Regional disparities in Indonesia: A social indicators approach

The paper examines the nature of regional imbalance in Indonesia by using a number of social indicators. Several disaggregated social indices are constructed with the help of a taxonomic technique. For the purpose of comparison, an overall economic index is also constructed. It is observed that the ranking of provinces differ substantially across the indices, implying that there is no causal relationship between the selected social and economic indicators. Regional disparities declined in the past decade in terms of all social indices except the demographic index. Economic inequality nowever increased between 1970 and 1980.     

A regression approach to estimating the average number of persons per household

In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regression models in which PPH estimates were based on symptomatic indicators of PPH change. We tested these estimates using county-level data in four states and found them to be more precise and less biased than estimates based on more commonly used methods.     

A census-based method for estimating adult mortality

Abstract A simple method is presented for converting an age distribution in any closed population into the stationary population corresponding to its current mortality conditions. The conversion only requires a set of age-specific growth rates, which will normally be available from successive censuses. From the stationary population, any life table mortality measure of interest can be computed. The index most robust to normal data errors in developing countries is life expectancy, and the paper focuses on its calculation. The sensitivity of results to various forms of data error is considered, and procedures are proposed for removing errors resulting from differential census coverage completeness and from age misstatement at older ages. Applications of the procedures are made to data from Sweden, India and South Korea. Because of the absence of a radix, estimation of life expectancy usually will begin at the fifth birthday.     

Moving towards local-level indicators of sustainability in forest-based communities: A mixed-method approach

Forest-dependent communities can beexemplified in terms of subsistencedependence, park-based tourism dependence, ortraditional logging dependence. In monitoringthe sustainability of these places,researchers have struggled to develop relevantindicators responsive to their unique social,economic, and environmental conditions. Inthis study, we attempt to deal with theseconditions by employing a quality-of-lifeframework in the selection of local-levelindicators, and by scrutinizing theseindicators in term of their relevance tospecific sustainability concerns. We usedworkshops, an indicator evaluation framework,and survey research to identify relevantlocal-level indicators of sustainability intwo Saskatchewan communities. Findingsemphasize the need for caution in assertingthe utility of ``one-size-fits-all' approachesto community sustainability. These communitiesdefine progress toward sustainability quitedifferently and therefore require a unique setof progress measures.     

A model for estimating fecundability of the currently married woman from the data on her susceptibility status—A cohort approach

A probability model to estimate fecundability of a married woman has been proposed under some mild assumptions. It utilises the knowledge on the susceptibility status of the married women (including menstruation, menopause, pregnancy and amenorrhea) and therefore sets another approach for estimating fecundability. In addition, it is capable of predicting the parity, proportion of foetal losses, fecundability and incidence of secondary sterility. The problem of finding out the consistent estimates of the parameters in the distribution is discussed in section 4. For illustra-tion, the model is applied to a set of simulated data after simplifying many assumptions of the model     

A vital statistics-based procedure for estimating conception rates

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain ifno contraception were used.     

Time-use auditing: An approach to validating social indicators

Following McCal,, ‘quality of life’ is defined as objective social conditions necessary to the general happiness, where ‘happiness’ is understood in the broad sense, as including all forms of intrinsically valuable experience, not just ‘feeling happy’. The argument is then made that in order for this definition to be fully implemented happiness in the broad sense must also be assessed. The latter half of the paper is devoted to describing a set of procedures, collectively called ‘time-use auditing’, for determining the extent to which an individual person is happy, in the broad sense, in a stated interval of time. Intrinsically valuable experience is analyzed into two dimensions: duration and level. The first is determined by time-budgeting and the second (in a general way) by Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Specifically, Maslow's hierarchy is spelled out in concrete terms by means of “time-use rating structures’, each one specific to a particular time-use category; the authors have written rating structures for adolescents of either sex, ages 12 to 17 inclusive. By way of illustration, an audit of three weeks in the life of a 16-year-old girl is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of what remains to be done, with special stress on writing time-use rating structures for other age groups and modifying structures already in existence to reflect the values of particular social groups.     

A model for estimating adolescent sterility among married women

A model to estimate adolescent sterility among married women is presented using the principle of convex combination of two or more probability density functions.     

A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy

Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy--constructing a life table--has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy data: (1) a nationwide sample of metropolitan areas and (2) selected cities, their suburbs, and rural counties in Ohio. An additional test shows the sensitivity of the model's accuracy to errors in one of its input data elements. The results suggest that the model should be given serious consideration for generating life expectancy estimates for substate areas.     

The bogue-palmore technique for estimating direct fertility measures from indirect indicators as applied to Tennessee counties, 1960 and 1970

Bogue and Palmore's technique for estimating direct fertility measures from indirect indicators IS applied to the 95 counties of Tennessee 1960 and 1970. Findings based on these data tentatively suggest that this technique may be better suited for cross-national research than for analysis of small population units. It is recommended that the "own child" method is more appropriate for estimating fertility when utilizing data on counties.     

A Simple method for estimating age-specific rates from sequential cross sections

I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.     

A short-cut method for estimating death registration completeness in destabilized populations

"This paper proposes a simple method for evaluating death registration completeness during intercensal periods. It is easier to implement than alternative methods but its main advantage is making explicit the dependence of results on the quality of readily observed demographic variables. Applications are made to data from South Korea and Argentina."     

A system of social indicators for the CMEA countries and for Hungary

This paper discusses the reasons for the growing demand for social indicators in Hungary and in other European socialist countries. A brief history of the construction of a system of social indicators within the framework of the Council of Mutual Economic Aid is given. The subsystems and the main indicators are described. The present practice and the problems of social classifications used in the social indicator systems and in social surveys are treated. In addition to the existing data sources of social indicators, sample surveys were considered to be necessary to provide a full and detailed view of Hungarian society. In addition to objective indicators, recently, subjective indicators have also been collected.     

Social indicators: A statistician's view

In the following we consider the problem areas of social indicator research which are of concern to the statistician and in which he can prove helpful. Among these are the purposes of social indicators, what social variables should be considered as conceivable variables related to quality of life, what data should be collected taking in account the difficulty of not being able to directly measure variables of interest, how does one collect the data (which is usually in the form of a time series) guarding against multicollinearity, and how should the collected data be handled and analyzed. We discuss why in social indicator research the secular trends, cyclical movements, seasonal variations and irregular fluctuations must be taken into account. Techniques are discussed for relating lead indicators in one time period to coincident indicators in another period. Finally we present a select bibliography in canonical correlation, forecasting, indicators and index numbers, path analysis, regression analysis, simulation techniques, time series analysis and other areas useful in analyzing social indicator data.     

National indicators for health for all

This paper examines available international data relevant to the World Health Organization model of health status. It explores the possibility of constructing useful measures of health status, health policy, social and economic status, and provision of health care based on these data. A five-factor model is developed and tested empirically using World Bank statistical data from 123 countries. Two factors representing dimensions of country affluence and population density are found to explain 78 percent of the variations in the health status indicator. The countries with health status indicator levels worse than those predicted by the model are predominantly third-world countries; a majority are African. Countries with health status indicator levels better than predicted are mainly in Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some generally accepted causal relationships were not supported by the findings in this analysis.     

A simple equation for estimating the expectation of life at old ages

Abstract There is much direct and indirect evidence that in a number of populations the ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, both when reported in censuses and in records of deaths. This results in overestimated expectations of life at old ages. The bias may be corrected by estimating the expectation of life at age a, e(a), from the mortality rate and growth rate at age a and above, M(a+) and r(a+), using the equation developed in this paper: 1/ê(a) = M(a+) exp (β . r(a+). M(a+)(-α)). For a ?, 65, α = 1.4 and β = 0.0951 have been chosen. The value of the equation rests on the following: since ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, there may be an age a such that most age transfer occurs above that age, and age transfer across the age is small or cancels, so that reasonably accurate values of M(a+) and r(a +) can be obtained, even though ages are badly reported above a. The analysis of artificial data on Gompertzian stable popultions aged over 50 and actual statistics for some selected populations has suggested that the equation provides quite accurate estimates of e(a). The equation also seems useful in closing life tables, since it provides a value of e(a) for the highest age group.     

Science indicators/1976: A critique

Science Indicators/1976 (SI/76) is the third volume in a biennial series of profiles of contemporary U.S. science and scientists produced by the National Science Foudation under the direction of its National Science Board. The bulk of this volume, as of its predecessors, consists primarily of charts, figures and tables that contain time series data representing resources, activities and products of American science. The implicit theoretical structure that guided the collection of these data, a two-tiered input-output model, is described and criticized as are the data themselves. The diagnosis of U.S. science today that emerges from these data is one of reasonably sound health. But SI/76 is also, again implicitly, a device for projection and here the picture is gloomier: as resources for science dwindle so must the magnitude of the enterprise decline, together quite possibly with the quality of its products. Although brickbats are hurled at SI/76, particularly for its inadequate disaggregation and lack of quantitative analyses, it is judged to be a work of extremely high quality and utility.     

Social indicators, 1976: A critique

Social Indicators 1976 is reviewed from the point of view of its conceptual framework, data presentation, analysis and interpretation, data quality, variable disaggregation and quality of life measures.     

Applied social reporting: A social indicators system for West German Society

This paper presents a ‘system’, i.e. systematic compilation, of about 200 social indicators in 10 areas of life, for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1955–1975. The construction of this indicator system is explained and an abridged version is introduced that can be comprised into one master table. Next, an overall evaluation of welfare development in West Germany is given and four models for a time-sequence interpretation are discussed. Finally, the present effort is put in perspective, e.g. in regard of the OECD program and of recent quality-of-life survey research.     

A modification for use in destabilized populations of brass's technique for estimating completeness of death registration

The analysis of censuses for pre-industrial Europe has caused doubts about the supposed dominance of stem and joint family organization in earlier times. Using a hypothetical example of a nuclear family organization where extended composition is only found when widowed persons find shelter in the household of one of their children, we show that both the expected value and the variance of the estimated frequency of extended composition are high under demographic circumstances typical of pre-industrial Europe. This makes inferences about family organization based on data concerning family composition hazardous