variance, in which there exist multiple structural changes in level, trend and error variance, but the number of change-points and the timings are unknown. For a Bayesian analysis, a truncated Poisson prior and conjugate priors are used for the number of change-points and the distributional parameters, respectively. To identify the best model and estimate the model parameters simultaneously, we propose a new method by sequentially making use of the Gibbs sampler in conjunction with stochastic approximation Monte Carlo simulations, as an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. The numerical results are in favor of our method in terms of the quality of estimates.     

A heteroscedastic measurement error model based on skew and heavy-tailed distributions with known error variances

In this paper, we study inference in a heteroscedastic measurement error model with known error variances. Instead of the normal distribution for the random components, we develop a model that assumes a skew-t distribution for the true covariate and a centred Student's t distribution for the error terms. The proposed model enables to accommodate skewness and heavy-tailedness in the data, while the degrees of freedom of the distributions can be different. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed via an EM-type algorithm. The behaviour of the estimators is also assessed in a simulation study. Finally, the approach is illustrated with a real data set from a methods comparison study in Analytical Chemistry.     

On marginal likelihood inference for the intra-class correlation coefficient

A p-component set of responses have been constructed by a location-scale transformation to a p-component set of error variables, the covariance matrix of the set of error variables being of intra-class covariance structure:all variances being unity, and covariance being equal [IML0001]. A sample of size n has been described as a conditional structural model, conditional on the value of the intra-class correlation coefficient ρ. The conditional technique of structural inference provides the marginal likelihood function of ρ based on the standardized residuals. For the normal case, the marginal likelihood function of ρ is seen to be dependent on the standardized residuals through the sample intra-class correlation coefficient. By the likelihood modulation technique, the nonnull distribution of the sample intra-class correlation coefficient has also been obtained.     

A heteroscedastic structural errors-in-variables model with equation error

It is not uncommon with astrophysical and epidemiological data sets that the variances of the observations are accessible from an analytical treatment of the data collection process. Moreover, in a regression model, heteroscedastic measurement errors and equation errors are common situations when modelling such data. This article deals with the limiting distribution of the maximum-likelihood and method-of-moments estimators for the line parameters of the regression model. We use the delta method to achieve it, making it possible to build joint confidence regions and hypothesis testing. This technique produces closed expressions for the asymptotic covariance matrix of those estimators. In the moment approach we do not assign any distribution for the unobservable covariate while with the maximum-likelihood approach, we assume a normal distribution. We also conduct simulation studies of rejection rates for Wald-type statistics in order to verify the test size and power. Practical applications are reported for a data set produced by the Chandra observatory and also from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.     

Empirical likelihood inference for parameters in a partially linear errors-in-variables model

In this paper, we consider the application of the empirical likelihood method to a partially linear model with measurement errors in the non-parametric part. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood ratio at the true parameters converges to the standard chi-square distribution. Furthermore, we obtain the maximum empirical likelihood estimate of the unknown parameter by using the empirical log-likelihood ratio function, and the resulting estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. Some simulations and an application are conducted to illustrate the proposed method.     

Structural equation models for area health outcomes with model selection

Recent analyses seeking to explain variation in area health outcomes often consider the impact on them of latent measures (i.e. unobserved constructs) of population health risk. The latter are typically obtained by forms of multivariate analysis, with a small set of latent constructs derived from a collection of observed indicators, and a few recent area studies take such constructs to be spatially structured rather than independent over areas. A confirmatory approach is often applicable to the model linking indicators to constructs, based on substantive knowledge of relevant risks for particular diseases or outcomes. In this paper, population constructs relevant to a particular set of health outcomes are derived using an integrated model containing all the manifest variables, namely health outcome variables, as well as indicator variables underlying the latent constructs. A further feature of the approach is the use of variable selection techniques to select significant loadings and factors (especially in terms of effects of constructs on health outcomes), so ensuring parsimonious models are selected. A case study considers suicide mortality and self-harm contrasts in the East of England in relation to three latent constructs: deprivation, fragmentation and urbanicity.     

A non-iterative approach to estimating parameters in a linear structural equation model

The research described herein was motivated by a study of the relationship between the performance of students in senior high schools and at universities in China. A special linear structural equation model is established, in which some parameters are known and both the responses and the covariables are measured with errors. To explore the relationship between the true responses and latent covariables and to estimate the parameters, we suggest a non-iterative estimation approach that can account for the external dependence between the true responses and latent covariables. This approach can also deal with the collinearity problem because the use of dimension-reduction techniques can remove redundant variables. Combining further with the information that some of parameters are given, we can perform estimation for the other unknown parameters. An easily implemented algorithm is provided. A simulation is carried out to provide evidence of the performance of the approach and to compare it with existing methods. The approach is applied to the education example for illustration, and it can be readily extended to more general models.     

Computational approximation of the likelihood ratio for testing the existence of change-points in a heteroscedastic series

In this work, we present a computational method to approximate the occurrence of the change-points in a temporal series consisting of independent and normally distributed observations, with equal mean and two possible variance values. This type of temporal series occurs in the investigation of electric signals associated to rhythmic activity patterns of nerves and muscles of animals, in which the change-points represent the actual moments when the electrical activity passes from a phase of silence to one of activity, or vice versa. We confront the hypothesis that there is no change-point in the temporal series, against the alternative hypothesis that there exists at least one change-point, employing the corresponding likelihood ratio as the test statistic; a computational implementation of the technique of quadratic penalization is employed in order to approximate the quotient of the logarithmic likelihood associated to the set of hypotheses. When the null hypothesis is rejected, the method provides estimations of the localization of the change-points in the temporal series. Moreover, the method proposed in this work employs a posteriori processing in order to avoid the generation of relatively short periods of silence or activity. The method is applied to the determination of change-points in both experimental and synthetic data sets; in either case, the results of our computations are more than satisfactory.     

Pairwise- and marginal-likelihood estimation for the mixed Rasch model with binary data

A marginal–pairwise-likelihood estimation approach is examined in the mixed Rasch model with the binary response and logit link. This method belonging to the broad class of composite likelihood provides estimators with desirable asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality. We study the performance of the proposed methodology when the random effect distribution is misspecified. A simulation study was conducted to compare this approach with the maximum marginal likelihood. The different results are also illustrated with an analysis of the real data set from a quality-of-life study.     

A study of linear model alysis by an error contour emulation

This paper considers the conditional approach to linear models in which the exact theoretical results are unavailable except in terms of multiple integrals. A class of multidimensional error distributions that emulate elongated error distributions is discussed. The appropriate conditional distributions are derived along with several properties of these distributions.     

Simple and accurate inference for the mean of the gamma model

The two-parameter gamma model is widely used in reliability, environmental, medical and other areas of statistics. It has a two-dimensional sufficient statistic, and a two-dimensional parameter which can be taken to describe shape and mean. This makes it closely comparable to the normal model, but it differs substantially in that the exact distribution for the minimal sufficient statistic is not available. Some recently developed asymptotic theory is used to derive an approximation for observed levels of significance and confidence intervals for the mean parameter of the model. The approximation is as easy to apply as first-order methods, and substantially more accurate.     

Empirical likelihood inference in the presence of measurement error

Suppose that several different imperfect instruments and one perfect instrument are used independently to measure some characteristic of a population. The authors consider the problem of combining this information to make statistical inference on parameters of interest, in particular the population mean and cumulative distribution function. They develop maximum empirical likelihood estimators and study their asymptotic properties. They also present simulation results on the finite sample efficiency of these estimators.     

The effect of school resources on pupil attainment: a multilevel simultaneous equation modelling approach

Summary.  Improving educational achievement in UK schools is a priority, and of particular concern is the low achievement of specific groups, such as those from lower socio-economic backgrounds. An obvious question is whether we should be improving the outcomes of these pupils by spending more on their education. The literature on the effect of educational spending on the achievement of pupils has some methodological difficulties, in particular the endogeneity of school resource levels, and the intraschool correlations in pupils' responses. We adopt a multi-level simultaneous equation modelling approach to assess the effect of school resources on pupil attainment at age 14 years. The paper is the first to apply a simultaneous equation model to estimate the effect of school resources on pupils' achievement, using the newly available national pupil database and pupil level annual school census.     

On heteroscedastic hazards regression models: theory and application

A class of non-proportional hazards regression models is considered to have hazard specifications consisting of a power form of cross-effects on the base-line hazard function. The primary goal of these models is to deal with settings in which heterogeneous distribution shapes of survival times may be present in populations characterized by some observable covariates. Although effects of such heterogeneity can be explicitly seen through crossing cumulative hazards phenomena in k -sample problems, they are barely visible in a one-sample regression setting. Hence, heterogeneity of this kind may not be noticed and, more importantly, may result in severely misleading inference. This is because the partial likelihood approach cannot eliminate the unknown cumulative base-line hazard functions in this setting. For coherent statistical inferences, a system of martingale processes is taken as a basis with which, together with the method of sieves, an overidentified estimating equation approach is proposed. A Pearson's χ² type of goodness-of-fit testing statistic is derived as a by-product. An example with data on gastric cancer patients' survival times is analysed.     

Testing for heteroscedasticity in a dynamic simultaneous equation model

This paper generalizes the Lagrange multiplier test for heteroscedasticity to a dynamic simultaneous equation model. A proof ofthe validity of the test is given. Small sample proper- ties of the Lagrange multiplier test and its 'studentized' version, under normal and non-normal errors, are investigated using a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Third-order likelihood-based inference for the log-normal regression model

This paper examines the general third-order theory to the log-normal regression model. The interest parameter is its conditional mean. For inference, traditional first-order approximations need large sample sizes and normal-like distributions. Some specific third-order methods need the explicit forms of the nuisance parameter and ancillary statistic, which are quite complicated. Note that this general third-order theory can be applied to any continuous models with standard asymptotic properties. It only needs the log-likelihood function. With small sample settings, the simulation studies for confidence intervals of the conditional mean illustrate that the general third-order theory is much superior to the traditional first-order methods.     

Bayesian statistical inference of the loglogistic model with interval-censored lifetime data

Interval-censored data arise when a failure time say, T cannot be observed directly but can only be determined to lie in an interval obtained from a series of inspection times. The frequentist approach for analysing interval-censored data has been developed for some time now. It is very common due to unavailability of software in the field of biological, medical and reliability studies to simplify the interval censoring structure of the data into that of a more standard right censoring situation by imputing the midpoints of the censoring intervals. In this research paper, we apply the Bayesian approach by employing Lindley's 1980, and Tierney and Kadane 1986 numerical approximation procedures when the survival data under consideration are interval-censored. The Bayesian approach to interval-censored data has barely been discussed in literature. The essence of this study is to explore and promote the Bayesian methods when the survival data been analysed are is interval-censored. We have considered only a parametric approach by assuming that the survival data follow a loglogistic distribution model. We illustrate the proposed methods with two real data sets. A simulation study is also carried out to compare the performances of the methods.     

A new generalized confidence interval for the among-group variance in the heteroscedastic one-way random effects model

Based on the generalized inference idea, a new kind of generalized confidence intervals is derived for the among-group variance component in the heteroscedastic one-way random effects model. We construct structure equations of all variance components in the model based on their minimal sufficient statistics; meanwhile, the fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ) can be obtained through solving an implicit equation of the parameter of interest. Then, the confidence interval is derived naturally from the FGPQ. Simulation results demonstrate that the new procedure performs very well in terms of both empirical coverage probability and average interval length.