Model‐Based Non‐parametric Variance Estimation for Systematic Sampling

Abstract. Systematic sampling is frequently used in surveys, because of its ease of implementation and its design efficiency. An important drawback of systematic sampling, however, is that no direct estimator of the design variance is available. We describe a new estimator of the model‐based expectation of the design variance, under a non‐parametric model for the population. The non‐parametric model is sufficiently flexible that it can be expected to hold at least approximately in many situations with continuous auxiliary variables observed at the population level. We prove the model consistency of the estimator for both the anticipated variance and the design variance under a non‐parametric model with a univariate covariate. The broad applicability of the approach is demonstrated on a dataset from a forestry survey.     

Collinearity: revisiting the variance inflation factor in ridge regression

Ridge regression has been widely applied to estimate under collinearity by defining a class of estimators that are dependent on the parameter k. The variance inflation factor (VIF) is applied to detect the presence of collinearity and also as an objective method to obtain the value of k in ridge regression. Contrarily to the definition of the VIF, the expressions traditionally applied in ridge regression do not necessarily lead to values of VIFs equal to or greater than 1. This work presents an alternative expression to calculate the VIF in ridge regression that satisfies the aforementioned condition and also presents other interesting properties.     

Maximum likelihood analysis of the mixed model: the balanced case

The primary purpose of this paper is to develop, analytically, the inverse of the covariance matrix for the mixed analysis-of-variance model with balanced data. The use of this matrix in the identification of minimal sufficient statistics and in developing the likelihood equations is illustrated.     

Linear models and convex geometry: aspects of non-negative variance estimation 1

Geometric aspects of linear model theory are surveyed as they bear on mean estimation, or variance covariance component estimation. It is outlined that notions associated with linear subspaces suffice for those of the customary procedures which are solely based on linear, or multilinear algebra. While conceptually simple, these methods do not always respect convexity constraints which naturally arise in variance component estimation.

Previous work on negative estimates of variance is reviewed, followed by a more detailed study of the non-negative definite analogue of the MINQUE procedure. Some characterizations are proposed which are based on convex duality theory. Optimal estimators now correspond to (non-linear) projections onto closed convex cones, they are easy to visualise, but hard to compute. No ultimate solution can be recommended, instead the paper concludes with a list of open problems.     

Ridge Regression: Degrees of Freedom in the Analysis of Variance

It appears to be common practice with ridge regression to obtain a decomposition of the total sum of squares, and assign degrees of freedom, according to established least squares theory. This discussion notes the obvious fallacies of such an approach, and introduces a decomposition based on orthogonality, and degrees of freedom based on expected mean squares, for non-stochastic k.     

Double-smoothing for bias reduction in local linear regression

Local linear regression involves fitting a straight line segment over a small region whose midpoint is the target point x, and the local linear estimate at x   is the estimated intercept of that straight line segment, with an asymptotic bias of order h²$h^2$ and variance of order (nh)^-1$(\mathit{nh}{)}^{-1}$ (h is the bandwidth). In this paper, we propose a new estimator, the double-smoothing local linear estimator, which is constructed by integrally combining all fitted values at x   of local lines in its neighborhood with another round of smoothing. The proposed estimator attempts to make use of all information obtained from fitting local lines. Without changing the order of variance, the new estimator can reduce the bias to an order of h⁴$h^4$. The proposed estimator has better performance than local linear regression in situations with considerable bias effects; it also has less variability and more easily overcomes the sparse data problem than local cubic regression. At boundary points, the proposed estimator is comparable to local linear regression. Simulation studies are conducted and an ethanol example is used to compare the new approach with other competitive methods.     

Quality of Fit Measures in the Framework of Quantile Regression

Abstract. In regression experiments, to learn about the strength of the relationship between a covariate vector and a dependent variable, we propose a ‘coefficient of determination’ based on the quantiles. Such a coefficient is a ‘local’ measure in the sense that the strength is measured at a prespecified quantile level. Once estimated, it can be used, for example, to measure the relative importance of a subset of covariates in the quantile regression context. Related to this coefficient, we also propose a new ‘local’ lack‐of‐fit measure of a given parametric model. We provide some asymptotic results of the proposed measures and carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study to illustrate their use and performance in practice.     

ON AN IDENTITY FOR FINDING MOMENTS OF SAMPLE MOMENTS OF BIVARIATE NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLES

Probabilistic arguments are used to establish an identity useful for deriving the moments of the sample variances and covariance of a bivariate normal population. Some variances and covariances are derived to illustrate the use of the identity.     

A comparison of equally spaced designs with different correlation structures in one and more dimensions

Equally spaced designs are compared using the generalized variance as a measure of efficiency. Results for polynomial models are derived on the increased efficiency arising from increasing the number of design points when the regions are fixed and when the regions are expanded. The effects of dependence among the observations on these results are studied by considering a particular family of stationary correlated error structures.     

Comparing Conditional Quantile Curves

Abstract. We consider the problem of testing the equality of J quantile curves from independent samples. A test statistic based on an L²‐distance between non‐crossing non‐parametric estimates of the quantile curves from the individual samples is proposed. Asymptotic normality of this statistic is established under the null hypothesis, local and fixed alternatives, and the finite sample properties of a bootstrap‐based version of this test statistic are investigated by means of a simulation study.     

Accent on Teaching Materials

Estimation of covariance components in the multivariate random-effect model with nested covariance structure is discussed. There are two covariance matrices to be estimated, namely, the between-group and the within-group covariance matrices. These two covariance matrices are most often estimated by forming a multivariate analysis of variance and equating mean square matrices to their expectations. Such a procedure involves taking the difference between the between-group mean square and the within-group mean square matrices, and often produces an estimated between-group covariance matrix that is not nonnegative definite. We present estimators of the two covariance matrices that are always proper covariance matrices. The estimators are the restricted maximum likelihood estimators if the random effects are normally distributed. The estimation procedure is extended to more complicated models, including the twofold nested and the mixed-effect models. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the use of the estimation procedure.