THE EFFECTS OF CORRELATION AMONG OBSERVATIONS ON THE ACCURACY OF APPROXIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEAN BY ITS ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION1

In this paper, we investigate the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of approximating the distribution of sample mean by its asymptotic distribution. The accuracy is investigated by the Berry-Esseen bound (BEB), which gives an upper bound on the error of approximation of the distribution function of the sample mean from its asymptotic distribution for independent observations. For a given sample size (n₀) the BEB is obtained when the observations are independent. Let this be BEB. We then find the sample size (n_*) required to have BEB below BEB₀, when the observations are dependent. Comparison of n_* with n₀ reveals the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution as an approximation. It is shown that the effects of correlation among observations are not appreciable if the correlation is moderate to small but it can be severe for extreme correlations.     

The limiting distribution of the least-squares estimator in nearly integrated seasonal models

We consider the least-squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a nearly integrated seasonal model. Building on the study by Chan (1989), who obtained the limiting distribution, we derive a closed-form expression for the appropriate limiting joint moment generating function. We use this function to tabulate percentage points of the asymptotic distribution for various seasonal periods via numerical integration. The results are extended by deriving a stochastic asymptotic expansion to order O_p(T^-l), whose percentage points are also obtained by numerically integrating the appropriate limiting joint moment generating function. The adequacy of the approximation to the finite-sample distribution is discussed.     

On a new transformation to normality

A Gaussian approximation to the distribution of the nonnegative random variable Y is developed using the Wilson and Hilferty (1931) approach. This approximation uses the symmetrizing transformation ((Y + b)/k₁)^h where k₁ is the first moment of Y and h and b are determined from the first three cumulants of Y. The approximation is illustrated in the case which Y is a non-central chi-square, where numerical evaluations indicate that the new transformation is an improvement over existing ones, especially for small values of k₁.     

The null distribution of multivariate kurtosis

The paper introduces a x²-approximation to multivariate kurtosis b_2,punder normality. It requires calculating the third moment of b_2,pwhich is obtained. We compare the approximation with simulated percentage points and the normal approximation, and find it to be adequate for p=l and 2. For p=3, the simple average of this estimate and the normal approximation is found to be generally superior to either approximation on its own. For p=4, the normal approximation is best for non-extreme values of ∝     

Two Wilson–Hilferty type approximations for the null distribution of the Blum,Kiefer and Rosenblatt test of bivariate independence

The Blum et al. (Ann. Math. Statist. 32 (1961) 485) test of bivariate independence, an asymptotic equivalent of Hoeffding's (Ann. Math. Statist. 19 (1948) 546) test, is consistent against all dependence alternatives. A concise tabulation of a well-considered approximation for the asymptotic percentiles of its null distribution is given in Blum et al. and a more complete selection of Monte Carlo percentiles, for samples of size 5 and larger, appears in Mudholkar and Wilding (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 52 (2003) 1). However, neither tabulation is adequate for estimating p-values of the test. In this note we use a moment based analogue of the classical Wilson–Hilferty transformation to obtain two transformations of type T_n=(nB_n)^h_n. The transformations T_n are then used to construct and compare a Gaussian and a scaled chi-square approximation for the null distribution of nB_n. Both approximations have excellent accuracy, but the Gaussian approximation is more convenient because of its portability.     

A closer examination on some parametric alternatives to the ANOVA F-test

In experiments, the classical (ANOVA) F-test is often used to test the omnibus null-hypothesis μ₁ = μ₂ ... = μ _j = ... = μ _n (all n population means are equal) in a one-way ANOVA design, even when one or more basic assumptions are being violated. In the first part of this article, we will briefly discuss the consequences of the different types of violations of the basic assumptions (dependent measurements, non-normality, heteroscedasticity) on the validity of the F-test. Secondly, we will present a simulation experiment, designed to compare the type I-error and power properties of both the F-test and some of its parametric adaptations: the Brown & Forsythe F^*-test and Welch’s V_w-test. It is concluded that the Welch V_w-test offers acceptable control over the type I-error rate in combination with (very) high power in most of the experimental conditions. Therefore, its use is highly recommended when one or more basic assumptions are being violated. In general, the use of the Brown & Forsythe F^*-test cannot be recommended on power considerations unless the design is balanced and the homoscedasticity assumption holds.     

Tests and confidence intervals for the shape parameter of a gamma distribution

Inference based on the Central Limit Theorem has only first order accuracy. We give tests and confidence intervals (CIs) of second orderaccuracy for the shape parameter ρ of a gamma distribution for both the unscaled and scaled cases.

Tests and CIs based on moment and cumulant estimates are considered as well as those based on the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE).

For the unscaled case the MLE is the moment estimate of order zero; the most efficient moment estimate of integral order is the sample mean, having asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) .61 when ρ= 1.

For the scaled case the most efficient moment estimate is a functionof the mean and variance. Its ARE is .39 when ρ = 1.

Our motivation for constructing these tests of ρ = 1 and CIs forρ is to provide a simple and convenient method for testing whether a distribution is exponential in situations such as rainfall models where such an assumption is commonly made.     

A NEW APPROXIMATION FOR FISHER'S Z

As the sample size increases, the coefficient of skewness of the Fisher's transformation z= tanh^-1r, of the correlation coefficient decreases much more rapidly than the excess of its kurtosis. Hence, the distribution of standardized z can be approximated more accurately in terms of the t distribution with matching kurtosis than by the unit normal distribution. This t distribution can, in turn be subjected to Wallace's approximation resulting in a new normal approximation for the Fisher's z transform. This approximation, which can be used to estimate the probabilities, as well as the percentiles, compares favorably in both accuracy and simplicity, with the two best earlier approximations, namely, those due to Ruben (1966) and Kraemer (1974). Fisher (1921) suggested approximating distribution of the variance stabilizing transform z=(1/2) log ((1 +r)/(1r)) of the correlation coefficient r by the normal distribution with mean = (1/2) log ((1 + p)/(lp)) and variance =l/(n3). This approximation is generally recognized as being remarkably accurate when ||Gr| is moderate but not so accurate when ||Gr| is large, even when n is not small (David (1938)). Among various alternatives to Fisher's approximation, the normalizing transformation due to Ruben (1966) and a t approximation due to Kraemer (1973), are interesting on the grounds of novelty, accuracy and/or aesthetics. If r?= r/√ (1r²) and r?|Gr = |Gr/√(1|Gr²), then Ruben (1966) showed that (1) g_n (r,|Gr) ={(2n5)/2}^1/2r?r{(2n3)/2}^1/2r?|GR, {1 + (1/2)(r?r²+r?|Gr²)}^1/2 is approximately unit normal. Kraemer (1973) suggests approximating (2) t_n (r, |Gr) = (r|GR¹) √ (n2), √(11r²) √(1|Gr²) by a Student's t variable with (n2) degrees of freedom, where after considering various valid choices for |Gr¹ she recommends taking |Gr¹= |Gr*, the median of r given n and |Gr.     

Further Results on the Limiting Distribution of GMM Sample Moment Conditions

In this article, we examine the limiting behavior of generalized method of moments (GMM) sample moment conditions and point out an important discontinuity that arises in their asymptotic distribution. We show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in the asymptotic normal distribution is T-consistent and has a nonstandard limiting distribution. We derive the appropriate asymptotic (weighted chi-squared) distribution when this degeneracy occurs and show how to conduct asymptotically valid statistical inference. We also propose a new rank test that provides guidance on which (standard or nonstandard) asymptotic framework should be used for inference. The finite-sample properties of the proposed asymptotic approximation are demonstrated using simulated data from some popular asset pricing models.     

Empirical power comparisons of two mrpp rank tests

Simulated powers of the MRPP two-sample rank test statistic ?₁- are compared with the powers of the MRPP test statistic ?₂(the two-sided Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test) for large samples from several underlying populations. Powers are obtained using two approximate distributions of ?₁ involving three and four moments

respectively, The use of the fourth moment indicates that an approximation to the null distribution of ? based on four moments can perform better     

Simulation-assisted saddlepoint approximation

A general saddlepoint/Monte Carlo method to approximate (conditional) multivariate probabilities is presented. This method requires a tractable joint moment generating function (m.g.f.), but does not require a tractable distribution or density. The method is easy to program and has a third-order accuracy with respect to increasing sample size in contrast to standard asymptotic approximations which are typically only accurate to the first order.

The method is most easily described in the context of a continuous regular exponential family. Here, inferences can be formulated as probabilities with respect to the joint density of the sufficient statistics or the conditional density of some sufficient statistics given the others. Analytical expressions for these densities are not generally available, and it is often not possible to simulate exactly from the conditional distributions to obtain a direct Monte Carlo approximation of the required integral. A solution to the first of these problems is to replace the intractable density by a highly accurate saddlepoint approximation. The second problem can be addressed via importance sampling, that is, an indirect Monte Carlo approximation involving simulation from a crude approximation to the true density. Asymptotic normality of the sufficient statistics suggests an obvious candidate for an importance distribution.

The more general problem considers the computation of a joint probability for a subvector of random T, given its complementary subvector, when its distribution is intractable, but its joint m.g.f. is computable. For such settings, the distribution may be tilted, maintaining T as the sufficient statistic. Within this tilted family, the computation of such multivariate probabilities proceeds as described for the exponential family setting.     

Normality testing for a long-memory sequence using the empirical moment generating function

Moment generating functions and more generally, integral transforms for goodness-of-fit tests have been in use in the last several decades. Given a set of observations, the empirical transforms are easy to compute, being simply a sample mean, and due to uniqueness properties, these functions can be used for goodness-of-fit tests. This paper focuses on time series observations from a stationary process for which the moment generating function exists and the correlations have long-memory. For long-memory processes, the infinite sum of the correlations diverges and the realizations tend to have spurious trend like patterns where there may be none. Our aim is to use the empirical moment generating function to test the null hypothesis that the marginal distribution is Gaussian. We provide a simple proof of a central limit theorem using ideas from Gaussian subordination models (Taqqu, 1975) and derive critical regions for a graphical test of normality, namely the T₃-plot ( Ghosh, 1996). Some simulated and real data examples are used for illustration.     

A robust process capability index

The existing process capability indices (PCI's) assume that the distribution of the process being investigated is normal. For non-normal distributions, PCI's become unreliable in that PCI's may indicate the process is capable when in fact it is not. In this paper, we propose a new index which can be applied to any distribution. The proposed indexC_f:, is directly related to the probability of non-conformance of the process. For a given random sample, the estimation of C_f boils down to estimating non-parametrically the tail probabilities of an unknown distribution. The approach discussed in this paper is based on the works by Pickands (1975) and Smith (1987). We also discuss the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals of C_f: based on the so-called accelerated bias correction method (BC _a:). Several simulations are carried out to demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of C_f:. Two real life data sets are analyzed using the proposed index.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

Statistical inference for α-series process with the inverse Gaussian distribution

Statistical inferences for the geometric process (GP) are derived when the distribution of the first occurrence time is assumed to be inverse Gaussian (IG). An α-series process, as a possible alternative to the GP, is introduced since the GP is sometimes inappropriate to apply some reliability and scheduling problems. In this study, statistical inference problem for the α-series process is considered where the distribution of first occurrence time is IG. The estimators of the parameters α, μ, and σ² are obtained by using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Asymptotic distributions and consistency properties of the ML estimators are derived. In order to compare the efficiencies of the ML estimators with the widely used nonparametric modified moment (MM) estimators, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. The results showed that the ML estimators are more efficient than the MM estimators. Moreover, two real life datasets are given for application purposes.     

Allocating observations between two normal populations to maximize the half slope of the F-test

Consider two independent normal populations. Let R denote the ratio of the variances. The usual procedure for testing H₀: R = 1 vs. H₁: R = r, where r≠1, is the F-test. Let θ denote the proportion of observations to be allocated to the first population. Here we find the value of θ that maximizes the rate at which the observed significance level of the F-test converges to zero under H₁, as measured by the half slope.     

A LINEAR MODEL WITH ERRORS LACKING A VARIANCE1

The problem discussed is that of estimating β= (β¹, …, β_k) in the model Y=βX +ε when X has a specified multivariate distribution and the error ε does not necessarily have a finite second moment, for example, ε symmetric stable. We construct a moment estimator based on the empirical characteristic function and establish asymptotic unbiassedness and normality. Most of the paper is concerned with the case when X is normal. Forms of the suggested estimator are given in (2.5), (4.6) and (5.5).     

An extension of the median test to analysis of variance

In a k-way analysis of variance model, the major concern is testing for main effects and for the presence of interaction between the factors. When the assumptions of normality and equal variances are satisfied, the appropriate test to use is the usual F-test for ANOVA. However, when the normality assumption is not satisfied then a robust or nonparametric test is needed to conduct the analysis. In this paper a nonparametric method based on cell counts is proposed. Each cell is divided into L subcells based on predetermined outpoints and the resulting frequencies are laid out in a contingency table. Then the Pearson x² and tne likelihood ratio tests are performed. A comparison with the classical ANOVA F-test indicates that the proposed method is preferable when the data comes from a thick-tailed highly skewed distribution.     

A note on the asymptotic distribution of the process capability index C pmk

Process capability indices have been widely used to evaluate the process performance to the continuous improvement of quality and productivity. The distribution of the estimator of the process capability index C _pmk is very complicated and the asymptotic distribution is proposed by Chen and Hsu [The asymptotic distribution of the processes capability index C _pmk , Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 24(5) (1995), pp. 1279–1291]. However, we found a critical error for the asymptotic distribution when the population mean is not equal to the midpoint of the specification limits. In this paper, a correct version of the asymptotic distribution is given. An asymptotic confidence interval of C _pmk by using the correct version of asymptotic distribution is proposed and the lower bound can be used to test if the process is capable. A simulation study of the coverage probability of the proposed confidence interval is shown to be satisfactory. The relation of six sigma technique and the index C _pmk is also discussed in this paper. An asymptotic testing procedure to determine if a process is capable based on the index of C _pmk is also given in this paper.     

Computation of the asymptotic null distribution of goodness-of-fit tests for multi-state models

We develop an improved approximation to the asymptotic null distribution of the goodness-of-fit tests for panel observed multi-state Markov models (Aguirre-Hernandez and Farewell, Stat Med 21:1899–1911, 2002) and hidden Markov models (Titman and Sharples, Stat Med 27:2177–2195, 2008). By considering the joint distribution of the grouped observed transition counts and the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameter vector it is shown that the distribution can be expressed as a weighted sum of independent c²₁{\chi^2_1} random variables, where the weights are dependent on the true parameters. The performance of this approximation for finite sample sizes and where the weights are calculated using the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is considered through simulation. In the scenarios considered, the approximation performs well and is a substantial improvement over the simple χ ² approximation.