人口承载力预警系统研究

为了考察我国各个地区人口区域分布的合理性,我们改变了仅用人口密度来衡量人口分布的通常做法,通过引用适度人口指标考察了我国各省市经济人口承载容量和资源环境人口承载容量。并在此基础上建立了我国各省市人口承载力预警系统,为决策者制定人口发展战略提供了较好的参考依据。     

攀枝花市旅游人口承载容量研究

选择四川省攀枝花市典型旅游城市5县19个景点作为研究对象,通过分析空间、社会、经济作为三大主要旅游人口容量的影响因子,并改进了社会容量方法,定量分析了攀枝花市旅游人口承载容量。研究表明,空间承载容量成为制约攀枝花市景区发展并限制接待游客容量的主要因素,主要包括旅游线路不发达,景区内可达面积小。本研究有助于丰富和完善旅游人口承载容量的理论和研究体系,可为当地的生态环境保护和旅游开发建设提供科学依据。     

区域人口承载能力的多因素分析——以上海为例

上海人口增长的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的拓展潜力.区域人口承载能力研究,所面对的是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会构成的复杂巨系统,必须充分重视研究对象的系统属性.本文在构建区域人口承载能力系统框架的基础上,利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,并对上海在不同发展阶段,与不同标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析.     

Human Carrying Capacity Is Determined by Food Availability

Simple mathematical models have illustrated the relationship between human carrying capacity and population growth. In this study, food supply is proposed as the variable which best accounts for the human carrying capacity. The logistic equation, using food supply data as a variable carrying capacity, yields population estimates which are in accord with actual population numbers. That food supply data adequately fits the logistic model of human population dynamics provides evidence that, consistent with ecological notions typically applied only to nonhuman species, human population increases are a function of increased food availability.     

黑河流域人口承载力预测分析

人口承载力的研究对象是由若干个内部关系错综复杂、相互之间联系紧密的子系统所组成的“自然-经济-社会”复合巨系统,本文运用系统动力学建立复合模型仿真模拟预测黑河流域人口承载力状况．并建立黑河流域人口承载力的预警指标体系。复合模型预测数据显示,黑河流域人口承载力呈超载状态．而预警目标值Z=0．979〈1,说明该区没有实现持续发展,乃“磊、乙三个指标小于1,说明黑河流域生态环境和固定资产投资占比是影响黑河流域发展的主要因素。     

人口承载力指标系的建立及量化

有关人口承载力概念、内涵、指标体系与评价模型的研究在我国已取得了长足的发展。纵观渊源,可归结为从容量、阈值、能力等角度分别进行的研究。然而,全球经济一体化进程的不断推进,开放式条件分析框架下的人口承载力已从简单意义上的"量"演变为复杂状况下"量"与"性"才能研究的目标对象。开放式条件作为现今必需的研究背景,结合环境和资源的相对稳定性、人口规模与经济规模大小的适应性,有必要建立衡量和评价人口承载力"质量"的指标系。通过围绕社会经济状况、环境资源、区域人口状况三系统讨论了人口承载力指标系的构建与量化。     

生态承载力约束下的重庆市适度人口规模情景预测

本文考虑区域生态承载力的"可能度"和人们对生态产品和服务消费的"满意度",提出结合生态足迹法和"可能-满意度"法的适度人口规模预测方法。以重庆市为研究区,在分析该区生态足迹和生态承载力的基础上,依据土地利用总体规划和不同收入国家的生态足迹水平,构建生态承载力约束下的生态足迹发展情景,对该区适度人口规模进行预测。结果表明:重庆市在生态足迹缓慢增长情景下的"可能-满意度"最高,对应适度人口规模为3306万人,该指标主要取决于土地利用变化与人们生态产品和服务消费结构和水平的变化。因此,重庆市应严格实施土地利用总体规划,引导人们通过调整消费结构降低生态足迹,这对于实现区域可持续发展和保护三峡库区生态安全具有重要意义。     

“新东部”渔业资源人口承载力实证分析——以山东省为例

本文以“新东部”海洋渔业强省——山东为例,参照全国,对比了该区域相对渔业资源人口与经济承载力的理论值与实际值。文章倚重合理的权重选择,研究了从1978到2004年其人口与渔业资源的匹配关系。研究表明。山东渔业资源人口承载力经历了从超载、极大富余到富余三种状态,但未来发展存在不确定性。这些不确定性表明“新东部”海洋资源人口承戢力的存在、持续发展与海洋生物技术水平发展、人类生活方式选择、海洋环境生态等多种因素密切关联。海洋渔业资源来源的不确定性以及人类海洋技术掌握的局限性将决定其人口承载力的极值。目前只有抛弃粗暴利用海洋渔业资源的方式。才能长久维持人与海洋渔业资源的和谐与互惠。     

Population, nutrition and agriculture

The human carrying capacity of the world or a country is considered as a function of food consumption per capita. A method of assessing carrying capacity is described, and it is shown that the world’s population currently exceeds the global carrying capacity, that the population of the less-developed countries (LDCs) exceeds their carrying capacity, and that this situation cannot be expected to change more than marginally in the period up to 2050. It is also shown that a major increase in the global consumption of nitrogen fertilizer will be necessary if world crop production per capita is to be maintained at the current inadequate level.     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

Florida’s Changing Rainbow: Identifying Emerging Markets Through the Examination of Racial Composition and Demographic Change in Florida

Minority groups, including African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, especially in a growing middle class, comprise an emerging market in the United States (Schwartz, Global Business Network, 2000). It is estimated that through 2025, the population of ethnic minorities in the United States will grow eight times faster than the White population; by the year 2050, some estimates project that “minorities” will make up nearly 50% of the United States population. As minority groups continue to grow in population, wealth, and buying power, it becomes imperative that businesses understand the differences among different segments of the population that will be consuming their products. This paper examines projected demographic changes for the State of Florida and the implications these changes have on increasing market opportunities for businesses. Researchers from the Northeast Florida Center for Community Initiatives used Geographic information systems (GIS) computer applications to conduct spatial analysis of U.S. Census Data, as well as proprietary economic and social indicators, to develop an analysis of distribution of certain ethnicities in Florida. The purpose of this paper is to identify potential areas of significant emerging market populations within Florida in order to improve service outreach for various economic opportunities during the coming decade.

中国西北地区人口承载力及承载压力分析

本文从水资源角度出发,通过一定的计量分析,探讨了西北地区的水资源人口承载力及其动态变化,并结合人口规模预测,进一步研究了西北地区人口对资源和环境的压力状况。研究发现,西北地区人口承载力较低,但今后会进一步有所上升,与人口变动相比,人口超载现象将始终存在,但是程度将略有降低。     

人口容量与适度人口的热力学解释

对于地球的人口容量问题,人口学者曾做过许多尝试,并提出了不同版本的人口容量阙值。本文在借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,把生物圈的能量流动分为外部能量流动和内部能量流动,并在回顾人类社会发展历程中,提出人类社会的发展源自内能流能量的增加和人类对内能流能量使用效率的提高。进而又得出了人口容量和适度人口的热力学模型,及其热力学含义。     

Exploring short-term and long-term time frames in Australian population carrying capacity assessment

Time frames are vital determinants in carrying capacity assessment modelling, but their quantification can be problematic. A strictly literal definition of sustainable carrying capacity implies calculating the maximum number of people a landscape can support in perpetuity. However, the concept of perpetuity, representing infinite time, renders the concept impractical, if not impossible, to quantify; so a more pragmatic approach can be to perform assessments for a range of time frames in order to establish potential trends. One Australian-orientated model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, was developed to begin exploring temporal flexibility in resource-based carrying capacity modelling. It offers users the ability to choose projected time frames of between one and 150 years for a variety of landscape scales and consumption patterns. Generally, the longer time frames resulted in reduced carrying capacities. One reason for this result is that a completely self-sufficient population would need to match its consumption and hence its size to the anticipated least productive year within any given time frame; and as projected time periods increase, the likelihood of encountering more extreme climatic conditions with smaller yields increases.     

基于生态足迹的生态盈亏平衡分析——以辽宁省长海县为例

生态足迹方法是一种度量可持续发展程度的指标,通过估算维持人类的自然资源消费和同化人类产生的废弃物所需要的生物生产性面积即生态足迹的大小,并与给定区域的生态承载力进行生态盈亏平衡分析,来衡量研究区域的可持续发展状况。生态足迹方法从人类需求占用角度为评估区域可持续发展状态提供了较好的测量方法。当一个地区的生态承载力小于生态足迹时,出现生态赤字,生态赤字表明该地区生态安全受到胁迫;当生态承载力大于生态足迹时,则产生生态盈余,此时认为该地区生态系统是安全的,人类的发展处于可持续状态。可见生态盈亏平衡分析可以为地区可持续发展提供生态预警作用。     

Wilderness,a probe into "cultural carrying capacity"

Population policy for human beings must be governed by a commitment never to transcend the cultural carrying capacity. Determining this capacity is a problem in values. As concerns material goods, the cultural carrying capacity is inversely proportional to the quality of life demanded. Inherently scarce goods like wilderness, which can be enjoyed by only a few, pose this ethical problem: can we agree on a basis for choosing an elite, or must we, like the French revolutionary Gracchus Babeuf, insist on equal distribution even if the only possible allotment is then zero? If we reject Babeuf we must recognize that the maximum population cannot be the optimum.     

人口容量属于社会范畴还是自然范畴？

本文通过分析影响人口容量的因素,提出社会因素是影响人口容量大小的重要决定因素,并指出其现实意义。     

主体功能区人口承载能力研究

从人口承载能力水平看,限制开发区、重点开发区、优化开发区总体呈现承载能力梯次降低的格局。无论优化开发区、重点开发区还是限制开发区人口承载能力满意程度出现了一定分化,人口的不平衡分布在不同开发区之间,以及开发区内部都得以显现。采取多管齐下的措施合理控制人口规模,引导人口向郊区流动,是京沪穗深等一线城市比较现实的政策取向。其他优化开发区和重点开发区应提高人口承载的短板,限制开发区要加大财政投入,提高公共服务水平,鼓励人口向宜居地区流动。     

Study of Main Function District Population Carrying Capacity

The population carrying capacity of restricted district,key development district,optimized district appear gradient decrease. While differentiation of satisfaction regarding population capacity appears in optimizing district, key development districts or restricted districts, the unbalanced distribution of population between districts or within districts emerges. Using multi-pronged measures to reasonably control population size and guide the movement of population to the suburbs, this is a realistic policy direction for Beijing,Shanghai Guangzhou and Shenzhen First-tier cities. Other optimizing districts and key development districts should raise their population carrying capacity’s short board. Restricted district should increase their financial input and improve their Improve their level of public service.     

Residential mobility orientations of children and youth

This article addresses itself to issues in the socialization of young people to residential mobility orientations. Our conceptual framework emphasizes the importance of social context and active experience in the development of these orientations. Data from samples of youth from sixth to twelfth grades show them to have reasonable, if slightly conservative, mobility expectations. Other findings in the paper are consistent with the importance of social location and interpersonal relationships in youth socialization.The research on which this paper was based was supported by National Science Foundation Grant GS-39779. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 1974. Reuqests for reprints should be directed to Dr. Nam, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306.