Two-stage group-screening designs with equal prior probabilities and no errors in decisions

A discrete approach to group-screening designs in the sense of discontinuous variation in the sizes of group-factors is studied. The results obtained using the finite differences method are compared with Watson!s results obtained by assuming continuous variation. Conditions for two-stage designs to be more economic than the corresponding single-stage designs are also given.     

Optimum two stage group-screening with unequal group sizes and with errors in decisions

In this paper, the formula for the expected number of incorrect decisions has been obtained. It is assumed that the factors are defective with different a-priori probabilities. Group-screening designs have been described which minimise (i) the expected number of runs for a fixed value of the expected number of incorrect decisions, (ii) the expected total cost.     

Asymptotic Properties of Error Density Estimator in Regression Model Under α-Mixing Assumptions

This paper aims at working out economic groupscreening plans to sort out defective items from a population which consists of tems with unequal a-priori probabilities of being defective. It is shown that in the case of group-screening from a population with unequal a-priori probabilities of factors being defective, the number of obseruations needed on the average is considerably smaller than that required in the case of a population with factors having the same a-priori probability of being defective. Tables at the end give some group-screening plans as illustrations.     

Review of random and group-screening designs

Experiments with real systems, but especially with simulated systems, may involve hundreds of factors. However, only a few factors are really important. Detecting these Important factors requires special designs such as random and group-screening de-signs. Random designs are simple, but they yield biased esti-mators. Group-screening is based on aggregation. The assumptions of group-screening are discussed in detail, and seem not very restrictive. References to applications of both design types are given.     

Stopping for efficacy in single-arm phase II clinical trials

Phase II clinical trials investigate whether a new drug or treatment has sufficient evidence of effectiveness against the disease under study. Two-stage designs are popular for phase II since they can stop in the first stage if the drug is ineffective. Investigators often face difficulties in determining the target response rates, and adaptive designs can help to set the target response rate tested in the second stage based on the number of responses observed in the first stage. Popular adaptive designs consider two alternate response rates, and they generally minimise the expected sample size at the maximum uninterested response rate. Moreover, these designs consider only futility as the reason for early stopping and have high expected sample sizes if the provided drug is effective. Motivated by this problem, we propose an adaptive design that enables us to terminate the single-arm trial at the first stage for efficacy and conclude which alternate response rate to choose. Comparing the proposed design with a popular adaptive design from literature reveals that the expected sample size decreases notably if any of the two target response rates are correct. In contrast, the expected sample size remains almost the same under the null hypothesis.     

Robust modelling for asset management

We argue that the principal way to achieve robustness is through good elicitation. This means asking the right questions, to elicit only those judgements which can be given reliably. Bayes linear methods minimise the number of prior judgements employed in the analysis. Only first- and second-order moments are specified. We present an example in which a complex problem is modelled in terms of a relatively small number of meaningful prior judgements. Sensitivity to variations in those judgements is explored here and in Goldstein and Wooff (1992).     

Estimation of a finite population total in two-stage and stratified sampling under superpopulation models

Optimal sampling strategies which minimise the expected mean square error for a linear design as well as model-design unbiased estimators for a finite population total for two-stage and stratified sampling are obtained under different superpopu1ation models     

Do single‐arm trials have a role in drug development plans incorporating randomised trials?

Often, single‐arm trials are used in phase II to gather the first evidence of an oncological drug's efficacy, with drug activity determined through tumour response using the RECIST criterion. Provided the null hypothesis of ‘insufficient drug activity’ is rejected, the next step could be a randomised two‐arm trial. However, single‐arm trials may provide a biased treatment effect because of patient selection, and thus, this development plan may not be an efficient use of resources. Therefore, we compare the performance of development plans consisting of single‐arm trials followed by randomised two‐arm trials with stand‐alone single‐stage or group sequential randomised two‐arm trials. Through this, we are able to investigate the utility of single‐arm trials and determine the most efficient drug development plans, setting our work in the context of a published single‐arm non‐small‐cell lung cancer trial. Reference priors, reflecting the opinions of ‘sceptical’ and ‘enthusiastic’ investigators, are used to quantify and guide the suitability of single‐arm trials in this setting. We observe that the explored development plans incorporating single‐arm trials are often non‐optimal. Moreover, even the most pessimistic reference priors have a considerable probability in favour of alternative plans. Analysis suggests expected sample size savings of up to 25% could have been made, and the issues associated with single‐arm trials avoided, for the non‐small‐cell lung cancer treatment through direct progression to a group sequential randomised two‐arm trial. Careful consideration should thus be given to the use of single‐arm trials in oncological drug development when a randomised trial will follow. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.     

Exact Designs Minimising the Integrated Variance in Quadratic Regression

Exact designs are given which minimise the average variance of a quadratic regression polynomial fitted by the method of least squares.     

Fractional replication in simulation studies

It is shown how to use fractional replication in simulation studies. Examples are given. Considerable savings in number of runs required can be achieved through the use of fractional replication ideas.     

Three-stage group screening with unequal group sizes and with errors in observations

In this paper three-stage group screening in which group-factors contain differing number of factors is discussed. A procedure for grouping the factors in the absence of concrete prior information is described. Formulas for the expected number of runs and the expected number of incorrect decisions have also been obtained. These formulas are used to formulate criteria for optimal designs.     

Duration of Accrual and Follow-up for Two-Stage Clinical Trials

Group sequential trialswith time to event end points can be complicated to design. Notonly are there unlimited choices for the number of events requiredat each stage, but for each of these choices, there are unlimitedcombinations of accrual and follow-up at each stage that providethe required events. Methods are presented for determining optimalcombinations of accrual and follow-up for two-stage clinicaltrials with time to event end points. Optimization is based onminimizing the expected total study length as a function of theexpected accrual duration or sample size while providing an appropriateoverall size and power. Optimal values of expected accrual durationand minimum expected total study length are given assuming anexponential proportional hazards model comparing two treatmentgroups. The expected total study length can be substantiallydecreased by including a follow-up period during which accrualis suspended. Conditions that warrant an interim follow-up periodare considered, and the gain in efficiency achieved by includingan interim follow-up period is quantified. The gain in efficiencyshould be weighed against the practical difficulties in implementingsuch designs. An example is given to illustrate the use of thesetechniques in designing a clinical trial to compare two chemotherapyregimens for lung cancer. Practical considerations of includingan interim follow-up period are discussed.     

A discrete model for the segmentation of chains and strings

A statistical model is presented that can be used to represent a discrete breakage process. It considers a fixed length chain or string made up of n +1 pieces joined together. The chain is stressed at each connection or link andrupture occurs at some of the links. Models are developed to answer the question, “what is the expected proportion of chain segments of a given size?” The model is modified to handle those experiments where only thetotal weight of a given size segment is known. Expressions are obtained for the expected value and variance of the number of segments of a given size. The model is used to predict the expected number of segments which results when a fixed length DNA molecule chain is subjected to carcinogenic agents and is applied to industrial examples.     

An optimization model for economic design of sampling plans based on conforming run length considering outgoing quality

In this article, a new economical acceptance sampling model is proposed based on Taguchi loss function. The objective function of the model consists of inspection cost, scrap cost, and Taguchi loss function including producer loss and consumer loss. The expected total cost includes the loss for an inspected item plus the loss for an accepted item which has not been inspected. Decision-making is based on conforming run length. It is assumed that the quality characteristics follow normal distribution. A numerical example is solved for illustrating application of this model. Sensitivity analysis is proposed for illustrating the effect of some important parameters on the objective function. Finally, we compared the results of the proposed method with classical Dodge–Romig sampling plans tables based on average outgoing quality limit. The results confirmed the superiority of proposed model.     

Matching Performance of Continuous Sampling Plans with Single Sampling Plans

Single sampling plans are widely used for appraising incoming product quality. However, for situations where a continuous product flow exists, lot-by-lot demarcations may not exist, and it may be necessary to use alternate procedures, such as CSP-1, for continuous processes. In this case, one would like to be able to understand how average performance of the continuous sampling procedures compares to the more commonly used single sampling plans.

In this study, a model is devised which can be used to relate plan performance between single sample lot acceptance procedures and Dodge's(1943) CSP-1 continuous sampling plan. It is shown that it is generally not possible to match up performance based upon operating characteristic curve expressions for the two plans. Instead, the plans are matched by equating expressions for π(p), the long run proportion of product which is accepted, under both procedures. This is shown to be equivalent to matching up properties on an average outgoing quality basis. The methodology may be extended for any derivative plan under MIL-STD-1235B (1982), the military standard for continuous acceptance sampling.     

Optimal allocations in sequential tests involving two populations with covariates

We consider the problem of testing which of two normally distributed treatments has the largest mean, when the tested populations incorporate a covariate. From the class of procedures using the invariant sequential probability ratio test we derive an optimal allocation that minimizes, in a continuous time setting, the expected sampling costs. Simulations show that this procedure reduces the number of observations from the costlier treatment and categories while maintaining an overall sample size closer to the “pairwise” procedure. A randomized trial example is given.     

A two-stage minimax procedure with screening for selecting the largest normal mean (ii): an improved pcs lower bound and associated tables

This paper is a follow-up to an earlier article by the authors in which they proposed a two-stage procedure with screening to select the normal population with the largest population mean when the populations have a common known variance. The two-stage procedure has the highly desirable property that the expected total number of observations required by the procedure is always less than the total number of observations required by the corresponding single-stage procedure of Bechhofer (1954), regardless of the configuration of the population means. The present paper contains new results which make possible the more efficient implementation of the two-stage procedure. Tables for this purpose are given, and the improvements achieved (which are substantial) are assessed.     

Reliability assessments by repair shops via maintenance data∗$Fr1:$Sup;∗$esup;$fr:$sup;∗$esup;This is the revised version (containing further applicative examples) of the paper published in the proceedings of the Reliability ‘87 Conference, 14–16 April,Birmimgham, U.K., as anticipated during the oral presentation given then.$ef.

Sometimes, the normal maintenance data recorded by repair shops, working around systems as small as cars or as large as factories, can be used to perform reliability evaluations both in terms of distribution of times to first failure and in terms of expected number of failure in a given time interval. Some examples fiom the field show the use of two estimation procedures proposed for parts and systems respectively, in the context of Non-stationary Stochastic Process. Every attempt has been made to make the whole work practice-oriented, as well as in relation to dimensioning and managing the repair shops themselves.     

Calculation of Scores for a Wilcoxon Generalization Applicable to Data Subject to Arbitrary Right Censorship

For data subject to right censoring it is suggested that the Wilcoxon ranking procedure can be generalized by scoring observations according to the expected values of order statistics from the uniform distribution subject to the same right censoring. This parallels the logrank scoring procedure in which scores correspond to the expected values of order statistics from the exponential distribution that have been subject to right censoring. A caveat is given that, in situations where the mechanism of censoring has been affected by treatment, the usual permutational analysis of ranking scores would be inappropriate. But a jackknife approach could be remedial.     

Two-dimensional balanced sampling plans excluding adjacent units under sharing a border and island adjacency schemes

In Balanced Sampling Plans Excluding Adjacent Units (BSA plans) first order inclusion probabilities are equal and second order inclusion probabilities are zero for pairs of units at a distance less than or equal to m and are constant for pairs of units which are at a distance greater than m. These plans are useful when the adjacent units in the population provide similar information. In this paper, an algorithm based on linear programming approach has been developed for construction of two-dimensional BSA plans under sharing a border and island adjacency schemes for m ≤ 2. Some results on existence of such BSA plans have also been obtained for each adjacency scheme separately.