Foldover Conference Designs for Screening Experiments

A conference matrix is a square matrix C with zeros on the diagonal and ±1s off the diagonal, such that C ^T C = CC ^T  = (n ? 1)I, where I is the identity matrix. Conference matrices are an important class of combinatorial designs due to their many applications in several fields of science, including statistical-experimental designs, telecommunications, elliptic geometry, and more. In this article, conference matrices and their full foldover design are combined together to obtain an alternative method for screening active factors in complicated problems. This method provides a model-independent estimate of the set of active factors and also gives a linearity test for the underlying model.     

Regression analysis using order statistics

In this article, we study the joint distribution of X and two linear combinations of order statistics, a ^T Y ₍₂₎ and b ^T Y ₍₂₎, where a = (a ₁, a ₂) ^T and b = (b ₁, b ₂) ^T are arbitrary vectors in R ² and Y ₍₂₎ = (Y ₍₁₎, Y ₍₂₎) ^T is a vector of ordered statistics obtained from (Y ₁, Y ₂) ^T when (X, Y ₁, Y ₂) ^T follows a trivariate normal distribution with a positive definite covariance matrix. We show that this distribution belongs to the skew-normal family and hence our work is a generalization of Olkin and Viana (J Am Stat Assoc 90:1373–1379, 1995) and Loperfido (Test 17:370–380, 2008).     

A Bayesian analysis for the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic

A Bayesian analysis is provided for the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic (T⁺). The Bayesian analysis is based on a sign-bias parameter φ on the (0, 1) interval. For the case of a uniform prior probability distribution for φ and for small sample sizes (i.e., 6 ? n ? 25), values for the statistic T⁺ are computed that enable probabilistic statements about φ. For larger sample sizes, approximations are provided for the asymptotic likelihood function P(T⁺|φ) as well as for the posterior distribution P(φ|T⁺). Power analyses are examined both for properly specified Gaussian sampling and for misspecified non Gaussian models. The new Bayesian metric has high power efficiency in the range of 0.9–1 relative to a standard t test when there is Gaussian sampling. But if the sampling is from an unknown and misspecified distribution, then the new statistic still has high power; in some cases, the power can be higher than the t test (especially for probability mixtures and heavy-tailed distributions). The new Bayesian analysis is thus a useful and robust method for applications where the usual parametric assumptions are questionable. These properties further enable a way to do a generic Bayesian analysis for many non Gaussian distributions that currently lack a formal Bayesian model.     

Designs for approximately linear regression: Maximizing the minimum coverage probability of confidence ellipsoids

The classical D-optimality principle in regression design may be motivated by a desire to maximize the coverage probability of a fixed-volume confidence ellipsoid on the regression parameters. When the fitted model is exactly correct, this amounts to minimizing the determinant of the covariance matrix of the estimators. We consider an analogue of this problem, under the approximately linear model E[y|x] = θ^Tz(x) + f(x). The nonlinear disturbance f(x) is essentially unknown, and the experimenter fits only to the linear part of the response. The resulting bias affects the coverage probability of the confidence ellipsoid on θ. We study the construction of designs which maximize the minimum coverage probability as f varies over a certain class. Explicit designs are given in the case that the fitted response surface is a plane.     

HITTING LINES and CIRCLES WITH DIFFUSION PROCESSES

For (x(t),y(t)), a diffusion process starting from (x(0),y(0)) = (x,y), the problem of computing the moment generating function of the first passage time T(x, y) to a given subset D of IR²is considered. A particular case of the method of similarity solutions is used. The problems that can be solved explicitly are those for which D is either a straight line or a circle.     

Influence functions for certain parameters in multivariate analysis

The influence function introduced by Hampe1 (1968, 1973, 1974) is a tool that can be used for outlier detection. Campbell (1978) has obtained influence function for Mahalanobis’s distance between two populations which can be used for detecting outliers in discrim-inant analysis. In this paper influence functions for a variety of parametric functions in multivariate analysis are obtained. Influence functions for the generalized variance, the matrix of regression coefficients, the noncentrality matrix Σ^-1 δ in multivariate analysis of variance and its eigen values, the matrix L, which is a generalization of 1-R² , canonical correlations, principal components and parameters that correspond to Pillai’s statistic (1955), Hotelling’s (1951) generalized To² and Wilk’s Λ (1932), which can be used for outlier detection in multivariate analysis, are obtained. Delvin, Ginanadesikan and Kettenring (1975) have obtained influence function for the population correlation co-efficient in the bivariate case. It is shown in this paper that influence functions for parameters corresponding to r², R², and Mahalanobis D² can be obtained as particular cases.     

Improved estimation of the population parameters when some additional information is available

Estimation of population parameters is considered by several statisticians when additional information such as coefficient of variation, kurtosis or skewness is known. Recently Wencheko and Wijekoon (Stat Papers 46:101–115, 2005) have derived minimum mean square error estimators for the population mean in one parameter exponential families when coefficient of variation is known. In this paper the results presented by Gleser and Healy (J Am Stat Assoc 71:977–981, 1976) and Arnholt and Hebert (, 2001) were generalized by considering T (X) as a minimal sufficient estimator of the parametric function g(θ) when the ratio t²=[ g(q) ]^-2Var[ T(X ) ]{\tau^{2}=[ {g(\theta )} ]^{-2}{\rm Var}[ {T(\boldsymbol{X} )} ]} is independent of θ. Using these results the minimum mean square error estimator in a certain class for both population mean and variance can be obtained. When T (X) is complete and minimal sufficient, the ratio τ² is called “WIJLA” ratio, and a uniformly minimum mean square error estimator can be derived for the population mean and variance. Finally by applying these results, the improved estimators for the population mean and variance of some distributions are obtained.     

Likelihood-Based Inference for Weak Exogeneity in I(2) Cointegrated VAR Models

This article develops limit theory for likelihood analysis of weak exogeneity in I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models incorporating deterministic terms. Conditions for weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models are reviewed, and the asymptotic properties of conditional maximum likelihood estimators and a likelihood-based weak exogeneity test are then investigated. It is demonstrated that weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models allows us to conduct asymptotic conditional inference based on mixed Gaussian distributions. It is then proved that a log-likelihood ratio test statistic for weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models is asymptotically χ² distributed. The article also presents an empirical illustration of the proposed test for weak exogeneity using Japan's macroeconomic data.     

Effects of the generalized Box–Cox transformation on Type I error rate and power of Hotelling's T 2

Most multivariate statistical techniques rely on the assumption of multivariate normality. The effects of nonnormality on multivariate tests are assumed to be negligible when variance–covariance matrices and sample sizes are equal. Therefore, in practice, investigators usually do not attempt to assess multivariate normality. In this simulation study, the effects of skewed and leptokurtic multivariate data on the Type I error and power of Hotelling's T ² were examined by manipulating distribution, sample size, and variance–covariance matrix. The empirical Type I error rate and power of Hotelling's T ² were calculated before and after the application of generalized Box–Cox transformation. The findings demonstrated that even when variance–covariance matrices and sample sizes are equal, small to moderate changes in power still can be observed.     

Correcting the bias due to dependent censoring of the survival estimator by conditioning

We consider the conditional estimation of the survival function of the time T₂ to a second event as a function of the time T₁ to a first event when there is a censoring mechanism acting on their sum T₁+T₂. The problem has been motivated by a treatment interruption study aimed at improving the quality of life of HIV-infected patients. We base the analysis on the survival function of T₂ given that T₁∈I, where I represents a period of scientific interest (1 trimester, 1 year, 2 years, etc.) and propose a non-parametric estimator for the survival function of T₂ given that T₁∈I, which takes into account both the selection bias and the heterogeneity due to the dependent censoring. The proposed estimator for the survival function uses the risk group of T₂ conditioned on the categories of T₁ and corrects for the dependent censoring using weights defined by the observed values of T₁. The estimator, properly normalized, converges weakly to a zero-mean Gaussian process. We estimate the variance of the limiting process via a bootstrap methodology. Properties of the proposed estimator are illustrated by an extensive simulation study. The motivating data set is analysed by means of this new methodology.     

THE CALCULATION OF CONFIDENCE REGIONS FOR EIGENVECTORS

An explicit algorithm is given for constructing a confidence region on the appropriate unit sphere for an eigenvector, given a large sample. It is assumed the eigenvector corresponds to the largest eigenvalue of Exx^T, a matrix with distinct eigenvalues, and that the estimation uses n^-1S?x_ix_ix^T. While the theory is generally applicable, the writer has in mind the special case where ∥x∥= 1 i.e. directional data.     

Influence functions related to eigenvalue problems which appear in multivariate analysis

Tanaka(1988) derived two influence functions related to an ordinary eigenvalue problem (A–λ_s I)v_s = 0 of a real symmetric matrix A and used them for sensitivity analysis in principal component analysis. One of these influence functions was used to develop sensitivity analysis in factor analysis (see e.g. Tanaka and Odaka, 1988a). The present paper derives some additional influence functions related to an ordinary eigenvalue problem and also several influence functions related to a generalized eigenvalue problem (A–θ_s A)u_s = 0, where A and B are real symmetric and real symmetric positive definite matrices, respectively. These influence functions are applicable not only to the case where the eigenvalues of interest are all simple but also to the case where there are some multiple eigenvalues among those of interest.     

Monitoring Change in Persistence Against the Null of Difference-Stationarity in Infinite Variance Observations

In this article, we propose a moving kernel-weighted variance ratio statistic to monitor persistence change in infinite variance observations. We focus on I(1) to I(0) persistence change for sequences in the domain of attraction of a stable law and local-to-finite variance sequences. The null distribution of the monitoring statistic and its consistency are proved. In particular, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to determine the critical values for the derived asymptotic distribution depends on unknown tail index. The small sample performances of proposed monitoring procedure are illustrated by both simulation and application to a high frequency financial data.     

Optimal Designs for Approximating a Stochastic Process with Respect to a Minimax Criterion

We study the problem of approximating a stochastic process Y = {Y(t: t ∈ T} with known and continuous covariance function R on the basis of finitely many observations Y(t ₁,), …, Y(t _n ). Dependent on the knowledge about the mean function, we use different approximations ? and measure their performance by the corresponding maximum mean squared error sub _t∈T E(Y(t) ? ?(t))². For a compact T ? ? ^p we prove sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal designs. For the class of covariance functions on T ² = [0, 1]² which satisfy generalized Sacks/Ylvisaker regularity conditions of order zero or are of product type, we construct sequences of designs for which the proposed approximations perform asymptotically optimal.     

Optimal bandwidth matrices in functional principal component analysis of density functions

In order to explore and compare a finite number T of data sets by applying functional principal component analysis (FPCA) to the T associated probability density functions, we estimate these density functions by using the multivariate kernel method. The data set sizes being fixed, we study the behaviour of this FPCA under the assumption that all the bandwidth matrices used in the estimation of densities are proportional to a common parameter h and proportional to either the variance matrices or the identity matrix. In this context, we propose a selection criterion of the parameter h which depends only on the data and the FPCA method. Then, on simulated examples, we compare the quality of approximation of the FPCA when the bandwidth matrices are selected using either the previous criterion or two other classical bandwidth selection methods, that is, a plug-in or a cross-validation method.     

Prediction based on linear combinations of order statistics and bivariate concomitants in the case of multivariate elliptical distributions

In this paper, by considering a (3n+1) -dimensional random vector (X₀, X^T, Y^T, Z^T)^T having a multivariate elliptical distribution, we derive the exact joint distribution of (X₀, a^TX_(n), b^TY_[n], c^TZ_[n])^T, where a, b, c∈?ⁿ, X_(n)=(X₍₁₎, …, X_(n))^T, X₍₁₎<···<X_(n), is the vector of order statistics arising from X, and Y_[n]=(Y_[1], …, Y_[n])^T and Z_[n]=(Z_[1], …, Z_[n])^T denote the vectors of concomitants corresponding to X_(n) ((Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n, is the vector of bivariate concomitants corresponding to X_(r)). We then present an alternate approach for the derivation of the exact joint distribution of (X₀, X_(r), Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n. We show that these joint distributions can be expressed as mixtures of four-variate unified skew-elliptical distributions and these mixture forms facilitate the prediction of X_(r), say, based on the concomitants Y_[r] and Z_[r]. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our results by a real data.     

Bayesian Inference in Multivariate Regression With Missing Observations on the Response Variables

We discuss the case of the multivariate linear model Y = XB + E with Y an (n × p) matrix, and so on, when there are missing observations in the Y matrix in a so-called nested pattern. We propose an analysis that arises by incorporating the predictive density of the missing observations in determining the posterior distribution of B, and its mean and variance matrix. This involves us with matric-T variables. The resulting analysis is illustrated with some Canadian economic data.     

The T-type estimate of a class of partially non linear models

Abstract

This paper considers a partially non linear model E(Y|X, z, t) = f(X, β) + z^Tg(t) and gives its T-type estimate, which is a weighted quasi-likelihood estimate using sieve method and can be obtained by EM algorithm. The influence functions and asymptotic properties of T-type estimate (consistency and asymptotic normality) are discussed, and convergence rate of both parametric and non parametric components are obtained. Simulation results show the shape of influence functions and prove that the T-type estimate performs quite well. The proposed estimate is also applied to a data set and compared with the least square estimate and least absolute deviation estimate.     

The Estimation and Testing of the Cointegration Order Based on the Frequency Domain

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a method to estimate the degree of cointegration in bivariate series and suggests a test statistic for testing noncointegration based on the determinant of the spectral density matrix for the frequencies close to zero. In the study, series are assumed to be I(d), 0 < d ? 1, with parameter d supposed to be known. In this context, the order of integration of the error series is I(d ? b), b ∈ [0, d]. Besides, the determinant of the spectral density matrix for the dth difference series is a power function of b. The proposed estimator for b is obtained here performing a regression of logged determinant on a set of logged Fourier frequencies. Under the null hypothesis of noncointegration, the expressions for the bias and variance of the estimator were derived and its consistency property was also obtained. The asymptotic normality of the estimator, under Gaussian and non-Gaussian innovations, was also established. A Monte Carlo study was performed and showed that the suggested test possesses correct size and good power for moderate sample sizes, when compared with other proposals in the literature. An advantage of the method proposed here, over the standard methods, is that it allows to know the order of integration of the error series without estimating a regression equation. An application was conducted to exemplify the method in a real context.