Structured probability statements

Structured probability statements are defined in an additive and reduced structured model. Under weak assumptions, an estimating set in a structured probability statement is a confidence region, but the corresponding structured probability may differ from the confidence coefficient. Elementary examples are given to show that this difference is an advantage when some estimating sets are empty or consist of the whole parameter space. A structured distribution (Plante 1979) is an extension of a probability measure closely related to structured probability statements.     

Indifference-zone ranking and selection: confidence intervals for true achieved P(CD)

In this paper we present procedures which attempt to allow experimenters to take at least partial advantage of more-favorable configurations of the population parameters (without, in the process, sacrificing precise probability statements about the inferences made) by obtaining confidence intervals for the true probability of a correct decision, regarded as a function of the true unknown underlying parameter values.     

Confidence bounds and selection of the t best populations

Confidence statements about location (or scale) parameters associated with K populations, which may be used in making selection decisions about those populations, are investigated. When a subset of fixed size t is selected from the K populations a lower bound is obtained for the minimum selected parameter as a function of the maximum non-selected parameter. Tables are produced for the normal means case when the variance is common but unknown. It is pointed out that these tables may be used to find confidence intervals discussed by Hsu (1984     

Confidence Intervals in Regression That Utilize Uncertain Prior Information About a Vector Parameter

Consider a linear regression model with independent normally distributed errors. Suppose that the scalar parameter of interest is a specified linear combination of the components of the regression parameter vector. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that a parameter vector, consisting of specified distinct linear combinations of these components, takes a given value. Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for the parameter of interest is the scaled expected length, defined to be the expected length of this confidence interval divided by the expected length of the standard confidence interval for this parameter, with the same confidence coefficient. We say that a confidence interval for the parameter of interest utilizes this uncertain prior information if (a) the scaled expected length of this interval is substantially less than one when the prior information is correct, (b) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too large and (c) this confidence interval reverts to the standard confidence interval, with the same confidence coefficient, when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. We present a new confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest, with specified confidence coefficient, that utilizes this uncertain prior information. A factorial experiment with one replicate is used to illustrate the application of this new confidence interval.     

Approximate Confidence Limits for a Proportion of the Pólya Distribution

The problem of constructing approximate confidence limits for a proportion parameter of the Pólya distribution is discussed. Three different methods for determining approximate one-sided and two-sided confidence limits for that parameter of the Pólya distribution have been proposed and compared. Particular cases of those confidence bounds are confidence intervals for the parameter of the binomial and the hypergeometric distributions.     

Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space

For a normal distribution with known variance, the standard confidence interval of the location parameter is derived from the classical Neyman procedure. When the parameter space is known to be restricted, the standard confidence interval is arguably unsatisfactory. Recent articles have addressed this problem and proposed confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is not less than zero. In this article, we propose a new confidence interval, rp interval, and derive the Bayesian credible interval and likelihood ratio interval for general restricted parameter space. We compare these intervals with the standard interval and the minimax interval. Simulation studies are undertaken to assess the performances of these confidence intervals.     

Statistical Issues in Fisheries' Stock Assessments*

Decisions concerning the management of fisheries are founded on confidence statements for interest parameters such as biomass and exploitation rate, derived from complex structural models that describe the dynamics of fisheries. We identify four generic statistical issues and focus on how they impact on the reliability of those confidence statements: (a) parameters for which the data have little or no information; (b) competing structural relationships; (c) weighting of observations; and (d) alternative methods for computing confidence statements. Our purpose is to give an exposition of how these issues impact on fisheries' analyses, with the intent of stimulating thought on more effective alternatives. We describe the fisheries' management context and use two specific studies to illustrate how these generic statistical issues impact on fisheries assessment results. It is demonstrated that these statistical issues can have a profound impact on fishery management decisions and that established approaches to handle them have not been fully developed.     

On a confidence interval about a parameter estimated by a ratio of normal random variables

A confidence interval is geometrically constructed about a parameter estimated by the ratio of bivariate normal random variables. The resulting confidence interval is equivalent to that of Fieller's theorem. The geometric construction shown that such intervals are conservative. Bioassay examples are used to demonstrate the technique.     

Testing and Confidence estimation of the Mean of a multidimensional Gaussian Process

From the sequential observation of a multidimensional continuous time Gaussian process, whose mean vector depends linearly of a multidimensional parameter, we consider the confidential estimation of the parameter value and the testing problem of a simple hypothesis about the parameter, in presence of a nuisance variance parameter. The method is based on a previously obtained [cf. 4] point estimate for the case of a known covariance structure. We first see that this estimate is, in fact, independent of the variance parameter. For the hypotheses testing problem, the invariance under certain groups of transformations and the partial sufficiency allows to construct optimal terminal tests. Furthermore we determine the observation time necessary to control its power function. These testing results may be translated in terms of most accurate confidence sets. If the observation is stopped according to the diameter of the confidence set, under some condition, the confidence level is preserved.     

Structural inference for parameters of a power function distribution

We consider the problem of statistical inference on the parameters of the three parameter power function distribution based on a full unordered sample of observations or a type II censored ordered sample of observations. The inference philosophy used is the theory of structural inference. We state inference procedures which yield inferential statements about the three unknown parameters. A numerical example is given to illustrate these procedures. It is seen that within the context of this example the inference procedures of this paper do not encounter certain difficulties associated with classical maximum likelihood based procedures. Indeed it has been our numerical experience that this behavior is typical within the context of that subclass of the three parameter power function distribution to which this example belongs.     

A reexamination of stein's antifiducial example

In Stein's 1959 example, for any sample with n sufficiently large, there is a confidence set embedded simultaneously within two regular confidence belts—one with coverage frequency smaller than an arbitrary positive ϵ, the other with coverage frequency larger than 1 — ϵ. Thus, Stein's example may be seen as an extreme case of mutually conflicting confidence statements, illustrating a possibility anticipated and denounced by Fisher.     

Asymptotic normality of the lengths of a class of nonparametric confidence intervals for a regression parameter

In the linear regression model, the asymptotic distributions of certain functions of confidence bounds of a class of confidence intervals for the regression parameter arc investigated. The class of confidence intervals we consider in this paper are based on the usual linear rank statistics (signed as well as unsigned). Under suitable assumptions, if the confidence intervals are based on the signed linear rank statistics, it is established that the lengths, properly normalized, of the confidence intervals converge in law to the standard normal distributions; if the confidence intervals arc based on the unsigned linear rank statistics, it is then proved that a linear function of the confidence bounds converges in law to a normal distribution.     

A Note on the Use of Confidence Limits following Rejection of a Null Hypothesis

The equivalence of some tests of hypothesis and confidence limits is well known. When, however, the confidence limits are computed only after rejection of a null hypothesis, the usual unconditional confidence limits are no longer valid. This refers to a strict two-stage inference procedure: first test the hypothesis of interest and if the test results in a rejection decision, then proceed with estimating the relevant parameter. Under such a situation, confidence limits should be computed conditionally on the specified outcome of the test under which estimation proceeds. Conditional confidence sets will be longer than unconditional confidence sets and may even contain values of the parameter previously rejected by the test of hypothesis. Conditional confidence limits for the mean of a normal population with known variance are used to illustrate these results. In many applications, these results indicate that conditional estimation is probably not good practice.     

Conservative confidence intervals for a single parameter

The method of constructing confidence intervals from hypothesis tests is studied in the case in which there is a single unknown parameter and is proved to provide confidence intervals with coverage probability that is at least the nominal level. The confidence intervals obtained by the method in several different contexts are seen to compare favorably with confidence intervals obtained by traditional methods. The traditional intervals are seen to have coverage probability less than the nominal level in several instances, This method can be applied to all confidence interval problems and reduces to the traditional method when an exact pivotal statistic is known.     

Improved confidence intervals for a binomial parameter using the bayesian method

Constructing confidence intervals for a binomial proportion parameter using the Bayesian technique is considered. For an appropriate choice of priors, the proposed Bayes confidence intervals may, in frequentist performance, uniformly improve the traditional C-P (Clopper and Pearson, 1934) confidence intervals when the sample size is not large (n < 30).     

Empirical Likelihood Confidence Region for the Parameter in a Partially Linear Errors-in-Variables Model

In this article, a partially linear errors-in-variables model is considered, and empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic for the unknown parameter in the model is suggested. It is proved that the proposed statistic is asymptotically standard chi-square distribution under some suitable conditions, and hence it can be used to construct the confidence region of the parameter. A simulation study indicates that, in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths of the confidence intervals, the proposed method performs better than the least-squares method.     

Multiple comparisons with a control for exponential location parameters under heteroscedasticity

In this paper, a new design-oriented two-stage two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals, for comparing several exponential populations with control population in terms of location parameters under heteroscedasticity, are proposed. If there is a prior information that the location parameter of k exponential populations are not less than the location parameter of control population, one-sided simultaneous confidence intervals provide more inferential sensitivity than two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals. But the two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals have advantages over the one-sided simultaneous confidence intervals as they provide both lower and upper bounds for the parameters of interest. The proposed design-oriented two-stage two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals provide the benefits of both the two-stage one-sided and two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals. When the additional sample at the second stage may not be available due to the experimental budget shortage or other factors in an experiment, one-stage two-sided confidence intervals are proposed, which combine the advantages of one-stage one-sided and two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals. The critical constants are obtained using the techniques given in Lam [9,10]. These critical constant are compared with the critical constants obtained by Bonferroni inequality techniques and found that critical constant obtained by Lam [9,10] are less conservative than critical constants computed from the Bonferroni inequality technique. Implementation of the proposed simultaneous confidence intervals is demonstrated by a numerical example.     

Hybrid regions for post-change mean in a sequence of normal variables

The hybrid bootstrap uses resampling ideas to extend the duality approach to the interval estimation for a parameter of interest when there are nuisance parameters. The confidence region constructed by the hybrid bootstrap may perform much better than the ordinary bootstrap region in a situation where the data provide substantial information about the nuisance parameter, but limited information about the parameter of interest. We apply this method to estimate the post-change mean after a change is detected by a stopping procedure in a sequence of independent normal variables. Since distribution theory in change point problems is generally a challenge, we use bootstrap simulation to find empirical distributions of test statistics and calculate critical thresholds. Both likelihood ratio and Bayesian test statistics are considered to set confidence regions for post-change means in the normal model. In the simulation studies, the performance of hybrid regions are compared with that of ordinary bootstrap regions in terms of the widths and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals.     

Structural inference on the parameter of the rayleigh distribution from doubly censored samples

We consider the problem of statistical inference on the scale parameter of the Rayleigh Distribution from a type II doubly censored sample, using a Structural Inference approach. We derive the Structural Distribution for the scale parameter. The properties of this distribution are used to obtain different inferential statements about the parameter.     

An inclusion-consistent solution to the problem of absurd confidence statements: 1. Consistent exact confidence-interval estimation

An example is given of a uniformly most accurate unbiased confidence belt which yields absurd confidence statements with 100% occurrence. In several known examples, as well as in the 100%-occurrence counterexample, an optimal confidence belt provides absurd statements because it is inclusion-inconsistent with either a null or an all-inclusive belt or both. It is concluded that confidence-theory optimality criteria alone are inadequate for practice, and that a consistency criterion is required. An approach based upon inclusion consistency of belts [C(x) C C C(x), for some x, implies γ ≤ γ for confidence coefficients] is suggested for exact interval estimation in continuous parametric models. Belt inclusion consistency, the existence of a proper-pivotal vector [a pivotal vector T(X, θ) such that the effective range of T(x,.) is independent of x], and the existence of a confidence distribution are proven mutually equivalent. This consistent approach being restrictive, it is shown, using Neyman's anomalous 1954 example, how to determine whether any given parametric function can be estimated consistently and exactly or whether a consistent nonexact solution must be attempted.