A Condition to Obtain the Same Decision in the Homogeneity Testing Problem from the Frequentist and Bayesian Point of View

We develop a Bayesian procedure for the homogeneity testing problem of r populations using r × s contingency tables. The posterior probability of the homogeneity null hypothesis is calculated using a mixed prior distribution. The methodology consists of choosing an appropriate value of π₀ for the mass assigned to the null and spreading the remainder, 1 ? π₀, over the alternative according to a density function. With this method, a theorem which shows when the same conclusion is reached from both frequentist and Bayesian points of view is obtained. A sufficient condition under which the p-value is less than a value α and the posterior probability is also less than 0.5 is provided.     

Irreconcilability of P-value and Bayesian measure in two-sided hypothesis: Pareto distribution with the presence of nuisance parameter

Abstract

This article is concerned with the comparison of Bayesian and classical testing of a point null hypothesis for the Pareto distribution when there is a nuisance parameter. In the first stage, using a fixed prior distribution, the posterior probability is obtained and compared with the P-value. In the second case, lower bounds of the posterior probability of H₀, under a reasonable class of prior distributions, are compared with the P-value. It has been shown that even in the presence of nuisance parameters for the model, these two approaches can lead to different results in statistical inference.     

Different definitions of Δ-correct selection for the indifference zone formulation

The goal of the indifference zone formulation of selection (Bechhofer, 1954) consists of selecting the t best variants out of k variants with a probability of at least 1 − β if the parameter difference between the t ‘good’ variants and the k − t ‘bad’ variants is not less than Δ. A review of generalized selection goals not using this difference condition is presented. Within some general classes of distributions, the suitable experimental designs for all these selection goals are identical. Similar results are described for the problem of selecting the best variant in comparison with a control, or standard.     

On optimal tests for separate hypotheses and conditional probability integral transformations

Consider the problem of testing the composite null hypothesis that a random sample X₁,…,X_n is from a parent which is a member of a particular continuous parametric family of distributions against an alternative that it is from a separate family of distributions. It is shown here that in many cases a uniformly most powerful similar (UMPS) test exists for this problem, and, moreover, that this test is equivalent to a uniformly most powerful invariant (UMPI) test. It is also seen in the method of proof used that the UMPS test statistic Is a function of the statistics U₁,…,U_n?k obtained by the conditional probability integral transformations (CPIT), and thus that no Information Is lost by these transformations, It is also shown that these optimal tests have power that is a nonotone function of the null hypothesis class of distributions, so that, for example, if one additional parameter for the distribution is assumed known, then the power of the test can not lecrease. It Is shown that the statistics U₁, …, U_n?k are independent of the complete sufficient statistic, and that these statistics have important invariance properties. Two examples at given. The UMPS tests for testing the two-parameter uniform family against the two-parameter exponential family, and for testing one truncation parameter distribution against another one are derived.     

DECOMPOSITION OF A SEMI-MARKOV PROCESS UNDER A MARKOVIAN RULE

Consider a semi-Markov process {X(t), t>0} with transition epochs T₀ T₁, T₂…. Suppose that at each one of the epochs {T_n} one of R possible events, E₁, E₂,…, E_R can happen, where the occurrences of successive events form a Markov chain. for a fixed r, let the times the event E_r happens be U_o U₁, U₂,…. In this paper we are interested in the process {Y(t), t>0)} where Y(t)=X(U_k) if and only if U_k≤tk+1. It will be shown that {Y(t)} is a semi-Markov process, and its properties with respect to those of {X(t)} will be examined.     

The discrepancy of P-values and posterior probability: Two-sided hypothesis of variance of normal distribution with unknown mean

This article is concerned with the comparison of P-value and Bayesian measure in point null hypothesis for the variance of Normal distribution with unknown mean. First, using fixed prior for test parameter, the posterior probability is obtained and compared with the P-value when an appropriate prior is used for the mean parameter. In the second, lower bounds of the posterior probability of H₀ under a reasonable class of prior are compared with the P-value. It has been shown that even in the presence of nuisance parameters, these two approaches can lead to different results in the statistical inference.     

Characterization of generalized markov-polya and generalized polya-eggenberger distributions

A discrete model is considered where the original observation is subjected to partial destruction according to the Generalized Markov-Polya (GMP) damage model. A characterization of the Generalized Polya-Eggenberger distribution (GPED) is given in the context of the Rao-Rubin condition. More specifically, if the probability that an observation n of a non-negative integer valued r.v.X is reduced to an integer k during a damage, process is given by the GMPD, and if the resulting r.v.Y is such thatrit satisfies the RR-conditlon, then X has a GPED. Secondly, if N = A + B, where B is the missing part and A is the recorded part such that the conditional distribution P(A= x|N=n) is the GMPD, then the r.v.'s A and B are independent if, and only if, N has a GPED. Several other characterizations are also given for these two distributions. The results of Rao-Rubin ‘1964’, Patil-Ratnaparkhi (1977) and Consul (1975) follow as special cases.     

Multiple testing using the posterior probabilities of directional alternatives,with application to genomic studies

This paper aims to connect Bayesian analysis and frequentist theory in the context of multiple comparisons. The authors show that when testing the equality of two sample means, the posterior probability of the one‐sided alternative hypothesis, defined as a half‐space, shares with the frequentist P‐value the property of uniformity under the null hypothesis. Ultimately, the posterior probability may thus be used in the same spirit as a P‐value in the Benjamini‐Hochberg procedure, or in any of its extensions.     

A predictive approach for the selection of a fixed number of good treatments

This paper offers a predictive approach for the selection of a fixed number (= t) of treatments from k treatments with the goal of controlling for predictive losses. For the ith treatment, independent observations X _ij (j = 1,2,…,n) can be observed where X _ij ’s are normally distributed N(θ _i ; σ ²). The ranked values of θ _i ’s and X _i ’s are θ ₍₁₎ ≤ … ≤ θ _(k) and X _[1] ≤ … ≤ X _[k] and the selected subset S = {[k], [k? 1], … , [k ? t+1]} will be considered. This paper distinguishes between two types of loss functions. A type I loss function associated with a selected subset S is the loss in utility from the selector’s view point and is a function of θ _i with i ? S. A type II loss function associated with S measures the unfairness in the selection from candidates’ viewpoint and is a function of θ _i with i ? S. This paper shows that under mild assumptions on the loss functions S is optimal and provides the necessary formulae for choosing n so that the two types of loss can be controlled individually or simultaneously with a high probability. Predictive bounds for the losses are provided, Numerical examples support the usefulness of the predictive approach over the design of experiment approach.     

TESTS FOR DETECTING MORE NBU-NESS AT A SPECIFIC AGE

This paper proposes a class of non‐parametric test procedures for testing the null hypothesis that two distributions, F and G, are equal versus the alternative hypothesis that F is ‘more NBU (new better than used) at specified age t₀’ than G. Using Hoeffding's two‐sample U‐statistic theorem, it establishes the asymptotic normality of the test statistics and produces a class of asymptotically distribution‐free tests. Pitman asymptotic efficacies of the proposed tests are calculated with respect to the location and shape parameters. A numerical example is provided for illustrative purposes.     

A Proposed Hybrid Effect Size Plus p-Value Criterion: Empirical Evidence Supporting its Use

ABSTRACT

When the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology effectively banned the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) from articles published in their journal, it set off a fire-storm of discussions both supporting the decision and defending the utility of NHST in scientific research. At the heart of NHST is the p-value which is the probability of obtaining an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed in the sample data, given the null hypothesis and other model assumptions. Although this is conceptually different from the probability of the null hypothesis being true, given the sample, p-values nonetheless can provide evidential information, toward making an inference about a parameter. Applying a 10,000-case simulation described in this article, the authors found that p-values’ inferential signals to either reject or not reject a null hypothesis about the mean (α?=?0.05) were consistent for almost 70% of the cases with the parameter’s true location for the sampled-from population. Success increases if a hybrid decision criterion, minimum effect size plus p-value (MESP), is used. Here, rejecting the null also requires the difference of the observed statistic from the exact null to be meaningfully large or practically significant, in the researcher’s judgment and experience. The simulation compares performances of several methods: from p-value and/or effect size-based, to confidence-interval based, under various conditions of true location of the mean, test power, and comparative sizes of the meaningful distance and population variability. For any inference procedure that outputs a binary indicator, like flagging whether a p-value is significant, the output of one single experiment is not sufficient evidence for a definitive conclusion. Yet, if a tool like MESP generates a relatively reliable signal and is used knowledgeably as part of a research process, it can provide useful information.     

Bayesian confidence estimation: an alternative approach

From a Bayesian point of wiew, the estimation of an unknown parameter can be interpreted (in many situations) as the problem of fixing a partition of the parameter space (by means of small intervals I₁,…I_k and choosing an interval I_j, from this partition, provided that sufficient information has been obtained. This idea is developed in a decision theory setting. If the Kolmogorov-Smirnov loss is used, it is proved that I_j is the best interval estimation if and only if its posterior probability is greater than or equal to 1/2     

Test of Association Between Two Ordinal Variables While Adjusting for Covariates

We propose a new set of test statistics to examine the association between two ordinal categorical variables X and Y after adjusting for continuous and/or categorical covariates Z. Our approach first fits multinomial (e.g., proportional odds) models of X and Y, separately, on Z. For each subject, we then compute the conditional distributions of X and Y given Z. If there is no relationship between X and Y after adjusting for Z, then these conditional distributions will be independent, and the observed value of (X, Y) for a subject is expected to follow the product distribution of these conditional distributions. We consider two simple ways of testing the null of conditional independence, both of which treat X and Y equally, in the sense that they do not require specifying an outcome and a predictor variable. The first approach adds these product distributions across all subjects to obtain the expected distribution of (X, Y) under the null and then contrasts it with the observed unconditional distribution of (X, Y). Our second approach computes "residuals" from the two multinomial models and then tests for correlation between these residuals; we define a new individual-level residual for models with ordinal outcomes. We present methods for computing p-values using either the empirical or asymptotic distributions of our test statistics. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our test statistics perform well in terms of power and Type I error rate when compared to proportional odds models which treat X as either a continuous or categorical predictor. We apply our methods to data from a study of visual impairment in children and to a study of cervical abnormalities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.     

Coupling methods in approximations

Let X and Y be two arbitrary k-dimensional discrete random vectors, for k ≥ 1. We prove that there exists a coupling method which minimizes P( X ≠ Y ). This result is used to find the least upper bound for the metric d( X, Y ) = sup_A|P( X ∈ A ) ? P( Y ∈ A )| and to derive the inequality d(Σ X _i, Σ Y _i) ≤ Σd( X _i, Y _i). We thus obtain a unified method to measure the disparity between the distributions of sums of independent random vectors. Several examples are given.     

Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

REGRESSION ANALYSIS USING SCRAMBLED RESPONSES

This paper investigates the general linear regression model Y = Xβ+e assuming the dependent variable is observed as a scrambled response using Eichhorn & Hayre's (1983) approach to collecting sensitive personal information. The estimates of the parameters in the model remain unbiased, but the variances of the estimates increase due to scrambling. The Wald test of the null hypothesis H₀: β=β₀, against the alternative hypothesis H_a: β#β₀, is also investigated. Parameter estimates obtained from scrambled responses are compared to those from conventional or direct-question surveys, using simulation. The coverage by nominal 95% confidence intervals is also reported.     

A one-sided test for testino homogeneity of scale parameters against simple ordered alternative

In an earlier paper the authors (1997) extended the results of Hayter (1990) to the two parameter exponential probability model. This paper addressee the extention to the scale parameter case under location-scale probability model. Consider k (k≧3) treatments or competing firms such that an observation from with treatment or firm follows a distribution with cumulative distribution function (cdf) F_i(x)=F[(x-μ_i)/Q_i], where F(·) is any absolutely continuous cdf, i=1,…,k. We propose a test to test the null hypothesis H₀:θ₁=…=θ_k against the simple ordered alternative H₁:θ₁≦…≦θ_k, with at least one strict inequality, using the data X_i,j, i=1,…k; j=1,…,n₁. Two methods to compute the critical points of the proposed test have been demonstrated by talking k two parameter exponential distributions. The test procedure also allows us to construct simultaneous one sided confidence intervals (SOCIs) for the ordered pairwise ratios θ_j/θ_i, 1≦i<j≦k. Statistical simulation revealed that: 9i) actual sizes of the critical points are almost conservative and (ii) power of the proposed test relative to some existing tests is higher.     

Minimax subset selection for the multinomial distribution

Let (X₁,…,X_k) be a multinomial vector with unknown cell probabilities (p₁,?,p_k). A subset of the cells is to be selected in a way so that the cell associated with the smallest cell probability is included in the selected subset with a preassigned probability, P¹. Suppose the loss is measured by the size of the selected subset, S. Using linear programming techniques, selection rules can be constructed which are minimax with respect to S in the class of rules which satisfy the P¹-condition. In some situations, the rule constructed by this method is the rule proposed by Nagel (1970). Similar techniques also work for selection in terms of the largest cell probability.     

Asymptotic tail behavior of a random sum with conditionally dependent subexponential summands

In this paper, we obtain some results for the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of a random sum S_τ = ∑^τ_{k = 1}X_k, where the summands X_k, k = 1, 2, …, are conditionally dependent random variables with a common subexponential distribution F, and the random number τ is a non negative integer-valued random variable, independent of {X_k: k ? 1}.