浅议PPP项目的风险分担

文章首先阐述了影响分担的因素,在对PPP项目风险因素分析的基础上,对风险进行了识别和分类,最后对风险如何在政府部门与私人投资者之间合理分担进行了探讨.     

浅谈我国项目融资风险控制存在的问题与对策

项目融资作为大型项目筹集资金的一个特别重要的手段,在很多领域得到了成功运用,但因为项目融资跨度大、涉及面广,潜在风险也较多。目前我国银行风险控制需要进一步加强。完善相关政策法规、健全法律体系;加快金融体制改革的步伐,进一步开放金融保险市场以及加强项目融资专业人才的培养是必然选择。     

房地产项目融资风险管理

文章在阐述房地产项目融资风险构成及其分配原则的基础上,确定了房地产项目融资项目各参与方的风险承担关系,最后提出房地产项目融资风险的主要管理措施.     

BT项目融资风险及防范对策

BT模式在我国是一种新兴起的融资模式,一种工程总承包加融资的建设方式,是民间资本参与公共基础设施建设的重要方式,有效地减轻了政府负担。但是,我们也需关注融资管理中存在的一系列风险,加强融资管理。     

商业银行防范BT模式项目融资风险的思考

BT模式项目融资是一种产业资本和金融资本的全新的对接形式,这种模式主要包括发起方、回购方在内的五个方面的主体,它已成为当前世界各国引入资金推进基础设施建设的重要方式之一。从目前看,BT模式项目融资的主要对象仍是商业银行,因此应深入分析商业银行在对BT项目融资面临的主要风险并采取有效措施加以应对。     

土地储备项目融资及其风险控制研究

土地孕育万物,是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,也是人类不可再生的宝贵资源,如何有效实施土地储备,合理利用土地,调整土地资源供应,提高土地利用率,是当今人类面临的难题。为了解决这一难题,地方政府或机构进行土地储备来调控土地市场,而在进行土地储备中必然会带来土地储备融资的风险,本文主要分析有关土地融资的现状和如何有效控制土地储备融资带来的风险。     

合作创新风险分担研究

在合作创新风险管理理论研究中,理论界已做了关于合作创新风险识别、评价及其防范的研究。本文结合合作创新风险分担内涵,探讨了合作创新风险分担的主体、客体及方法。     

基于防范地方隐性债务风险的PPP项目财承研究

PPP作为一种新的基建投资和融资方式,主要指政府和社会资本在基础设施及公共服务领域建立的一种长期合作关系。PPP模式已成为我国稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生的重要举措。文章首先分析PPP项目推广存在的问题,然后结合PPP项目风险分担进行财承研究,最后总结研究成果,旨在为地方政府防范隐性债务风险提供参考。     

解雇威胁条件下经营者风险分担与激励设计

本文分析了解雇威胁条件下的经营者风险分担和激励设计问题。将企业产出线性函数中的能力因子扩展为经营者的人力资本变量;同时将解雇威胁定量化,把解雇概率植入到参与约束和激励相容约束条件中求得存在解雇威胁时的经营者分成合约分享系数的隐性方程。通过对这些方程的比较静态分析得出努力程度和人力资本变量与分享系数及解雇成本的关系,解释了隐性激励与显性激励之间的替代性,并就如何提高我国经理人市场的隐性激励效率,替代控制权激励并完善相关制度环境提出了政策建议。     

我国项目融资筹资困难的原因及对策分析

项目融资作为一种新兴的融资模式在项目建设中起到了举足轻重的作用。项目融资初期融资规模大,债务资金需求量多,但是由于项目初期抵押资产不足使得传统的银行融资模式受到了限制。文章通过对比国内外融资环境和融资制度的差异,寻找能够解决我国项目融资债务融资的途径。     

Sovereign Cat Bonds and Infrastructure Project Financing

We examine the opportunities for using catastrophe‐linked securities (or equivalent forms of nondebt contingent capital) to reduce the total costs of funding infrastructure projects in emerging economies. Our objective is to elaborate on methods to reduce the necessity for unanticipated (emergency) project funding immediately after a natural disaster. We also place the existing explanations of sovereign‐level contingent capital into a catastrophic risk management framework. In doing so, we address the following questions. (1) Why might catastrophe‐linked securities be useful to a sovereign nation, over and above their usefulness for insurers and reinsurers? (2) Why are such financial instruments ideally suited for protecting infrastructure projects in emerging economies, under third‐party sponsorship, from low‐probability, high‐consequence events that occur as a result of natural disasters? (3) How can the willingness to pay of a sovereign government in an emerging economy (or its external project sponsor), who values timely completion of infrastructure projects, for such instruments be calculated? To supplement our treatment of these questions, we use a multilayer spreadsheet‐based model (in Microsoft Excel format) to calculate the overall cost reductions possible through the judicious use of catastrophe‐based financial tools. We also report on numerical comparative statics on the value of contingent‐capital financing to avoid project disruption based on varying costs of capital, probability and consequences of disasters, the feasibility of strategies for mid‐stage project abandonment, and the timing of capital commitments to the infrastructure investment. We use these results to identify high‐priority applications of catastrophe‐linked securities so that maximal protection can be realized if the total number of catastrophe instruments is initially limited. The article concludes with potential extensions to our model and opportunities for future research.     

多元化集成模式下交通基础设施建设融资风险识别研究

从单一模式向多元化集成模式转变已成为新形势下拓宽交通基础设施建设融资渠道的必然选择,在规避单一模式局限、形成多元模式优势合力的同时,也加剧了融资不确定性和复杂性,从而对融资风险识别提出了更高的要求。综合考虑多元化集成模式下交通基础设施建设融资风险的多源性、关联性、模糊性、随机性等典型表征,设计了与典型表征相匹配的融资风险识别框架,并构建了融资风险识别两阶段模型。在该模型中,明确了融资风险因素确定流程和维度划分规则,并提出了基于随机二元语义DEMATEL的风险因素关联分析方法进行融资风险因素的研判与诊断。最后,以“PPP+ABS”模式下大成西黄河大桥收益权计划为例开展了计算实验,验证了所构建模型的有效性,并给出了融资风险应对与化解的启示与建议。研究成果能够为相关利益主体明晰融资风险因素构成、研判融资风险因素影响力、诊断融资风险因素可控性、有效应对与化解融资风险提供系统性解决方案。     

自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

关键基础设施保护是突发事件应急管理的重要对象构成,确定风险和保护排序是其保护机制的基本依据。在自然异动约束下,本文将信息扩散理论的超越概率引入风险分析模型,研究跨区域网络级联失效造成的风险,提出了确定关键基础设施网络构件的风险等级及保护排序的方法。以覆冰灾害下电网为例,研究了电网中不同支路在覆冰灾害下面临风险程度,与基本脆弱点进行对比,验证以异动风险作为保护参考的合理性。     

工程项目中社会资本对合理风险分担的影响研究

经济活动总是嵌入在一定社会关系中的,因此,任何一个工程项目风险分担的合理性都应在社会资本的视域下考察与判断.本文通过理论分析构建工程项目中社会资本对合理风险分担的影响模型,并以30个成功建设项目为样本采集到126份有效数据,运用结构方程模型的方法进行实证分析.研究结果表明:(1)风险分担可分解为缔约阶段的风险初次分担和履约过程中的风险再分担,二者之间具有显著的互补与联动关系;(2)社会资本对风险初次分担的完备程度产生显著反向影响,而对事后支持制度产生显著正向影响,且对事后支持制度的总效应相对较大;(3)社会资本对风险再分担的规模与实施效率均产生显著正向影响,且对风险再分担的实施效率总效应最大.本研究有利于引导工程项目交易双方根据社会资本制定更为合理的风险分担方案,从而促使项目成功.     

Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems

The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well‐served by expertise within the risk analysis community.     

Infrastructure in Developing and Transition Countries: Risk and Protection

This article examines two possible strategies for financing post-disaster infrastructure rehabilitation in developing and transition countries: relying on ex ante financing instruments (including insurance, catastrophe bonds, and other risk-transfer instruments) and ex post borrowing or credit. Insurance and other ex ante instruments will increase a country's stability, especially if the government authorities have a difficult time borrowing or otherwise raising funds after a major disaster; however, these instruments have an opportunity cost and can reduce the country's economic growth potential. The cost-benefit tradeoff is therefore one between economic growth through infrastructure investment and added solvency and stability for the economy. This article develops a model to illustrate this tradeoff. The model, which views the infrastructure of a developing or transition country as a nondiversifiable portfolio that generates returns, can provide a basis for evaluating alternative financing options depending on the country's objectives in terms of growth, solvency, and stability.     

商业信用融资对缓解企业风险的作用机制研究

为考察商业信用融资能否缓解企业风险,以中国A股上市制造业企业为研究样本,从规模与周期双重角度实证检验商业信用融资对企业风险的作用机制。研究表明:商业信用融资规模通过影响企业融资约束和库存持有,对企业风险产生非线性影响;立足市场交易角度,商业信用融资周期与企业风险呈现负相关关系;并且企业所有制不同会使商业信用融资规模和周期对企业风险的影响产生异质性。进一步研究发现,企业供应商集中度越高,商业信用融资规模对企业风险的影响越明显。     

基于元网络分析的重大基础设施建设项目风险评估框架与实证

重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，项目容易受到多种风险因素的综合影响，导致项目目标的偏离。现有风险评估与风险决策的方法缺乏对于风险因素、风险事件之间关联的分析。为了实现重大基础设施建设项目综合系统的风险评估，本文采用元网络分析方法，构建项目目标、风险事件和风险因素的交互模型，揭示重大基础设施风险事件发生机制的黑箱过程。风险评估过程中，通过多个网络叠加运算分析每个风险因素对于各种风险事件以及项目各目标的影响情况，改进了以往仅对风险因素单一影响程度的风险评估方法。同时，本研究选择我国某河流水电站过坝运输项目方案比选的风险评估过程验证方法的适用性。     

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system‐based for high‐consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward‐looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high‐consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents.     

纵向研发合作中的收益分配和成本分担机制

针对有一个下游垄断企业和多个上游寡头企业组成的二层市场结构,对上下游投资、下游研发的合作模式提出了一种收益分配机制和两种成本分担机制。在收益分配机制中,采用逆向归纳法得到了产量、价格和收入的解;在成本分担机制中研究了研发资金的限制、联盟规模、成本分担系数等,得到最优的研发联盟规模为只有一个游企业等结论。最后对收入比例分担方法和固定比例分担方法作了比较。