Population Dynamics: Poverty,Inequality, and Self-Regulating Fertility Rates

Population growth without a parallel increase in capital impoverishes any society and tends to deepen inequality. The system is dynamic because people who perceive or foresee contracting economic opportunity usually restrict family size. Worsening poverty feeds back into the loop to slow, then stop further population growth.     

A Poisson-Based Framework for Setting Poverty Thresholds Using Indicator Lists

Poverty is one of the most important concepts in the social sciences, yet commonly-used thresholds for the operationalization of poverty have little or no conceptual basis. This is especially true of the “relative deprivation” poverty concept, where the arbitrary threshold of missing k ≥ 3 items from a list of socially defined necessities is the accepted operationalization. This paper presents a conceptual framework for meaningfully setting k based on the properties of the Poisson distribution. Data from the 2011 Swiss Household Panel are used to illustrate this approach for three poverty concepts: conventional relative deprivation based on non-affordability of items (“afford-deprivation”), simplified relative deprivation based on non-possession of items (“possess-deprivation”), and a novel approach based on the status syndrome concept (“high life burden”). Proof-of-concept analyses suggest thresholds of k ≥ 2 for conventional afford-deprivation, k ≥ 5 for possess-deprivation, and k ≥ 6 for high life burden. In addition to providing a rationale for k, the Poisson-based approach allows for the systematic variation of k in different empirical contexts. It also supports the estimation of “adjusted” poverty rates that account for the chance probability that non-poverty households are accidentally miscategorized as being in poverty.     

俄罗斯人口贫困化与人口危机

苏联解体后,俄罗斯实行激进改革,经济持续6年下滑,人民生活水平急剧下降,已有1/3的人口生活在贫困线以下。经济生活的贫困,加剧了生育观念的变化,拒绝生育或减少生育的趋势增加。俄罗斯已进入世界上生育最低的十个国家的行列。贫困化加剧了人口危机,人口危机又加剧了俄罗斯的发展危机。要真正解决人口危机问题,首先要解决好经济发展问题。     

浅谈适度贫困人口

贫困与发展是一个跨世纪跨国界的重大历史课题。要彻底消灭贫困非朝夕之功可成,客观地去面对贫困人口问题才是当前之要务。本文提出适度贫困人口理论,正是想从阐述贫困人口的发展历程及其存在的现实必然性,从另一个角度探讨贫困人口问题与经济发展的关系;概述测度贫困人口的方法,并探讨衡量适度贫困人口的方法。     

城镇化进程中的人口流动与城镇新增贫困人口问题分析

在城镇化的过程中,农村人口净流向城镇。这一方面推动城镇和农村的发展,另一方面带来城镇贫困人口的增加。由农村流入城镇的人口其贫困发生率大致在3%以上。为预防和保障人口流动中的城镇新增贫困人口,应该采取措施分类引导人口的城镇化,建立和完善进入城镇农民的社会保障体系,积极发展城镇服务业等第三产业,避免过度的城市化带来城镇贫困问题的扩大。     

近代早期英国的人口增长与贫困问题

作为人类自身生产的人口增长具有物极必反的效应,近代早期英国的人口增长正是如此。本文立足近代早期英国人口增长的历史状况,试图对此时英国人口增长给英国社会带来的贫困问题予以解析。作者从人口增长量、人口结构和社会影响等方面分析英国人口的急剧增长给英国社会所带来的更多负面作用——贫困问题。籍此我们认识到无限制的人口增长之所以带来社会问题的原因和保持人口适度增长是社会和谐的关键这一历史规律。     

Surnames in US Population Records

Two federal agencies have used surnames to classify persons by ethnicity. As two important twentieth‐century examples, names were used to set immigration quotas, and the Census Bureau used names as the defining characteristic of Hispanics. However, many names have been changed and, if unaltered, they are in any case an unreliable index of ethnic identity.     

Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates in US: Evidence from Regional Data

Unemployment rate is an important social indicator for unhappiness. This paper explores the informational value of the United States unemployment rate via examining whether the labor-force participation rate is featured with non-stationary processes from the geographical location perspective. We apply the recently developed flexible Fourier stationarity test proposed by Enders and Lee (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 74:574–599 2012). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), ADF-GLS and KPSS univariate tests, we find little evidence for stationarity; and (2) when we employ the flexible Fourier univariate test with consider of structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 45 out of 51 states. Based on our results, we argue that the unemployment rate alone, without understanding participation behavior, does not provide an overall picture for the melancholy jobless people.     

Population,Reproductive Health and Poverty Alleviation in China

~~Population,Reproductive Health and Poverty Alleviation in China     

A Measure Whose Time has Come: Formalizing Time Poverty

Poverty remains a primary public policy issue, and a large literature has discussed the limitations of an income poverty measure. Using income as an indicator of poverty is a helpful simplification designed to capture ability to meet consumption needs. We argue that time is a basic economic resource allocated to create well-being along with income. Time is a scarce resource that individuals and households must allocate to produce goods, obtain services, and pursue rest and relaxation. Time poverty has been proposed as a complement to income poverty, yet it remains a relatively unknown measure in both policy and research spheres. The many ways time poverty is conceptualized and measured across studies has limited its adoption. To help familiarize readers with time poverty, we apply basic tenets of income poverty measurement to time. We conduct a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature discussing similarities, differences, and the pros and cons of different approaches to time poverty. In particular, inconsistent definition and categorization of necessary and discretionary time has been a barrier to the transparent application of time poverty in the literature, and we outline guidance on defining necessary and discretionary time for future studies. Finally, we outline future research directions for time poverty.     

Population and Poverty in Classical Theory: Testing a Structural Model for India

There has for many years been debate over the relationships between population growth rates and poverty. India is a country which provides a good testing ground for hypotheses about this relationship because since Independence a relatively high proportion of the population have lived in poverty; and there also exist reasonable data. This paper develops a simple structural model to investigate the relationship between population growth and poverty in particular, testing a series of hypotheses developed from the work of Marx and Malthus. The data are analysed at state level, and attention is drawn to the problems that this might cause as behaviour is typically determined at the individual household level. The results show that agricultural productivity and the process of landlessness are better predictors of poverty at a state level than the population growth rate. It is argued that the results fit better with the views of Marx than those of Malthus.     

西北地区贫困人口问题研究

长期以来,西北地区贫困人口呈现出总量比例高、生态贫困问题严重、贫困人口与少数民族人口重合性高等几大特点。生态环境恶劣、人口数量超过自然资源环境承载能力、生产经营方式落后、教育滞后、城镇辐射能力不足等因素是造成西北地区贫困人口问题的重要原因。因此,应加大扶贫力度,扩大扶贫资金来源渠道,建立农业可持续发展模式,转变贫困人口生育观念,促进经济增长方式转变,根据贫困程度进行适当的生态移民是缓解西北地区贫困问题的基本思路。     

中国老年贫困人口规模研究

利用最低生活保障数据,采用不同贫困标准,对中国老年贫困人口规模进行测算。采用农村贫困线和"1天1美元"两个标准,测得农村老年贫困人口规模在1 400万人以上;采用城镇最低生活保障标准和"1天2美元"两个标准,测得城镇老年贫困人口规模在300万人左右。这样,中国老年贫困人口总规模近1 800万,老年贫困发生率超过10%。     

人口转变与老年贫困问题的理论思考

文章将人口转变与老年贫困之间的关系置于社会经济转型的大环境中,从理论的角度探讨了社会和家庭层次的人口转变与65岁及以上老年群体经济贫困和社会贫困之间的关系。人口转变与老年贫困之间呈复杂的动态关系,因人口转变的不同维度、贫困的不同类型、不同老年人群而异。文章指出,人口转变不一定带来老年贫困,但要防微杜渐,未雨绸缪。     

人口立法与人口教育应同步进行

我国《人口与计划生育法》实施以来,不仅使我国司法机关和人口工作者在人口管理中有法可依,而且给理论工作者拓展了一个新的研究空间。人口教育对人口立法起着制约的作用,二者只有同步进行,才能充分发挥法律效力,实现人口与经济、社会、资源、环境的协调发展。     

婴儿潮与人口高龄化对美国经济的影响

婴儿潮时代与其他世代相比较具有非常突出的特点及相当大的影响力。他们逐渐隐退并脱离劳动市场,其结果有可能会比预期的更加严重。首先,劳动市场会出现供需不均现象;其次庞大的金融资产将会转移。不仅如此,对消费市场也会产生一定的影响。深刻理解随着对国家经济产生重大影响的婴儿潮时代逐渐高龄化而引起的问题点,对数十年后将要经历类似问题的发展中国家的经济开发计划具有深远意义。     

Introduction to Special Issue: Population,Environment, and Poverty

Nationally and globally economic growth is not solving the problem of poverty. What other approaches can be recommended. A conference to discuss this question included William Rees, Herman Daly, Wes Jackson, Virginia Abernethy, and Majid Rahnema whose papers are included in this issue. Among the issues discussed is whether the contribution of nature to the economy should be taxed by government for the benefit of the poor; how current policies pauperize farmers and what can be done about it; and how population growth is related to economic prospects. The understanding of poverty as lack of the ability to acquire goods was challenged.     

经济转轨以前俄罗斯人口贫困状况及原因

人口贫困是一个内涵十分广泛和深刻的社会历史范畴,究其实质而言,这是一种能力贫困。中国和俄罗斯等转轨国家在改革前存在许多共同的特征,更为重要的是,社会主义制度不是建立在高度发达的资本主义社会基础之上,这就注定了贫困与反贫困问题必然要成为这些国家面临的共同课题。所不同的是,苏联和当代俄罗斯的人口贫困主要表现为收入贫困,中国则主要是知识贫困。苏联时期人口贫困的主要原因有经济绩效的递减趋势、国家经济发展战略的错误、所有制结构的单一、收入分配机制中的平均主义。     

Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System

According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long‐term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long‐run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long‐run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under‐predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.     

Assessing the Impact of Population Dynamics on Poverty Measures: A Decomposition Analysis

Social Indicators Research - Reducing income inequality is one of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals recently announced by United Nations. A relative poverty concept adopted by...