Modelling claim number using a new mixture model: negative binomial gamma distribution

ABSTRACT

In actuarial applications, mixed Poisson distributions are widely used for modelling claim counts as observed data on the number of claims often exhibit a variance noticeably exceeding the mean. In this study, a new claim number distribution is obtained by mixing negative binomial parameter p which is reparameterized as p?=?exp( ?λ) with Gamma distribution. Basic properties of this new distribution are given. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters are calculated using the Newton–Raphson and genetic algorithm (GA). We compared the performance of these methods in terms of efficiency by simulation. A numerical example is provided.     

A Comparison of Two Random Number Generators for the Birnbaum–Saunders Distribution

Abstract

The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution was developed to describe fatigue failure lifetimes, however, the distribution has been shown to be applicable for a variety of situations that frequently occur in the engineering sciences. In general, the distribution can be used for situations that involve stochastic wear–out failure. The distribution does not have an exponential family structure, and it is often necessary to use simulation methods to study the properties of statistical inference procedures for this distribution. Two random number generators for the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution have appeared in the literature. The purpose of this article is to present and compare these two random number generators to determine which is more efficient. It is shown that one of these generators is a special case of the other and is simpler and more efficient to use.     

Data-driven smooth tests for the extreme value distribution

In this paper we present data-driven smooth tests for the extreme value distribution. These tests are based on a general idea of construction of data-driven smooth tests for composite hypotheses introduced by Inglot, T., Kallenberg, W. C. M. and Ledwina, T. [(1997). Data-driven smooth tests for composite hypotheses. Ann. Statist., 25, 1222–1250] and its modification for location-scale family proposed in Janic-Wróblewska, A. [(2004). Data-driven smooth test for a location-scale family. Statistics, in press]. Results of power simulations show that the newly introduced test performs very well for a wide range of alternatives and is competitive with other commonly used tests for the extreme value distribution.     

Adjusted Likelihood Inference in an Elliptical Multivariate Errors-in-Variables Model

In this paper, we obtain an adjusted version of the likelihood ratio (LR) test for errors-in-variables multivariate linear regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal distribution as a special case. We derive a modified LR statistic that follows a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. Our results generalize those in Melo and Ferrari (Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2010, 94, pp. 75–87) by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued in the multivariate errors-in-variables model. We report a simulation study which shows that the proposed test displays superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard LR test.     

Two-Sided Generalized Exponential Distribution

We derive a generalization of the exponential distribution by making log transformation of the standard two-sided power distribution. We show that this new generalization is in fact a mixture of a truncated exponential distribution and truncated generalized exponential distribution introduced by Gupta and Kundu [Generalized exponential distributions. Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. 41(1999):173–188]. The newly defined distribution is more flexible for modeling data than the ordinary exponential distribution. We study its properties, estimate the parameters, and demonstrate it on some well-known real data sets comparing other existing methods.     

An extended fatigue life distribution

A five-parameter extended fatigue life model called the McDonald–Birnbaum–Saunders (McBS) distribution is proposed. It extends the Birnbaum–Saunders and beta Birnbaum–Saunders [G.M. Cordeiro and A.J. Lemonte, The β-Birnbaum–Saunders distribution: An improved distribution for fatigue life modeling. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 1445–1461] distributions and also the new Kumaraswamy–Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. We obtain the ordinary moments, generating function, mean deviations and quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the model parameters and its potentiality is illustrated with an application to a real fatigue data set. Further, we propose a new extended regression model based on the logarithm of the McBS distribution. This model can be very useful to the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.     

On some study of skew-t distributions

Abstract

In this note, through ratio of independent random variables, new families of univariate and bivariate skew-t distributions are introduced. Probability density function for each skew-t distribution will be given. We also derive explicit forms of moments of the univariate skew-t distribution and recurrence relations for its cumulative distribution function. Finally we illustrate the flexibility of this class of distributions with applications to a simulated data and the volcanos heights data.     

Order-preserving Estimators and an Inequality on the Integration of Zonal Polynomial

ABSTRACT

Suppose X , p × p p.d. random matrix, has the distribution which depends on a p × p p.d. parameter matrix Σ and this distribution is orthogonally invariant. The orthogonally invariant estimator of Σ which has the eigenvalues of the same order as the eigenvalues of X is called order-preserving. We conjecture that a non-order-preserving estimator is dominated by modified order-preserving estimators with respect to the entropy (Stein's) loss function. We show that an inequality on the integration of zonal polynomial is sufficient for this conjecture. We also prove this inequality for the case p = 2.     

Exact likelihood inference based on an unified hybrid censored sample from the exponential distribution

Recently, exact confidence bounds and exact likelihood inference have been developed based on hybrid censored samples by Chen and Bhattacharyya [Chen, S. and Bhattacharyya, G.K. (1998). Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 17, 1857–1870.], Childs et al. [Childs, A., Chandrasekar, B., Balakrishnan, N. and Kundu, D. (2003). Exact likelihood inference based on Type-I and Type-II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 55, 319–330.], and Chandrasekar et al. [Chandrasekar, B., Childs, A. and Balakrishnan, N. (2004). Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type-I and Type-II hybrid censoring. Naval Research Logistics, 51, 994–1004.] for the case of the exponential distribution. In this article, we propose an unified hybrid censoring scheme (HCS) which includes many cases considered earlier as special cases. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under this general unified HCS. Finally, we present some examples to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

On the Distribution of Matrix Quadratic Forms

A characterization of the distribution of the multivariate quadratic form given by X A X′, where X is a p × n normally distributed matrix and A is an n × n symmetric real matrix, is presented. We show that the distribution of the quadratic form is the same as the distribution of a weighted sum of non central Wishart distributed matrices. This is applied to derive the distribution of the sample covariance between the rows of X when the expectation is the same for every column and is estimated with the regular mean.     

On the Exact Finite Sample Distribution of the L 1-FCvM Test Statistic

We derive the exact finite sample distribution of the L₁ -version of the Fisz–Cramér–von Mises test statistic (FCvM ₁). We first characterize the set of all distinct sample p-p plots for two balanced samples of size n absent ties. Next, we order this set according to the corresponding value of FCvM ₁. Finally, we link these values to the probabilities that the underlying p-p plots emerge. Comparing the finite sample distribution with the (known) limiting distribution shows that the latter can always be used for hypothesis testing: although for finite samples the critical percentiles of the limiting distribution differ from the exact values, this will not lead to differences in the rejection of the underlying hypothesis.     

On the distribution of quotient of random variables conditioned to the positive quadrant

Abstract

Motivated by Caginalp and Caginalp [Physica A—Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 499, 2018, 457–471], we derive the exact distribution of X/Y conditioned on X?>?0, Y?>?0 for more than ten classes of distributions, including the bivariate t, bivariate Cauchy, bivariate Lomax, Arnold and Strauss’ bivariate exponential, Balakrishna and Shiji’s bivariate exponential, Mohsin et al.’s bivariate exponential, Morgenstern type bivariate exponential, bivariate gamma exponential and bivariate alpha skew normal distributions. The results can be useful in finance and other areas.     

Skewed Bessel function distributions with application to rainfall data

Skewed distributions have attracted significant attention in the last few years. In this article, a skewed Bessel function distribution with the probability density function (pdf) f(x)=2 g (x) G (λ x) is introduced, where g (·) and G (·) are taken, respectively, to be the (pdf) and the cumulative distribution function of the Bessel function distribution [McKay, A.T., 1932, A Bessel function distribution, Biometrica, 24, 39–44]. Several particular cases of this distribution are identified and various representations for its moments derived. Estimation procedures by the method of maximum likelihood are also derived. Finally, an application is provided to rainfall data from Orlando, Florida.     

The Likelihood Ratio Test with the Box–Cox Transformation for the Normal Mixture Problem: Power and Sample Size Study

Abstract

Through simulation and regression, we study the alternative distribution of the likelihood ratio test in which the null hypothesis postulates that the data are from a normal distribution after a restricted Box–Cox transformation and the alternative hypothesis postulates that they are from a mixture of two normals after a restricted (possibly different) Box–Cox transformation. The number of observations in the sample is called N. The standardized distance between components (after transformation) is D = (μ₂ ? μ₁)/σ, where μ₁ and μ₂ are the component means and σ² is their common variance. One component contains the fraction π of observed, and the other 1 ? π. The simulation results demonstrate a dependence of power on the mixing proportion, with power decreasing as the mixing proportion differs from 0.5. The alternative distribution appears to be a non-central chi-squared with approximately 2.48 + 10N ^?0.75 degrees of freedom and non-centrality parameter 0.174N(D ? 1.4)² × [π(1 ? π)]. At least 900 observations are needed to have power 95% for a 5% test when D = 2. For fixed values of D, power, and significance level, substantially more observations are necessary when π ≥ 0.90 or π ≤ 0.10. We give the estimated powers for the alternatives studied and a table of sample sizes needed for 50%, 80%, 90%, and 95% power.     

Bayesian inference for the generalized exponential distribution

The two-parameter generalized exponential (GE) distribution was introduced by Gupta and Kundu [Gupta, R.D. and Kundu, D., 1999, Generalized exponential distribution. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 41(2), 173–188.]. It was observed that the GE can be used in situations where a skewed distribution for a nonnegative random variable is needed. In this article, the Bayesian estimation and prediction for the GE distribution, using informative priors, have been considered. Importance sampling is used to estimate the parameters, as well as the reliability function, and the Gibbs and Metropolis samplers data sets are used to predict the behavior of further observations from the distribution. Two data sets are used to illustrate the Bayesian procedure.     

C472. The expected value of a conditional variance: An upper bound

The article derives Bartlett corrections for improving the chi-square approximation to the likelihood ratio statistics in a class of symmetric nonlinear regression models. This is a wide class of models which encompasses the t model and several other symmetric distributions with longer-than normal tails. In this paper we present, in matrix notation, Bartlett corrections to likelihood ratio statistics in nonlinear regression models with errors that follow a symmetric distribution. We generalize the results obtained by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Arellano-Valle, R. B. (1996). Modified likelihood ratio and score tests in linear regression models using the t distribution. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 10, 15–33, who considered a t distribution for the errors, and by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Uribe-Opazo, M. A. (2001). Corrected likelihood ratio tests in a class of symmetric linear regression models. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 15, 49–67, who considered a symmetric linear regression model. The formulae derived are simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several Bartlett corrections in a variety of important models. We also present simulation results comparing the sizes and powers of the usual likelihood ratio tests and their Bartlett corrected versions.     

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1–39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff–Nielsen [Barndorff–Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343–365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33–53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655–661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff–Nielsen's adjustment.     

On left-truncating and mixing Poisson distributions

ABSTRACT

The distributions obtained by left-truncating at k a mixed Poisson distribution, denoted kT-MP, and those obtained by mixing previously left-truncated Poisson distributions, denoted M-kTP, are characterized by means of their probability generating function. The main consequence is that every kT-MP distribution is a M-kTP distribution, but not the other way around.     

On the matrix-variate generalized hyperbolic distribution and its Bayesian applications

In the first part of the paper, we introduce the matrix-variate generalized hyperbolic distribution by mixing the matrix normal distribution with the matrix generalized inverse Gaussian density. The p-dimensional generalized hyperbolic distribution of [Barndorff-Nielsen, O. (1978). Hyperbolic distributions and distributions on hyperbolae. Scand. J. Stat., 5, 151–157], the matrix-T distribution and many well-known distributions are shown to be special cases of the new distribution. Some properties of the distribution are also studied. The second part of the paper deals with the application of the distribution in the Bayesian analysis of the normal multivariate linear model.     

Testing a covariance matrix: exact null distribution of its likelihood criterion

For X～ N _p (μ, Σ) testing H _o:Σ = Σ ₀, with Σ ₀ known, relies at present on an approximation of the null-distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic.

We present here the exact null distribution and also its computation, hence providing a precise tool that can be used in small sample cases.