Some weighted mixed portmanteau tests for diagnostic checking in linear time series models

The popular diagnostic checking methods in linear time series models are portmanteau tests based on either residual autocorrelation functions (acf) or partial autocorrelation functions (pacf). In this paper, we device some new weighted mixed portmanteau tests by appropriately combining individual tests based on both acf and pacf. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such weighted mixed portmanteau statistics and study their size and power. It is found that the weighted mixed tests outperform when higher order ARMA models are fitted and diagnostic checks are performed via testing lack of residual autocorrelations. Simulation results suggest to use the proposed tests as complementary to those classical tests found in literature. An illustrative application is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the mixed test.     

A simple diagnostic method of outlier detection for stationary Gaussian time series

In this paper we present a "model free' method of outlier detection for Gaussian time series by using the autocorrelation structure of the time series. We also present a graphic diagnostic method in order to distinguish an additive outlier (AO) from an innovation outlier (IO). The test statistic for detecting the outlier has a χ ² distribution with one degree of freedom. We show that this method works well when the time series contain either one type of the outliers or both additive and innovation type outliers, and this method has the advantage that no time series model needs to be estimated from the data. Simulation evidence shows that different types of outliers can be graphically distinguished by using the techniques proposed.     

On the distribution of linear combinations of the components of a Dirichlet random vector

On making use of a result of Imhof, an integral representation of the distribution function of linear combinations of the components of a Dirichlet random vector is obtained. In fact, the distributions of several statistics such as Moran and Geary's indices, the Cliff‐Ord statistic for spatial correlation, the sample coefficient of determination, F‐ratios and the sample autocorrelation coefficient can be similarly determined. Linear combinations of the components of Dirichlet random vectors also turn out to be a key component in a decomposition of quadratic forms in spherically symmetric random vectors. An application involving the sample spectrum associated with series generated by ARMA processes is discussed.     

Identification of Periodic Moving-Average Models

Abstract

ARMA models with seasonally-varying parameters and orders, known as periodic ARMA (PARMA) models, have found wide applications in modeling of seasonal processes. This article considers the identification of orders of periodic MA (PMA) models. The identification is based on the cut-off property of the periodic autocorrelation function (PeACF). We derive an explicit expression for the asymptotic variance of the sample PeACF to be used in establishing its bands. A simulated example is also provided which agrees well with the theoretical results.     

Comment on “ estimating systems of trending variables”: estimating pushing trends and pulling equilibria

This paper is a comment on Soren Johansen's (1994) paper on estimating systems of trending variables. The pedagogical and diagnostic value of using univariate time series methods is emphasized together with the use of small scale experiments that give insight into the sensitivity of unit root test procedures to misspecification of the deterministic components. The test statistics used in the likelihood approach advocated by Johansen are compared with several other test statistics, in particular, those of Box and Tiao (1977) and Stock and Vatson (1988). We also compare the corresponding methods to estimate pulling equilibria. We present the outcomes of two Zlonte Carlo experiments to illustrate some points.     

Inference for Local Autocorrelations in Locally Stationary Models

For nonstationary processes, the time-varying correlation structure provides useful insights into the underlying model dynamics. We study estimation and inferences for local autocorrelation process in locally stationary time series. Our constructed simultaneous confidence band can be used to address important hypothesis testing problems, such as whether the local autocorrelation process is indeed time-varying and whether the local autocorrelation is zero. In particular, our result provides an important generalization of the R function acf() to locally stationary Gaussian processes. Simulation studies and two empirical applications are developed. For the global temperature series, we find that the local autocorrelations are time-varying and have a “V” shape during 1910–1960. For the S&P 500 index, we conclude that the returns satisfy the efficient-market hypothesis whereas the magnitudes of returns show significant local autocorrelations.     

On the relationship between levinson recursion and the r and s arrays for arma model identification

Motivated by the papers of Woodward and Gray (1979) and Gray, Kelly and McIntire (1978) on the R and S array approach to ARMA modeling, the authors show that the R and S array algorithm is completely equivalent to Levinson recursion. Since entries in the R and S array can be computed by either algorithm, the equivalence provides greater insight into the R and S methodology as well as its links to Akaike's AIC or FPE. Numerical simulations serve to highlight the differences between the various approaches as well as illustrate the problems associated with exact methods. The K and S array approach is shown to be an effective procedure for determining ARMA model orders.     

Measuring serial dependence in categorical time series

The analysis of time-indexed categorical data is important in many fields, e.g., in telecommunication network monitoring, manufacturing process control, ecology, etc. Primary interest is in detecting and measuring serial associations and dependencies in such data. For cardinal time series analysis, autocorrelation is a convenient and informative measure of serial association. Yet, for categorical time series analysis an analogous convenient measure and corresponding concepts of weak stationarity have not been provided. For two categorical variables, several ways of measuring association have been suggested. This paper reviews such measures and investigates their properties in a serial context. We discuss concepts of weak stationarity of a categorical time series, in particular of stationarity in association measures. Serial association and weak stationarity are studied in the class of discrete ARMA processes introduced by Jacobs and Lewis (J. Time Ser. Anal. 4(1):19–36, 1983). An intrinsic feature of a time series is that, typically, adjacent observations are dependent. The nature of this dependence among observations of a time series is of considerable practical interest. Time series analysis is concerned with techniques for the analysis of this dependence. (Box et al. 1994p. 1)     

Maximum studentized score tests for the detection of outliers in time series regression models

Efficient score tests exist among others, for testing the presence of additive and/or innovative outliers that are the result of the shifted mean of the error process under the regression model. A sample influence function of autocorrelation-based diagnostic technique also exists for the detection of outliers that are the result of the shifted autocorrelations. The later diagnostic technique is however not useful if the outlying observation does not affect the autocorrelation structure but is generated due to an inflation in the variance of the error process under the regression model. In this paper, we develop a unified maximum studentized type test which is applicable for testing the additive and innovative outliers as well as variance shifted outliers that may or may not affect the autocorrelation structure of the outlier free time series observations. Since the computation of the p-values for the maximum studentized type test is not easy in general, we propose a Satterthwaite type approximation based on suitable doubly non-central F-distributions for finding such p-values [F.E. Satterthwaite, An approximate distribution of estimates of variance components, Biometrics 2 (1946), pp. 110–114]. The approximations are evaluated through a simulation study, for example, for the detection of additive and innovative outliers as well as variance shifted outliers that do not affect the autocorrelation structure of the outlier free time series observations. Some simulation results on model misspecification effects on outlier detection are also provided.     

On the asymptotic distribution of a simple unit root test for trending and breaking series

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic distribution of Popp's (2008) innovational outlier unit root test for trending series with a break. The results of Zivot and Andrews (1992) are applied to provide the limiting results of these new test statistics. We tabulate their asymptotic and finite sample critical values, and illustrate the use of the new statistics with an application to the unemployment rate series for 23 OECD countries.     

An investigation of lag identification tools for vector nonlinear time series

Exploratory methods for determining appropriate lagged vsrlables in a vector nonlinear time series model are investigated. The first is a multivariate extension of the R statistic considered by Granger and Lin (1994), which is based on an estimate of the mutual information criterion. The second method uses Kendall's ρ and partial ρ statistics for lag determination. The methods provide nonlinear analogues of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation matrices for a vector time series. Simulation studies indicate that the R statistic reliabiy identifies appropriate lagged nonlinear moving average terms in a vector time series, while Kendall's ρ and partial ρ statistics have some power in identifying appropirate lagged nonlinear moving average and autoregressive terms, respectively, when the nonlinear relationship between lagged variables is monotonic. For illustration, the methods are applied to set of annual temperature and tree ring measurements at Campito Mountain In California.     

Simple correlated arma processes

The generalization of the simple correlated autoregressive processes introduced by RISAGEE ( 1980, 1981 ) is presented in the paper. The correlation structure of the model is investigated for the purpose of its identification. Various methods of estimation are discussed. Verification of the model is based on the portmanteau statistics whose behaviour is derived using the results for the simple correlated autoregressive processes and the prin¬ciple 0f Box and PIEBCE concerning the relation of estimated residual correlations in auto-regressive and ARMA models.     

A Spectral Estimator of Arma Parameters from Thresholded Data

We consider computationally-fast methods for estimating parameters in ARMA processes from binary time series data, obtained by thresholding the latent ARMA process. All methods involve matching estimated and expected autocorrelations of the binary series. In particular, we focus on the spectral representation of the likelihood of an ARMA process and derive a restricted form of this likelihood, which uses correlations at only the first few lags. We contrast these methods with an efficient but computationally-intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. In a simulation study we show that, for a range of ARMA processes, the spectral method is more efficient than variants of least squares and much faster than MCMC. We illustrate by fitting an ARMA(2,1) model to a binary time series of cow feeding data.     

Optimal window width choice in spectral density estimation

This paper deals with optimal window width choice in on-parametric lag or spectral window estimation of the spectral density of a stationary zero-mean process. Several approaches are reviewed: cross-validation-based methods as described by Hurvich(1985) BelträHo and Bloomfield (1987) and Hurvich and Belträo (1990); an iterative pro-cedure developed by Bühlmann (1996); and a bootstrap approach followed by Franke and Hardle (1992). These methods are compared in terms of the mean square error,the mean square percentage error, and a third measure of the istance between the true spectral density and its estimate. The comparison is based on a simulation study, the simulated processes being in he class of ARMA (5,5) processes. On the basis of simu-lation evidence we suggest to use a slightly modified version of Biihlmann's (1996)iterative method. This paper also makes a minor correction of the bootstrap criterion by Franke and Härdle (1992).     

Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey

The analysis of time series of counts is an emerging field of science. To obtain an ARMA-like autocorrelation structure, many models make use of thinning operations to adapt the ARMA recursion to the integer-valued case. Most popular among these probabilistic operations is the concept of binomial thinning, leading to the class of INARMA models. These models are proved to be useful, especially for processes of Poisson counts, but may lead to difficulties in the case of different count distributions. Therefore, several alternative thinning concepts have been developed. This article reviews such thinning operations and shows how they are successfully applied to define integer-valued ARMA models.     

Time series analysis of categorical data using auto-odds ratio function

In this paper, we consider the auto-odds ratio function (AORF) as a measure of serial association for a stationary time series process of categorical data at two different time points. Numerical measures such as the autocorrelation function (ACF) have no meaningful interpretation, unless the time series data are numerical. Instead, we use the AORF as a measure of association to study the serial dependency of the categorical time series for both ordinal and nominal categories. Biswas and Song [Discrete-valued ARMA processes. Stat Probab Lett. 2009;79(17):1884–1889] provided some results on this measure for Pegram's operator-based AR(1) process with binary responses. Here, we extend this measure to more general set-ups, i.e. for AR(p) and MA(q) processes and for a general number of categories. We discuss how this method can effectively be used in parameter estimation and model selection. Following Weiß [Empirical measures of signed serial dependence in categorical time series. J Stat Comput Simul. 2011;81(4):411–429], we derive the large sample distribution of the estimator of the AORF under independent and identically distributed (iid) set-up. Some simulation results and two categorical data examples (one is ordinal and other nominal) are presented to illustrate the proposed method.     

A Comparison of Multiple Outlier Detection Methods for Regression Data

The problem of outliers in statistical data has attracted many researchers for a long time. Consequently, numerous outlier detection methods have been proposed in the statistical literature. However, no consensus has emerged as to which method is uniformly better than the others or which one is recommended for use in practical situations. In this article, we perform an extensive comparative Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the performance of the multiple outlier detection methods that are either recently proposed or frequently cited in the outlier detection literature. Our simulation experiments include a wide variety of realistic and challenging regression scenarios. We give recommendations on which method is superior to others under what conditions.     

Parameter Estimation for a Bidimensional Partially Observed Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process with Biological Application

Abstract. We consider a bidimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to describe the tissue microvascularization in anti‐cancer therapy. Data are discrete, partial and noisy observations of this stochastic differential equation (SDE). Our aim is to estimate the SDE parameters. We use the main advantage of a one‐dimensional observation to obtain an easy way to compute the exact likelihood using the Kalman filter recursion, which allows to implement an easy numerical maximization of the likelihood. Furthermore, we establish the link between the observations and an ARMA process and we deduce the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. We show that this ARMA property can be generalized to a higher dimensional underlying Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion. We compare this estimator with the one obtained by the well‐known expectation maximization algorithm on simulated data. Our estimation methods can be directly applied to other biological contexts such as drug pharmacokinetics or hormone secretions.     

A wavelet-based approach to the analysis and modelling of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence: the case of Southeast Europe

This paper demonstrates the utilization of wavelet-based tools for the analysis and prediction of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence (LRD). Commonly emerging markets' stock returns are characterized by LRD. Therefore, we track the LRD evolvement for the return series of six Southeast European stock indices through the application of a wavelet-based semi-parametric method. We further engage the á trous wavelet transform in order to extract deeper knowledge on the returns term structure and utilize it for prediction purposes. In particular, a multiscale autoregressive (MAR) model is fitted and its out-of-sample forecast performance is benchmarked to that of ARMA. Additionally, a data-driven MAR feature selection procedure is outlined. We find that the wavelet-based method captures adequately LRD dynamics both in calm as well as in turmoil periods detecting the presence of transitional changes. At the same time, the MAR model handles with the complicated autocorrelation structure implied by the LRD in a parsimonious way achieving better performance.     

On the effect of correlation and unequal variances in detecting a spurious observation

Srivastava (1980) has shown that Grubbs's (1950) test for a univariate outlier is robust against the effect of equicorrelation. In this note we extend Srivastava's result by giving a more general covariance structure, which relaxes both the covariance structure and the assumption of equal variances. We also show that under the more general covariance structure, the power of Grubbs's test, as well as the significance level, is identical to the independently and identically distributed case.