Semiparametric Likelihood Based Method for Goodness of Fit Tests and Estimation in Upgraded Mixture Models

We use Owen's (1988, 1990) empirical likelihood method in upgraded mixture models. Two groups of independent observations are available. One is z ₁, ..., z _n which is observed directly from a distribution F ( z ). The other one is x ₁, ..., x _m which is observed indirectly from F ( z ), where the x _i s have density ∫ p ( x | z ) dF ( z ) and p ( x | z ) is a conditional density function. We are interested in testing H ₀: p ( x | z ) = p ( x | z ; θ ), for some specified smooth density function. A semiparametric likelihood ratio based statistic is proposed and it is shown that it converges to a chi-squared distribution. This is a simple method for doing goodness of fit tests, especially when x is a discrete variable with finitely many values. In addition, we discuss estimation of θ and F ( z ) when H ₀ is true. The connection between upgraded mixture models and general estimating equations is pointed out.     

Conditional inference in finite population sampling under a calibration model

Several estimators, including the classical and the regression estimators of finite population mean, are compared, both theoretically and empirically, under a calibration model, where the dependent variable(y), and not the independent variable(x), can be observed for all units of the finite population. It is shown asymptotically that when conditioned on x, the bias of the classical estimator may be much smaller than that of the regression estimators; whereas when conditioned on y, the regression estimator may have much smaller conditional bias than the classical estimator. Since all the y's(not x's) can be observed, it seems appropriate to make comparison under the conditional distribution of each estimator with y fixed. In this case, the regression estimator has smaller variance, smaller conditional bias, and the conditional coverage probability closer to its nominal level     

Rejoinder to 'Ahmed, M.S. (1998). A note on regression-type estimators using multiple auxiliary information.'

In the estimators t ₃ , t ₄ , t ₅ of Mukerjee, Rao & Vijayan (1987), b _{y x} and b _{y z} are partial regression coefficients of y on x and z , respectively, based on the smaller sample. With the above interpretation of b _{y x} and b _{y z} in t ₃ , t ₄ , t ₅ , all the calculations in Mukerjee at al. (1987) are correct. In this connection, we also wish to make it explicit that b _{x z} in t ₅ is an ordinary and not a partial regression coefficient. The 'corrected' MSEs of t ₃ , t ₄ , t ₅ , as given in Ahmed (1998 Section 3) are computed assuming that our b _{y x} and b _{y z} are ordinary and not partial regression coefficients. Indeed, we had no intention of giving estimators using the corresponding ordinary regression coefficients which would lead to estimators inferior to those given by Kiregyera (1984). We accept responsibility for any notational confusion created by us and express regret to readers who have been confused by our notation. Finally, in consideration of the above, it may be noted that Tripathi & Ahmed's (1995) estimator t ₀ , quoted also in Ahmed (1998), is no better than t ₅ of Mukerjee at al. (1987).     

Regression Properties for Asymmetric Generalized Scale Mixtures of Multivariate Gaussian Variables

Analytical properties of regression and the variance–covariance matrix of asymmetric generalized scale mixture of multivariate Gaussian variables are presented. The analysis includes an in-depth analytical investigation of the first two conditional moments of the mixing variable. Exact computable expressions for the prediction and the conditional variance are presented for the generalized hyperbolic distribution using the inversion theorem for Fourier transforms. An application to financial log returns is demonstrated via the classical Euler approximation. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing the regression of intraday log returns for CISCO against the corresponding data from S&P 500.     

Asymptotic properties for multipower variation of semimartingales and Gaussian integral processes with jumps

This paper presents limit theorems of realized multipower variation for semimartingales and Gaussian integral processes with jumps observed in high frequency. In particular, we obtain a central limit theorem of realized multipower variation for semimartingale where some of the powers equal one and the others are less one. Convergence in probability and central limit theorems of realized threshold bipower variation for Gaussian integral processes with jumps are also obtained. These results provide new statistical tools to analyze and test the long memory effect in high frequency situation.     

Nonparametric recursive estimation in stationary markov processes

This paper deals with a class of recursive kernel estimators of the transition probability density function t(y|x) of a stationary Markov process. A sufficient condition for such estimators to be weakly and strongly 2 consistent for almost all (x,y)∈R² is given. Further an L, convergence result is obtained. No continuity conditions are imposed on t(y|x).     

Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.     

Large Deviation Results for Statistics of Short- and Long-memory Gaussian Processes

This paper discusses the large deviation principle of several important statistics for short- and long-memory Gaussian processes. First, large deviation theorems for the log-likelihood ratio and quadratic forms for a short-memory Gaussian process with mean function are proved. Their asymptotics are described by the large deviation rate functions. Since they are complicated, they are numerically evaluated and illustrated using the Maple V system (Char et al ., 1991a,b). Second, the large deviation theorem of the log-likelihood ratio statistic for a long-memory Gaussian process with constant mean is proved. The asymptotics of the long-memory case differ greatly from those of the short-memory case. The maximum likelihood estimator of a spectral parameter for a short-memory Gaussian stationary process is asymptotically efficient in the sense of Bahadur.     

Conditional simulation from highly structured Gaussian systems, with application to blocking-MCMC for the Bayesian analysis of very large linear models

This paper examines strategies for simulating exactly from large Gaussian linear models conditional on some Gaussian observations. Local computation strategies based on the conditional independence structure of the model are developed in order to reduce costs associated with storage and computation. Application of these algorithms to simulation from nested hierarchical linear models is considered, and the construction of efficient MCMC schemes for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional linear models is outlined.     

An error-bounded polynomial approximation for bivariate normal probabilities

Although the bivariate normal distribution is frequently employed in the development of screening models, the formulae for computing bivariate normal probabilities are quite complicated. A simple and accurate error-bounded, noniterative approximation for bivariate normal probabilities based on a simple univariate normal quadratic or cubic approximation is developed for use in screening applications. The approximation, which is most accurate for large absolute correlation coefficients, is especially suitable for screening applications (e.g., in quality control), where large absolute correlations between performance and screening variables are desired. A special approximation for conditional bivariate normal probabilities is also provided which in quality control screening applications improves the accuracy of estimating the average outgoing product quality. Some anomalies in computing conditional bivariate normal probabilities using BNRDF and NORDF in IMSL are also discussed.     

Exact Distributional Results for Random Resistance Trees

With a view to the study of, for instance, arterial trees, this paper presents some exact distributional results on finite trees with (reciprocal) inverse Gaussian and gamma resistances. In particular, it is shown that under the specified model the conditional distribution of the minimal sufficient statistic given the total resistance of the tree is a convolution of gamma distributions and two-dimensional reciprocal inverse Gaussian distributions.     

Joint distribution of simultaneous exposures to several carcinogens in a case–control study: sample size determination

Consider a population of individuals who are free of a disease under study, and who are exposed simultaneously at random exposure levels, say X,Y,Z,… to several risk factors which are suspected to cause the disease in the populationm. At any specified levels X=x, Y=y, Z=z, …, the incidence rate of the disease in the population ot risk is given by the exposure–response relationship r(x,y,z,…) = P(disease|x,y,z,…). The present paper examines the relationship between the joint distribution of the exposure variables X,Y,Z, … in the population at risk and the joint distribution of the exposure variables U,V,W,… among cases under the linear and the exponential risk models. It is proven that under the exponential risk model, these two joint distributions belong to the same family of multivariate probability distributions, possibly with different parameters values. For example, if the exposure variables in the population at risk have jointly a multivariate normal distribution, so do the exposure variables among cases; if the former variables have jointly a multinomial distribution, so do the latter. More generally, it is demonstrated that if the joint distribution of the exposure variables in the population at risk belongs to the exponential family of multivariate probability distributions, so does the joint distribution of exposure variables among cases. If the epidemiologist can specify the differnce among the mean exposure levels in the case and control groups which are considered to be clinically or etiologically important in the study, the results of the present paper may be used to make sample size determinations for the case–control study, corresponding to specified protection levels, i.e., size α and 1–β of a statistical test. The multivariate normal, the multinomial, the negative multinomial and Fisher's multivariate logarithmic series exposure distributions are used to illustrate our results.     

Setting confidence intervals by ratio estimator

For the survey population total of a variable y when values of an auxiliary variable x are available a popular procedure is to employ the ratio estimator on drawing a simple random sample without replacement (SRSWOR) especially when the size of the sample is large. To set up a confidence interval for the total, various variance estimators are available to pair with the ratio estimator. We add a few more variance estimators studded with asymptotic design-cum-model properties. The ratio estimator is traditionally known to be appropriate when the regression of y on x is linear through the origin and the conditional variance of y given x is proportional to x. But through a numerical exercise by simulation we find the confidence intervals to fare better if the regression line deviates from the origin or if the conditional variance is disproportionate with x. Also, comparing the confidence intervals using alternative variance estimators we find our newly proposed variance estimators to yield favourably competitive results.     

On the choice of transformations of the correlation coefficient with or without an outlier

Five transformations of the correlation coefficient, namely, Fisher's z, Nair's u, Sankaran's v, Ruben's y and Samiuddin's t are compared numerically using confidence intervals. Samiuddin's t_s transformation is close to the exact nominal confidence level for a small sample size ≤ 25 from a bivariate normal density. For a sample size > 25 both Samiuddin's t_s and Fisher's z can be used. In the presence of an outlier (on a minor axis), both Fisher's z and Samiuddin's t_s are not affected as long as |p| ≤ 0.3 but are seriously affected when |p&| > 0.3.     

Collapsibility of Graphical CG-Regression Models

Abstract.  CG-regressions are multivariate regression models for mixed continuous and discrete responses that result from conditioning in the class of conditional Gaussian (CG) models. Their conditional independence structure can be read off a marked graph. The property of collapsibility, in this context, means that the multivariate CG-regression can be decomposed into lower dimensional regressions that are still CG and are consistent with the corresponding subgraphs. We derive conditions for this property that can easily be checked on the graph, and indicate computational advantages of this kind of collapsibility. Further, a simple graphical condition is given for checking whether a decomposition into univariate regressions is possible.     

Time series in m-dimensions definition,problems and prospects

We define time series in m dimensions x, as follows: the observed variable z depends on and similarly n time series in m variables where f(x,t) and x are vectors. This is the discrete case. The continuous case is similar. Distinction is made between m time series in zero dimension, at a particular point x, and one time series in m dimensions.     

Likelihood-based estimation for Gaussian MRFs

Markov random fields (MRFs) express spatial dependence through conditional distributions, although their stochastic behavior is defined by their joint distribution. These joint distributions are typically difficult to obtain in closed form, the problem being a normalizing constant that is a function of unknown parameters. The Gaussian MRF (or conditional autoregressive model) is one case where the normalizing constant is available in closed form; however, when sample sizes are moderate to large (thousands to tens of thousands), and beyond, its computation can be problematic. Because the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is often used for spatial-data modeling, we develop likelihood-inference methodology for this model in situations where the sample size is too large for its normalizing constant to be computed directly. In particular, we use simulation methodology to obtain maximum likelihood estimators of mean, variance, and spatial-depencence parameters (including their asymptotic variances and covariances) of CAR models.     

Implementation of recursive nonparametric kernel estimation and a monte carlo study on its finite sample properties

The recursive estimator for the conditional mean of a nonparametric regression model with independent observations was thoroughly explored by Ahmad and Lin (1976), and Singh and Ullah (1986). Their studies are mainly concerned with the estimator's asymptotic behaviour. However, they do not include much discussion on the strategy of computing the estimates. In this paper, we provide a convenient implementation of the recursive estimator and examine its finite sample properties through simulation studies. Our study has demonstrated that for relatively short length of recursive updating, the estimates are generally equivalent to their fixed window width counterparts However, we found that substantial recursive updating can seriously lower the estimator's efficiency even though it is a consistent estimator.     

Implementation of recursive nonparametric kernel estimation and a monte carlo study on its finite sample properties

The recursive estimator for the conditional mean of a nonparametric regression model with independent observations was thoroughly explored by Ahmad and Lin (1976), and Singh and Ullah (1986). Their studies are mainly concerned with the estimator's asymptotic behaviour. However, they do not include much discussion on the strategy of computing the estimates. In this paper, we provide a convenient implementation of the recursive estimator and examine its finite sample properties through simulation studies. Our study has demonstrated that for relatively short length of recursive updating, the estimates are generally equivalent to their fixed window width counterparts However, we found that substantial recursive updating can seriously lower the estimator's efficiency even though it is a consistent estimator.