A new extended generalized Gompertz distribution with statistical properties and simulations

Abstract

Statistical distributions are very useful in describing and predicting real world phenomena. In many applied areas there is a clear need for the extended forms of the well-known distributions. Generally, the new distributions are more flexible to model real data that present a high degree of skewness and kurtosis. The choice of the best-suited statistical distribution for modeling data is very important.

In this article, we proposed an extended generalized Gompertz (EGGo) family of EGGo. Certain statistical properties of EGGo family including distribution shapes, hazard function, skewness, limit behavior, moments and order statistics are discussed. The flexibility of this family is assessed by its application to real data sets and comparison with other competing distributions. The maximum likelihood equations for estimating the parameters based on real data are given. The performances of the estimators such as maximum likelihood estimators, least squares estimators, weighted least squares estimators, Cramer-von-Mises estimators, Anderson-Darling estimators and right tailed Anderson-Darling estimators are discussed. The likelihood ratio test is derived to illustrate that the EGGo distribution is better than other nested models in fitting data set or not. We use R software for simulation in order to perform applications and test the validity of this model.     

A minimum variance adaptive technique for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing

This report presents numerical results of an approach for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing that does not rely on specific assumptions about the underlying distribution of errors in the measured data. This approach combines robust estimation procedures, the bootstrap method for estimation of parameter uncertainties, permutation techniques for hypothesis testing, and adaptive approaches to estimation in order to obtain the minimum variance estimator or test statistic (within a predefined class) for the data under consideration. The technique produces efficient estimators of central tendency and powerful test statistics, even for small sample sizes. (Portions of this work have been presented in preliminary form (Turkheimer et al., 1996)).     

Monte Carlo studies of some adaptive robust procedures for location

One linear and two nonlinear adaptive robust procedures have been developed in which preliminary statistics, based on tail lengths, attempt to identify distributions from which the samples arise so that a suitable robust estimator based on trimmed means can be used to estimate the location parameter. The efficiencies of the estimators based on the three proposed adaptive robust procedures have been obtained using Monte Carlo methods involving eight distributions and these efficiencies are compared with the efficiencies of nineteen other robust estimators.     

Extreme quantile estimation based on financial time series

Estimation of market risk is an important problem in finance. Two well-known risk measures, viz., value at risk and median shortfall, turn out to be extreme quantiles of the marginal distribution of asset return. Time series on asset returns are known to exhibit certain stylized facts, such as heavy tails, skewness, volatility clustering, etc. Therefore, estimation of extreme quantiles in the presence of such features in the data seems to be of natural interest. It is difficult to capture most of these stylized facts using one specific time series model. This motivates nonparametric and extreme value theory-based estimation of extreme quantiles that do not require exact specification of the asset return model. We review these quantile estimators and compare their known properties. Their finite sample performance are compared using Monte Carlo simulation. We propose a new estimator that exhibits encouraging finite sample performance while estimating extreme quantile in the right tail region.     

An Influence Function Approach to Describing the Skewness of a Distribution

Skewness, like kurtosis, is a qualitative property of a distribution. A comparison of several measures of skewness of univariate distributions is carried out. Hampel's influence function is used to clarify the differences and similarities among these measures. A general concept of skewness as a location- and scale-free deformation of the probability mass of a symmetric distribution emerges. Positive skewness can be thought of as resulting from movement of mass at the right of the median from the center to the right tail of the distribution together with movement of mass at the left of the median from the left tail to the center of the distribution.     

The “wrong skewness” problem in stochastic frontier models: A new approach

Stochastic frontier models are widely used to measure, e.g., technical efficiencies of firms. The classical stochastic frontier model often suffers from the empirical artefact that the residuals of the production function may have a positive skewness, whereas a negative one is expected under the model, which leads to estimated full efficiencies of all firms. We propose a new approach to the problem by generalizing the distribution used for the inefficiency variable. This generalized stochastic frontier model allows the sample data to have the wrong skewness while estimating well-defined and nondegenerate efficiency measures. We discuss the statistical properties of the model, and we discuss a test for the symmetry of the error term (no inefficiency). We provide a simulation study to show that our model delivers estimators of efficiency with smaller bias than those of the classical model even if the population skewness has the correct sign. Finally, we apply the model to data of the U.S. textile industry for 1958–2005 and show that for a number of years our model suggests technical efficiencies well below the frontier while the classical one estimates no inefficiency in those years.     

Goodness-of-fit testing for Weibull-type behavior

In the process of analyzing data, testing the fit of a model under consideration is a prerequisite for performing inference about the model parameters. In this paper we examine the goodness-of-fit testing problem for assessing whether a sample is consistent with the Weibull-type model. Inspired by the Jackson and the Lewis test statistics, originally proposed as goodness-of-fit tests for the exponential distribution, we introduce two new statistics for testing Weibull-type behavior, and study their asymptotic properties. Moreover, given that the statistics are ratios of estimators for the Weibull-tail coefficient, we obtain new estimators for the latter, and establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. The small sample behavior of our statistics and estimators is evaluated on the basis of a simulation study.     

Skewness,kurtosis, and black-scholes option mispricing

The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes that (instantaneous) common stock returns are normally distributed. However, the observed distribution exhibits deviations from normality; in particular skewness and kurtosis. We attribute these deviations to gross data errors. Using options' transactions data, we establish that the sample standard deviation, sample skewness, and sample kurtosis contribute to the Black-Scholes model's observed mispricing of a sample from the Berkeley Options Data Base of 2323 call options written on 88 common stocks paying no dividends during the options'life. Following Huber's statement that the primary case for robust statistics is when the shape of the observed distribution deviates slightly from the assumed distribution (usually the Gaussian), we show that robust volatility estimators eliminate the mispricing with respect to sample skewness and sample kurtosis, and significantly improve the Black-Scholes model's pricing performance with respect to estimated volatility.     

Non‐parametric Estimation of Extreme Risk Measures from Conditional Heavy‐tailed Distributions

In this paper, we introduce a new risk measure, the so‐called conditional tail moment. It is defined as the moment of order a ≥ 0 of the loss distribution above the upper α‐quantile where α ∈ (0,1). Estimating the conditional tail moment permits us to estimate all risk measures based on conditional moments such as conditional tail expectation, conditional value at risk or conditional tail variance. Here, we focus on the estimation of these risk measures in case of extreme losses (where α ↓0 is no longer fixed). It is moreover assumed that the loss distribution is heavy tailed and depends on a covariate. The estimation method thus combines non‐parametric kernel methods with extreme‐value statistics. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is established, and their finite‐sample behaviour is illustrated both on simulated data and on a real data set of daily rainfalls.     

Tail-Adaptive Location Rank Test for the Generalized Secant Hyperbolic Distribution

The generalized secant hyperbolic distribution (GSHD) was recently introduced as a modeling tool in data analysis. The GSHD is a unimodal distribution that is completely specified by location, scale, and shape parameters. It has also been shown elsewhere that the rank procedures of location are regular, robust, and asymptotically fully efficient. In this article, we study certain tail weight measures for the GSHD and introduce a tail-adaptive rank procedure of location based on those tail weight measures. We investigate the properties of the new adaptive rank procedure and compare it to some conventional estimators.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for one-shot device accelerated life testing data

In this article, we develop a formal goodness-of-fit testing procedure for one-shot device testing data, in which each observation in the sample is either left censored or right censored. Such data are also called current status data. We provide an algorithm for calculating the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) of the unknown lifetime distribution based on such data. Then, we consider four different test statistics that can be used for testing the goodness-of-fit of accelerated failure time (AFT) model by the use of samples of residuals: a chi-square-type statistic based on the difference between the empirical and expected numbers of failures at each inspection time; two other statistics based on the difference between the NPMLE of the lifetime distribution obtained from one-shot device testing data and the distribution specified under the null hypothesis; as a final statistic, we use White's idea of comparing two estimators of the Fisher Information (FI) to propose a test statistic. We then compare these tests in terms of power, and draw some conclusions. Finally, we present an example to illustrate the proposed tests.     

A non-homogeneous skew-Gaussian Bayesian spatial model

In spatial statistics, models are often constructed based on some common, but possible restrictive assumptions for the underlying spatial process, including Gaussianity as well as stationarity and isotropy. However, these assumptions are frequently violated in applied problems. In order to simultaneously handle skewness and non-homogeneity (i.e., non-stationarity and anisotropy), we develop the fixed rank kriging model through the use of skew-normal distribution for its non-spatial latent variables. Our approach to spatial modeling is easy to implement and also provides a great flexibility in adjusting to skewed and large datasets with heterogeneous correlation structures. We adopt a Bayesian framework for our analysis, and describe a simple MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the model parameters and performing spatial prediction. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed model could detect departures from normality and, for illustration, we analyze a synthetic dataset of CO\(_2\) measurements. Finally, to deal with multivariate spatial data showing some degree of skewness, a multivariate extension of the model is also provided.     

A continuously adaptive nonparametric two–sample test

A two–sample test statistic for detecting shifts in location is developed for a broad range of underlying distributions using adaptive techniques. The test statistic is a linear rank statistics which uses a simple modification of the Wilcoxon test; the scores are Winsorized ranks where the upper and lower Winsorinzing proportions are estimated in the first stage of the adaptive procedure using sample the first stage of the adaptive procedure using sample measures of the distribution's skewness and tailweight. An empirical relationship between the Winsorizing proportions and the sample skewness and tailweight allows for a ‘continuous’ adaptation of the test statistic to the data. The test has good asymptotic properties, and the small sample results are compared with other populatr parametric, nonparametric, and two–stage tests using Monte Carlo methods. Based on these results, this proposed test procedure is recommended for moderate and larger sample sizes.     

A method of moments estimator of tail dependence in meta-elliptical models

A meta-elliptical model is a distribution function whose copula is that of an elliptical distribution. The tail dependence function in such a bivariate model has a parametric representation with two parameters: a tail parameter and a correlation parameter. The correlation parameter can be estimated by robust methods based on the whole sample. Using the estimated correlation parameter as plug-in estimator, we then estimate the tail parameter applying a modification of the method of moments approach proposed in the paper by Einmahl et al. (2008). We show that such an estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Further, we derive the joint limit distribution of the estimators of the two parameters. We illustrate the small sample behavior of the estimator of the tail parameter by a simulation study and on real data, and we compare its performance to that of the competitive estimators.     

Behaviour of skewness, kurtosis and normality tests in long memory data

We establish the limiting distributions for empirical estimators of the coefficient of skewness, kurtosis, and the Jarque–Bera normality test statistic for long memory linear processes. We show that these estimators, contrary to the case of short memory, are neither ${\sqrt{n}}We establish the limiting distributions for empirical estimators of the coefficient of skewness, kurtosis, and the Jarque–Bera normality test statistic for long memory linear processes. We show that these estimators, contrary to the case of short memory, are neither ?n{\sqrt{n}}-consistent nor asymptotically normal. The normalizations needed to obtain the limiting distributions depend on the long memory parameter d. A direct consequence is that if data are long memory then testing normality with the Jarque–Bera test by using the chi-squared critical values is not valid. Therefore, statistical inference based on skewness, kurtosis, and the Jarque–Bera normality test, needs a rescaling of the corresponding statistics and computing new critical values of their nonstandard limiting distributions.     

A new compound class of log-logistic Weibull–Poisson distribution: model,properties and applications

A new class of distributions called the log-logistic Weibull–Poisson distribution is introduced and its properties are explored. This new distribution represents a more flexible model for lifetime data. Some statistical properties of the proposed distribution including the expansion of the density function, quantile function, hazard and reverse hazard functions, moments, conditional moments, moment generating function, skewness and kurtosis are presented. Mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Rényi entropy and distribution of the order statistics are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the model parameters. A simulation study is conducted to examine the bias, mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimators and width of the confidence interval for each parameter and finally applications of the model to real data sets are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed distribution.     

On adaptive estimation

Point estimates that are weighted averages of other estimates are considered. They are adaptive because the weights are also functions of the sample observations.In particular, the weights are functions of new measures of peakedness and skewness. Five adaptive estimators are compared (in a Monte Carlo study using the swindle) to some of the usual estimators, including those robust ones of Huber and Tukey. In addition, the swindle constant is considered in some detail. All of the adaptive estimators do extremely well with an adaptive biweight statistic being the best one in this study. Suggestions are made about future directions in this area.     

A review of some adaptive statistical techniques

We present several methods for full, partial, and practical adaptation. Selector statistics that are measures of skewness, peakedness, and tailweight are used, primarily in estimating loca-tion in some single-sample situations. We note several practical adaptive techniques in current use, including illustrations in-volving stepwise regression, analysis of variance, ridge regres-sion, and splines. We suggest some areas in which future develop-ment of adaptive methods is needed:density estimation; M, R, and L estimation in regression; and dependent data. There is also a need to develop better selector statistics.     

A generalization of the log-series distribution

A new generalized logarithmic series distribution (GLSD) with two parameters is proposed.The proposed model is flexible enough to describe short-tailed as well as long-tailed data.Some recurence relations for its probabilities and the factorial moments are presente.These recurrence relations are utilized to obtain the minimum chi-square estimators for the parmaters.Maximum likelihood estimators and some other estimators based on first few moments and probabilities are also suggested.Asymptotic relative efficiency of some of these estimators is also obtained and compared.Two test statistics based on the minimum chi-square estimators fo testing some hypotheses regarding the GLSD are proposed.The fit of the model and the application of the test statistics are exemplified by some data sets.Finally, a graphical method is suggested for differentiating between the ordinary logarithmic series distribution and the GLSD.     

Testing symmetry under a skew Laplace model

We develop tests of hypothesis about symmetry based on samples from possibly asymmetric Laplace distributions and present exact and limiting distribution of the test statistics. We postulate that the test statistic derived under the Laplace model is a rational choice as a measure of skewness and can be used in testing symmetry for other, quite general classes of skew distributions. Our results are applied to foreign exchange rates for 15 currencies.