公众舆论与外交政策——现实主义与自由主义的比较

本文以现实主义和自由主义国际关系理论流派的发展、演变为视角,着力探讨了公众舆论与外交政策的互动机制以及其作为影响国家间关系的重要变量所具有的理论内涵;并对公众舆论是否具有理性,是否具有真实性、价值性等相关问题进行了比较分析与说明。     

Christian Fundamentalists and Public Opinion Toward the Middle East: Israel's New Best Friends?*

Objectives. Although Christian fundamentalist elites have become increasingly vocal in their support for Israel in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, it is not clear that this rhetoric has produced differing attitudes about U.S. foreign policy in public opinion. This article examines whether such differences exist, and whether they are rooted in aspects of fundamentalist eschatology. Methods. Data from a national telephone survey on attitudes toward the Middle East conflict and U.S. policy were examined using multivariate regression and means comparisons. Results. These results demonstrate that Christian fundamentalists are the strongest supporters of Israel in America today. Fundamentalists have greater sympathy for Israel, oppose policies to pressure Israel, and are distinctive from all other groups in their high levels of support for continuing Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, as well as complete Israeli control of Jerusalem. Conclusion. Christian fundamentalists in America are distinctive on this vital issue in American foreign policy because of their literal interpretation of the Bible or their leaders' increased cues on Middle East policies, or both. This suggests that religion is now an important factor in understanding public opinion on U.S. foreign policy in the region.     

Empowering the People: Public Responses to Welfare Policy Change

How and when does welfare policy contribute to shape public opinion? This article departs from the policy feedback research tradition and seeks to contribute to the understanding of how policy influences public opinion (public responsiveness). The argument here suggests that personal experiences in terms of empowerment condition the dynamics between policy and opinion. The empirical case concerns the implementation of a consumer's choice model in Swedish primary health care, which resulted an intended increase in private health care centres. In this case, empowerment is assumed to be enhanced by increased exit options and freedom of choice. The specific question in the analysis is whether citizens who have empowering experiences, as a consequence of the reform, are more likely to be positive towards further privatization of welfare services. The results show few effects in general, but there seems to be a correlation between the experience of exiting and more positive attitudes towards privatization.     

‘A Common Sense of the Times’? Neo‐liberalism and Changing Public Opinion in New Zealand and the UK

Neo‐liberalism represents a significant and enduring shift in the politics shaping social policy. Although frequently ascribed a hegemonic, all‐powerful status that focuses our attention on the coherence found in neo‐liberal policies, this article builds on scholarly work highlighting variegation in the neo‐liberal project across different policy areas, national settings and time periods. Specifically, it employs Peck's and Tickell's (2002) view that neo‐liberalism has gone through multiple phases in response to both external and internal crises as an entry point for studying neo‐liberalism's impact on public support for the welfare state. Drawing upon New Zealand and British attitudinal data, the article argues that public reactions to an early period of retrenchment (‘roll‐back’ neo‐liberalism) differ from those reported in the ‘roll‐out’ or embedding phase of neo‐liberalism implemented by Third Way Labour Governments in both countries. Indeed, continuing public support in many policy areas arguably contributed to the internal crisis that provoked an adaptation to the neo‐liberal project. The article further explores public support for the welfare state following the external crisis provoked by the financial meltdown of 2008–09 asking whether New Zealand and British attitudes showed signs of resisting austerity measures or whether they, instead, indicated a third, ‘roll‐over’ period of neo‐liberalism where the public accepted not only a neo‐liberal economic agenda but also the need for further retrenchment of the welfare state. Conclusions about the politics of social policy at the level of public opinion offer both good and bad news for welfare state advocates.     

Framing public policy: The impacts of political sophistication and nature of public policy

This empirical research investigates how political sophistication moderates framing effects on public opinion and attitudes. It explores when framing effects occur and who could be immune to such framing. Experimental results with multivariate analyses indicate that political sophistication enhances or reduces framing effects in shaping public views and stances, subject to the nature of public policy. When a public policy is promoted that is perceived as an easy issue, framing effects are significant for individuals who are less politically sophisticated. Alternatively, when a hard issue is presented, opposite results are observed. Framing effects are insignificant in promoting an ideological issue regardless of a person's political sophistication.     

政府网络舆论危机形成的中国逻辑及其治理——一种基于网民视角的分析

政府网络舆论危机是全球风险社会下中国社会结构紧张长期诱发的结果。处在中国社会急剧变迁中的普通网民,不单是政府网络舆论危机的发动主体,更是中国经验最为直接的感知者,因而,从普通网民视角探求政府网络舆论危机形成的中国逻辑具有合理性。政府网络舆论危机的形成,体现了网民“理性”和“非理性”言论相互交织的特点,在逻辑上具体包括利益表达逻辑、逼迫回应逻辑、群体极化逻辑、抗争动员逻辑以及情感宣泄逻辑等;在治理上,政府及相关部门应坚持利益共享、制度表达、公信修复、信息公开、网络盟友、话语引领及真诚沟通等原则,这才是政府网络舆论危机的标本并治之道。     

Public Opinion and Dynamic Representation in the American States: The Case of Environmental Attitudes*

Objective. We investigate causal processes linking environmental conditions, attitudes, and policies in the American states: Is public opinion about ecology shaped by environmental conditions? Are state policymakers responsive to environmental opinions? Does public opinion respond to policy adoption? Methods. Using public opinion data from the DDB Worldwide Life Style Survey to measure aggregate state attitudes about the environment, as well as measures of water quality and policy intervention, we capture the dynamics of representation in the American states on the environment during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Results. Our findings support a thermostatic model of representation—state environmental opinions are influenced by environmental conditions and are responsive to policy outputs alongside improved environmental conditions. Conclusions. This model of the opinion‐policy linkage refines our understanding of representation and focuses us not just on the passage of public policy to address public desires, but the effectiveness of that policy as well.     

危机应对的经济学原理

20 0 3年发生的“非典”疫情 ,引发了人们对危机应对机制的进一步思考。本文阐述了应对危机的经济学原理 ,并分析了三方面的问题 :危机的不确定性与应对危机的信息机制 ;及时采取公共卫生政策 ,提供公共物品 ;根据危机的不同性质和特点 ,及时采取相应的经济政策以稳定局势。     

The behavioral study of political ideology and public policy formulation

Political ideology is related to public policy formulation in a scholarly and systematic manner with surprising rarity. This article describes the use of newspaper and journal of opinion editorials as barometers of ideological content and signed digraphs as devices for hypothesis formulation regarding ideological change. Policy formulation for incomes policies in the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon administrations and abortion from the 1930s to the present are used to illustrate the utility of these approaches.     

The development of policy on international student welfare and the question of crisis response

The global market in international education has grown almost without interruption over several decades. Increases in international student enrolments in Australia have been among the most impressive in the world, though they declined between 2010 and 2013. The decline was attributable to exchange rate movements and changes to student visa regulations, though an additional factor lay in reputational fallout from a series of violent physical attacks on Indian students, mostly in 2009. In response, Australian federal and State governments undertook diplomatic trips to India, established a raft of public inquiries to investigate the broader question of international student welfare, and made policy changes. Utilising the literature on public policy “crises”, this paper presents government responses to the 2010–2013 downturn in terms of managing a “long‐shadow crisis” (Boin et al., The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership Under Pressure; Cambrtidge University Press, 2005), which typically emerges quickly but has major political consequences, is only seen to be resolved incrementally, and calls for policy change rather than fine‐tuning in response. The adequacy of the policy response to the crisis is not discussed. The article suggests that the crisis and the response acted to elevate the status of international education as an area of policy in general, though not as a mainstream area of social policy.     

Debating New Zealand’s foreign relations: the role and impact of the University of Otago Foreign Policy School 1966–1976

For over half a century, the internationally recognised University of Otago Foreign Policy School has annually drawn together a mix of government officials, diplomats, academics, students and members of the general public to discuss issues of international significance. This article considers the establishment of the Foreign Policy School, and analyses its impact on the formulation and implementation of foreign policy between 1966 and 1976. Michelle Hale Williams’ conceptual model is employed to assess the School’s influence on public and political debate. It is argued the School’s influence was directly and most clearly evident at what Williams defines as the agendas and institutional levels. There was a gradual but definite shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy outlook between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, which is reflected in questions raised and discussed by the School. Public engagement with foreign policy questions, in which the School played an enabling role, was also transformed in the course of this period. The School rapidly became an important forum for foreign policy discussions between groups that had previously had little interaction. This article shows that, while it generated few concrete results at the level of policy, the School certainly played a part in helping to foster a national world-view that was increasingly based on New Zealand values and interests, paving the way for the emergence of a more independent foreign policy.     

Economic crisis and social policy reform in Korea

The economic crisis that broke out in Korea in December 1997 has had a chilling impact on social development in the country. Today unemployment is the highest that Korea has experienced in the past thirty years. This paper aims to examine the impact of the economic crisis on social development and the role of public policy to mitigate the problems caused by the crisis. The economic crisis has hit vulnerable groups harder, increased the proportion of part-time and daily workers, and reversed the trend of steady improvement of income distribution. The economic crisis along with the trend of aging population, globalization, and competition calls for an expanded role of social policy, which the Korean government has neglected for a long time. The main targets of social policy reform in Korea include the expansion of government programs and safety nets for the unemployed and redesigning the national pension and health insurance scheme to provide adequate income security as well as to improve the system sustainability.     

Food, Social Policy and the Environment: Towards a New Model

Food policy is high on the public policy agenda, but still suffers from a lack of overview and integration. The paper reviews examples of policy limitations where tighter and more explicit links could usefully be made between environmental, social and public health considerations. The paper proposes a new ecological health approach to public policy. This offers marked advantages over the present "productionist" approach to food policy. With this old policy regime in crisis, the paper reviews current moves towards adoption of the ecological health model in Britain, Europe and globally.     

Changing policy,changing attitudes? Public opinion on employment relations in New Zealand, 1990–2008

Abstract

Did significant policy shifts in employment relations in the 1990s lead to equally large changes in the attitudes of New Zealanders towards employment relations? Have policy modifications made since 1999 further shaped public perceptions? This paper explores the role of policy feedback in influencing public opinion towards employers and unions and towards government responsibility for jobs and wages. Using data from New Zealand public opinion surveys, most notably the New Zealand Election Study (1990–2008), the paper finds some evidence that policy feedback has occurred in the employment relations arena, but the impact is not as strong or consistent as we might expect. As such, New Zealanders do not completely endorse the ‘there is no alternative’ arguments of neoliberalism, but they do not have an overwhelming desire to return to Keynesian demand-management employment policies.     

Informing Debate or Fuelling Dispute? Media Communication of Reconfiguration in Scotland's Rural Maternity Care

Public reaction to the UK's ongoing health sector reform often results in dilution of policy‐makers’ goals. Public participation in health service decision‐making is advocated in policy, but precisely how to do it and what role public opinion should have in formulating reform strategy is ambiguously described. Public opinion is formed through many influences, including media reporting. This paper examines how reconfiguration at a rural maternity unit at Caithness General Hospital in Wick, Scotland, was communicated in national and local media and considers potential implications of media communication on public participation in policy decision‐making. Content analysis of arguments for and against change revealed a high level of reporting of commentators against change in regional newspapers. Qualitative analysis identified emergent themes about how maternity service reconfiguration was portrayed. These included framing opposition between management and local people, and change drivers receiving superficial coverage. Findings suggest that media portrayal of the public role in change may promote an adversarial rather than a participative stance. More finely tuned understanding of the relationship between the reporting of change and public reaction should be attained as this could affect how planned social policy evolves into actual practice.     

Race, racial resentment, attentiveness to the news media, and public opinion toward the Jena Six

Objective. We outline the role of race, racial resentment, and attentiveness to news in structuring public opinion toward the prosecution of the Jena Six, the name given to six African-American high school students who beat a white student, five of whom were subsequently charged with attempted second-degree murder.Method. We rely on a telephone survey of 428 registered voters collected in the aftermath of the protests in Jena, Louisiana.Results. Public reactions were heavily filtered by race and associated with measures of racial resentment. African Americans followed news about the protests more closely, believed race was the most important consideration in the decision to prosecute, and believed the decision to prosecute was the wrong decision. Racially conservative white respondents were less likely to believe race was the most important consideration in the decision to prosecute and were more likely to believe that the decision to prosecute was the right decision. Consistent with theories of agenda setting and framing, attentiveness to the news influenced perceptions regarding the importance of race in the decision to prosecute but not whether the decision was the right decision.Conclusions. At least within the context of the Deep South, race and racial attitudes continue to be an important predictor of public reactions to racially charged events. Attentiveness to the news influenced the lens through which events were interpreted, but not perceptions of whether the outcome was the right decision.     

Pulpits Versus Ivory Towers: Socializing Agents and Evolution Attitudes*

Objective. Although debate concerning the theory of evolution is part of an ongoing U.S. dialogue over the proper role of religion in society, academics have provided little in the way of systematic understanding of public opinion on this issue. Important questions, such as the relative influence of socializing agents—religion and education—in shaping attitudes on evolution remain unanswered. Building on socialization and cognitive accessibility theories, we offer a framework for predicting public opinion on human origins and the teaching of evolution in public schools. Methods. We model attitudes on evolution and related policy through analysis of data from a 2005 national survey of U.S. adults. Results. Our analysis suggests that religion and education are key predictors of opinion, but that gender, partisanship, and ideology also play an important role. Conclusion. The socializing agent of religion outweighs the effect of education on attitudes related to evolution.     

AUSTRALIAN ATTITUDES TO UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE

Social security policy towards unemployed people in Australia has become increasingly conditional on their demonstrating ever greater job search effort. The evidence from attitudinal survey data on whether this policy shift accords with public opinion is ambiguous. Although, by international standards, Australians take a relatively hard line on the responsibilities of unemployed people lo actively seek work, there is little information about views on the detail of activity testing. While a majority oppose greater public expenditure on unemployment, they still see an important role, for government in addressing unemployment and supporting unemployed people.     

Radical change or more of the same? Public attitudes towards social citizenship in New Zealand since neoliberal reform

International empirical evidence, including that from Australia, suggests that neoliberal reform has not changed public attitudes towards the social rights of citizenship as much as one might predict. But do these international findings hold true for New Zealand, whose institutions were more rapidly transformed by neoliberal reform than similar countries? Drawing upon public opinion data regarding economic protectionism and the welfare state over the past two decades, this paper argues that while some significant changes have emerged there is no overwhelming evidence of a paradigmatic shift in public attitudes towards social citizenship rights as a result of New Zealand's neoliberal reform. Indeed, New Zealand's experience appears as ambiguous and ambivalent as that of Australia, albeit different policy and historical settings have produced some differences in public attitudes.     

南宁受美国金融危机的影响及对策

由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,引起世界的金融动荡不安,让世界经济走向低迷,对我国经济产生很大影响,南宁市也受到一定程度的影响。面对这一形势,南宁市应采取积极参与泛北部湾经济合作、扩大内需、推动企业科技创新、加强舆论引导、刺激消费等合理可行的对策。