The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso

Using event history analyses, we investigate the impact of rainfall conditions — a crucial environmental factor in the livelihood of Sahelian households— on the risk of the first village departure in Burkina Faso. The distinction of migrations by destination and duration proves critical in studying this relationship. Findings suggest that people from the drier regions are more likely than those from wetter areas to engage in both temporary and permanent migrations to other rural areas. Also, short-term rainfall deficits tend to increase the risk of long-term migration to rural areas and decrease the risk of short-term moves to distant destinations.     

西方国家环境难民的争议与弥合路径解读

在环境变化与人口迁移的研究中,环境难民这一概念饱受争议。争议的焦点主要集中在迁移动因的识别、是否存在环境难民、环境难民能否纳入难民的范畴三个方面。导致环境难民概念分歧的原因在于移民跨学科研究进展缓慢和不同的利益相关者从自身的角度对环境难民进行建构。为了弥合环境难民存在的争议,学者采取了将环境变化引起的跨国被迫迁移人口视为环境难民;根据移民动机和救援紧迫性识别环境难民;采取“自愿—强制”二分法将环境难民纳入非自愿移民的范畴;维持现状与加强合作等四条路径。本文结合我国环境相关移民实践认为：扩大环境难民的范畴不利于问题的解决。环境难民不能囊括那些既定类型和约定俗成的移民类型;不能将非自愿移民等同于难民;概念界定本身无法解决身份识别。在实践中,需要从环境变化的影响识别需要救援的迁移人口;以集体身份划定环境难民范畴;履行政府的职责,最大程度上较少跨国环境难民;对不同环境变化影响的人口采取不同的迁移手段;整合资源进行合作以更好地安置移民。     

A Panel Based Analysis of the Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Other Individual Level Characteristics at Leaving on Returning

Individual level differentials between migrants and nonmigrants are examined to ascertain the likelihood of return migration to a prior residence based on characteristics at the time of departure from place of origin. Analysis focuses on comparisons of Hispanics, blacks and whites, examining the odds of return migration by education, employment status, marital status, home ownership, length of residence, gender, age, and migration interval. The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) is utilized to identify 13,798 preliminary migrations that may be followed by at least one return migration. Findings indicate a sharp decline in propensity to return migrate as length of absence from origin increases. Regardless of length of time since the preliminary migration, both blacks and Hispanics are more likely to return migrate than are whites. Individuals who resided at place of origin for longer periods before leaving had strikingly higher odds for return migration.     

基于人口迁流特征的环洞庭湖区县域城镇化的类型分析

改革开放以来,我国人口迁流带有明显异地城镇化的性质,这种跨大区域的异地城镇化对人口移人区和人口移出区的影响是不同的。文章以环洞庭湖区为例,在第六次人口普查县域资料的基础上,定量分析了人口净移出区县域人口净移出率与城镇化率之间的空间关系：按县域人口内移指数——城镇人口净移入与农村人口净移出之间的比例关系,将本区城镇化划分为主动型城镇化、内移为主的被动型城镇化、外移为主的被动型城镇化和衰退型城镇等类型;并探讨了各类城镇化的人口迁流特征、动力机制和综合效益：在此基础上,提出了环洞庭湖区合理推进城镇化的对策。     

农村劳动力流动对缓解贫困的实证分析

本文利用对甘肃省国家扶贫开发重点县六个样本村的调查资料。在总结贫困地区致贫基本原因的基础上,运用Probit模型,研究了劳动力流动及其相关因素对缓解农村贫困的作用。研究结果表明,家庭劳动力数量、外出劳动力数量、流动者年龄及受教育程度、流动时间的长短、流动的稳定性、流动区域等因素对缓解家庭贫困具有十分积极的作用,外出打工已成为农村缓解贫困的主要途径。     

Environmental Migration and Sustainable Development in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

This paper explores the demographic impacts of the implementation of the Grand Development in West China policies and environmental rehabilitation projects in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It analyses the interaction between the environmental reconstruction and environment-related migration in this region. The intertwined nature of environmental, ethnic, and poverty problems not only bears negatively upon the alleviation of poverty conducing to the accruement of wealth of the poverty-stricken population, but also hinders the rehabilitation of the environment. It brings forth some opinions regarding improving the capacity of regional sustainable development through environmental migration.