低生育水平下我国生育率转变影响机制的地区差异——来自90年代省级面板数据的经验研究

本文利用我国1990—2000年各地区总和生育率、社会经济发展水平和计划生育执行力度的面板数据,分别对东部特大城市、东部地区、中部地区和西部地区进行了实证分析。发现：计划生育政策对各地区生育率的降低都起到了重要的作用;同时,东部地区（包括特大城市）较高的经济、社会发展水平显著的降低了总和生育率,而经济较为落后的中、西部地区,这种作用不明显。     

浙江省人口老龄化与计划生育关系的研究

浙江省的人口年龄结构已成为典型的老年型人口 ,人口老龄化程度在全国处于领先水平。未来老年人正向中、高龄发展 ,老龄化速度快。老龄化程度在城乡及地区间分布不平衡 ,老龄化超前于社会经济发展水平 ,生育率下降是导致人口老龄化的主要因素。在 1970— 1990年实行计划生育的 2 0年里 ,生育率的迅速下降是人口年龄构成变化的主导因素。对未来人口年龄结构影响最大的是年龄构成的作用并使人口年龄结构老化。生育率降得越低越好是一个观念误区 ,而应把优化人口结构和控制人口总量放在同等重要位置     

中国生育率下降中的扩散效应:基于省级时序数据的研究

本文使用1950～2000年中国28个省的时序数据,分析了中国省级空间和时间生育率下降的扩散效应。分析结果表明,中国生育率下降中存在着扩散效应。空间扩散分析显示,持续的下降始于少数大城市和一些东部省份,随之是北部省份,而广大的西北和一些南部地区生育率转变较晚;时间扩散分析结果表明,省内生育率下降显示出比省间生育率变化更为明显的扩散效应,并且不同时期生育率下降的影响因素不同。扩散因素独立于社会经济因素,其促进和加强了社会经济和计划生育因素对中国生育率下降的影响。     

1990年代中国生育水平研究

1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少,这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据,来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报,最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整,重构2000年普查0~9岁人口的年龄性别结构;并将2000年0~9岁人口转换为1991~2000年历年的出生人数,进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看,我国1991年生育率达到更替水平,之后进一步下降,低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1.7~1.8。     

应用队列累计生育率分析我国生育水平变动趋势——兼与郭志刚教授讨论

本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。     

中国生育率的地区差异分析

一、研究背景和目的 在过去的几十年中,特别是在70年代,中国经历了急剧的生育率下降。总和生育率从60年代末的6左右下降到1981年的2.6,到1990年又进一步下降到2.3。这样迅速的生育率转变引起了国内外人口学界的广泛关注,一度成为研究的热门题目。没有人会怀疑中国政府推行的计划生育对降低生育率起了重要作用,问题是中国的社会经济发展是否对生育率的转变也起了促进作用。由于可获得的资料的限制,早期的研究大都限于全国水平的分析,并普遍将生育率下降归功于计划生育政策。这类研究没有涉及中国生育率的地区差异,而正是这些生育率的差异,仅用计划生育政策是难以完全解释的。     

中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

中国各地区妇女生育水平差异的社会经济影响因素分析——兼对1990-2000年期间各地区生育水平下降因素考察

本研究构造了人口流动强度和城镇化指数分布法对全国漏报的538万多0岁人口进行地区(省、直辖市、自治区)分配,将漏报出生回填后,估计并以之得到各地区2000年妇女总和生育率.在此基础上对总和生育率与社会经济发展和生育政策的关系进行定量分析.结果发现,各地区妇女总和生育率的差异一方面来自政策水平的差异,另一方面社会经济发展水平对这一差异有着显著的影响.同时,20世纪90年代以来各地区妇女生育率下降的决定因素也是来自这两个方面,社会经济发展的作用略大于政策的外生作用.     

计划生育政策的人口效应

文章试图估计计划生育政策使我国少生了多少人。利用1980~2008年世界140多个国家的数据来模拟在没有计划生育政策影响下经济社会变量与人口变量的相关关系,并据此对中国无计划生育条件下的总和生育率进行测算。将测算出来的无计划生育条件下的总和生育率和中国实际总和生育率分别代入模型进行人口模拟,比较无计划生育条件下和现实条件下人口增长的不同过程和结果。研究表明:无计划生育条件下,我国2008年生育率水平的预测值大概在2.5左右。1972~2008年间,排除经济社会发展的影响,单纯由于计划生育的作用,中国少生了4.58亿人。     

甘肃省县级社会经济发展、计划生育与生育率变化的关系

中外学者已对中国省级社会经济发展、计划生育与生育率变化的关系进行了系统地论述。其研究成果表明,在中国29个省、市、自治区中,社会经济发展和计划生育对生育率变化有正相关关系,社会经济发展水平高,计划生育工作成绩越好的省市,其生育率水平越低。那么,这一模式是否也适应某一省的具体情况呢? 引用社会经济指标(来源于《中国人口地图集》)和计划生育资料(甘肃省计划生育委员会),本文将以世界著名的社会经济发展——计划生育——生育率模式为理论基础,系     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

影响朝鲜族生育水平的因素分析

中国朝鲜族育龄妇女的生育水平迅速下降,其影响因素是多方面的。因子分析的结果表明,计划生育政策和经济社会发展对朝鲜族生育水平的下降起了一定的作用,但是,朝鲜族独特的传统文化起了决定性的作用。     

Japan’s changing fertility mechanisms and its policy responses

This paper discusses Japan’s decline in fertility over the past 50 years. The change in Japan’s postwar fertility is analysed using formal demographic tools such as parity progression ratios and decomposition methods. The analytical results show that before the oil crisis of 1973, the reduction in marital fertility played a dominant role, while the delayed timing of marriage has been a principal factor since the mid-1970s. The delayed timing of first and second births has also played a relatively important role in determining actual fertility levels in the 1990s. The paper examines various socio-economic factors contributing to these demographic shifts over time in postwar Japan. A number of policies and programs implemented over the past decade by the Japanese government to boost fertility are briefly described, together with their limitations.     

Temporal and spatial analysis of fertility decline in Taiwan

Abstract The conventional mode of evaluating the success of family planning programmes has frequently emphasized the activities of the programmes, rather than their ultimate effects. This paper examines the role of family planning programmes in inducing fertility decline in Taiwan. First it presents the secular trends of Taiwanese fertility changes, pointing out that family planning programmes began only after the birth rate had already shown a substantial decline. Secondly, it specifically evaluates the impact of family planning programmes in the Taichung areas, since its success has been widely proclaimed. Finally, it is stipulated that the dynamics of Taiwanese fertility changes may be related to declining infant mortality and accelerating educational development, and that these institutional effects, rather than the family planning programmes, should be credited with changes in fertility.     

影响朝鲜族生育水平的因素分析

中国朝鲜族育龄妇女的生育水平迅速下降,其影响因素是多方面的。因子分析的结果表明,计划生育政策 和经济社会发展对朝鲜族生育水平的下降起了一定的作用,但是,朝鲜族独特的传统文化起了决定性的作用。     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

文化因素对性别偏好的决定作用

中国传统文化中强烈的男孩偏好是导致高出生性别比的根本原因,且急剧的社会经济变革和有效的计划生育政策所导致的低生育率也起到了加剧的作用。国家生育调控导致夫妇在生育孩子数量和性别选择上的冲突,本质上是制度与文化的冲突。传统生育文化的力量是顽强和巨大的,并带有一定程度的继承性和历史滞留性,只有以一种新型生育文化去替代重男轻女、传宗接代的传统生育文化,才能逐渐弱化人们的性别偏好。     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

Approaches to the Fertility Transition in Victorian England

The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality.