Efficient Use of Two Decks of Cards in Randomized Response Sampling

This paper extends the work of Russell (1976). Proof Is given that, for many parameter sets, all O:XB designs belonging to the set are connected. It is shown how an (M,S)-optinal design nay be selected from the M-optimal designs of a given parameter set. The efficiencies of these (M,S)-optimal designs are displayed, and it is concluded that the (M,S)-optimality criterion is useful for selecting designs of high efficiency.     

中国上市公司并购绩效的实证研究

市场总体上对并购事件产生了积极的反应,在并购日后几天,出现了超额收益;并购当年和第一年业绩好转,得到了短期改善,但是随着时间的推移,仅仅在并购后的第二年就有了下滑的趋势。在四种并购类型的样本分析中,可以看出购买股权和母公司改造类上市公司的业绩改善明显,而无偿划拨类上市公司无明显变化,再次说明政府控制决策的影响是短期的,不能真正提高市场的有效机制。     

On the estimation and application of max-stable processes

The theory of max-stable processes generalizes traditional univariate and multivariate extreme value theory by allowing for processes indexed by a time or space variable. We consider a particular class of max-stable processes, known as M4 processes, that are particularly well adapted to modeling the extreme behavior of multiple time series. We develop procedures for determining the order of an M4 process and for estimating the parameters. To illustrate the methods, some examples are given for modeling jumps in returns in multivariate financial time series. We introduce a new measure to quantify and predict the extreme co-movements in price returns.     

Computing the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type

This paper considers the computation of the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type, given that the level is not greater than a predefined threshold. This problem has been studied recently and a computational algorithm is proposed under the assumption that matrices representing downward jumps are nonsingular. We first show that this assumption can be eliminated in a general setting of Markov chains of level-dependent G/G/1-type. Next we develop a computational algorithm for the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type, by modifying the above-mentioned algorithm slightly. In principle, our algorithm is applicable to any Markov chain of level-dependent M/G/1-type, if the Markov chain is irreducible and positive-recurrent. Furthermore, as an input to the algorithm, we can set an error bound for the computed conditional distribution, which is a notable feature of our algorithm. Some numerical examples are also provided.     

断点检定与价格预警——基于中国货币供应量结构变化的实证研究

为了揭示货币供应量结构变化的断点检定具有价格预警的作用,运用1999年12月至2012年4月中国流通中的货币、狭义货币、广义货币数据进行结构变化的内生断点检验,分析货币供应量的结构变化对价格产生影响的机理。在此基础上,结合CPI价格指数验证断点检定的价格预警功效。结果显示：各个层次的货币供应量序列是分段平稳的,在99％、97．5％、95％置信水平上检出的7个内生断点均具有优良的价格预警效果。因此,基于货币供应量结构变化的断点检定以及预警价格的波动,在理论和实践上都是可行的。     

Letter to the editor the asymptotic distribution of the process capability index cpmk

In theorem 3.1 of Chen and Hsu (1995) an expressin for an upper confidence bound for C_pmk in the case when µ = M and so C_pmk = C_pm, is given as a multiple of C_pm. However, if the value µ = M known then it would be more reasonable to use the estimator obtained by replacing X_n by M.     

Some Bounds on the Distribution of Certain Quadratic Forms in Normal Random Variables

The paper derives bounds on the distribution of the quadratic forms Z = y ^H( X Γ X ^H)⁻¹ y and W = y ^H(σ² I + X Γ X ^H)⁻¹ y , where the elements of the M × 1 vector y and the M × N matrix X are independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) complex zero mean Normal variables, Γ is some N × N diagonal matrix with positive diagonal elements, I , is the identity, σ² is a constant and ^H denotes the Hermitian transpose. The bounds are convenient for numerical work and appear to be tight for small values of M . This work has applications in digital mobile radio for a specific channel where M antennas are used to receive a signal with N interferers. Some of these applications in radio communication systems are discussed.     

A computational algorithm for the loss probability in the M/G/1+PH queue

This article develops a computational algorithm for the loss probability in the stationary M/G/1 queue with impatient customers whose impatience times follow a phase-type distribution (M/G/1+PH). The algorithm outputs the loss probability, along with an upper-bound of its numerical error due to truncation, and it is readily applicable to the M/D/1+PH, M/PH/1+PH, and M/Pareto/1+PH queues.     

On Block Skip Free Transition Matrices and First Passage Times

Starting from an abstract setting which extends the property “skip free to the left” for transition matrices to a partition of the state space, we develop bounds for the mean hitting time of a Markov chain to an arbitrary subset from an arbitrary initial law. We apply our theory to the embedded Markov chains associated with the M/G/1 and the GI/M/1 queueing systems. We also illustrate its applicability with an asymptotic analysis of a non-reversible Markovian star queueing network with losses.     

A NOTE ON VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR THE GENERALIZED REGRESSION PREDICTOR

The generalized regression (GREG) predictor is used for estimating a finite population total when the study variable is well‐related to the auxiliary variable. In 1997, Chaudhuri & Roy provided an optimal estimator for the variance of the GREG predictor within a class of non‐homogeneous quadratic estimators (H) under a certain superpopulation model M. They also found an inequality concerning the expected variances of the estimators of the variance of the GREG predictor belonging to the class H under the model M. This paper shows that the derivation of the optimal estimator and relevant inequality, presented by Chaudhuri & Roy, are incorrect.     

中国上市公司并购前后的长期价值创造的实证研究——基于财务分析法的经营绩效的实证分析

国内外对公司并购的价值创造优劣的讨论从没有停止过,可谓“众说纷纭”。运用因子分析模型对2000年发生并购活动的69家样本公司建立综合因子得分函数,采用两配对样本T检验进行并购前后经营业绩综合得分是否有显著改变的显著性检验。弥补配对样本的T检验的不足,采取采用了两配对样本Sign检验和Wilcoxon检验相结合的非参数检验。实证研究发现：横向、纵向并购的并购当年及并购一年后绩效得到提高,但其后绩效下降,绩效下降的程度不大,从中国上市公司并购后的长期角度来看,总体上说明的横向、纵向并购活动有一定程度的创造价值或提高企业的经营绩效,但是由于很多年份没有通过检验,实证结果很难判断其效应的显著性。     

Efficiency of schemes of sampling from the inverse gaussian-weibull mixture model

The objective of this paper is to study the efficiency of sampling schemes suggested by Hosmer(1973), termed models Ml and M2, relative to the regular random sampling, termed model MO, when samples are drawn from a population having the Inverse Gaussian-Weibull (IG-W) mixture distribution.

It has been shown that whether the efficiency is based on relative variances of the maximum likelihood estimates (ML,E's) of the components of the vector of parameters or on the generalized variances of the MLE's of that vector, Hosmer's models Ml or M2 perform better than model MO.     

Bayes sequential estimation in a life test and asymptotic properties

For a life test without replacement on M machines, assuming an exponential distribution for failure times, the Bayes sequential procedure for estimating the failure rate is studied. Estimation error is assumed to be measured by one of a family of loss functions, and the cost of sampling consists of a cost per machine failure c, >, 0 and a cost per unit time c > 0. Assuming a conjugate prior on 9, the Bayes sequential procedure and its asymptotic Bayesian and sampling theory properties are obtained as c1, z9 - 0 and M + jointly.     

A comparison of selection procedures for selecting the best normal population under heterogeneity of variance

This study examines the comparative probabilities of making a correct selection when using the means procedure (M), the medians procedure (D) and the rank-sum procedure (S) to correctly select the normal population with the largest mean under heterogeneity of variance. The comparison is conducted by using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques for 3, 4, and 5 normal populations under the condition that equal sample sizes are taken from each population. The population means and standard deviations are assumed to be equally-spaced. Two types of heterogeneity of variance are considered: (1) associating larger means with larger variances, and (2) associating larger means with smaller variances.     

Bayes estimation of reliability for the two-parameter lognormal distribution

Bayes estimators of reliability for the lognormal failure distribution with two parameters (M,∑) are obtained both for informative priors of normal-gamma type and for the vague prior of Jeffreys. The estimators are in terms of the t-distribution function. The Bayes estimators are compared with the maximum likelihood and minimum variance unbiased estimators of reliabil-ity using Monte Carlo simulations.     

Asymptotic behaviour of a test statistic for detection of change in mean of vectors

The paper gives an asymptotic distribution of a test statistic for detecting a change in a mean of random vectors with dependent components. The studied test statistic has a form of a maximum of a square Euclidean norms of vectors with components being standardized partial cumulative sums of deviations from means. The limit distribution was obtained using a result of Piterbarg [1994. High deviations for multidimensional stationary Gaussian processes with independent components. In: Zolotarev, V.M. (Ed.), Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, pp. 197–210].     

Estimating the mean of the selected uniform population

Let π_i(i=1,2,…K) be independent U(0,?_i) populations. Let Y_i denote the largest observation based on a random sample of size n from the i-th population. for selecting the best populaton, that is the one associated with the largest ?_i, we consider the natural selection rule, according to which the population corresponding to the largest Y_i is selected. In this paper, the estimation of M. the mean of the selected population is considered. The natural estimator is positively biased. The UMVUE (uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator) of M is derived using the (U,V)-method of Robbins (1987) and its asymptotic distribution is found. We obtain a minimax estimator of M for K≤4 and a class of admissible estimators among those of the form cY_max. For the case K = 2, the UMVUE is improved using the Brewster-Zidek (1974) Technique with respect to the squared error loss function L₁ and the scale-invariant loss function L₂. For the case K = 2, the MSE'S of all the estimators are compared for selected values of n and ρ=?₁/(?₁+?₂).     

Estimating the Population Coefficient of Variation by Confidence Intervals

Several researchers considered various interval estimators for estimating the population coefficient of variation (CV) of symmetric and skewed distributions. Since they considered at different times and under different simulation conditions, their performances are not comparable as a whole. In this article, an attempt has been made to review some existing estimators along with some proposed methods and compare them under the same simulation condition. In particular, we have considered Hendricks and Robey, Mckay, Miller, Sharma and Krishna, Curto and Pinto, and also some bootstrap proposed interval estimators for estimating the population CV. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the performance of the estimators. Both average widths and coverage probabilities are considered as a criterion of the good estimators. Two real life health related data sets are analyzed to illustrate the findings of the article. Based on the simulation study, some possible good interval estimators have been recommended for the practitioners.     

Improving dispersion tests by symmetrization

Comparing the variances of several independent samples is a classic problem and many tests have been proposed in the literature. Conover et al. [Conover, W.J., Johnson, M.E. and Johnson, M.M., 1981, A comparative study of tests for homogeneity of variances with applications to the outer continental self bidding data. Technometrics, 23, 351–361.] and Shoemaker [Shoemaker, L.H., 1995, Tests for difference in dispersion based on quantiles. The American Statistician, 49 (2), 179–182.] find that the existing tests lack power for skewed sampling distributions. To address this problem, we studied the effect of an a priori symmetrization of the data on the performance of tests for homogeneity of variances. This article also updates the comprehensive comparative study of Conover et al.     

On the Breakdown Properties of Some Multivariate M‐Functionals*

Abstract. For probability distributions on ? ^q, a detailed study of the breakdown properties of some multivariate M‐functionals related to Tyler's [Ann. Statist. 15 (1987) 234] ‘distribution‐free’ M‐functional of scatter is given. These include a symmetrized version of Tyler's M‐functional of scatter, and the multivariate t M‐functionals of location and scatter. It is shown that for ‘smooth’ distributions, the (contamination) breakdown point of Tyler's M‐functional of scatter and of its symmetrized version are 1/q and , respectively. For the multivariate t M‐functional which arises from the maximum likelihood estimate for the parameters of an elliptical t distribution on ν ≥ 1 degrees of freedom the breakdown point at smooth distributions is 1/( q + ν). Breakdown points are also obtained for general distributions, including empirical distributions. Finally, the sources of breakdown are investigated. It turns out that breakdown can only be caused by contaminating distributions that are concentrated near low‐dimensional subspaces.