A log-linear regression model for the odd Weibull distribution with censored data

We introduce the log-odd Weibull regression model based on the odd Weibull distribution (Cooray, 2006). We derive some mathematical properties of the log-transformed distribution. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models some widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influence. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, some simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are given and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to check the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data.     

基于金融高频数据的ACD模型非参数设定检验

 目前关于ACD的实证研究已经十分丰富，却很少有人把注意力放在ACD及其扩展模型设定的检验上，本文采用的D检验就是通过衡量残差密度函数的参数和非参数估计值之间的紧密程度，来检验模型设定的优劣。     

Model diagnostics for marginal regression analysis of correlated binary data

We propose several diagnostic methods for checking the adequacy of marginal regression models for analyzing correlated binary data. We use a parametric marginal model based on latent variables and derive the projection (hat) matrix, Cook's distance, various residuals and Mahalanobis distance between the observed binary responses and the estimated probabilities for a cluster. Emphasized are several graphical methods including the simulated Q-Q plot, the half-normal probability plot with a simulated envelope, and the partial residual plot. The methods are illustrated with a real life example.     

Empirical characteristic function tests for GARCH innovation distribution using multipliers

Goodness-of-fit tests for the innovation distribution in GARCH models based on measuring deviations between the empirical characteristic function of the residuals and the characteristic function under the null hypothesis have been proposed in the literature. The asymptotic distributions of these test statistics depend on unknown quantities, so their null distributions are usually estimated through parametric bootstrap (PB). Although easy to implement, the PB can become very computationally expensive for large sample sizes, which is typically the case in applications of these models. This work proposes to approximate the null distribution through a weighted bootstrap. The procedure is studied both theoretically and numerically. Its asymptotic properties are similar to those of the PB, but, from a computational point of view, it is more efficient.     

Diagnostic checks for integer-valued autoregressive models using expected residuals

Integer-valued time series models make use of thinning operators for coherency in the nature of count data. However, the thinning operators make residuals unobservable and are the main difficulty in developing diagnostic tools for autocorrelated count data. In this regard, we introduce a new residual, which takes the form of predictive distribution functions, to assess probabilistic forecasts, and this new residual is supplemented by a modified usual residuals. Under integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models, the properties of these two residuals are investigated and used to evaluate the predictive performance and model adequacy of the INAR models. We compare our residuals with the existing residuals through simulation studies and apply our method to select an appropriate INAR model for an over-dispersed real data.     

Deviance residuals in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations

In this article, we compare three residuals based on the deviance component in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. For all cases studied, the empirical distributions of the proposed residuals are in general symmetric around zero, but only a martingale-type residual presented negligible kurtosis for the majority of the cases studied. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for the martingale-type residual in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored data. A lifetime data set is analysed under log-gamma regression models and a model checking based on the martingale-type residual is performed.     

Generalized symmetrical partial linear model

In this work, we propose a new model called generalized symmetrical partial linear model, based on the theory of generalized linear models and symmetrical distributions. In our model the response variable follows a symmetrical distribution such a normal, Student-t, power exponential, among others. Following the context of generalized linear models we consider replacing the traditional linear predictors by the more general predictors in whose case one covariate is related with the response variable in a non-parametric fashion, that we do not specified the parametric function. As an example, we could imagine a regression model in which the intercept term is believed to vary in time or geographical location. The backfitting algorithm is used for estimating the parameters of the proposed model. We perform a simulation study for assessing the behavior of the penalized maximum likelihood estimators. We use the quantile residuals for checking the assumption of the model. Finally, we analyzed real data set related with pH rivers in Ireland.     

BOOTSTRAP TESTS FOR THE ERROR DISTRIBUTION IN LINEAR AND NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION MODELS

In this paper we investigate several tests for the hypothesis of a parametric form of the error distribution in the common linear and non‐parametric regression model, which are based on empirical processes of residuals. It is well known that tests in this context are not asymptotically distribution‐free and the parametric bootstrap is applied to deal with this problem. The performance of the resulting bootstrap test is investigated from an asymptotic point of view and by means of a simulation study. The results demonstrate that even for moderate sample sizes the parametric bootstrap provides a reliable and easy accessible solution to the problem of goodness‐of‐fit testing of assumptions regarding the error distribution in linear and non‐parametric regression models.     

Residuals and leverages in the linear mixed measurement error models

Residuals are frequently used to evaluate the validity of the assumptions of statistical models and may also be employed as tools for model selection. In this paper, we consider residuals and their limiting properties in the linear mixed measurement error models. Also, we develop types of residuals for these models and then review some of the residual analysis techniques. Further, by using the definition of generalized leverage, we derive generalized leverage matrices for identification of high-leverage points for these models. Finally, we analyse a real data set.     

The log-odd log-logistic Weibull regression model: modelling,estimation, influence diagnostics and residual analysis

In applications of survival analysis, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such cases, the log-normal and log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the odd log-logistic Weibull distribution is proposed for modelling data with a decreasing, increasing, unimodal and bathtub failure rate function as an alternative to the log-Weibull regression model. For censored data, we consider a classic method to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals is determined and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the new regression model applied to censored data. We analyse a real data set using the log-odd log-logistic Weibull regression model.     

Distribution-free test in Tobit mean regression model

This paper discusses the problem of fitting a parametric model in Tobit mean regression models. The proposed test is based on the supremum of the Khamaladze-type transformation of a partial sum process of calibrated residuals. The asymptotic null distribution of this transformed process is shown to be the same as that of a time-transformed standard Brownian motion. Consistency of this sequence of tests against some fixed alternatives and asymptotic power under some local nonparametric alternatives are also discussed. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed test. The power comparison with some existing tests shows some superiority of the proposed test at the chosen alternatives.     

A comparison of bootstrap approaches for estimating uncertainty of parameters in linear mixed‐effects models

A version of the nonparametric bootstrap, which resamples the entire subjects from original data, called the case bootstrap, has been increasingly used for estimating uncertainty of parameters in mixed‐effects models. It is usually applied to obtain more robust estimates of the parameters and more realistic confidence intervals (CIs). Alternative bootstrap methods, such as residual bootstrap and parametric bootstrap that resample both random effects and residuals, have been proposed to better take into account the hierarchical structure of multi‐level and longitudinal data. However, few studies have been performed to compare these different approaches. In this study, we used simulation to evaluate bootstrap methods proposed for linear mixed‐effect models. We also compared the results obtained by maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML). Our simulation studies evidenced the good performance of the case bootstrap as well as the bootstraps of both random effects and residuals. On the other hand, the bootstrap methods that resample only the residuals and the bootstraps combining case and residuals performed poorly. REML and ML provided similar bootstrap estimates of uncertainty, but there was slightly more bias and poorer coverage rate for variance parameters with ML in the sparse design. We applied the proposed methods to a real dataset from a study investigating the natural evolution of Parkinson's disease and were able to confirm that the methods provide plausible estimates of uncertainty. Given that most real‐life datasets tend to exhibit heterogeneity in sampling schedules, the residual bootstraps would be expected to perform better than the case bootstrap. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post‐model‐selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non‐parametric functions approximated by polynomial splines, we show that, under certain conditions, the asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model averaging WCQR‐estimator of a focused parameter is a non‐linear mixture of normal distributions. This asymptotic distribution is used to construct confidence intervals that achieve the nominal coverage probability. With properly chosen weights, the focused information criterion based WCQR estimators are not only robust to outliers and non‐normal residuals but also can achieve efficiency close to the maximum likelihood estimator, without assuming the true error distribution. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure.     

空间回归模型选择的反思

空间计量经济学存在两种最基本的模型:空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,这里旨在重新思考和探讨这两种空间回归模型的选择,结论为:Moran’s I指数可以用来判断回归模型后的残差是否存在空间依赖性;在实证分析中,采用拉格朗日乘子检验判断两种模型优劣是最常见的做法。然而,该检验仅仅是基于统计推断而忽略了理论基础,因此,可能导致选择错误的模型;在实证分析中,空间误差模型经常被选择性遗忘,而该模型的适用性较空间滞后模型更为广泛;实证分析大多缺乏空间回归模型设定的探讨,Anselin提出三个统计量,并且,如果模型设定正确,应该遵从Wald统计量>Log likelihood统计量>LM统计量的排列顺序。     

Testing Goodness of Fit of Parametric AFT and PH Models with Residuals

In this article, we consider the problems of testing the goodness of fit of the parametric accelerated failure time model and the Cox proportional hazards model. We consider omnibus test statistics based on residuals. The statistical distributions of Kolmogorov, Cramer-von Mises–Smirnov, and Anderson–Darling statistics are all investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Type-I, Type-II, and independent random censoring situations are all considered in this study. A Monte Carlo power study has also been carried out for these tests to distinguish between various baseline models, which reveals that the Anderson–Darling test performs better than the others.     

Separated hypotheses testing for autoregressive models with non-negative residuals

Normal residual is one of the usual assumptions in autoregressive model but sometimes in practice we are faced with non-negative residuals. In this paper, we have derived modified maximum likelihood estimators of parameters of the residuals and autoregressive coefficient. Also asymptotic distribution of modified maximum likelihood estimators in both stationary and non-stationary models are computed. So that, we can derive asymptotic distribution of unit root, Vuong's and Cox's tests statistics in stationary situation. Using simulation, it shows that Akaike information criterion and Vuong's test work to select the optimal autoregressive model with non-negative residuals. Sometimes Vuong's test select two competing models as equivalent models. These models may be suitable or unsuitable equivalent models. So we consider Cox's test to make inference after model selection. Kolmogorov–Smirnov test confirms our results. Also we have computed tracking interval for competing models to choosing between two close competing models when Vuong's test and Cox's test cannot detect the differences.     

Statistical inference for restricted partially linear varying coefficient errors-in-variables models

As a useful extension of partially linear models and varying coefficient models, the partially linear varying coefficient model is useful in statistical modelling. This paper considers statistical inference for the semiparametric model when the covariates in the linear part are measured with additive error and some additional linear restrictions on the parametric component are available. We propose a restricted modified profile least-squares estimator for the parametric component, and prove the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. To test hypotheses on the parametric component, we propose a test statistic based on the difference between the corrected residual sums of squares under the null and alterative hypotheses, and show that its limiting distribution is a weighted sum of independent chi-square distributions. We also develop an adjusted test statistic, which has an asymptotically standard chi-squared distribution. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate our approaches.     

Properties of test statistics applied to residuals in failure time models

Asymptotic properties of a class of test statistics when applied to hazard-based residuals arising in survival and reliability models are presented. These test statistics are useful in goodness-of-fit tests and model validation. The properties are obtained by examining the asymptotic properties of generalized residual processes, which are (possibly random) time transformations of the processes associated with the incomplete failure times. Since the time transformations depend on unknown model parameters, the residual processes are obtained by replacing the unknown parameters by their estimators. The results shed light on the effects of estimating parameters to obtain the residual processes. Implications concerning possible pitfalls of some existing model validation procedures utilizing hazard-based residuals and ways to correct these problems are discussed.     

Fitting and testing the Marshall–Olkin extended Weibull model with randomly censored data

The random censorship model (RCM) is commonly used in biomedical science for modeling life distributions. The popular non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimator and some semiparametric models such as Cox proportional hazard models are extensively discussed in the literature. In this paper, we propose to fit the RCM with the assumption that the actual life distribution and the censoring distribution have a proportional odds relationship. The parametric model is defined using Marshall–Olkin's extended Weibull distribution. We utilize the maximum-likelihood procedure to estimate model parameters, the survival distribution, the mean residual life function, and the hazard rate as well. The proportional odds assumption is also justified by the newly proposed bootstrap Komogorov–Smirnov type goodness-of-fit test. A simulation study on the MLE of model parameters and the median survival time is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the model. Finally, we implement the proposed model on two real-life data sets.     

Checking the Short‐Term and Long‐Term Hazard Ratio Model for Survival Data

Abstract. The short‐term and long‐term hazard ratio model includes the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as submodels, and allows a wider range of hazard ratio patterns compared with some of the more traditional models. We propose two omnibus tests for checking this model, based, respectively, on the martingale residuals and the contrast between the non‐parametric and model‐based estimators of the survival function. These tests are shown to be consistent against any departure from the model. The empirical behaviours of the tests are studied in simulations, and the tests are illustrated with some real data examples.