Forecasting future values of changing sequences

Sequences of independent random variables are observed and on the basis of these observations future values of the process are forecast. The Bayesian predictive density of k future observations for normal, exponential, and binomial sequences which change exactly once are analyzed for several cases. It is seen that the Bayesian predictive densities are mixtures of standard probability distributions. For example, with normal sequences the Bayesian predictive density is a mixture of either normal or t-distributions, depending on whether or not the common variance is known. The mixing probabilities are the same as those occurring in the corresponding posterior distribution of the mean(s) of the sequence. The predictive mass function of the number of future successes that will occur in a changing Bernoulli sequence is computed and point and interval predictors are illustrated.     

The exact distribution and density functions of a pre-test estimator of the error variance in a linear regression model with proxy variables

We consider a linear regression model when some independent variables are unobservable, but proxy variables are available instead of them. We derive the distribution and density functions of a pre-test estimator of the error variance after a pre-test for the null hypothesis that the coefficients for the unobservable variables are zeros. Based on the density function, we show that when the critical value of the pre-test is unity, the coverage probability in the interval estimation of the error variance is maximum.     

On the distribution of products of independent beta variates

This paper concerns an inquiry into the problem of generating closed form expressions for the cumulative distribution and probability density functions of products of independent beta variates. Recursive analytical procedures for constructing the equational forms of these functions-from their Mellin inversion integral representations, via the Cauchy residue theorem-are described. A numerical example illustrating details of the construction of a computable form of the distribution function of the product of three independent beta variates is also included.     

The distribution of the product of two independent generalized trapezoidal random variables

ABSTRACT

In this article, we derive the probability density function (pdf) of the product of two independent generalized trapezoidal random variables having different supports, in closed form, by considering all possible cases. We also show that the results for the product of two triangular and uniform random variables follow as special cases of our main result. As an illustration, we obtain pdf of product for a suitably constrained set of parameters and plot some graphs using MATLAB, which express variation in pdf with change in different parameters of the generalized trapezoidal distribution.     

Generalized modified slash distribution with applications

Abstract

In this article a generalization of the modified slash distribution is introduced. This model is based on the quotient of two independent random variables, whose distributions are a normal and a one-parameter gamma, respectively. The resulting distribution is a new model whose kurtosis is greater than other slash distributions. The probability density function, its properties, moments, and kurtosis coefficient are obtained. Inference based on moment and maximum likelihood methods is carried out. The multivariate version is also introduced. Two real data sets are considered in which it is shown that the new model fits better to symmetric data with heavy tails than other slash extensions previously introduced in literature.     

On approximating the distribution of indefinite quadratic forms

This paper provides a simple methodology for approximating the distribution of indefinite quadratic forms in normal random variables. It is shown that the density function of a positive definite quadratic form can be approximated in terms of the product of a gamma density function and a polynomial. An extension which makes use of a generalized gamma density function is also considered. Such representations are based on the moments of a quadratic form, which can be determined from its cumulants by means of a recursive formula. After expressing an indefinite quadratic form as the difference of two positive definite quadratic forms, one can obtain an approximation to its density function by means of the transformation of variable technique. An explicit representation of the resulting density approximant is given in terms of a degenerate hypergeometric function. An easily implementable algorithm is provided. The proposed approximants produce very accurate percentiles over the entire range of the distribution. Several numerical examples illustrate the results. In particular, the methodology is applied to the Durbin–Watson statistic which is expressible as the ratio of two quadratic forms in normal random variables. Quadratic forms being ubiquitous in statistics, the approximating technique introduced herewith has numerous potential applications. Some relevant computational considerations are also discussed.     

Moments of generalized quadratic forms and distributions of certain multivariate test statistics

Summary Moments and distributions of quadratic forms or quadratic expressions in normal variables are available in literature. Such quadratic expressions are shown to be equivalent to a linear function of independent central or noncentral chi-square variables. Some results on linear functions of generalized quadratic forms are also available in literature. Here we consider an arbitrary linear function of matrix-variate gamma variables. Moments of the determinant of such a linear function are evaluated when the matrix-variate gammas are independently distributed. By using these results, arbitrary non-null moments as well as the non-null distribution of the likelihood ratio criterion for testing the hypothesis of equality of covariance matrices in independent multivariate normal populations are derived. As a related result, the distribution of a linear function of independent matrix-variate gamma random variables, which includes linear functions of independent Wishart matrices, is also obtained. Some properties of generalized special functions of several matrix arguments are used in deriving these results.     

Correction

In many probability and mathematical statistics courses the probability generating function (PGF) is typically overlooked in favor of the more utilized moment generating function. However, for certain types of random variables, the PGF may be more appealing. For example, sums of independent, non-negative, integer-valued random variables with finite support are easily studied via the PGF. In particular, the exact distribution of the sum can easily be calculated. Several illustrative classroom examples, with varying degrees of difficulty, are presented. All of the examples have been implemented using the R statistical software package.     

A model-free feature screening approach based on kernel density estimation

In this article, a new model-free feature screening method named after probability density (mass) function distance (PDFD) correlation is presented for ultrahigh-dimensional data analysis. We improve the fused-Kolmogorov filter (F-KOL) screening procedure through probability density distribution. The proposed method is also fully nonparametric and can be applied to more general types of predictors and responses, including discrete and continuous random variables. Kernel density estimate method and numerical integration are applied to obtain the estimator we proposed. The results of simulation studies indicate that the fused-PDFD performs better than other existing screening methods, such as F-KOL filter, sure-independent screening (SIS), sure independent ranking and screening (SIRS), distance correlation sure-independent screening (DCSIS) and robust ranking correlation screening (RRCS). Finally, we demonstrate the validity of fused-PDFD by a real data example.     

The probability density function of process capability index Cpmk

We derive an explicit and computationally convenient form for the probability density function of the estimator of the process capability index C_pmk ( Pearn, Kotz and Johnson ), when sampling from a normal distribution.     

Screening procedures using quadratic forms

In quality control, a performance variable having a two-sided specification limit is common for assessing lot quality. Sometimes it is difficult or impossible to measure the performance variable directly; for example, when testing is destructive, expensive, or when the performance variable is related to the lifetime of the product. However, it may happen that there are several concomitant variables which are easily measured and which correlate highly with the variable of interest. Thus, one may use measurements on these variables to select or screen product which will have a high conditional probability of meeting product specification. We consider this situation when all variables have a joint multivariate normal distribution and the specification limits on the performance variable are two-sided.     

A class of weighted normal distributions and its variants useful for inequality constrained analysis

This article develops a class of the weighted normal distributions for which the probability density function has the form of a product of a normal density and a weight function. The class constitutes marginal distributions obtained from various kinds of doubly truncated bivariate normal distributions. This class of distributions strictly includes the normal, skew–normal and two-piece skew–normal and is useful for selection modelling and inequality constrained normal mean analysis. Some distributional properties and Bayesian perspectives of the class are given. Probabilistic representation of the distributions is also given. The representation is shown to be straightforward to specify distribution and to implement computation, with output readily adapted for required analysis. Necessary theories and illustrative examples are provided.     

A class of neutral to the right priors induced by superposition of beta processes

A random distribution function on the positive real line which belongs to the class of neutral to the right priors is defined. It corresponds to the superposition of independent beta processes at the cumulative hazard level. The definition is constructive and starts with a discrete time process with random probability masses obtained from suitably defined products of independent beta random variables. The continuous time version is derived as the corresponding infinitesimal weak limit and is described in terms of completely random measures. It takes the interpretation of the survival distribution resulting from independent competing failure times. We discuss prior specification and illustrate posterior inference on a real data example.     

A Bayesian analysis of ratios of proportions in tree-structured experiments

This paper concerns the calculation of Bayes estimators of ratios of outcome proportions generated by the replication of an arbitrary tree-structured compound Bernoulli experiment under a multinomial-type sampling scheme. Here the compound Bernoulli experiment is treated as a collection of linear sequences of independent generalized Bernoulli trials having Dirichlet type 1 prior probability distributions. A method of obtaining a closed-form expression of the cumulative distribution function of the ratio of proportions – from its Meijer G-function representation – is described. Bayes point and interval estimators are directly obtained from the properties the distribution function as well as its related probability density function. In addition, the density function is used to derive the probability mass function of the predictive distribution any two associated outcome categories of the experiment – under an inverse multinomial-type sampling scheme. An illustrative numerical example concerning a Bayesian analysis of a simple tree-structured mortality model for medical patients who have suffered an acute myocardial infarction (heart attack) is also included.     

Attaining specified reliability in component design: a stochastic approximation approach

In the design, manufacture and maintenance of components, particular attention is paid to component reliability R, the probability that the strength X of a component will exceed a stress Y to which it will be subjected. The problem addressed here is the design (or redesign) of a compoFent to meet a specified reliability R*. While certain characteristics of the random variables X and Y are assumed (symmetry of X about a unique median for example) it is not assumed that the form of the distribution of (X,Y) is known, nor that X and Y are independent. A design is recomnended based on a variation of the stochastic approximation procedure due to Dupac and Kral (1972) which in general estimates recursively the root of a regression curve assuming both independent and dependent regression variables are subject to experimental error.     

Distribution of products of independently distributed pathway random variables

A lot of work has been done on products and ratios of random variables by Provost and his co-workers, see, for example, Provost [S.B. Provost, The exact distribution of the ratio of a linear combination of chi-square variables over the root of a product of chi-square variables, Canad. J. Statist. 14 (1986), pp. 61–67; S.B. Provost, The distribution function of a statistic for testing the equality of scale parameters in two gamma populations, Metrika 36 (1989), pp. 337–345]. Here, we extend this idea by introducing a pathway model. The exact density functions of the products of pathway random variables are obtained using the Mellin transform technique. Their computable series forms are derived. The particular cases of the derived results are shown to be associated with the thermonuclear functions and reaction rate probability integral in the theory of nuclear reaction rate, Krätzel integral in applied analyses and inverse Gaussian density in stochastic processes. Graphical representations of the density functions of the product of random variables for the different values of the pathway parameters are shown. The new probability model is fitted to revenue data.     

Accurate and efficient numerical calculation of stable densities via optimized quadrature and asymptotics

Stable distributions are an important class of infinitely divisible probability distributions, of which two special cases are the Cauchy distribution and the normal distribution. Aside from a few special cases, the density function for stable distributions has no known analytic form and is expressible only through the variate’s characteristic function or other integral forms. In this paper, we present numerical schemes for evaluating the density function for stable distributions, its gradient, and distribution function in various parameter regimes of interest, some of which had no preexisting efficient method for their computation. The novel evaluation schemes consist of optimized generalized Gaussian quadrature rules for integral representations of the density function, complemented by asymptotic expansions near various values of the shape and argument parameters. We report several numerical examples illustrating the efficiency of our methods. The resulting code has been made available online.     

Statistical analysis for Kumaraswamy’s distribution based on record data

In this paper we review some results that have been derived on record values for some well known probability density functions and based on m records from Kumaraswamy’s distribution we obtain estimators for the two parameters and the future sth record value. These estimates are derived using the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. In the Bayesian approach, the two parameters are assumed to be random variables and estimators for the parameters and for the future sth record value are obtained, when we have observed m past record values, using the well known squared error loss (SEL) function and a linear exponential (LINEX) loss function. The findings are illustrated with actual and computer generated data.     

Bayes Risk Consistency of Nonparametric Bayes Density Estimates2

Even though the literature on nonparametric density estimation is large, the literature on Bayesian estimation of the density function is relatively small. The reason is the lack of a suitable prior over the space of probability density functions. There have been attempts to define priors over the space of probability measures, but they have not yielded any workable prior for the purpose of density estimation. Dubins & Freedman (1963) have denned random distribution functions which are singular with probability one. Kraft (1964) has denned a class of distribution functions which have derivatives but not continuous derivatives and hence are not suitable for density estimation. The only really convenient prior is the Dirichlet process prior due to Ferguson (1973), but unfortunately this prior concentrates all its mass over the discrete distribution with a dense set of jumps. Recently Lo (1978) has overcome this difficulty by taking convolution of the Dirichlet process with a fixed continuous kernel. In Section 2, the existence of a version of the posterior distribution and the conditional expectation for arbitrary prior over the space of continuous density functions are discussed. The Bayes risk consistency of the Bayes estimator is discussed in Section 3. The Bayes estimator and its properties with respect to two specific prior distributions are discussed in Section 4. In Section 5 some negative results are presented. Finally a numerical example is given in Section 6.     

Smooth nonparametric estimation of thedistribution and density functions from record-breaking data

In some experiments, such as destructive stress testing and industrial quality control experiments, only values smaller than all previous ones are observed. Here, for such record-breaking data, kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function and smooth density estimation is considered. For a single record-breaking sample, consistent estimation is not possible, and replication is required for global results. For m independent record-breaking samples, the proposed distribution function and density estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal as m → ∞. Also, for small m, the mean squared errors and biases of the estimators and their smoothing parameters are investigated through computer simulations.