Testing for a change lit the regression matrix of a multivariate linear model

A Bayesian test procedure Is developed to test; the null hypothesis of no change In the regression matrix of a multivariate lin¬ear model against the alternative hypothesis of exactly one change The resulting test is based on the marginal posterior distribution of the change point; To illustrate the test procedure a numerical example using a bivariate regression model is considered.     

Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated poisson regression profiles

The objective of this paper is to study the Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated Poisson profiles where the response values within each profile are autocorrelated. Two charts, the SLRT and the Hotelling's T², are proposed along with an algorithm for parameter estimation. The detecting power of the proposed charts is compared using simulations in terms of the signal probability criterion. The performance of the SLRT method in estimating the change point in the regression parameters is also evaluated. Moreover, a real data example is presented to illustrate the application of the methods.     

Detecting structural change in linear models

Consider a sequence of independent observations which change their marginal distribution at most once somewhere in the sequence and one is not certain where the change has occurred. One would be interested in detecting the change and determining the two distributions which would describe the sequence. On the other hand if no change had occurred, one would want to know the common distribution of the observations. This study develops a Bayesian test for detecting a switch from one linear model to another. The test is based on the marginal posterior mass function of the switch point and the posterior probability of a stable model. This test and an informal sequential procedure of Smith are illustrated with data generated from an unstable linear regression model, which changes the linear relationship between the dependent and independent variables     

Detecting a change in variances

The likelihood ratio test for testing for a change in a sequence of variances of normal populations is derived. The alternative hypothesis considered is of a one-sided nature. For the test, the conservativeness of the Sidak bound is shown and the asymptotic version of the Sidak bound is also constructed. These bound are compared with the Bonferroni bound and the Worsley bound, using the Monte Carlo method. Finally Hsu's data of stock market returns is reanalysed, using the test.     

Homogeneity of variances in normal linear regression with a change point

Two methods for testing the equality of variances in straight lines regression with a change point are considered. One is likelihood ratio test and the other is Bayesian confidence interval, based on the highest posterior density for the ratio of variances, using non-informative priors. Methods are applied to the renal transplant data analyzed by Smith and Cook(1980) and Stephens(1994).     

Testing for a change point in linear regression models

In this paper, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is proposed to locate a change point in the simple linear regression model, as well as in the multiple linear regression model. The method is then applied to a financial data set, and a change point is successfully detected.     

Monotonic change point estimation of generalized linear model-based regression profiles

In this article, a maximum likelihood estimator is derived in the generalized linear model-based regression profiles under monotonic change in Phase II. The performance of the proposed estimator is comprehensively investigated through some special cases, and compared with estimators under step change and drift. The results show that the proposed estimator has better performance in small and medium shifts under different increasing changes. Finally, the applicability of the proposed estimator is illustrated using a real case.     

A generalized likelihood ratio test for monitoring profile data

Profile data emerges when the quality of a product or process is characterized by a functional relationship among (input and output) variables. In this paper, we focus on the case where each profile has one response variable Y, one explanatory variable x, and the functional relationship between these two variables can be rather arbitrary. The basic concept can be applied to a much wider case, however. We propose a general method based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) for monitoring of profile data. The proposed method uses nonparametric regression to estimate the on-line profiles and thus does not require any functional form for the profiles. Both Shewhart-type and EWMA-type control charts are considered. The average run length (ARL) performance of the proposed method is studied. It is shown that the proposed GLRT-based control chart can efficiently detect both location and dispersion shifts of the on-line profiles from the baseline profile. An upper control limit (UCL) corresponding to a desired in-control ARL value is constructed.     

Bayesian prediction of the number of change points in the piecewise linear model

Summary The problem of predicting the number of change points in a piecewise linear model is studied from a Bayesian viewpoint. For a given a priori joint probability functionf _R,C=f_Rf _C/R, whereR is the number of change points andC=C′(R)=(C₁,…,C_R) is the change-point epoch vector, the marginal posterior probability functionf _R.C/Y is obtained, and then used to find predictors forR andC(R).     

Detecting change in a hazard regression model with right-censoring

The hazard function plays an important role in survival analysis and reliability, since it quantifies the instantaneous failure rate of an individual at a given time point t, given that this individual has not failed before t. In some applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed, and it is of interest to detect the location of such a change. In this paper, we consider testing of existence of a change in the parameters of an exponential regression model, based on a sample of right-censored survival times and the corresponding covariates. Likelihood ratio type tests are proposed and non-asymptotic bounds for the type II error probability are obtained. When the tests lead to acceptance of a change, estimators for the location of the change are proposed. Non-asymptotic upper bounds of the underestimation and overestimation probabilities are obtained. A short simulation study illustrates these results.     

Change-point detection in a shape-restricted regression model

A regression model with a possible structural change and with a small number of measurements is considered. A priori information about the shape of the regression function is used to formulate the model as a linear regression model with inequality constraints and a likelihood ratio test for the presence of a change-point is constructed. The exact null distribution of the test statistic is given. Consistency of the test is proved when the noise level goes to zero. Numerical approximations to the powers against various alternatives are given and compared with the powers of the k-linear-r-ahead recursive residuals tests and CUSUM tests. Performance of four different estimators of the change-point is studied in a Monte Carlo experiment. An application of the procedures to some real data is also presented.     

A test for the linearity of the nonparametric part of a semiparametric logistic regression model

A semiparametric logistic regression model is proposed in which its nonparametric component is approximated with fixed-knot cubic B-splines. To assess the linearity of the nonparametric component, we construct a penalized likelihood ratio test statistic. When the number of knots is fixed, the null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be asymptotically the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom. We set the asymptotic null expectation of this test statistic equal to a value to determine the smoothing parameter value. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed test. Its practical use is illustrated with a real-life example.     

Reconstructing the history of forest fire frequency: Identifying hazard rate change points using the bayes information criterion

A problem in model selection, namely the identification of multiple change points for a piece‐wise constant hazard rate, is discussed. A methodology using the Bayes Information Criterion is developed in an overdispersed survival model (with corresponding quasi‐likelihood function). The technique is used to identify changes in the historical frequency of forest fire. It is applied to two datasets derived from time‐since‐fire maps in the Canadian Rockies.     

Statistical inference for varying-coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models with missing data

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate estimations in varying-coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models with covariates missing at random. However, the estimators are often biased due to the existence of measurement errors, the bias-corrected profile least-squares estimator and local liner estimators for unknown parametric and coefficient functions are obtained based on inverse probability weighted method. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators both for the parameter and nonparametric parts are established. Second, we study asymptotic distributions of an empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic and maximum empirical likelihood estimator for the unknown parameter. Based on this, more accurate confidence regions of the unknown parameter can be constructed. The methods are examined through simulation studies and illustrated by a real data analysis.     

An F-type small sample simultaneous test for nested linear regression models

A small sample simultaneous testing method is proposed for nested linear regression model. The methodology is based on the generalized likelihood ratio test which is the large sample simultaneous testing method for general nested models. The proposed test is also used for model identification.     

PCA likelihood ratio test approach for attributed social networks monitoring

Abstract

One of the most important factors in building and changing communication mechanisms in social networks is considering features of the members of social networks. Most of the existing methods in network monitoring don’t consider effects of features in network formation mechanisms and others don’t lead to reliable results when the features abound or when there are correlations among them. In this article, we combined two methods principal component analysis (PCA) and likelihood method to monitor the underlying network model when the features of individuals abound and when some of them have high correlations with each other.     

Partially linear models and their applications to change point detection of chemical process data

In many chemical data sets, the amount of radiation absorbed (absorbance) is related to the concentration of the element in the sample by Lambert–Beer's law. However, this relation changes abruptly when the variable concentration reaches an unknown threshold level, the so-called change point. In the context of analytical chemistry, there are many methods that describe the relationship between absorbance and concentration, but none of them provide inferential procedures to detect change points. In this paper, we propose partially linear models with a change point separating the parametric and nonparametric components. The Schwarz information criterion is used to locate a change point. A back-fitting algorithm is presented to obtain parameter estimates and the penalized Fisher information matrix is obtained to calculate the standard errors of the parameter estimates. To examine the proposed method, we present a simulation study. Finally, we apply the method to data sets from the chemistry area. The partially linear models with a change point developed in this paper are useful supplements to other methods of absorbance–concentration analysis in chemical studies, for example, and in many other practical applications.     

Statistical inferences for single-index models with measurement errors

An important factor in house prices is its location. However, measurement errors arise frequently in the process of observing variables such as the latitude and longitude of the house. The single-index models with measurement errors are used to study the relationship between house location and house price. We obtain the estimators by a SIMEX method based on the local linear method and the estimating equation. To test the significance of the index coefficient and the linearity of the link function, we establish the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) tests for the models. We demonstrate that the asymptotic null distributions of the established GLR tests follow χ2-distributions which are independent of nuisance parameters or functions. Finally, two simulated examples and a real estate valuation data set are given to illustrate the effect of GLR tests.     

Detecting discontinuities in nonparametric regression curves and surfaces

The existence of a discontinuity in a regression function can be inferred by comparing regression estimates based on the data lying on different sides of a point of interest. This idea has been used in earlier research by Hall and Titterington (1992), Müller (1992) and later authors. The use of nonparametric regression allows this to be done without assuming linear or other parametric forms for the continuous part of the underlying regression function. The focus of the present paper is on assessing the evidence for the presence of a discontinuity within a regression function through examination of the standardised differences of ‘left’ and ‘right’ estimators at a variety of covariate values. The calculations for the test are carried out through distributional results on quadratic forms. A graphical method in the form of a reference band to highlight the sources of the evidence for discontinuities is proposed. The methods are also developed for the two covariate case where there are additional issues associated with the presence of a jump location curve. Methods for estimating this curve are also developed. All the techniques, for the one and two covariate situations, are illustrated through applications.     

Detection and estimation of structural change in heavy-tailed sequence

In this paper, bootstrap detection and ratio estimation are proposed to analysis mean change in heavy-tailed distribution. First, the test statistic is constructed into a ratio form on the CUSUM process. Then, the asymptotic distribution of test statistic is obtained and the consistency of the test is proved. To solve the problem that the null distribution of the test statistic contains unknown tail index, we present a bootstrap approximation method to determine the critical values of the null distribution. We also discuss how to estimate change point based on ratio method. The consistency and rate of convergence for the change-point estimator are established. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real data sets. Especially the simulation results of bootstrap test are better than those of another existing method.