The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso

Using event history analyses, we investigate the impact of rainfall conditions — a crucial environmental factor in the livelihood of Sahelian households— on the risk of the first village departure in Burkina Faso. The distinction of migrations by destination and duration proves critical in studying this relationship. Findings suggest that people from the drier regions are more likely than those from wetter areas to engage in both temporary and permanent migrations to other rural areas. Also, short-term rainfall deficits tend to increase the risk of long-term migration to rural areas and decrease the risk of short-term moves to distant destinations.     

Climate,migration, and the local food security context: introducing Terra Populus

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population–environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate–migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments.     

The use of survey data to study migration–environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection

Growing interest in the environmental aspects of migration is not matched by research on their interrelationships, due partly to the lack of adequate data sets on the two together. Focusing on the microlevel, we describe the data required to effectively investigate these interrelationships. Data sources are discussed, including information that should be collected, focusing on household surveys and remote sensing. The main section of the paper describes three alternative approaches to data collection: (a) using existing population and environmental data from different sources, illustrated by Burkina Faso; (b) adding questions to a survey developed for another purpose, illustrated for Guatemala using a DHS survey; and (c) designing a new survey specifically to collect both migration and environmental data to investigate interrelationships, illustrated by Ecuador. Methods used and summary findings are described, followed by a discussion of their advantages and limitations. We conclude with recommendations as to effective use of each approach as research on migration?Cenvironment linkages moves forward.     

Rainfall variations and child mortality in the Sahel: results from a comparative event history analysis in Burkina Faso and Mali

Over the last 40 years, the Sahel has seen a long-term downward trend in rainfall. The importance of ecological variables as factors affecting child survival in rural subsistence societies has already been emphasized, but little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this. This paper presents a comparative event history analysis aimed at understanding how rainfall variations may influence child mortality in two neighbouring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries are similar in terms of population dynamics, economy, livelihood, child mortality and rainfall conditions (i.e. strong south–north decreasing rainfall gradient). Individual data for both countries came from two detailed nationally representative retrospective surveys conducted in 2000. Rainfall data for the 1960–1998 time period were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit. This study shows that child survival in each country is related to specific patterns of rainfall variation across livelihood regions, highlighting the complex nature of environmental causality of child mortality.     

Agrarian structure and social organization in a risk-prone environment: A comparison of the Birifor,Dagara, and the Lobi people of Burkina Faso

Differences in spatial organization among the Lobi, Birifor, and Dagara communities in Burkina Faso can be argued to account for differential risk for onchocerciasis in these populations. A logistic regression analysis suggests that the pattern of land use and a number of related factors contribute to the risk of differential microfilarial load. It appears that the unique agrarian structures of the Birifor and Dagara communities represent a successful social adaptation to the threat of the blackfly disease, and that adoption of the forms of spatial organization found in the Birifor and Dagara communities by regional governments could aid in controlling the blackfly more permanently.     

Men’s condom use in higher-risk sex: Trends in five sub-Saharan African countries

This paper analyses trends in men’s condom use at last higher-risk sex (i.e., with a non-marital, non-cohabiting partner) using the two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in five sub-Saharan African countries: Cameroon, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and Burkina Faso. Condom use is an important method of preventing HIV transmission. Encouragingly, higher-risk sex has declined in four of the five countries, while condom use rose substantially in Cameroon, Tanzania and Burkina Faso but only had a minor increase in Kenya and Zambia, where use at last higher-risk sex remains below 50 per cent. There are no clear patterns of change across countries in the predictive strength of the explanatory variables between the two most recent surveys, although evidence of a widening gap in use by education in Cameroon is identified. In each country, lack of education remains a strong barrier to condom use in higher-risk sex.     

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries

Research has demonstrated that, in a variety of settings, environmental factors influence migration. Yet much of the existing work examines objective indicators of environmental conditions as opposed to the environmental perceptions of potential migrants. This paper examines migration decision-making and individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual environmental events) with a focus on five developing countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua, and Peru. The survey data include both migrants and non-migrants, with the results suggesting that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase movement. These findings substantially improve our understanding of perceptions as related to internal migration and also suggest that a more differentiated perspective is needed on environmental migration as a form of adaptation.     

环境退化地区家庭人口对土地利用的影响研究——以中国西北毛乌素沙地为例

微观层面模型对于区分不同的人口群体以更好地明确环境退化的责任主体及其原因具有重要价值,对不同的土地利用方式进行经济区分是联接家庭人口特征与土地覆盖结果的重要手段。基于扩展的恰亚诺夫理论框架,文章利用2007—2008年两次调查所获293个农户样本数据,采用OLS和logit多变量模型实证分析毛乌素沙地家庭人口和其他因素对土地利用的影响。研究结果表明:(1)家庭人口因素对毛乌素沙地农户的土地利用产生重要影响;(2)毛乌素沙地主要土地利用的环境影响也遵循家庭生命周期的过程;(3)毛乌素沙地农户在减少有助于土壤修复利用活动的同时面临上升的退化风险。     

Norms and Behaviour in Burkinabe Fertility

In this paper a combination of methods is used to investigate the determinants of birth-interval length in a single city in Burkina Faso. First, a multi-round survey provided accurate measurement of dates of reproductive events. Secondly, open-ended interviews with a sub-sample of women from the survey were tape-recorded and transcribed. In order to disentangle the direct and indirect biological and behavioural determinants of birth-interval length, seven series of hazards models were estimated. These results were compared with women's perceptions of the same relationships revealed in the in-depth interviews. The lesson we draw is that no single data-collection strategy can provide answers to all questions of interest. The multi-round survey provides accurate information on actual behaviour, but at great cost. The in-depth interviews enable the investigator to study norms and motivations, but this method is impractical for data collection for a large representative sample. Combining the two strategies can yield insights that may enhance the effectiveness of programme interventions.     

Neighborhood Social Change and Perceptions of Environmental Degradation

This paper investigates how changes in neighborhood facilities—new schools, health posts, bus services, mills, dairies, agricultural cooperatives, and other facilities—influence perceptions of environmental degradation. We use three types of data from a rural area in Nepal: (1) data on changing neighborhood facilities from 171 neighborhoods, collected using ethnographic, survey, and archival methods; (2) survey data on household characteristics and environmental perceptions from 1,651 households; and (3) individual-level survey data. We find that new neighborhood facilities are associated with perceptions of environmental degradation. This is important because perceptions may indicate objective environmental degradation, encourage participation in programs to improve the environmental, and influence environmental behavior.     

Land and leña: linking transnational migration, natural resources, and the environment in Guatemala

This article examines the relationships between international migration, natural resources, and the environment. Rather than looking at environmental change as a cause of population movements, the article reveals how migration affects the environment in sending countries. Empirically, we rely on a case study in Guatemala. Although migrants and cash remittances make significant contributions to Guatemala’s changing economy, little is known about the relationships between migration and the environment in this Central American country—a country, which continues to have a large rural population and that relies heavily on its natural resources. Drawing on ethnographic research and household surveys in a Maya community, we reveal how migrants and their earnings, as well as their ideas, behavior and attitudes, affect land use, land cover, and firewood use. We reveal, for example, how in addition to investments in land for home building and pick-up trucks to help improve agricultural production, some migrant households purchase more land and often dedicate it to the cultivation of vegetable crops for local and foreign markets. Cultural practices and beliefs directly linked to land and the environment, particularly maize cultivation, also alter due to migration processes. And, despite the ability of migrant households to transition to more efficient fuels like liquid propane gas (LPG), we show how they continue to use firewood. In all, the study contributes important insights into the environmental implications of migration.     

Structure and agency in development-induced forced migration: the case of Brazil’s Belo Monte Dam

This paper examines how structure and agency interact to shape forced migration outcomes. Specifically, I ask how structural factors such as compensation policies as well as social, financial, and human capital may either foster or constrain migration aspirations and capabilities. I use longitudinal, semi-structured interview data to study forced migration among farmers displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Results from baseline interviews indicate that nearly all community members aspired to purchase rural land in the region and maintain livelihoods as cacao farmers or cattle ranchers. Constraints limiting the ability to attain aspirations included strict requirements on land titles for properties, delays in receiving compensation, rising land prices, and the lack of power to negotiate for better compensation. Despite these constraints, most migrants succeeded in attaining aspirations, as they were able to mobilize resources such as social networks, financial capital, skills, and knowledge. These findings highlight the importance of considering the relationship between structure and agency within forced migration research. I conclude by discussing how the findings may inform resettlement policies for future cases of development- or environment-induced forced migration.     

Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.     

Erratum to: Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which point to the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Rural out-migration and resource-dependent communities in Mexico and India

Resource regimes are complex social–ecological systems that operate at multiple levels. Using data from two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India), this paper looks at the susceptibility and response of such regimes to rural out-migration. As a driver of demographic and cultural change, out-migration impacts both the practices and institutional arrangements that define territorial resource use and management. The research shows that critical yet poorly recognised shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level. From an environmental perspective, the research adds to the body of work examining the impacts of rural depopulation on land and seascapes and associated biological diversity. We question the assumption that rural–urban migration necessarily simulates ecosystem recovery and aids conservation. This finding is timely as funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.     

Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.     

Exploring the influence of precipitation on fertility timing in rural Mexico

The influence of environmental conditions on fertility decision-making is becoming increasingly important in the context of contemporary climate change. Deforestation, land availability, and environmental quality may shape decisions regarding family size, particularly in regions with high levels of natural resource dependence. This research examines the relationship between fertility timing and precipitation in rural Mexico by linking household event-history data to municipal-level precipitation measures. Even after controlling for other factors that impact fertility, in historically dry areas, households are more likely to have a child following above average precipitation, using both 1-year and 2-year prior precipitation measures. Conversely, the relationship between precipitation and fertility timing in humid areas of rural Mexico is not statistically significant. Overall, the findings reveal that the fertility-environment connection is highly context-specific and differs across climate zones in Mexico, but that fertility timing is associated with recent rainfall patterns for households in dry areas of rural Mexico.     

Sero‐Discordant Couples in Five African Countries: Implications for Prevention Strategies

Most analyses of the determinants of HIV infection are performed at the individual level. The recent Demographic and Health Surveys, which include results from HIV tests, allow the study of HIV infection at the level of the cohabiting couple. This article exploits this feature of the data for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania. The analysis yields two findings about the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that have important implications for policy. First, at least two‐thirds of the infected couples are sero‐discordant, that is, only one of the two partners is infected. This implies scope for prevention efforts among infected couples. Second, among 30–40 percent of the infected couples only the woman is infected. This is at odds with levels of self‐reported extramarital sex by women and with the common perception that unfaithful men are the main link between high‐risk groups and the general population. These findings are confirmed by tests of robustness. These results indicate that extramarital sexual activity among women in union is a substantial source of vulnerability to HIV that should be, as much as male extramarital activity, targeted by prevention efforts.