A new hybrid estimation method for the generalized pareto distribution

ABSTRACT

The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is important in the analysis of extreme values, especially in modeling exceedances over thresholds. Most of the existing methods for estimating the scale and shape parameters of the GPD suffer from theoretical and/or computational problems. A new hybrid estimation method is proposed in this article, which minimizes a goodness-of-fit measure and incorporates some useful likelihood information. Compared with the maximum likelihood method and other leading methods, our new hybrid estimation method retains high efficiency, reduces the estimation bias, and is computation friendly.     

Some simple estimators for the two-parameter gamma distribution

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose two new simple estimation methods for the two-parameter gamma distribution. The first one is a modified version of the method of moments, whereas the second one makes use of some key properties of the distribution. We then derive the asymptotic distributions of these estimators. Also, bias-reduction methods are suggested to reduce the bias of these estimators. The performance of the estimators are evaluated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The probability coverages of confidence intervals are also discussed. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Comparisons of methods of estimation for a pareto distribution of the first kind

This paper compares methods of estimation for the parameters of a Pareto distribution of the first kind to determine which method provides the better estimates when the observations are censored, The unweighted least squares (LS) and the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are presented for both censored and uncensored data. The MLE's are obtained using two methods, In the first, called the ML method, it is shown that log-likelihood is maximized when the scale parameter is the minimum sample value. In the second method, called the modified ML (MML) method, the estimates are found by utilizing the maximum likelihood value of the shape parameter in terms of the scale parameter and the equation for the mean of the first order statistic as a function of both parameters. Since censored data often occur in applications, we study two types of censoring for their effects on the methods of estimation: Type II censoring and multiple random censoring. In this study we consider different sample sizes and several values of the true shape and scale parameters.

Comparisons are made in terms of bias and the mean squared error of the estimates. We propose that the LS method be generally preferred over the ML and MML methods for estimating the Pareto parameter γ for all sample sizes, all values of the parameter and for both complete and censored samples. In many cases, however, the ML estimates are comparable in their efficiency, so that either estimator can effectively be used. For estimating the parameter α, the LS method is also generally preferred for smaller values of the parameter (α ≤4). For the larger values of the parameter, and for censored samples, the MML method appears superior to the other methods with a slight advantage over the LS method. For larger values of the parameter α, for censored samples and all methods, underestimation can be a problem.     

Umvu estimation for the cumulative hazard function in a pareto distribution of the first kind

The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the cumulative hazard function in the Pareto distribution of the first kind is derived. The variance of the estimator is also obtained in an analytic form, and for some cases its values are compared numerically with mean square errors of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Modified skew-slash distribution

Abstract

In this work, we introduce a new skewed slash distribution. This modification of the skew-slash distribution is obtained by the quotient of two independent random variables. That quotient consists on a skew-normal distribution divided by a power of an exponential distribution with scale parameter equal to two. In this way, the new skew distribution has a heavier tail than that of the skew-slash distribution. We give the probability density function expressed by an integral, but we obtain some important properties useful for making inferences, such as moment estimators and maximum likelihood estimators. By way of illustration and by using real data, we provide maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the modified skew-slash and the skew-slash distributions. Finally, we introduce a multivariate version of this new distribution.     

Estimation for the generalized pareto distribution with censored data

We present a methodology for computing the point and interval maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the two-parameter generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) with censored data. The basic idea underlying our method is a reduction of the two-dimensional numerical search for the zeros of the GPD log-likelihood gradient vector to a one-dimensional numerical search. We describe a computationally efficient algorithm which implement this approach. Two illustrative examples are presented. Simulation results indicate that the estimates derived by maximum likelihood estimation are more reliable against those of method of moments. An evaluation of the practical sample size requirements for the asymptotic normality is also included.     

Algorithmic Inference of Two-Parameter Gamma Distribution

We provide an estimation procedure of the two-parameter Gamma distribution based on the Algorithmic Inference approach. As a key feature of this approach, we compute the joint probability distribution of these parameters without assuming any prior. To this end, we propose a numerical algorithm which is often beneficial of a highly efficient speed up based on an approximate analytical expression of the probability distribution. We contrast our interval and point estimates with those recently obtained in Son and Oh (2006 Son , Y. S. , Oh , M. ( 2006 ). Bayesian estimation of the two-parameter gamma distribution . Communications in Statistics – Simulation and Computation 35 : 285 – 293 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for the same problem. From this benchmark we realize that our estimates are both unbiased and more accurate, albeit more dispersed, in some cases, than the competitors' methods, where the dispersion drawback is notably mitigated w.r.t. Bayesian methods by a greater estimate decorrelation. We also briefly discuss the theoretical novelty of the adopted inference paradigm which actually represents a brush up on a Fisher perspective dating to almost a century, made feasible today by the available computational tools.     

A TWO-STAGE UNRELATED RANDOMISED RESPONSE PROCEDURE

In a sample survey, questions requiring personal or controversial assertions often give rise to resistance. A randomised response procedure can be used to help the researcher gather accurate data in this case. This paper describes a new two-stage unrelated randomised response procedure that combines the use of two randomisation devices (Mangat & Singh, 1990) and an unrelated question (Horwitz et al. 1967). It examines the situation where the respondents are not completely truthful in their answers. The efficiency of this new method is compared with the original one-stage procedure proposed by Horwitz et al. (1967), and guidelines for choosing the values of different parameters for the procedures are provided. Results from an empirical study which examines the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed method are given.     

A hypothesis testing procedure for the evaluation on the lifetime performance index of products with Burr XII distribution under progressive type I interval censoring

ABSTRACT

It is a very important topic these days to assessing the lifetime performance of products in manufacturing or service industries. Lifetime performance indices C_L is used to measure the larger-the-better type quality characteristics to evaluate the process performance for the improvement of quality and productivity. The lifetimes of products are assumed to have Burr XII distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator is used to estimate the lifetime performance index based on the progressive type I interval censored sample. The asymptotic distribution of this estimator is also developed. We use this estimator to build the new hypothesis testing algorithmic procedure with respect to a lower specification limit. Finally, two practical examples are given to illustrate the use of this testing algorithmic procedure to determine whether the process is capable.     

Estimation of the parameters of Downton's bivariate exponential distribution using ranked set sampling scheme

The parameters of Downton's bivariate exponential distribution are estimated based on a ranked set sample. Parametric and nonparametric methods are considered. The suggested estimators are compared to the corresponding ones based on simple random sampling. It turns out that some of the suggested estimators are significantly more efficient than the ones based on simple random sampling.     

The prediction distribution for the heteroscedastic multivariate lineary models

The heceroscedastic multivariate linear model with multivariate normal error distribution has been considered, using the structural relation of the model, the prediction distribution of future responses of the model has been derived. it is observed that for known covariance parameters the prediction distribution of the model has a product of m multivariate Student t distribution. It is to be noted that the prediction distribution for the Student t error also has a product of m multivariate Student t distribution. Some special cases have been discussed.     

Efficient closed-form maximum a posteriori estimators for the gamma distribution

We proposed a new class of maximum a posteriori estimators for the parameters of the Gamma distribution. These estimators have simple closed-form expressions and can be rewritten as a bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimators presented by Ye and Chen [Closed-form estimators for the gamma distribution derived from likelihood equations. Am Statist. 2017;71(2):177–181]. A simulation study was carried out to compare different estimation procedures. Numerical results revels that our new estimation scheme outperforms the existing closed-form estimators and produces extremely efficient estimates for both parameters, even for small sample sizes.     

A comparative evaluation of the estimators of the three-parameter generalized pareto distribution

The parameters and quantiles of the three-parameter generalized Pareto distribution (GPD3) were estimated using six methods for Monte Carlo generated samples. The parameter estimators were the moment estimator and its two variants, probability-weighted moment estimator, maximum likelihood estimator, and entropy estimator. Parameters were investigated using a factorial experiment. The performance of these estimators was statistically compared, with the objective of identifying the most robust estimator from amongst them.     

Inference of R = P[X < Y] for skew normal distribution

This article studies the estimation of R = P[X < Y] when X and Y are two independent skew normal distribution with different parameters. When the scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is proposed. The maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are obtained when the common scale parameter is known. In the general case, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is also discussed. To compare the different proposed methods, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. At last, the analysis of a real dataset has been presented for illustrative purposes too.     

On estimation of the PDF and CDF of the Lindley distribution

This article addresses two methods of estimation of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the Lindley distribution. Following estimation methods are considered: uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Since the Lindley distribution is more flexible than the exponential distribution, the same estimators have been found out for the exponential distribution and compared. Monte Carlo simulations and a real data analysis are performed to compare the performances of the proposed methods of estimation.     

A study of moments and likelihood estimators of the odd Weibull distribution

The odd Weibull distribution is a three-parameter generalization of the Weibull and the inverse Weibull distributions having rich density and hazard shapes for modeling lifetime data. This paper explored the odd Weibull parameter regions having finite moments and examined the relation to some well-known distributions based on skewness and kurtosis functions. The existence of maximum likelihood estimators have shown with complete data for any sample size. The proof for the uniqueness of these estimators is given only when the absolute value of the second shape parameter is between zero and one. Furthermore, elements of the Fisher information matrix are obtained based on complete data using a single integral representation which have shown to exist for any parameter values. The performance of the odd Weibull distribution over various density and hazard shapes is compared with generalized gamma distribution using two different test statistics. Finally, analysis of two data sets has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

Modified inference about the mean of the exponential distribution using moving extreme ranked set sampling

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the likelihood ratio test (LRT) will be considered for making inference about the scale parameter of the exponential distribution in case of moving extreme ranked set sampling (MERSS). The MLE and LRT can not be written in closed form. Therefore, a modification of the MLE using the technique suggested by Maharota and Nanda (Biometrika 61:601–606, 1974) will be considered and this modified estimator will be used to modify the LRT to get a test in closed form for testing a simple hypothesis against one sided alternatives. The same idea will be used to modify the most powerful test (MPT) for testing a simple hypothesis versus a simple hypothesis to get a test in closed form for testing a simple hypothesis against one sided alternatives. Then it appears that the modified estimator is a good competitor of the MLE and the modified tests are good competitors of the LRT using MERSS and simple random sampling (SRS).     

Approximate MLE for the scale parameter of the generalized exponential distribution under random censoring

In this paper, we consider the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the scale parameter of the generalized exponential (GE) distribution based on a random censoring model. We assume the censoring distribution also follows a GE distribution. Since the estimator does not provide an explicit solution, we propose a simple method of deriving an explicit estimator by approximating the likelihood function. In order to compare the performance of the estimators, Monte Carlo simulation is conducted. The results show that the MLE and the approximate MLE are almost identical in terms of bias and variance.     

A note on bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates for the scalar skew t distribution

The skew t distribution is a flexible parametric family to fit data, because it includes parameters that let us regulate skewness and kurtosis. A problem with this distribution is that, for moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the shape parameter is infinite with positive probability. In order to try to solve this problem, Sartori (2006) has proposed using a modified score function as an estimating equation for the shape parameter. In this note we prove that the resulting modified maximum likelihood estimator is always finite, considering the degrees of freedom as known and greater than or equal to 2.