Multiple-objective response-adaptive repeated measurement designs for clinical trials

In a response-adaptive design, we review and update the trial on the basis of outcomes in order to achieve a specific goal. Response-adaptive designs for clinical trials are usually constructed to achieve a single objective. In this paper, we develop a new adaptive allocation rule to improve current strategies for building response-adaptive designs to construct multiple-objective repeated measurement designs. This new rule is designed to increase estimation precision and treatment benefit by assigning more patients to a better treatment sequence. We demonstrate that designs constructed under the new proposed allocation rule can be nearly as efficient as fixed optimal designs in terms of the mean squared error, while leading to improved patient care.     

Efficient circular neighbour designs for spatial interference model

We consider circular block designs for field-trials when there are two-sided spatial interference between neighbouring plots of the same blocks. The parameter of interest is total effects that is the sum of direct effect of treatment and neighbour effects, which correspond to the use of a single treatment in the whole field. We determine universally optimal approximate designs. When the number of blocks may be large, we propose efficient exact designs generated by a single sequence of treatment. We also give efficiency factors of the usual binary block neighbour balanced designs which can be used when the number of blocks is small.     

Construction and analysis of edge designs from skew-symmetric supplementary difference sets

The purpose of screening experiments is to identify the dominant variables from a set of many potentially active variables which may affect some characteristic y. Edge designs were recently introduced in the literature and are constructed by using conferences matrices and were proved to be robust. We introduce a new class of edge designs which are constructed from skew-symmetric supplementary difference sets. These designs are particularly useful since they can be applied for experiments with an even number of factors and they may exist for orders where conference matrices do not exist. Using this methodology, examples of new edge designs for 6, 14, 22, 26, 38, 42, 46, 58, and 62 factors are constructed. Of special interest are the new edge designs for studying 22 and 58 factors because edge designs with these parameters have not been constructed in the literature since conference matrices of the corresponding order do not exist. The suggested new edge designs achieve the same model-robustness as the traditional edge designs. We also suggest the use of a mirror edge method as a test for the linearity of the true underlying model. We give the details of the methodology and provide some illustrating examples for this new approach. We also show that the new designs have good D-efficiencies when applied to first order models.     

Optimal designs for the Michaelis–Menten model with correlated observations

In this paper we investigate the problem of designing experiments for generalized least-squares analysis in the Michaelis–Menten model. We study the structure of exact D-optimal designs in a model with an autoregressive error structure. Explicit results for locally D-optimal designs are derived for the case where two observations can be taken per subject. Additionally standardized maximin D-optimal designs are obtained in this case. The results illustrate the enormous difficulties to find exact optimal designs explicitly for nonlinear regression models with correlated observations.     

BALANCED ARRAYS AND WEIGHING DESIGNS

Dey (19711, Saha (1975), Kageyama & Saha (1983) and others have shown how optimum chemical balance weighing designs can be constructed from the incidence matrices of balanced incomplete block (BIB) designs. In this paper, it is shown that weighing designs can be constructed from some suitably chosen two-symbol balanced arrays of strength two, which need not always be incidence matrices of BIB designs. The findings lead us to construct new optimum chemical balance weighing designs from incidence matrices of BIB designs.     

Comparison of predictions by kriging and spatial autoregressive models

In geostatistics, the prediction of unknown quantities at given locations is commonly made by the kriging technique. In addition to the kriging technique for modeling regular lattice spatial data, the spatial autoregressive models can also be used. In this article, the spatial autoregressive model and the kriging technique are introduced. We extend prediction method proposed by Basu and Reinsel for SAR(2,1) model. Then, using a simulation study and real data, we compare prediction accuracy of the spatial autoregressive models with that of the kriging prediction. The results of simulation study show that predictions made by the autoregressive models are good competitor for the kriging method.     

Efficient three-level screening designs using weighing matrices

Screening is the first stage of many industrial experiments and is used to determine efficiently and effectively a small number of potential factors among a large number of factors which may affect a particular response. In a recent paper, Jones and Nachtsheim [A class of three-level designs for definitive screening in the presence of second-order effects. J. Qual. Technol. 2011;43:1–15] have given a class of three-level designs for screening in the presence of second-order effects using a variant of the coordinate exchange algorithm as it was given by Meyer and Nachtsheim [The coordinate-exchange algorithm for constructing exact optimal experimental designs. Technometrics 1995;37:60–69]. Xiao et al. [Constructing definitive screening designs using conference matrices. J. Qual. Technol. 2012;44:2–8] have used conference matrices to construct definitive screening designs with good properties. In this paper, we propose a method for the construction of efficient three-level screening designs based on weighing matrices and their complete foldover. This method can be considered as a generalization of the method proposed by Xiao et al. [Constructing definitive screening designs using conference matrices. J. Qual. Technol. 2012;44:2–8]. Many new orthogonal three-level screening designs are constructed and their properties are explored. These designs are highly D-efficient and provide uncorrelated estimates of main effects that are unbiased by any second-order effect. Our approach is relatively straightforward and no computer search is needed since our designs are constructed using known weighing matrices.     

Efficient design of experiments in the Monod model

Summary. Estimation and experimental design in a non-linear regression model that is used in microbiology are studied. The Monod model is defined implicitly by a differential equation and has numerous applications in microbial growth kinetics, water research, pharmacokinetics and plant physiology. It is proved that least squares estimates are asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is the basis for the construction of efficient designs of experiments. In particular locally D -, E - and c -optimal designs are determined and their properties are studied theoretically and by simulation. If certain intervals for the non-linear parameters can be specified, locally optimal designs can be constructed which are robust with respect to a misspecification of the initial parameters and which allow efficient parameter estimation. Parameter variances can be decreased by a factor of 2 by simply sampling at optimal times during the experiment.     

Design and relative efficiency in two-phase studies

Many two-phase sampling designs have been applied in practice to obtain efficient estimates of regression parameters while minimizing the cost of data collection. This research investigates two-phase sampling designs for so-called expensive variable problems, and compares them with one-phase designs. Closed form expressions for the asymptotic relative efficiency of maximum likelihood estimators from the two designs are derived for parametric normal models, providing insight into the available information for regression coefficients under the two designs. We further discuss when we should apply the two-phase design and how to choose the sample sizes for two-phase samples. Our numerical study indicates that the results can be applied to more general settings.     

Simplex based space filling designs

Space filling designs are important for deterministic computer experiments. Even a single experiment can be very time consuming and can have many input parameters. Furthermore the underlying function generating the output is often nonlinear. Thus, the computer experiment has to be designed carefully. There exist many design criteria, which can be numerically optimized. Here, a method is developed, which does not need algorithmic optimization. A mesh of nearly regular simplices is constructed and the vertices of the simplices are used as potential design points. The extraction of a design from these meshes is very fast and easy to implement once the underlying mesh has been constructed. The extracted designs are highly competitive regarding the maximin design criterion and it is easy to extract designs for nonstandard design spaces.     

Optimal design for the Bradley–Terry paired comparison model

Paired comparisons are a popular tool for questionnaires in psychological marketing research. The quality of the statistical analysis of the responses heavily depends on the design, i.e. the choice of the alternatives in the comparisons. In this paper we show that the structure of locally optimal designs changes substantially with the parameters in the underlying utility. This fact is illustrated by elementary examples, where the optimal designs can be completely characterized. As an alternative maximin efficient designs are proposed which perform well for all parameter settings. Research supported by grant Ho 1286 of the German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft).     

CONSTRUCTION OF CROSSOVER DESIGNS WITH CORRELATED ERRORS

Crossover experiments are widely used, particularly where a sequence of treatments is given to subjects. Correlations between observations on the same subject are therefore likely and should be considered in both the design and analysis of crossover experiments. This paper presents an algorithm for the generation of efficient crossover designs with autoregressive and linear variance structures. The algorithm has been implemented as a module in the experimental design generation package CycDesigN (Release 3.0; CycSoftware, Hamilton, New Zealand). Output from the algorithm is compared with earlier work. Some results are given from the analysis of a crossover experiment assuming correlated errors.     

Highly Efficient Designs for Logistic Models with Categorical Variables

Optimal designs for logistic models generally require prior information about the values of the regression parameters. However, experimenters usually do not have full knowledge of these parameters. We propose a design that is D-optimal on a restricted design region. This design assigns an equal weight to design points that contain more information and ignores those design points that contain less information about the regression parameters. The design can be constructed in practice by means of the rank order of the outcome variances. A numerical study compares the proposed design with the D-optimal and completely balanced designs in terms of efficiency.     

A candidate-set-free algorithm for generating D-optimal split-plot designs

Summary.  We introduce a new method for generating optimal split-plot designs. These designs are optimal in the sense that they are efficient for estimating the fixed effects of the statistical model that is appropriate given the split-plot design structure. One advantage of the method is that it does not require the prior specification of a candidate set. This makes the production of split-plot designs computationally feasible in situations where the candidate set is too large to be tractable. The method allows for flexible choice of the sample size and supports inclusion of both continuous and categorical factors. The model can be any linear regression model and may include arbitrary polynomial terms in the continuous factors and interaction terms of any order. We demonstrate the usefulness of this flexibility with a 100-run polypropylene experiment involving 11 factors where we found a design that is substantially more efficient than designs that are produced by using other approaches.     

OPTIMUM SINGULAR SPRING BALANCE WEIGHING DESIGNS WITH NON-HOMOGENEITY OF THE VARIANCES OF ERRORS FOR ESTIMATING THE TOTAL WEIGHT

The problem of estimation of the total weight of objects using a singular spring balance weighing design with non-homogeneity of the variances of errors has been dealt with in this paper. Based on a theorem by Katulska (1984) giving a lower bound for the variance of the estimated total weight, a necessary and sufficient condition for this lower bound to be attained is obtained. It is shown that weighing designs for which the the lower bound is attainable, can be constructed from the incidence matrices of (α₁,.,α_t)-resolvable block designs, α-resolvable block designs, singular group divisible designs, and semi-regular group divisible designs.     

THE AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR SPATIAL ANALYSIS

A two dimensional autoregressive moving average spatial model is used to analyse spatial interaction. Maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are derived as the solution of a system of nonlinear equations, and are shown to be best asymptotic normal. One important computational procedure is discussed. The argument is extended to the general regression model with autoregressive moving average residuals. Explicit computational formulae are given.     

Optimal block designs comparing treatments with a control when the errors are correlated

The efficient design of experiments for comparing a control with v new treatments when the data are dependent is investigated. We concentrate on generalized least-squares estimation for a known covariance structure. We consider block sizes k equal to 3 or 4 and approximate designs. This method may lead to exact optimal designs for some v, b, k, but usually will only indicate the structure of an efficient design for any particular v, b, k, and yield an efficiency bound, usually unattainable. The bound and the structure can then be used to investigate efficient finite designs.     

EFFICIENT BLOCK DESIGNS FOR CORRELATED OBSERVATIONS

Current methods for the design of efficient incomplete block experiments when the observations within a block are dependent usually involve computer searches of binary designs. These searches give little insight into the features that lead to efficiency, and can miss more efficient designs. This paper aims to develop some approximations which give some insight into the features of a design that lead to high efficiency under a generalized least-squares analysis for a known dependence structure, and to show that non-binary designs can be more efficient for some dependence structures. In particular, we show how neighbour balance and end plot balance are related to the design efficiency for low-order autoregressions, and that under moderate positive dependence, replication at lag two can sometimes increase efficiency.     

Saturated main-effect designs for factorial experiments

The results of a computer search for saturated designs for 2ⁿ factorial experiments with n runs is reported, (where n = 2 mod 4). A complete search of the design space is avoided by focussing on designs constructed from cyclic generators. A method of searching quickly for the best generators is given. The resulting designs are as good as, and sometimes better than, designs obtained via search algorithms reported in the literature. The addition of a further factor having three levels is also considered. Here, too, a complete search is avoided by restricting attention to the most efficient part of the design space under p-efficiency.     

空气质量对生活满意度的效应研究——基于序数分层空间自回归Probit模型

在居民生活满意度的相关研究中,除考虑人口学特征外,越来越多的实证同时考虑了微观个体所处的宏观环境,对这类呈嵌套结构的分层数据需构建分层统计模型,但传统的分层统计模型未考虑真实的空间依赖。本文将分层统计模型和空间自回归模型相结合,创新性地构建了四种序数分层空间自回归Probit模型,该类模型能够合理地对因变量为序数且存在空间依赖情况并呈分层结构的数据进行建模,模型可避免忽略真实的空间依赖对模型估计的不利影响,且能够对高层组间的空间效应和低层个体间的空间效应区别对待,更有利于模型的解释。最后,空气质量对居民生活满意度的效应实证研究表明:空气质量确实能够对生活满意度产生影响,居民对空气质量的认识和要求并非孤立地局限于本地,而是对一个区域空气质量的空间综合结果。对比2018年和2016年模型结果可知:空气质量的福利效应无法被其他民生福祉因素所取代,并且随着空气质量相关统计信息的高度开放和广泛传播,居民更加重视空气质量,也形成了更加全局的了解。