What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?

We construct a novel index of households’ macroeconomic environment (HOME) based on the data from 22 high-income European countries between 2002 Q1 and 2018 Q4. The resulting index is in line with the broad features of the countries’ business and financial cycles and captures well households’ perception of their underlying economic situation. We discuss joint properties of the HOME index and the widely employed survey-based consumer confidence indicator. We show that households’ expectations are tightly linked to current macroeconomic conditions. This finding echoes the literature linking consumer attitudes and actual economic developments. The HOME index also reflects the importance of asset prices and lending conditions for households’ behavior. In a single-country case study, we provide empirical evidence that links the proposed index to new credit extended to households. The evidence suggests that households need a longer period of good macroeconomic conditions to decide to take on a mortgage than they do in the case of a consumer loan.

     

The Contribution of R&D Expenditure to Economic Growth in Developing Economies

This paper examines the role of R&D spending on economic growth of developing economies between the periods of 2000 and 2009. The impact of R&D spending on these economies is determined by using dynamic system GMM, pooled mean group and three stage least square-GMM models. Sixty-six countries are studied and further grouped as; upper-middle-income economies and lower middle-income economies. The result reveals a beneficial impact of R&D spending on economic growth in developing countries. The effect of R&D spending on growth is positive for upper middle-income economies while insignificant in lower income economies. R&D spending has different short and long run effects on growth. Using simultaneous equation models to account for simultaneity and endogeneity, R&D spending remains beneficial to growth and the results remain consistent with the dynamic system estimator.

     

First Order Dominance Techniques and Multidimensional Poverty Indices: An Empirical Comparison of Different Approaches

In this empirically driven paper we compare the performance of two techniques in the literature of poverty measurement with ordinal data: multidimensional poverty indices and first order dominance techniques (FOD). Combining multiple scenario simulated data with observed data from 48 Demographic and Health Surveys around the developing world, our empirical findings suggest that the FOD approach can be implemented as a useful robustness check for ordinal poverty indices like the multidimensional poverty index (MPI; the United Nations Development Program’s flagship poverty indicator) to distinguish between those country comparisons that are sensitive to alternative specifications of basic measurement assumptions and those which are not. To the extent that the FOD approach is able to uncover the socio-economic gradient that exists between countries, it can be proposed as a viable complement to the MPI with the advantage of not having to rely on many of the normatively binding assumptions that underpin the construction of the index.     

Education,Human Development and Quality of Life: Measurement Issues and Implications for India

This paper analyses and compares the measurement of indicators and variables in the construction of education index in Human Development Index (HDI) at the global, national and 18 sub-national human development reports in India since 1990. The results show non-comparability of measurement of the education indicators and variables. This implies that vertical and horizontal comparability of HDI may not be plausible for India. Implications of these analyses are highlighted for measurement of quality of life indices with special reference to physical quality of life index. Policy lessons are derived for future measurement of education index for India in particular, and other developing countries in general.

Application of Different Techniques of Factor Analysis to Develop Neighborhood Social Capital Rating Scale

Composite indicators are widely used to determine the ranking of countries, organizations or individuals in terms of overall performance on multiple criteria. Their calculation requires standardization of the individual statistical criteria and aggregation of the standardized indicators. These operations introduce a potential propagation effect of extreme values on the calculation of the composite indicator of all entities. In this paper, we propose robust composite indicators for which this propagation effect is limited. The approach uses winsorization based on a robust estimate of the distribution of the sub-indicators. It is designed such that the winsorization affects only the composite indicator rank but has no effect on the entities ranking in each sub-indicator. The simulation study documents the benefits of distribution-based winsorization in the presence of outliers. It leads to a ranking that is closer to the clean data ranking when compared to the ranking obtained using either no winsorization or the traditional winsorization based on empirical quantiles. In the empirical application, we illustrate the use of winsorization for ranking countries based on the United Nations Industrial Development Organization’s Competitive Industrial Performance index. We show that even though the sub-indicator ranking does not change, the robust winsorization approach has a material impact on the ranking of the composite indicator for countries with large discrepancies in the scores of the sub-indicators.

     

A client-satisfaction-based model of urban public service delivery organizational effectiveness

This article proposes a model for measuring the performance of urban public service delivery agencies. It also presents the results of the model's application to a case study involving urban housing policy organizations (HPOs) in Cameroon. The model incorporates consumer satisfaction, an obvious indicator of the effectiveness construct that is conspicuously lacking in extant models of organizational effectiveness. By incorporating this indicator, the model is potentially useful to especially city government officials interested in evaluating local public service delivery agencies from the point of view of those they profess to serve, the citizens.     

Material Deprivation and Working Poor in Hong Kong

In-work poverty is a growing problem in many developed economies. In Hong Kong, there were 200,700 working poor households in 2016, and approximately half of the total poor population in Hong Kong was living in those working poor households. A growing body of literature has examined the problem of the working poor, but most studies have used relative income as a measure of poverty. In this paper, we adopt the material deprivation approach for assessing the poverty situation of in-work poverty households in Hong Kong. We have interviewed 3565 workers in Hong Kong during a survey conduct in 2016. We compare the results of the material deprivation approach with those of the income poverty approach and evaluate the adequacy of the official income poverty line in gauging the situation of in-work poverty. Our findings reinforce existing studies indicating that deprivation offers an important complement to the income poverty line in poverty analysis. Our results show that there is a moderate overlap between workers identified as poor by the deprivation approach and by the income poverty line. And these two groups of workers have very different profiles. The results provide important policy implications for alleviating poverty among the working poor in Hong Kong.

     

Poverty Diagnostics Using Poor Data: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Pro-Poor Policy Making in Lesotho

Increasingly national statistical agencies are being called upon to provide high quality data on a regular basis, to be used by governments for evidence-based policy development. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) give impetus to this, and bring a prerequisite for comprehensive “poverty diagnosis”. Often the data that are required are not available, or are incomplete while the concepts that are to be used may be ambiguous or require adaptation to local conditions. The poverty analysis of Lesotho in this article represents a contribution towards the emerging culture of evidence-based policy-making in developing countries in that it explores changes in key poverty-related social indicators. Techniques for dealing with poor data are discussed and an approach to developing a poverty threshold adapted to the local conditions of Lesotho is described.     

Who Makes the Most? Measuring the “Urban Environmental Virtuosity”

This paper advances a composite indicator called urban environmental virtuosity index (UEVI), in order to measure the efforts made by public local bodies in applying an ecosystem approach to urban management. UEVI employs the less exploited process-based selection criteria for representing the original concept of virtuosity, providing makes a cross cities comparison. In developing such a framework the main technical issue of constructing a composite indicator, involving the weighting and the aggregation phases will be overcame by using a multivariate approach.     

中国的智力回流及其引致机制研究

智力外流问题是发展中国家社会经济发展中面临的重大问题。按照智力流动的规律,中国将进入智力回流期,但智力回流的机制不会自动生成,因此,积极探讨智力回流的影响因素,弄清智力回流的状况及其引致机制和相关政策支持系统,对加快智力回流的步伐,促进中国社会经济发展,尽快缩小与发达国家的差距,具有重要意义。     

Estimates of Spatial Prices in India and Their Sensitivity to Alternative Estimation Methods and Choice of Commodities

This paper provides Indian evidence on sub-national PPPs that point to considerable spatial price heterogeneity within the country, based on Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) data. The prices of various commodities have been generated from the household specific unit values obtained from the information on expenditures and quantities from the NSS unit records. This paper shows that the CPD model, proposed in the cross country context, can be adapted to the household context to estimate spatial prices in the intra country context. The proposed CPD based model is shown to be formally equivalent to certain well known fixed weight price indices under certain parametric configurations. The empirical contribution includes a systematic comparison between the spatial price indices from alternative models, namely the CPD and utility based models, and the result that the utility based methods point to a much greater extent of spatial price heterogeneity than is suggested by the CPD type models. The results also record the sensitivity of the spatial price indices to the choice of commodities in the utility based approach. The pairwise comparison of estimates suggests that commodity selection may be more important than model selection in its impact on the spatial price estimates, though the latter is important as well. The study provides estimates of rural–urban differentials in spatial price indices that suggest some interesting differences between the constituent states. The results make a strong case for further research on the topic of sub-national PPPs in the context of large heterogeneous countries.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

Measuring Women’s Empowerment at Household Level Using DHS Data of Four Southeast Asian Countries

Women’s empowerment is important indicator for social development, yet there has not been a practical index on women’s empowerment at household level, especially for developing countries. Previous studies have suggested a theoretical framework of four components of women’s empowerment at household level: women’s labor force participation, women’s household decision-making, women’s use of contraception and women’s education. In this study, a measurement of women’s empowerment is developed using principal axis factoring with micro data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on four Southeast Asia countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines and Timor-Leste. The results has consistently found three factors including women’s labor force participation, women’s education and women’s household decision-making that affect individual women’s empowerment. Nevertheless, despite the literature suggested by other studies, very little evidence was found to support family planning use as one of the components of women’s empowerment in these countries. The new measurement also provides a solution for the problem of lacking household level data in current indices. More importantly, the construction of the measurement is practically applicable in more than 90 developing countries where the Demographic and Health Surveys are available.     

Case study: fertility decline in Iran

Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000. This paper focuses on Iranians’ unique experience with implementation of a national family planning program. Recognition of sensitive moral and ethical aspects of population issues resulted in successful collaboration of technical experts and religious leaders. Involvement of local health workers, women health volunteers and rural midwives led to great community participation. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among married women. This case study will help policy makers and researchers in Moslem countries and other developing countries with high fertility rate to consider a successful family program as a realistic concept with positive impacts on nation’s health and human development.     

Population change in Meso-America: The Tip of the demographic Iceberg

This paper examines the demographic situation in Mexico and Central America (Meso-America) and looks at the momentum for growth implied by recent population shifts. Despite successes in reducing fertility levels in many Meso-American countries, the dramatic declines in mortality among infants and children have given rise to a "death dearth" that is contributing to a new "baby boom" in these countries; thus our subtitle, "The Tip of the Iceberg."The impacts of such population growth on education, the economy and migration are considered in some detail. The anticipated inability of country economies to provide jobs for the thousands of young adults entering the labor force in future years could result in significant increases in the number seeking to migrate in a northerly direction. Thus, the United States is also vitally interested in the demographic shifts taking place south of its border.The need for a more unified regional approach to some of the social and economic problems facing these nations is pointed out as is the need for a more rational immigration policy on the part of the United States in light of the potential increase in immigration in future years.     

Conceptualizing and Measuring Financial Resilience: A Multidimensional Framework

Financial inclusion has become a policy priority. For many countries, this has meant focusing on the delivery and practical aspects of financial products and services. This paper argues that this approach is not sufficient to improve financial wellbeing more broadly. It suggests a more comprehensive approach moving away from asking whether people are excluded or not to asking whether they have access to accessible, acceptable and appropriate resources and supports in adverse financial circumstances. A better understanding of individuals’ financial resilience: how they bounce back from adverse financial events and the resources and supports they draw on; could help determine where resources can and should be invested to assist people to cope with financial adversity, assist the development of effective policy and, ultimately, improve financial wellbeing. This paper puts forward a definition of financial resilience and a methodology for measuring it. Australia is used as a case country from which to draw conclusions using a survey of 1496 representative adults (18+). The findings indicate that over 2 million Australian adults experienced severe or high levels of financial vulnerability raising very real concerns about financial wellbeing. Implications for academics and policy makers are presented.

     

CDC on Vaccines and Children's Health: United States 1900–98

During the twentieth century, the health and life expectancy of persons residing in the United States—as in most other countries of the globe—have improved greatly. (For a discussion of some aspects of that improvement, see the article in this issue by Kevin White assessing the effects of changes in cardiovascular and tuberculosis mortality in the United States since 1900.) A considerable share of this change is attributable to advances in public health. To highlight these advances the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services) is issuing a series of reports profiling ten great public health achievements in the United States during the present century. The first of these reports discusses vaccination: “Impact of vaccines universally recommended for children—United States, 1900–1998,” MMWR 48 (12), 2 April 1999. It is reproduced below in full. The improvements chronicled in the report are especially great with respect to morbidity. In many developing countries mortality resulting from vaccine-preventable causes is, however, still very high. Recent international initiatives, involving UN agencies, bilateral aid agencies, foundations, and the vaccine industry, aim at accelerating the outreach of immunization in developing countries. A meeting discussing an expanded program of vaccination (Bellagio, March 1999) estimated that global immunization, at a cost of approximately $3 billion per year, could save some 40 million lives over the next ten years.     

The European Gender Equality Index: Conceptual and Analytical Issues

This article presents a composite indicator designed to measure and compare existing structural gender equality in the countries of the European Union. The construction of an index is always a complex task which requires making a great many important conceptual, analytical and empirical decisions. This complexity explains the wide variety of gender equality indices created during the last 25?years. All the proposed indices attempt to measure the same thing, gender (in)equality, but none of them define the concept they want to measure in exactly the same way, nor do they operationalize measurement in the same manner. Taking into account the methodology of these preceding approaches, this article explains the basis for the most important analytical and conceptual decisions made in constructing the European Gender Equality Index. The article also includes the overall scores obtained by the 27 European countries on this index, on its three basic dimensions (education, work and power), and on the eighteen indicators that make up its structure. With this data, corresponding to 2009, an adequate analysis of gender equality in Europe can be established.     

Economic Gender gap in the Global South: How Public Institutions Matter

One of the most challenging gender gaps in the Global South remains in the economic sphere. This paper examines how public institutions affect the gender gap in economic participation and opportunities in 74 developing and emerging countries during the period 2006–2016. We find that the public institutional environment is closely related to the economic gender gap. Specifically, the protection of property rights and guaranteeing security seem to be two key factors associated to lower economic gender inequality. Nevertheless, public institutions do not matter equally throughout economically backward countries. Whereas in emerging countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, a broad variety of institutional aspects, including undue influence on judicial and government decisions, are closely related to the economic gender gap, in low-income developing countries, such as Sub-Saharan countries, the problems of ethics and corruption stand out as a particularly remarkable element against economic gender equality. Some significant policy implications are derived from our findings regarding the potential of public institution reforms to reduce the economic gender gap.