Effects of autocorrelation on control chart performance

In this article, we study the capability of the standard control chart for individual observations with fixed control limits to identify special causes reflected as isolated extreme points in the presence of autocorrelation. We consider both the application of standard Shewhart limits and moving-range limits and derive the risks of false positive and false negative when the control chart observations follow a general ARMA(p,q) process.     

The likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in finite mixture models

The authors study the asymptotic behaviour of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing homogeneity in the finite mixture models of a general parametric distribution family. They prove that the limiting distribution of this statistic is the squared supremum of a truncated standard Gaussian process. The autocorrelation function of the Gaussian process is explicitly presented. A re‐sampling procedure is recommended to obtain the asymptotic p‐value. Three kernel functions, normal, binomial and Poisson, are used in a simulation study which illustrates the procedure.     

The effect of autocorrelation on the retrospective X-chart

Quality control chart interpretation is usually based on the assumption that successive observations are independent over time. In this article we show the effect of autocorrelation on the retrospective Shewhart chart for individuals, often referred to as the X-chart, with the control limits based on moving ranges. It is shown that the presence of positive first lag autocorrelation results in an increased number of false alarms from the control chart. Negative first lag autocorrelation can result in unnecessarily wide control limits such that significant shifts in the process mean may go undetected. We use first-order autoregressive and first-order moving average models in our simulation of small samples of autocorrelated data.     

Influence of the sampling interval, decision limit and autocorrelation on the average run length in Cusum charts

This paper shows how the average run length for a one-sided Cusum chart varies as a function of the length of the sampling interval between consecutive observations, the decision limit for the Cusum statistic, and the amount of autocorrelation between successive observations. It is shown that the rate of false alarms can be decreased considerably, without modifying the rate of valid alarms, by decreasing the sampling interval and appropriately increasing the decision interval. It is also shown that this can be done even when the shorter sampling interval induces moderate autocorrelation between successive observations.     

A control chart for COM-Poisson distribution using a modified EWMA statistic

In this paper, a control chart has been developed for the Conway–Maxwell Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution using the modified exponentially weighted moving average statistic. The proposed chart provides an efficient detection of smaller changes in the location parameter of the COM-Poisson distribution. The performance of the proposed control chart has been evaluated by the average and the standard deviation of the run length distribution for various parameters. Better detecting ability has also been compared with the existing control chart using EWMA statistic. Using simulation, we also showed the detecting ability over the traditional EWMA chart.     

Monitoring paper production using a spectral control chart designed to detect in the presence of multiple cycles

In this paper we introduce a spectral control chart that is designed to detect the onset of cyclic behaviour in a process, even in the presence of multiple cycles. This new spectral control chart is based on the periodogram test proposed by Bølviken (1983a, b). While no more difficult to implement than the traditional spectral control based on Fisher's test statistic, this new control chart shows improvement in detecting the presence of compound periodicity, which the chart based on Fisher's test is not designed to handle. This is assessed using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate and compare the average run lengths of several spectral control charts. In addition, the spectral control charts are applied to paper production data, published by Pandit & Wu (1993), in which the stock flow and paper thickness are monitored. The application of the new spectral control chart to the stock flow process detects out-of-control behaviour that is not found using standard control charts. This behaviour, in turn, appears to be related to out-of-control behaviour that is observed in the paper thickness measurements later in the production process.     

Cressie–Read Power-Divergence Statistics for Non-Gaussian Vector Stationary Processes

Abstract.  For a class of vector-valued non-Gaussian stationary processes, we develop the Cressie–Read power-divergence (CR) statistic approach which has been proposed for the i.i.d. case. The CR statistic includes empirical likelihood as a special case. Therefore, by adopting this CR statistic approach, the theory of estimation and testing based on empirical likelihood is greatly extended. We use an extended Whittle likelihood as score function and derive the asymptotic distribution of the CR statistic. We apply this result to estimation of autocorrelation and the AR coefficient, and get narrower confidence intervals than those obtained by existing methods. We also consider the power properties of the test based on asymptotic theory. Under a sequence of contiguous local alternatives, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the CR statistic. The problem of testing autocorrelation is discussed and we introduce some interesting properties of the local power.     

Short run spc based upon the second order dynamic linear model for trend detection

Recently, several new applications of control chart procedures for short production runs have been introduced. Bothe (1989) and Burr (1989) proposed the use of control chart statistics which are obtained by scaling the quality characteristic by target values or process estimates of a location and scale parameter. The performance of these control charts can be significantly affected by the use of incorrect scaling parameters, resulting in either an excessive "false alarm rate," or insensitivity to the detection of moderate shifts in the process. To correct for these deficiencies, Quesenberry (1990, 1991) has developed the Q-Chart which is formed from running process estimates of the sample mean and variance. For the case where both the process mean and variance are unknown, the Q-chaxt statistic is formed from the standard inverse Z-transformation of a t-statistic. Q-charts do not perform correctly, however, in the presence of special cause disturbances at process startup. This has recently been supported by results published by Del Castillo and Montgomery (1992), who recommend the use of an alternative control chart procedure which is based upon a first-order adaptive Kalman filter model Consistent with the recommendations by Castillo and Montgomery, we propose an alternative short run control chart procedure which is based upon the second order dynamic linear model (DLM). The control chart is shown to be useful for the early detection of unwanted process trends. Model and control chart parameters are updated sequentially in a Bayesian estimation framework, providing the greatest degree of flexibility in the level of prior information which is incorporated into the model. The result is a weighted moving average control chart statistic which can be used to provide running estimates of process capability. The average run length performance of the control chart is compared to the optimal performance of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart, as reported by Gan (1991). Using a simulation approach, the second order DLM control chart is shown to provide better overall performance than the EWMA for short production run applications     

ASYMPTOTIC TESTS FOR GROWTH CURVE MODELS WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE ERRORS

This paper presents the limit distribution (as the number of time points increase) for the score vector of a growth curve model assuming both stationary and explosive autoregressive (A.R.) errors. Limit distributions of the score statistic and the likelihood-ratio statistic for testing composite hypotheses about the regression parameters of several growth curves, when the autocorrelation parameters are treated as nuisance parameters, are presented.     

A mixed GWMA–CUSUM control chart for monitoring the process mean

The memory-type control charts are widely used in the process and service industries for monitoring the production processes. The reason is their sensitivity to quickly react against the small process disturbances. Recently, a new cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart has been proposed that uses the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic, called the EWMA–CUSUM chart. Similarly, in order to further enhance the sensitivity of the EWMA–CUSUM chart, we propose a new CUSUM chart using the generally weighted moving average (GWMA) statistic, called the GWMA–CUSUM chart, for efficiently monitoring the process mean. The GWMA–CUSUM chart encompasses the existing CUSUM and EWMA–CUSUM charts. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the run length profiles of the GWMA–CUSUM chart. Based on comprehensive run length comparisons, it turns out that the GWMA–CUSUM chart performs substantially better than the CUSUM, EWMA, GWMA, and EWMA–CUSUM charts when detecting small shifts in the process mean. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the implementation and working of the EWMA–CUSUM and GWMA–CUSUM charts.     

A new approach for monitoring process variance

ABSTRACT

Control charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having non-normal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used in such circumstances. In this paper, we propose a new variance chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process variance shifts. We explore the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculate the average run lengths (ARLs) of the proposed variance chart. Furthermore, an arcsine transformed exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is proposed because the ARLs of this modified chart are more intuitive and reasonable than those of the variance chart. We compare the out-of-control variance detection performance of the proposed variance chart with that of the non-parametric Mood variance (NP-M) chart with runs rules, developed by Zombade and Ghute [Nonparametric control chart for variability using runs rules. Experiment. 2014;24(4):1683–1691], and the nonparametric likelihood ratio-based distribution-free exponential weighted moving average (NLE) chart and the combination of traditional exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) mean and EWMA variance (CEW) control chart proposed by Zou and Tsung [Likelihood ratio-based distribution-free EWMA control charts. J Qual Technol. 2010;42(2):174–196] by considering cases in which the critical quality characteristic has a normal, a double exponential or a uniform distribution. Comparison results showed that the proposed chart performs better than the NP-M with runs rules, and the NLE and CEW control charts. A numerical example of service times with a right-skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch in Taiwan is used to illustrate the application of the proposed variance chart and of the arcsine transformed EWMA chart and to compare them with three existing variance (or standard deviation) charts. The proposed charts show better detection performance than those three existing variance charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process variance.     

A GOODNESS OF FIT TEST BASED ON THE LINKED LINE CHART1

In this paper, we propose a graphical representation of data and a test statistic based on it for testing the goodness of fit of a completely specified null distribution. The graph is constructed as a linked line chart given by vectors which reflect the pattern of order statistics. The test statistic is defined as an area defined by our chart and its asymptotic distribution is derived under the null hypothesis. Computer simulations performed to study the power properties of our chart indicate that the test is powerful for scale alternatives. Furthermore, it is shown that our test is closely related to the Watson test.     

Monitoring the mean of autocorrelated observations with one generally weighted moving average control chart

Traditionally, using a control chart to monitor a process assumes that process observations are normally and independently distributed. In fact, for many processes, products are either connected or autocorrelated and, consequently, obtained observations are autocorrelative rather than independent. In this scenario, applying an independence assumption instead of autocorrelation for process monitoring is unsuitable. This study examines a generally weighted moving average (GWMA) with a time-varying control chart for monitoring the mean of a process based on autocorrelated observations from a first-order autoregressive process (AR(1)) with random error. Simulation is utilized to evaluate the average run length (ARL) of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and GWMA control charts. Numerous comparisons of ARLs indicate that the GWMA control chart requires less time to detect various shifts at low levels of autocorrelation than those at high levels of autocorrelation. The GWMA control chart is more sensitive than the EWMA control chart for detecting small shifts in a process mean.     

Monitoring Variability and Analyzing Multivariate Autocorrelated Processes

Traditional multivariate quality control charts are based on independent observations. In this paper, we explain how to extend univariate residual charts to multivariate cases and how to combine the traditional statistical process control (SPC) approaches to monitor changes in process variability in a dynamic environment. We propose using Alt's (1984) W chart on vector autoregressive (VAR) residuals to monitor the variability for multivariate processes in the presence of autocorrelation. We study examples jointly using the Hotelling T² chart on VAR residuals, the W chart, and the Portmanteau test to diagnose the types of shift in process parameters.     

An Improved Distribution-free EWMA Mean Chart

Control charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having nonnormal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used here. In this article, we propose an improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process mean shift. We explored the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculated the average run lengths of the proposed asymmetric EWMA mean chart. We recommend the proposed improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart because the average run lengths of the modified charts are more accurate and reasonable than those of the five existed mean charts. A numerical example of service times with a right skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch is used to illustrate the application of the improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart and to compare it with the five existing mean charts. The proposed chart showed better detection performance than those of the five existing mean charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process mean.     

Parameter optimization for a modified MEWMA control chart based on a PSO algorithm

The standard multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart with a constant smoothing parameter or diagonal matrix is based on the assumption that the samples obey standard normal distribution. With improvements in manufacturing quality and product complexity, there is always correlativity among quality characteristics, and samples will not always obey standard normal distribution. Considering the correlativity among quality characteristics, a new modified general MEWMA (GEWMA) control chart is proposed, and its performance is analyzed. Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, a smoothing matrix optimized under certain conditions is selected and applied to a sample analysis. As a result of the parameter combination chosen by PSO, the statistic function of the GEWMA control chart is better than that of the full matrix MEWMA (FEWMA) control chart.     

An exponentially weighted moving average chart controlling false discovery rate

A new control chart is developed by using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistics and a multiple testing procedure for controlling false discovery rate. The multiple testing procedure considers not only the current EWMA statistic, but also a given number of previous statistics at the same time. Numerical simulations are accomplished to evaluate the performance of the proposed control chart in terms of the average run length and the conditional expected delay. The results are compared with those of the existing control charts including the X-bar chart, EWMA, and cumulative sum control charts. Case studies with real data-sets are also presented.     

The Synthetic Mean Square Error Control Chart

A synthetic mean square error (MSE) control chart is presented in this study for monitoring the changes in the mean and standard deviation of a normally distributed process. The synthetic MSE control chart is a combination of the standard MSE control chart and the conforming run length (CRL) control chart. From the numerical comparisons, the synthetic MSE control chart is always more efficient than the standard MSE control chart in detecting shifts in the process mean and standard deviation. The synthetic MSE chart also performs better than the exponentially weighted moving average-semicircle (EWMA-SC) chart, except for some cases where the process mean shifts are small.     

Profile Monitoring Using Nonparametric Bootstrap T 2 Control Chart

In certain statistical process control applications, performance of a product or process can be monitored effectively using a linear profile or a linear relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables. In this article, we design a nonparametric bootstrap control chart for monitoring simple linear profiles based on T ² statistic. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method in phase II. The average and standard deviation of the run length under different shifts in the intercept, slope, and standard deviation are considered as the performance measures. Simulation results show that the performance of the proposed bootstrap control chart improves as the size of the available data increases.