Area-based social indicators: Signed chi-square as an alternative to ratios

This paper examines the statistical requirements of area-based social indicators. It argues that on technical and conceptual grounds conventional ratio-measures fall short as indicators for use in area-based programmes of positive discrimination. Ratios quantify only one of the propositions of area-based policies as identified by Holtermann. The signed chi-square measure expresses all three statistical requirements of social indicators simultaneously, particularly when used with constant areal units. It can also consider subjective value-laden issues in the ranking of geographic areas on a good to bad scale. The concepts will be discussed using the 1971 grid square population census data on unemployment in Humberside.     

Social indicators and crime rate forecasting

This paper presents an attempt to use macrodynamic social indicators in a time series analysis of three crime categories-homicide; property and; robbery offenses in Israel. Earlier findings such as the relationship between homicide and unemployment, and density of population and property offenses are confirmed by the analysis. The models that are constructed are used later for forecasting and yield a satisfactory performance of at least two of the crime models.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Dynamic Reflections of Crimes,Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.     

Testing the Comparability of Different Types of Social Indicators Across Groups

The social indicator movement has realized a considerable increase in importance during the last 50 years. This happened not the least by the publications in the journal Social Indicators Research. Social indicators have been developed for many aspects of life. The scores on these indicators often are compared through time and across groups. An essential requirement for such research is that the measures used are comparable through time and across groups. The comparability through time is not such a big problem but the comparability of measures across groups is not so obvious. This requires harmonization of indicators based on objective variables and invariance testing for indicators based on subjective and objective variables. In this paper we discuss how the comparability of different types of social indicators based on subjective and objective variables can be tested using invariance testing. This is a relevant issue because the existing testing procedure is designed for only one type of social indicators and this test is not directly applicable on the other types of social indicators.     

A further consideration of the human aspects of economic readjustment in Hungary

The economic transition to a market economy has not only caused severe economic disruption in the nations of Central and Eastern Europe but also uncertainty among the population. This study presents indicators of the Hungarian population's perceptions and expectations with respect to levels of inflation, unemployment and poverty. A survey of published social and quality of life indicators revealed that the necessary information to carry out this study was not available. Instead, data from a monthly Hungarian Gallup Institute sample poll was obtained and this information was disaggregated by income classification and place of residence to show the differential effect of these factors. The study shows that lower income groups and residents of smaller places are generally more concerned about the future prospects of unemployment and inflation than higher income groups and residents of larger places. Given the level of unemployment, however, which even to June 1992 was relatively low by international standards, a very large proportion of the overall population are concerned about the possibility of becoming unemployed. The volatility of public perceptions toward the variables considered in the study is clearly shown for all classifications by income and residence, many of which would seem to have no logical explanation. In all groupings, pessimism about the future has increased over the period considered.     

Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator

The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures—which ultimately aim to ‘tell a story’, e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus explore whether a composite indicator can be built to tell ‘more than one story’ and test this in practical contexts. These include measures used in convergence analysis in the field of cohesion policies and a recent case involving the World Bank’s Doing Business Index. Our experiments are built to imagine different constituencies and stakeholders who agree on the use of evidence and of statistical information while differing on the interpretation of what is relevant and vital.

     

Unemployment and the homicide rate: A paradox resolved?

The heretofore perplexing relationship between the unemployment and homicide rates is reevaluated through a dynamic, macro social indicator model of the postwar United States. Whereas prior research has failed to demonstrate consistently an empirical connection between economic conditions and crime rates, it is shown here that when attention is given to both the level of unemployment and recent changes in unemployment, the relationship between the unemployment rate and the homicide rate becomes more intelligible. The level of unemployment is negatively related to the homicide rate while annual changes in unemployment are positively related to the homicide rate. These paradoxical effects of unemployment remain even after controlling for other theoretically-relevant variables. Interpretation of the results revolves around the dichotomy of motivation and opportunity as components of human behavior.     

Oecd Social Indicators for 2001: a Critical Appraisal

The OECD social indicators for 2001 were critically reviewed by analysing their interrelationships across all OECD countries during the late 1990s. First, findings were provided covering the underlying structure of subsets of indicators by similarity in content as suggested by the OECD. Second, an analysis of the selected key indicators yielded five social dimensions, which were interpretedas conceptual constructs underlying the set of OECDsocial indicators at the level of the entire OECD area. Third, the relationships of each indicator withthese social dimensions were observed to aid choosing of appropriate indicators for making and evaluating social policies. Fourth, the OECDcountries were ranked according to their overall social welfare, as defined by the OECD social indicators, basedon the scores of the countries on the social dimensions. Fifth, similarities among the OECD countries were examined and it was found that the countries formed six bipolar country dimensions. The findings showed that an easily interpretable structure underlies the OECD social indicators. The paper clarified the use of the OECD social indicators for 2001 as a tool for planning and decision-making and for cross-national analyses of social policies.     

The Development of Official Social Statistics in Italy with a Life Quality Approach

The article covers the main steps of official statistics in the second half of the Nineties through the illustration of the transition from economic oriented official statistics to the quality of life approach. The system of the Multipurpose Surveys introduced in 1993 to give an answer to questions at social level and to provide indicators for social policies, has been developed with a quality of life approach that combines the objective dimension to the subjective one. All dimensions of the social sphere have been analyzed with this approach: health, crime, leisure, work, poverty and deprivation. Sometimes the subjective questions were proxy of the objective situation, such as health and sometimes subjective aspects complemented the objective as in the case of crime and poverty. The history of the Italian official statistics is an example of how it is possible to realize a qualitative leap in social statistics integrating the objective and the subjective dimension.     

Deprivation index for small areas in Spain

The term deprivation is often used to refer to economic or social shortages in a given geographical area. This concept of deprivation has been identified for years using simple indicators such as income level, education and social class. One of the advantages of using simple indicators is the availability of data, since they come directly from sources of information like censuses and population registers. However, the main disadvantage of these indicators is their limited usefulness when measuring a concept as complex as deprivation with a single variable. One possible solution to this problem is using compound indices, made up of a combination of simple indicators. For years, the concept of material deprivation in Spain has been measured using indices or indicators imported from other countries. However, there are no studies that investigate if all of these variables are really related to material deprivation in Spain. In this context, the objective of this study is to create a synthetic index for material deprivation for the municipalities in Spain, bearing in mind the variables available from the Population and Housing Census. The index was built on a principal components factor analysis. The analysis showed two factors. The first factor showed a high positive correlation to the variables relating to illiteracy rate, unemployment rate and percentage of manual labourers, while the second factor was seen as highly positively correlated to the variables relating to the percentage of homes without access to a vehicle and the dependency index and also correlated, though negatively, to the percentage of foreigners between 16 and 49 who lived abroad in 1991. The variables that make up the first factor can be considered to be an approximation of the concept of deprivation in Spain. This study proposes a deprivation index made up of three simple indicators available from national information sources: percentage of illiteracy, percentage of unemployment and percentage of manual labourers. With this index, the criteria for measuring deprivation in Spanish municipalities can be unified and a comparison of the results of the different studies in our context facilitated.     

A New Perspective on Violent Crime Burden Index: Evidence from Indian Districts

Given limited resource availability in a developing nation like India, faced with high incidences of crime, it is important to optimize on the resources spent in combating crime by channelling them to proper direction. This requires an understanding of the actual and overall level of crime across India. Our paper provides a complete understanding of the various indicators of violent crime and the determinants of these crimes in India using district level data for three census years, namely, 1981, 1991 and 2001. We construct three alternative crime-burden indices. Including a variable like voter turnout in state election at the district level, we document significant impact of public awareness to reduce and combat crime. The constructed crime burden index shows that states located in northern parts of India have more incidences of crime compared to states in the south. We also find that our estimated crime-burden indices tend to report in general a higher level of crime-burden than the average based index. This suggests controlling for the factors beyond population while constructing the aggregate crime-burden index for any country is essential. Our work although is limited to the Indian data, we however, believe that this can be easily applied to various other countries.     

Social factors as predictors of internal migration patterns in Israel

The influence of 1975 crime and poverty-dependence factor scores on 1976–1980 internal migration rates in Israel was studied. Lag correlations between the two factor scores and in and out migration revealed that poverty-dependence was strongly and negatively related to in-migration and moderately and negatively related to out-migration. No relationship was found between crime and in-migration over the five year period, but a strong positive relationship was indicated between crime and outmigration. It was thus shown that social indicators such as crime and poverty-dependence revealed lasting effects on migration rates, and may be an aid to social planners.     

Crimes and socio-economic environments

The purpose of this note is to study the relationship between crimes and the socio-economic environment in the metropolitan areas of the United States. In this study we define total crime rate per 100,000 population as a linear function of (i) per capita personal income, (ii) the unemployment rate (iii) the migration rate, (iv) racial imbalance, (v) climate, and (vi) males as a percentage of total population. Our statistical results confirm the hypothesis that social and economic conditions cause crime.     

Effective International Tourism Management: A Strategic Approach

The objective of the study was to explore the relationship between international tourism indicators, crime rate, and vulnerability in a panel of 16 tourist-oriented countries over the period of 1990–2014. The study constructed a vulnerability index by using three socioeconomic factors, (1) poverty, (2) income inequality, and (3) unemployment rate. The results show that crime rate and vulnerability both decreases international tourism demand, which were mediated through inadequate education and health resources. Trade openness moderately supported the international tourism demand under the crime rate and vulnerability index. The results confirmed the crime Kuznets curve that turned into inverted U-shaped relationship between crime rate and per capita income, while this relationship was not confirmed for vulnerability index. The panel causality relationships confirmed the unidirectional causality between crime-vulnerability and international tourism. Growth-fueled tourism demand was analyzed under a crime and vulnerability index. The study concludes that international tourism is an implied solution to reduce human costs by involving tourists to in pleasure activities to at tourists’ destinations.     

Some neglected social indicators

The attention now being given in the social sciences to time series indicators that measure the ‘Social Health’ of the nation is a most welcome development. Too often, sweeping claims of social change have very little hard supporting evidence. The new trend indicators offer the opportunity for more rigorous analysis of diverse subjects than is often employed in the ‘soft sciences’. Public opinion indicators show a decline in favor for U.S. business which has resulted in Congressional legislation of business, labor reform, restrictions on the environment, consumerism, and inflation. More restrictions can be expected if the social indicators are correct. Political indicators tell us that Republican party loyalty and allegiance have steadily declined since the 1950s and perhaps the ‘emerging Republican majority’ is merely a myth. There are vast implications to be derived from indicators that show the birth rate nearing zero population growth; religion steadily losing influence in America over the past 30 years; and, the youth are far more sober than the rebellious few who draw mass media attention. Social indicators have been very predictive of the future but largely ignored. A clearinghouse is needed to systematically monitor existing social indicators to avoid waste, duplication and downright reglect of important information.     

我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率关系研究——基于误差修正模型的分析

失业是市场经济条件下不可避免的社会风险。失业保险是解决失业所产生的不利因素的社会机制,对一国的社会保障和福利水平有重要的作用。本文通过建立误差修正模型,对我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率的相互关系进行研究。我国失业保险与城镇失业率之间存在着双向格兰杰因果关系,即失业保险支出的增加会导致城镇失业率的增加,城镇失业率的增加会引起失业保险支出的增加。另外,我国失业保险支出的变动对城镇失业率的影响是正激励与负激励并存。     

CONSTRUCTING A HEALTH AND SOCIAL INDICATOR FRAMEWORK FOR INDIGENOUS COMMUNITY HEALTH RESEARCH

Health and social indicators that capture the distinct historical, social, and cultural contexts of Indigenous communities can play an important role in informing the planning and delivery of community interventions. There is currently considerable interest in cataloguing and vetting meaningful community-level health and social indicators that could be applied to research and health promotion activities in Indigenous communities in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, inclusive of conventional indicators as well as measures developed specifically for use in or with Indigenous communities. To avoid haphazard selection of indicators, and to assure the comprehensiveness and relevance of any given set of indicators, a framework that can accommodate and conceptually classify indicators representing a full range of domains is required. We report here on the development of a conceptual framework, by which Indigenous community indicators, and more general community-level social indicators, can be sorted, catalogued, and systematically classified within four hierarchical levels. The indicator framework was developed across Canada, Australia and New Zealand in consultation with academic researchers and Indigenous community stakeholders, building from established health and social indicator systems. The Indigenous indicator framework permits Indigenous communities, public health researchers, and funding agencies to compare and select the most appropriate indicators for application in specific contexts from the multitude of existing indicators.     

Country-Level Investment in Cultural Opportunity Structures. A Potential Source of Health Differences Between 21 European Countries

Individual’s participation in cultural activities may positively affect health through a pathway mediated by social capital. We examine whether country-level investment in cultural opportunity structures was associated with between-country differences in self-rated health and, if so, whether these associations were mediated by citizens’ confidence in societal institutions, i.e., by institutional trust, regarded as a dimension of social capital. For 24,887 respondents in the European Social Survey, 2006, data on self-rated health, institutional trust (individual-level and country-level), and sociodemographic variables were linked with statistics-based country-level data on 10 indicators of cultural opportunity structures and mediator variables (gross domestic product (GDP), Gini index, and welfare state regime). Over and above the sociodemographics, six cultural indicators contributed to between-country health differences in logistic multilevel regression analysis: the percentage of arts students, the RC index, the percentage of writers and creative artists of total employment, exports of cultural goods, imports of cultural goods, and the number of feature films produced per capita. Controlling, furthermore, for trust, and country-level mediators, only imports of cultural goods contributed to between-country differences in health. No associations with other cultural indicators remained after controlling for GDP or welfare state regime. Institutional trust may partially mediate the significance of cultural investments for self-rated health. However, both cultural investment and trust may be concomitants of general prosperity and welfare policies. Future studies should investigate whether the countries’ welfare policies influence the transformation of cultural investment into institutional trust and which types of indicators best depict associations between investments and health.     

Walking a well-being tightrope: young people in Australia

The economic and social contribution young people make to society is increasingly important as the population ages. Yet a substantial number of young people face economic and social challenges that have an impact on their current and future well-being. Independent indicators are often used to describe what we know about how young people are faring, but these fail to show how young people are doing holistically, across their whole life. If we are to better understand and improve young people??s well-being and their lives more generally, it is critical that research establishes the connections and interactions between life domains. This paper uses a well-being framework and secondary analysis of national statistics to begin to understand how young people are faring when we cross economic outcomes with other social indicators. It argues that some Australian young people fare poorly across a large number of other social indicators and thus may be walking a tightrope in regard to their well-being and well-becoming. This paper also aims to generate a dialogue about using a well-being framework for future research with and about young people.