中国城乡弱相对贫困测算及时空演变：2012—2018

相对贫困的识别和测算是瞄准贫困人口和制定减贫政策的基础,但常用于识别相对贫困人口的比例收入法和测度相对贫困程度的FGT指数在理论基础、比例设定和贫困性质方面遭到质疑。采用基于社会融入成本理论的弱相对贫困人口识别方法,及与弱相对贫困线相适应的分层可加综合贫困指数,且考虑与现阶段我国绝对贫困线衔接性及国际标准的可比性,使用2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据估计了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困线,并测算分析了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度及时空演变特征。研究表明,基于弱相对贫困线构造的综合贫困指数兼顾绝对贫困和相对贫困,可以避免传统FGT指数分别测度绝对贫困和相对贫困时动态变化趋势出现分歧的问题,可更为直观地综合评估经济增长和扶贫政策的减贫效应。无论城乡,尽管不平等导致相对贫困始终处于高位水平,但绝对贫困更大的下降幅度使得中国收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度仍呈稳健下降趋势。从社会融入成本角度出发,建议未来考虑住房成本和子女养育成本,分家庭类型进一步细化弱相对贫困标准。本研究有助于进一步分类瞄准弱相对贫困人口,监测弱相对贫困程度演变并综合评估减贫效应。     

Relationship Between Household Food Poverty and Vulnerability to Food Poverty: Evidence from Nigeria

Poverty and vulnerability to poverty are major challenges facing developing countries and have attracted the attention of development economists and policy analysts in recent years. This study examined the relationship between household food poverty and vulnerability to food poverty in Nigeria based on data from Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) (2004) obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. A least-cost technique associated with the food-energy-intake approach was used to compute zone-specific food poverty lines based on the food baskets common to each geo-political zone; the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) poverty index was used in computing food poverty incidence; the three-step feasible generalised least squares (3FGLS) procedure was used in estimating the magnitude of vulnerability to food poverty; cross tabulation and Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient were utilised for the purpose of analysing the association between household food poverty and vulnerability to food poverty. The food poverty incidence was 50.23 % while the vulnerability to food poverty incidence was 61.68 % and the vulnerability to food poverty/food poverty ratio was 1.228. The food poor were more vulnerable to food poverty than the non food poor. There was significant positive correlation between food poverty incidence and vulnerability to food poverty incidence even though the correlation was not very strong. Thus, policies and programmes that will optimally reduce food poverty and vulnerability to food poverty should be adopted in Nigeria; these should be targeted more on the food poor. This is a major way to break the yoke of underdevelopment in Nigeria.     

Measuring Child Poverty in Hong Kong: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale

In September 2013, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region established Hong Kong’s first official poverty line. The new poverty line is used as a major yardstick in social welfare policy formulation and in the allocation of public resources aimed at combating poverty; despite its importance, however, its robustness has not been examined. Using data from the 2011 Population Census, we examined the robustness of the official poverty line in measuring child poverty in Hong Kong through assessing the sensitivity of child poverty measures to the choice of different equivalence scales. The results show that the child poverty profile in Hong Kong is generally not sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale and that the official poverty line correctly identifies those children who live in poverty. Rates of child poverty among boys and girls of different ages, with different family backgrounds and living in households with different compositions, were calculated and ranked using different equivalence scales; these rankings were found to be very similar to those yielded by the official poverty measure. Thus, the choice of adult equivalence scale does not favour any subgroup. We also examined the child poverty profile in Hong Kong based on the official poverty measure and with our 2011 census data. We found that the children in our sample were more likely than the adults to live in poverty household; that more than half of the children who lived in poverty belonged to working poor families; and that children living in public housing were particularly likely to suffer from severe poverty. In light of these findings, we urge the government to prioritise taking measures aimed at lifting children out of poverty.     

农村反贫困：开发式扶贫与社会保护的协同推进

我国农村的扶贫实践活动取得了举世瞩目的好成绩,然而新时期中国的减贫战略却面临着理论与实践两个困境：贫困内涵的转变,农村反贫困实践难度越来越大,贫困率的下降日渐趋缓。为打好新一轮扶贫攻坚战,必须坚持开发式扶贫方针,加大投入力度,强化社会保护政策减贫效应,将开发式扶贫政策与社会保护政策有效衔接起来,联合建构协同推进,构建集“开发性、预防性、发展性”于一体的新型减贫战略体系,针对不同贫困群体充分发挥各自减贫优势,让贫困者摆脱贫困的同时,自身发展能力也有所提高。     

民族地区城镇贫困动态演化与经济增长益贫性研究

本文利用FGT贫困指数对2000-2011年民族地区城镇绝对贫困和相对贫困进行了测度．分析了民族地区城镇贫困的动态演化特征。并利用减贫的收入、分配弹性以及贫困指数的Shapley分解。研究了民族地区经济增长益贫性问题。结果表明,民族地区城镇绝对贫困持续缓解,但受收入分配格局变化的影响,相对贫困问题开始凸显。经济增长的减贫效率体现出较为显著的阶段性和外部冲击敏感性。在制定和实施同质性减贫政策的同时．应该凸显贫困人口内部的异质性。同时,构建对本地城镇贫困人口更为包容和稳健的经济发展方式是未来民族地区实现城镇减贫的关键。     

Determinants of Poverty and Their Variation Across the Poverty Spectrum: Evidence from Hong Kong,a High-Income Society with a High Poverty Level

This study aims to investigate into the determinants of poverty in Hong Kong. Previous research on poverty, which usually adopted a logistic regression model to examine individuals’ probabilities of being poor, could not adequately reveal the heterogeneity in experiences among people across the poverty spectrum, therefore has limited policy effort to address diverse needs of individuals struggling with poverty. In the present study, this concern is addressed by using a quantile regression model to examine the differential effects of the determinants of poverty across the poverty spectrum. Data were drawn from the Hong Kong Panel Survey for Poverty Alleviation (n?=?1668). Logistic regression indicated that being elderly, being female, not having a partner, from a single-parent household, not being employed, living in public rental housing, have lower educational attainment, and have poor self-rated health, increased the probability of being poor. Informational support was a protective factor of poverty, while several negative life events, such as having family member(s) with disabilities/chronic diseases and having financial burden, were risk factors of poverty. Quantile regression analysis was adopted to further examine the extent to which determinants of poverty unfold across poverty spectrum, which was captured by five groups of “extremely poor”, “deeply poor”, “at the poverty line”, “near poverty” and “marginally poor”. Quantile regression indicated that people living across the poverty spectrum were similarly affected by not having a partner, living in single-parent households and not working. However, extremely poor and deeply poor were more adversely affected by old age than those near poverty and marginally poor. It is also discovered that public rental housing buffered the poverty risks more in those who lived in deep poverty than those who were near poverty and marginally poor. University education protected the near poverty and marginally poor to a larger extent than those who were extremely poor and deeply poor. Information support also buffered the poverty risks, and people living across the poverty spectrum were equally benefited from it.

     

"Struggling to Keep the Wolf from the Door"? Analysis of Rural Poverty Using a Consumption-Based Approach in West Belesa District,Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest poverty rates in the world where 24% of the population lives in extreme poverty. While urban poverty reduced from 26% in 2011 to 15% in 2016, rural poverty reduced only from 30 to 26% in the same periods. Improper identification of the rural poor and ill-understanding of the extent of rural poverty is among the challenges in designing appropriate poverty reduction interventions in rural areas. Thus, this study analyzes the extent of rural poverty employing a consumption-based approach and identifies the determinants of rural poverty at a household level. A household survey was conducted and data were randomly collected from 194 households from four representative villages in the west Belesa district of Ethiopia. The food and non-food consumption measurement calculated by the cost of basic need approach were 2949.40 ETB (ETB is Ethiopian Birr, which is the Ethiopian currency. 1 ETB is equivalent to 0.025 US$) and 1485.78 ETB per year per Adult Equivalent (AE), respectively. The rural poverty indices (i.e. headcount index, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap) calculated based on the consumption-based poverty line were 38.1, 8.84, and 3.1%, respectively. The binary logit analysis shows that having a bigger family had a significant and positive relationship with rural poverty. Conversely, larger landholding, plowing oxen, and livestock ownership as well as a higher amount of non/off-farm income have a significant and negative relationship with the poverty status of households. The study found that rural poverty is deep and complex in the study area calling for the design of location-specific and holistic poverty reduction strategies.

     

Gender and Multidimensional Poverty in South Africa: Applying the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

Recent work has shown that the gender gap in income poverty has widened in post-apartheid South Africa even though overall poverty levels have declined. One of the main criticisms of money-metric studies of gendered poverty differences is that income is only one dimension of poverty and that other measures of welfare may better reflect the relative well-being of women and female-headed households. This article presents a multidimensional approach to measuring the gender poverty gap in post-apartheid South Africa. Using data from the 2008 wave of the South African National Income Dynamic Study, the internationally comparable multidimensional poverty index (the MPI) is used to estimate gender differences in a number of different achievements. The findings suggest that the multidimensional gender poverty gap is similar to the poverty gap measured by the conventional money-metric approach at several national poverty lines. However, the MPI poverty differential between female- and male-headed households is slightly narrower than the income poverty gap between these two household types. In order to explore these findings further, the paper decomposes the components of multidimensional poverty by gender and for both female- and male-headed households. The paper concludes by considering how greater investments in health care delivery and in basic services, particularly in rural areas, may yield progress towards gender equality.     

Social Workers’ Causal Attributions for Poverty: Does the Level of Spatial Concentration of Disadvantages Matter?

Social workers may play an important role in the implementation of welfare policies targeted at the poor. Their norms, beliefs, and attitudes form local anti-poverty programmes and affect discretionary practices with their clients. Despite this, we know little about how social workers’ exposure to poverty shapes their attitudes towards poverty and their causal attributions for poverty. This study investigates social workers’ poverty explanations and the extent to which they depend on the level of local poverty. Data from a survey conducted among Hungarian social workers were analysed using multilevel linear regression models. To measure local poverty, we used a composite index of poverty, as well as a subjective measure of exposure to poverty. Our analysis revealed that most social workers explained poverty with structural causes, but individual blame was also frequent. Contrary to our hypothesis, the level of local poverty did not significantly increase the adoption of structural explanations but did raise the occurrence of individualistic ones. However, the effect of local poverty was non-linear: social workers tended to blame the poor for their poverty in the poorest municipalities, where multiple disadvantages are concentrated, while moderate poverty did not lead to such opinions. Our results suggest that efforts should be made to improve the poverty indicator framework to better understand the phenomenon of spatial concentration of multiple disadvantages and its consequences for the poor.

     

关于中国贫困的动态多维度研究

文章利用中国健康与营养调查8个调查年度的数据,基于能力方法的视角,选用收入、教育和生活质量3个维度,对中国的贫困状况进行了动态多维度考察,结果发现:(1)相对于单一的收入贫困,多维贫困程度更为严重、波动性更大,贫困人口应对外部冲击的脆弱性明显,其中教育贫困尤其严重。(2)尽管农村与城市之间收入贫困趋于收敛,但近年来农村多维贫困对全国的贡献度高达80%以上,城乡间多维贫困差异有不断扩大的趋势。(3)指标等权重情形下的多维贫困随时间推移呈平稳快速下降态势,其中生活质量改善对多维贫困下降的贡献度最大。(4)就影响多维贫困的外在环境因素而言,东部地区的多维贫困下降明显快于其他地区,家庭中劳动力及户主的特征也对多维贫困产生显著影响。文章探讨了多维贫困的致因和消除多维贫困的政策选择。     

Using VPI to Measure Poverty-Stricken Villages in China

Revealing the comprehensive poverty levels and spatial diversities of poverty-stricken villages is a prerequisite for “Entire-village Advancement” anti-poverty policy of China. In response, we build a multidimensional poverty assessment model from the perspective of spatial poverty, adopting VPI (village-level poverty index) to examine multiscale and multidimensional situations and characteristics of poverty-stricken villages in rural China, then adopting spatial geostatistics to explore their multidimensional and multiscale spatial point pattern distribution. Further, we also introduce LSE model to examine their poverty types. Our tests show that, Firstly, the validity and reliability of the VPI model can be justified in terms of village-level targeting ratio and policy-coverage ratio. Then, the poverty level of poverty-stricken villages follows a normal-right distribution, presenting an “olive” structure with a shape of “large middle, and small at two ends”, poverty levels and poverty sizes of different counties obviously increasing from east to west, and different classifications of counties also representing different poverty levels. On the other hand, there exists three kinds of multi-scale poverty clusters among different contiguous destitute areas, namely, clustering-randomness-dispersion, randomness-clustering and dispersion/randomness distribution. Villages with poverty type of three-factor dominance account for over 50 % of the total villages, their poverty are mainly caused by harsh geographical environment, disadvantaged production and living conditions, and poor labor forces. This research helps know well about the relationships among different villages from the multiscale and multidimensional views, so as to provide decision basis for optimal development and reorganization of the poverty-stricken villages in rural China, which is of vital practical significance to make overall arrangement of rural development-oriented poverty elimination and to boost new round of precise poverty elimination and new countryside construction.     

中国西部少数民族地区人口的贫困原因及其政策启示

中国的少数民族人口主要分布在生态环境恶劣、经济社会发展落后的西部地区,这些地区同时也是贫困人口分布最多的区域。本文首先从地域、人口增长以及国家扶贫战绩几方面分析了西部少数民族地区人口与贫困在地域上的重合性,进而从区域发展、社会公平和政策效果以及贫困人口的人文因素等方面分析了造成少数民族地区人口贫困的原因,认为虽然造成区域性少数民族贫困状况的主要原因来自于区域发展的滞后,但在摆脱贫困的难易方面,政府提供的脱贫服务和民族人口的人文制约因素则起着更为重大的作用。     

长期贫困为什么难以消除？——来自扶贫重点县教育发展的证据

教育是农民摆脱长期贫困的重要力量和工具。但我国农村贫困地区的教育长期发展相对滞后,并且因为教育体系和培养目标与农村实际不符,以及教育投资不足和当前愈来愈严重的“教育不公”,促使教育的减贫作用无法发挥或者正在减弱。因此,教育改革是消除长期贫困的内在要求,它必须在培养目标、学级构成、投入体制和扶助体系方面进行必要的改革和完善。     

Poverty as Functioning Deprivation: Global Estimates

Poverty alleviation and eradication have always remained a major challenge for the political leadership at the national and international level. However, no consensus exists about the definition and measurement of poverty. Recent understanding sees poverty as much more than lack of income. Hunger, unemployment and ill heath are just some of many dimensions of poverty. We have contributed to the existing debate by defining poverty as a deprivation of a number of functionings (actual achievements), considered vital but not equally important for human wellbeing, caused by an inadequate command over market or nonmarket resources. We have identified nine basic functionings and corresponding indicators that best reflect these nine basic functionings and develop a composite index of poverty for 193 countries of the world for cross country comparison. We have analyzed poverty for two periods 1990–2000 and 2001–2010 to make an inter-temporal comparison in global poverty. According to our estimates, the global poverty has only modestly come down by 4 percentage points from 35% in 1990–2000 to 31% in 2001–2010. This contrasts sharply with the estimates based on the poverty line of the World Bank that the proportion of population living in extreme poverty has nearly halved from 47% in 1990 to 24% in 2015.     

Chronic and Transient Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence Using a Simple Spells Approach

This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the households enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic case. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads’ low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. The paper also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policy suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided.     

Poverty Lines Based on Fuzzy Sets Theory and its Application to Malaysian Data

Defining the poverty line has been acknowledged as being highly variable by the majority of published literature. Despite long discussions and successes, poverty line has a number of problems due to its arbitrary nature. This paper proposes three measurements of poverty lines using membership functions based on fuzzy set theory. The three membership functions, namely exponential, trapezoidal and quadratic sigmoid together with their calculation steps are discussed. Average monthly household incomes of Malaysians are used to illustrate the proposed poverty line. Three new sets of poverty lines were derived for 3 years as numerical application to the proposed membership functions. The numerical results show the flexibility of poverty lines resulted from the composition of the proposed functions. It suggests that the official poverty line for Malaysians is too low thus creating an underestimation of the extent of poverty in Malaysia.     

新疆农村贫困程度测度与扶贫资金动态绩效分析

新疆作为一个多民族、多宗教、多文化、多语言共存的特殊地区,扎实应对和稳步解决新疆贫困问题,事关祖国边疆的安全与稳定。首先,通过测算1994—2009年FGT贫困指数后发现:新疆农村的贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困强度的变化趋势具有波动性和阶段性特征,而且近几年减贫速度明显放缓,甚至有趋于加重的趋势;新疆农村居民的收入差距状况也不容乐观,正处于危险的边缘。然后,利用状态空间模型分析扶贫资金对贫困程度的动态扶贫绩效,得出以下结论:信贷扶贫资金的整体表现最佳,财政扶贫资金作用居中,以工代赈资金则在降低贫困强度方面表现较好;同时,总结出以下规律:当贫困程度较深时,具有较强盈利性的信贷扶贫资金和较强扩散性的财政扶贫资金更为有效;当由大范围贫困转为少数人贫困时,具有较强针对性的以工代赈资金更为有效。     

Is poverty multidimensional? A comparison of income and asset based measures in five Southern African countries.

This paper contests the major emphasis placed on the multidimensional nature of poverty measurement. Instead, it argues that poverty pictures created by different measures and at different units of analysis tend to converge. This argument is derived from a comparison of poverty pictures created using income and asset-based measures at the national and household level in five South African Development Community countries. Although multidimensional measures have value in illuminating subtle differences, the findings indicate a single dimension of poverty that runs throughout all the measures and levels of analysis. However, despite the single poverty picture provided by different measures, the abandonment of these different measures is not supported. Multidimensional measures provide insight into particular elements of poverty that is useful and relevant to poverty interventions.     

Material Deprivation and Working Poor in Hong Kong

In-work poverty is a growing problem in many developed economies. In Hong Kong, there were 200,700 working poor households in 2016, and approximately half of the total poor population in Hong Kong was living in those working poor households. A growing body of literature has examined the problem of the working poor, but most studies have used relative income as a measure of poverty. In this paper, we adopt the material deprivation approach for assessing the poverty situation of in-work poverty households in Hong Kong. We have interviewed 3565 workers in Hong Kong during a survey conduct in 2016. We compare the results of the material deprivation approach with those of the income poverty approach and evaluate the adequacy of the official income poverty line in gauging the situation of in-work poverty. Our findings reinforce existing studies indicating that deprivation offers an important complement to the income poverty line in poverty analysis. Our results show that there is a moderate overlap between workers identified as poor by the deprivation approach and by the income poverty line. And these two groups of workers have very different profiles. The results provide important policy implications for alleviating poverty among the working poor in Hong Kong.

     

Multidimensional Poverty in Mountainous Regions: Shan and Chin in Myanmar

Poverty is complex and multidimensional. People living in mountainous regions are vulnerable and more likely to experience multiple deprivation. However, few studies have addressed multidimensional poverty in mountainous regions. Using data from 4290 households of poverty and vulnerability assessment survey and the Alkire–Foster methodology, this paper estimate and decompose multidimensional poverty in the states of Shan and Chin in Myanmar. The multidimensional poverty is measured in five dimensions and a set of twelve indicators. Nearly half of the population in Shan and three-quarters in Chin were multidimensionally poor. The average intensity of poverty was 44% in Chin and 38% in Shan. The multidimensional poverty index was 0.33 in Chin and 0.19 in Shan. The level of multidimensional poverty in Chin was similar to that in of Sub-Saharan Africa. In Chin, 60% of the population was both multidimensionally poor and consumption poor, but in Shan, it was 20%. About 28% of the population in Shan and 15% in Chin were multidimensionally poor but not consumption poor. Deprivation in education accounts for one-third of the multidimensional poverty in Shan; while deprivation in health accounts for one-third of the multidimensional poverty in Chin. A higher proportion of multidimensionally poor had experienced shocks such as the death of a household member, agricultural loss, or death of livestock compared to the multidimensional non-poor. Multidimensional poverty was significantly higher for rural household, households with lower educational attainment, consumption poor and among those who lived in Chin. Poverty reduction programs require a holistic understanding of poverty and its different dimensions as well as the main contributing factors for effective planning and program implementation. Geographical targeting of poverty reduction program and larger investment in food, health, water, energy and education can reduce the extent of multidimensional poverty in Shan and Chin.