Projectors and linear estimation in general linear models

The paper gives a self-contained account of minimum disper­sion linear unbiased estimation of the expectation vector in a linear model with the dispersion matrix belonging to some, rather arbitrary, set of nonnegative definite matrices. The approach to linear estimation in general linear models recommended here is a direct generalization of some ideas and results presented by Rao (1973, 19 74) for the case of a general Gauss-Markov model

A new insight into the nature of some estimation problems originaly arising in the context of a general Gauss-Markov model as well as the correspondence of results known in the literature to those obtained in the present paper for general linear models are also given. As preliminary results the theory of projectors defined by Rao (1973) is extended.     

Identification,Estimation, and Control of Uncertain Dynamic Systems: A Nonparametric Approach

This article is devoted to a presentation of the author' practice of the non-parametric estimation theory for the estimation, filtering, and control of uncertain dynamic systems. The fundamental advantage of this approach is a weak dependency on prior modeling assumptions about uncertain dynamic components. This approach appears to be of great interest for the control of general discrete-time processes, and in particular, biotechnological processes, which are emblematic of nonlinear uncertain and partially observed systems.     

Some new aspects of taxicab correspondence analysis

Correspondence analysis (CA) and nonsymmetric correspondence analysis are based on generalized singular value decomposition, and, in general, they are not equivalent. Taxicab correspondence analysis (TCA) is a \(\hbox {L}_{1}\) variant of CA, and it is based on the generalized taxicab singular value decomposition (GTSVD). Our aim is to study the taxicab variant of nonsymmetric correspondence analysis. We find that for diagonal metric matrices GTSVDs of a given data set are equivalent; from which we deduce the equivalence of TCA and taxicab nonsymmetric correspondence analysis. We also attempt to show that TCA stays as close as possible to the original correspondence matrix without calculating a dissimilarity (or similarity) measure between rows or columns. Further, we discuss some new geometric and distance aspects of TCA.     

A semidefinite programming study of the Elfving theorem

The theorem of Elfving is one of the most important and earliest results which have led to the theory of optimal design of experiments. This paper presents a fresh study of it from the viewpoint of modern semidefinite programming. There is one-to-one correspondence between solutions of the derived semidefinite programming problem (SDP) and c-optimal designs. We also derive a uniqueness theorem which ensures a unique optimal design without assuming the linear independence property over the largest set of supporting points. The SDP can also be cast as an ?₁‐convex program which has recently been extensively studied and often yields sparse solutions. Our numerical experiments on the trigonometric regression model confirm that the SDP does produce a sparse optimal design.     

Strong orthogonal decompositions and non‐linear impulse response functions for infinite‐variance processes

The author proves that Wold‐type decompositions with strong orthogonal prediction innovations exist in smooth, reflexive Banach spaces of discrete time processes if and only if the projection operator generating the innovations satisfies the property of iterations. His theory includes as special cases all previous Wold‐type decompositions of discrete time processes, completely characterizes when non‐linear heavy‐tailed processes obtain a strong‐orthogonal moving average representation, and easily promotes a theory of non‐linear impulse response functions for infinite‐variance processes. The author exemplifies his theory by developing a non‐linear impulse response function for smooth transition threshold processes, and discusses how to test decomposition innovations for strong orthogonality and whether the proposed model represents the best predictor. A data set on currency exchange rates allows him to illustrate his methodology.     

A probabilistic model for nonsymmetric correspondence analysis and prediction in contingency tables

Summary Nonsymmetric correspondence analysis is a model meant for the analysis of the dependence in a two-way continengy table, and is an alternative to correspondence analysis. Correspondence analysis is based on the decomposition of Pearson's Ф²-index Nonsymmetric correspondence analysis is based on the decomposition of Goodman-Kruskal's τ-index for predicatablity. In this paper, we approach nonsymmetric correspondence analysis as a statistical model based on a probability distribution. We provide algorithms for the maximum likelihood and the least-squares estimation with linear constraints upon model parameters. The nonsymmetric correspondence analysis model has many properties that can be useful for prediction analysis in contingency tables. Predictability measures are introduced to identify the categories of the response variable that can be best predicted, as well as the categories of the explanatory variable having the highest predictability power. We describe the interpretation of model parameters in two examples. In the end, we discuss the relations of nonsymmetric correspondence analysis with other reduced-rank models.     

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skin that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.     

Estimation of parameterized spatio-temporal dynamic models

Spatio-temporal processes are often high-dimensional, exhibiting complicated variability across space and time. Traditional state-space model approaches to such processes in the presence of uncertain data have been shown to be useful. However, estimation of state-space models in this context is often problematic since parameter vectors and matrices are of high dimension and can have complicated dependence structures. We propose a spatio-temporal dynamic model formulation with parameter matrices restricted based on prior scientific knowledge and/or common spatial models. Estimation is carried out via the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm or general EM algorithm. Several parameterization strategies are proposed and analytical or computational closed form EM update equations are derived for each. We apply the methodology to a model based on an advection–diffusion partial differential equation in a simulation study and also to a dimension-reduced model for a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data set.     

Statistical methods in optimal curve fitting

Many optimal curve fitting and approximation problems have the same structure as certain estimation problems involving random processes. This structural correspondence has many useful consequences for curve fitting problems, including recursive algorithms and computable error bounds. The basic facts of this correspondence are reviewed and some new results on error bounds and optimal sampling are presented.     

Admissibility of linear estimators with respect to restricted parameter sets

In this paper the admissibility of a linear estimator for a linear regression parameter is characterized for such cases, where the considered parameter varies in an ellipsoid. We obtain a certain subset of the set of all linear estimators which are admissible with respect to the unrestricted parameter set. Furthermore, various linear estimators which have been proposed for improving the least squares estimator in cases of a restricted parameter set are investigated for admissibility. It turns out that only some shrunken estimators and some estimators of ridge type are admissible, whereas the KUKS-OLMAN estimator and all estimators of MARQUARDT type can be improved.     

Confidence Intervals in Regression That Utilize Uncertain Prior Information About a Vector Parameter

Consider a linear regression model with independent normally distributed errors. Suppose that the scalar parameter of interest is a specified linear combination of the components of the regression parameter vector. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that a parameter vector, consisting of specified distinct linear combinations of these components, takes a given value. Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for the parameter of interest is the scaled expected length, defined to be the expected length of this confidence interval divided by the expected length of the standard confidence interval for this parameter, with the same confidence coefficient. We say that a confidence interval for the parameter of interest utilizes this uncertain prior information if (a) the scaled expected length of this interval is substantially less than one when the prior information is correct, (b) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too large and (c) this confidence interval reverts to the standard confidence interval, with the same confidence coefficient, when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. We present a new confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest, with specified confidence coefficient, that utilizes this uncertain prior information. A factorial experiment with one replicate is used to illustrate the application of this new confidence interval.     

A non linear analysis of the preference for preservation of the teeth

Data resulting from behavioral dental research, usually categorical or discretized and having unknown measurement and distributional characteristics, often cannot be analyzed with classical multivariate techniques. A non linear principal components technique called multiple correspondence analysis is presented with its corresponding computer program that can handle this kind of data. The model is described as a form of multidimensional scaling. The technique Is applied in order to establish which factors are associated with an Individual's preference for preservation of the teeth.     

NON-SYMMETRICAL CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS WITH CONCATENATION AND LINEAR CONSTRAINTS

Correspondence analysis is a popular statistical technique used to identify graphically the presence, and structure, of association between two or more cross-classified categorical variables. Such a procedure is very useful when it is known that there is a symmetric (two-way) relationship between the variables. When such a relationship is known not to exist, non-symmetrical correspondence analysis is more appropriate as a method of establishing the source of association. This paper highlights some tools that can be used to explore the behaviour of asymmetric categorical variables. These tools consist of confidence regions, the link between non-symmetrical correspondence analysis and the analysis of variance of categorical variables, and the effect of imposing linear constraints. We also explore the application of non-symmetrical correspondence analysis to three-way contingency tables.     

Restricted most powerful Bayesian tests for linear models

Uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests (UMPBTs) are a new class of Bayesian tests in which null hypotheses are rejected if their Bayes factor exceeds a specified threshold. The alternative hypotheses in UMPBTs are defined to maximize the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected. Here, we generalize the notion of UMPBTs by restricting the class of alternative hypotheses over which this maximization is performed, resulting in restricted most powerful Bayesian tests (RMPBTs). We then derive RMPBTs for linear models by restricting alternative hypotheses to g priors. For linear models, the rejection regions of RMPBTs coincide with those of usual frequentist F‐tests, provided that the evidence thresholds for the RMPBTs are appropriately matched to the size of the classical tests. This correspondence supplies default Bayes factors for many common tests of linear hypotheses. We illustrate the use of RMPBTs for ANOVA tests and t‐tests and compare their performance in numerical studies.     

Order-restricted hypothesis testing in a variation of the normal mixture model

This paper examines likelihood-ratio tests concerning the relationships among a fixed number of univariate normal means given a sample of normal observations whose population membership is uncertain. The asymptotic null distributions of likelihood-ratio test statistics are derived for a class of tests including hypotheses which place linear inequality constraints on the normal means. The use of such tests in the interval mapping of quantitative trait loci is addressed.     

Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions

Eliciting expert knowledge about several uncertain quantities is a complex task when those quantities exhibit associations. A well-known example of such a problem is eliciting knowledge about a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to 1. The usual approach is to assume that the expert's knowledge can be adequately represented by a Dirichlet distribution, since this is by far the simplest multivariate distribution that is appropriate for such a set of proportions. It is also the most convenient, particularly when the expert's prior knowledge is to be combined with a multinomial sample since then the Dirichlet is the conjugate prior family. Several methods have been described in the literature for eliciting beliefs in the form of a Dirichlet distribution, which typically involve eliciting from the expert enough judgements to identify uniquely the Dirichlet hyperparameters. We describe here a new method which employs the device of over-fitting, i.e. eliciting more than the minimal number of judgements, in order to (a) produce a more carefully considered Dirichlet distribution and (b) ensure that the Dirichlet distribution is indeed a reasonable fit to the expert's knowledge. The method has been implemented in a software extension of the Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) to facilitate the multivariate elicitation process.     

Correspondence analysis of square asymmetric matrices

The application of correspondence analysis to square asymmetric tables is often unsuccessful because of the strong role played by the diagonal entries of the matrix, obscuring the data off the diagonal. A simple modification of the centring of the matrix, coupled with the corresponding change in row and column masses and row and column metrics, allows the table to be decomposed into symmetric and skew symmetric components, which can then be analysed separately. The symmetric and skew symmetric analyses can be performed by using a simple correspondence analysis program if the data are set up in a special block format. The methodology is demonstrated on a social mobility table from the first democratically elected Parliament in Germany, the Frankfurter Nationalversammlung . The table cross-tabulates the jobs of parliamentarians when first entering the labour market and their jobs in May 1848 when the Parliament started its first session.     

Semiparametric estimation for seasonal long-memory time series using generalized exponential models

We consider a generalized exponential (GEXP) model in the frequency domain for modeling seasonal long-memory time series. This model generalizes the fractional exponential (FEXP) model [Beran, J., 1993. Fitting long-memory models by generalized linear regression. Biometrika 80, 817–822] to allow the singularity in the spectral density occurring at an arbitrary frequency for modeling persistent seasonality and business cycles. Moreover, the short-memory structure of this model is characterized by the Bloomfield [1973. An exponential model for the spectrum of a scalar time series. Biometrika 60, 217–226] model, which has a fairly flexible semiparametric form. The proposed model includes fractionally integrated processes, Bloomfield models, FEXP models as well as GARMA models [Gray, H.L., Zhang, N.-F., Woodward, W.A., 1989. On generalized fractional processes. J. Time Ser. Anal. 10, 233–257] as special cases. We develop a simple regression method for estimating the seasonal long-memory parameter. The asymptotic bias and variance of the corresponding long-memory estimator are derived. Our methodology is applied to a sunspot data set and an Internet traffic data set for illustration.     

Characterization of discrete scale invariant Markov sequences

ABSTRACT

Some special sampling of discrete scale invariant (DSI) processes are presented to provide a multi-dimensional self-similar process in correspondence. By imposing Markov property we show that the covariance functions of such Markov DSI sequences are characterized by variance, and covariance of adjacent samples in the first scale interval. We also provide a theoretical method for estimating spectral density matrix of corresponding multi-dimensional self-similar Markov process. Some examples such as simple Brownian motion (sBm) with drift and scale invariant autoregressive model are presented and these properties are investigated. We present two new method to estimate Hurst parameter of DSI processes and apply them to some sBm and also to the SP500 indices for some period which has DSI property. We compare our estimates with the maximum-likelihood and rescaled range (R/S) method which are applied to the corresponding multi-dimensional self-similar processes.