Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change

This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns.     

The Internetization of International Migration

The Internet has revolutionized our economies, societies, and everyday lives. Many social phenomena are no longer the same as they were in the pre‐Internet era: they have been “Internetized.” We define the Internetization of international migration, and we investigate it by exploring the links between the Internet and migration outcomes all along the migration path, from migration intentions to actual migration. Our analyses leverage a number of sources, both at the micro‐ and the macro‐level, including the Gallup World Poll, the Arab Barometer, data from the International Telecommunication Union, the Italian population register, and unique register data from a migrant reception center in Southern Italy. We also distinguish between economic migrants—those who leave their country of origin with the aim of seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere—and political migrants—those who are forced to leave their countries of origin for political or conflict‐related reasons. Our findings point to a consistently positive relationship between the diffusion of the Internet, migration intentions, and migration behaviors, supporting the idea that the Internet is not necessarily a driving force of migration per se, but rather an enabling “supportive agent.” These associations are particularly relevant for economic migrants, at least for migration intentions. Further analyses underscore the importance of the Internet in providing a key informational channel which helps to define clearer migration trajectories.     

Return Visits as a Marker of Differentiation in the Social Field

Abstract

This article sets out to examine how differences within a migrant community are expressed through return visits, and particularly through visitors’ narratives about their country of origin. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with Burundians living in Norway and the UK, I argue that the Burundian social field is characterized by two opposing positions regarding the possibility of return, and that the political field in the country of settlement plays an influential role in how those two positions are defined. Two narratives called ‘instability and alienation’ and ‘progress and opportunities’ from return visits are used to express support for one or the other of these two positions. I also argue that Bourdieu’s conceptualization of social practice is highly relevant for migration research because it allows for analysing differences within a migration community, and that the advantages of combining habitus, capital and field should be further explored, both theoretically and comparatively.     

And yet it moves! (Climate) migration as a symptom in the Anthropocene

ABSTRACT

While the climate-migration nexus raises crucial questions of mobility and climate justice, it is commonly understood through simplistic narratives that reify a complex set of relations. The spectre of environmentally-induced exodus is recurrent in media, policy and activist circles, in spite of numerous studies that reveal the empirical flaws and noxious normative implications of such narratives. This article explores this insistence and the desire(s) for there to be a reified relation between climate and migration such insistence reveals. The article proceeds in three movements. First, it situates discourses on climate migration in relation to the crisis of humanism the Anthropocene signifies. Second, it operates a symptomatic reading of climate migration discourses, drawing on two understandings of symptom elaborated by Lacan – as ‘return of the repressed’ and as ‘Sinthome’. Read as a symptom, the figure of the climate migrant/refugee appears as the return of fundamental contradictions that carve contemporary regimes of socioecological (re)production. Through the concept of ‘Sinthome’, discourses on climate migration can be read as (illusory) attempts to shore up for the waning consistence of modern forms of ‘being human’. Finally, the article proposes a symptomatic reading of the Anthropocene itself, and elaborates on what the dissolution of this symptom/ Sinthome would entail.     

Exodus from the California Core: Using Demographic Effectiveness and Migration Impact Measures to Examine Population Redistribution Within the Western United States

Increasingly since the 1960s and 1970s, population migration trends within the United States have been driven by the development of a second western population core. The burgeoning concentration of population along the Pacific Coast has fueled the emergence of a significant interconnected system of western metropolitan areas that increasingly rivals the primacy of the long-established northeastern core. During the 1990s the dispersal of population downward within the western urban hierarchy supplanted a much diminished Frostbelt-to-Sunbelt trend to become the most salient aspect of national population redistribution. The Southern California and Bay Area conurbations are serving as the primary pivots fueling the extension of a western urban subsystem. In this study we use county-level IRS matched tax return data and the newly defined Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) units to explore the recent (1995–2000) flows of U.S. internal migrants within the functional urban system of the western United States. We present maps based on demographic effectiveness and on a new migration impact measure to examine and illustrate the evolving spatial patterns characteristic of current population redistribution across the West.

A Panel Based Analysis of the Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Other Individual Level Characteristics at Leaving on Returning

Individual level differentials between migrants and nonmigrants are examined to ascertain the likelihood of return migration to a prior residence based on characteristics at the time of departure from place of origin. Analysis focuses on comparisons of Hispanics, blacks and whites, examining the odds of return migration by education, employment status, marital status, home ownership, length of residence, gender, age, and migration interval. The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) is utilized to identify 13,798 preliminary migrations that may be followed by at least one return migration. Findings indicate a sharp decline in propensity to return migrate as length of absence from origin increases. Regardless of length of time since the preliminary migration, both blacks and Hispanics are more likely to return migrate than are whites. Individuals who resided at place of origin for longer periods before leaving had strikingly higher odds for return migration.     

Loss of genetic variability in a fragmented continuously distributed population

An individual-based simulation model was used to examine the effect of population subdivision, dispersal distance of offspring, and migration rates between subpopulations on genetic variability(H ₁ H _S andH _T ) in a continuously distributed population. Some difficulties with mathematical models of a continuously distributed population have been pointed out. The individual-based model can avoid these difficulties and can be used to examine genetic variability in a population within which individuals are distributed continuously and in which the dispersal of individuals is disturbed by geographical or artificial barriers. The present simulation showed that the pattern of decrease inH ₁ had three stages. During the first stage,H ₁ decreased at the rates predicted by Wright’s neighborhood size. During the second stage,H ₁ decreased more rapidly when the migration rate decreased, while during the third stage, it decreased less rapidly when the migration rate decreased. Increasing the number of subdivisions increased the rate of decrease after the 200th generation. The pattern of decrease inH _T was classified into 2 stages. During the first stage, the rates of decrease corresponded with those of a randomly mating population. During the second stage, a decrease in the migration rates of the subpopulations slowed the rate of decrease inH _T . A uniform spatial distribution and a reduced total dispersal distance of offspring causedH ₁ H _S , andH _T to decrease more rapidly. Habitat fragmentation in a continuously distributed population usually was detrimental to the genetic variability in the early generations. Other implications of the results for conservation are discussed.     

Measuring Interprovincial Flows of Human Capital in China: 1995–2000

This study measures the consequences of interprovincial migration in China in terms of the flows of human beings and the flows of human capital using two micro datasets. First, this study uses a household income survey dataset to estimate the earning returns to education as one of the two measurements of human capital. Then, the micro-dataset of the 2000 Chinese Census is used to calculate the flows of human capital among provinces by using the results from the estimation of human capital. The flows of human capital are then compared to the flows of human beings to see whether they go in the same directions and to the same extent. The results indicate that although in most of the cases, the flows of human beings and the flows of human capital are in the same directions, there are some cases that a province experienced a loss in human beings but a net gain in human capital, or vice versa. Second, some provinces are more adversely affected by the flows of human capital than others, which may not be seen by merely examining the flows of human beings. Third, non-hukou migration is different from hukou migration in volume, in scope of both gains and losses of human beings and human capital, and in directions for some provinces. Finally, we can conclude that measuring the flows of human capital is a useful way to observe how migration affects the potential of regional distribution of development.

Determinants of Work-life Balance: Shortcomings in the Contemporary Measurement of WLB in Large-scale Surveys

Research on work-life balance (WLB) has presented important insights into the problems of combining family aspirations with paid work in relation to policy relevant agendas. Using the ESS II (2004/2005), we examine work-related and household/family-related causes of WLB. We can corroborate other research findings that show that work-related aspects explain by far the largest part of the variation in WLB. However, we illustrate that the measurement of WLB is partly problematic. Because WLB scales conceptualize the work component more specifically than the life component, what ‘life’ means remains rather intangible apart from general references to the ‘home’, ‘housework’ and ‘family responsibilities’. This largely neglects different emic dimensions to WLB common to specific subgroups and renders the measurement rather abstract. Second, the wordings of WLB indicators already include their most probable explanations. There is the danger of a circular argument here and many explanations seem tautological. This makes it difficult to conclude on the effects of other than work-related aspects on WLB, which are, arguably, also important aspects of WLB. Finally, WLB scales hardly correlate with relevant external criteria, for instance subjective well-being. Following from these findings, we discuss what these WLB scales could really measure and propose to broaden quantitative empirical approaches to it.

Health Selection,Migration, and HIV Infection in Malawi

Despite its importance in studies of migrant health, selectivity of migrants—also known as migration health selection—has seldom been examined in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This neglect is problematic because several features of the context in which migration occurs in SSA—very high levels of HIV, in particular—differ from contextual features in regions that have been studied more thoroughly. To address this important gap, we use longitudinal panel data from Malawi to examine whether migrants differ from nonmigrants in pre-migration health, assessed via SF-12 measures of mental and physical health. In addition to overall health selection, we focus on three more-specific factors that may affect the relationship between migration and health: (1) whether migration health selection differs by destination (rural-rural, rural-town, and rural-urban), (2) whether HIV infection moderates the relationship between migration and health, and (3) whether circular migrants differ in pre-migration health status. We find evidence of the healthy migrant phenomenon in Malawi, where physically healthier individuals are more likely to move. This relationship varies by migration destination, with healthier rural migrants moving to urban and other rural areas. We also find interactions between HIV-infected status and health: HIV-infected women moving to cities are physically healthier than their nonmigrant counterparts.     

Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods

ABSTRACT

Observed schedules of migration rates exhibit strong regularities in age patterns. These regularities may be captured and represented by a mathematical expression known as the multiexponential model migration schedule. Fitting this function to empirical data requires non-linear regression methods and often some experimentation with alternative initial estimates of the parameters. Simpler, linear methods of estimation are adequate for most applications. These may be carried out with hand calculators or simple spreadsheet-based calculations on the computer. Such methods are studied and appear to perform satisfactorily.     

Quality of life in South Africa – The First Ten Years of Democracy

South Africa celebrated ten years of democracy in 2004. This special issue of Social Indicators Research (SIR) reviews developments that have impacted on the quality of life of ordinary South Africans during the transition period. The issue updates an earlier volume of SIR (Volume 41) published in 1997 and as a stand-alone volume. The earlier volume was initiated following SIR editor Alex Michalos’ first visit to South Africa. This update on quality of life in South Africa follows on his return visit to the country in 2004 to see firsthand the changes that had occured in the meantime. This introductory article outlines major achievements of and setbacks for the new democracy and the challenges facing it in future. It provides the backround for the evaluations of a range of quality of life domains and issues including poverty and inequality, crime, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, migration and housing, religiosity, reconciliation, and optimism for the future which are covered in the eleven articles that follow. The introduction divides the articles under the headings of challenges, achievements, monitoring quality of life, and social capital for the future. The overview article concludes that improvements in quality of life have been uneven but goodwill and a positive outlook bode well for South African quality of life in future.     

Children and return migration

We explore reasons for return migrations which are motivated by immigrants concerns about their children. We develop a simple model, where parents have paternalistic preferences. We show that parental concerns about the child may lead to an increase, or to a decrease in the tendency to return to the home country. Our model suggests that return plans of the parent may respond differently to the presence of daughters than to the presence of sons. The empirical test of our models relies on the exogeneity of childrens gender. We use a survey panel data set, containing information on both return realisations over 14 years, and intended return plans. Our results lend support to the hypothesis that children influence return plans of their parents.I am grateful to Jerome Adda, Jaap Abring, David Card, Slobodan Djajic, and Ian Preston for comments on earlier versions of this paper. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

Post‐colonial Pakistani Mobilities: the Embodiment of the ‘Myth of Return’ in Tourism

This paper examines post‐migration mobilities of a Pakistani diaspora (Luton, UK) by identifying the embodiment of the ‘myth of return’ in tourism participation to the homeland, Pakistan. The interpretive ethnographic accounts re‐consider the ‘myth of return’ concerning the emigration and immigration nexus. The continuation of traditions such as duties and obligations transmitted through the myth in tourism are analysed. The paper argues that the ‘myth’ is imperative to understanding the meanings the Pakistani community attaches to tourism motivations. The conclusion argues that the ties between post‐colonial diasporas and the homelands can be explained through post‐migration tourism mobilities.     

Paul Fauchille on the Rights of Emigration and Immigration

International migration is squarely on the present‐day agenda of the international community, as attested by the newly released report of the Global Commission on International Migration (see the Documents section of this issue) and by recurrent controversy over proposals to establish a migration analogue to the World Trade Organization. Conventional assumptions about the prerogatives of national sovereignty come up against universalist views of human rights, the logic of globalization, and, in some measure, the regulative ambitions of international organizations. The last period in which this subject aroused comparable ferment was in the 1920s. At that time the main sources of migrants were not countries of the global “South” but self‐described overpopulated countries in Europe. In May 1924 one such country, Italy, convened what became known as the First International Emigration and Immigration Conference. Held in Rome, the meeting was attended by delegates from 57 countries and the League of Nations. Among its resolutions was an “Emigrants' Charter,” recognizing rights to emigrate and immigrate but with strong provisos. Thus the right to immigrate was subject to restrictions “imposed for economic and social reasons based in particular on the state of the labour market and the necessity of safeguarding the hygienic and moral interests of the country of immigration” (see the Notes on Migration section in Industrial and Labour Information [Geneva], Vol. XI, July‐Sept. 1924, pp. 54–68). A more systematic discussion of these putative rights appeared in an article published a few months earlier by a prominent French jurist, Paul Fauchille, which is excerpted below. The rights to emigrate and to immigrate are seen as broad and fairly symmetrical, able to be limited by a state only by appeal to its own right of self‐preservation. Circumscribing the right to emigrate may seem dated in the light of the blanket provision in Article 13 of the (1948) Universal Declaration of Human Rights that “everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.” (In Fauchille's extreme case, a state can seek to prohibit the wholesale flight of its population.) However, on immigration, about which the Universal Declaration is silent, “self‐preservation” yields a longer list of grounds for restriction. An issue with contemporary resonance is whether those grounds can include the wish by a state “to prevent a fusion of races which might alter its ethnic character or obliterate its national culture.” Restriction on such a basis would be justified, says Fauchille, only where the intending migrants “belonged to an absolutely different civilisation” and were large in number. Paul Fauchille (1858–1926) was an expert in international law, author of the four‐volume Traité de Droit International Public (8th ed., Paris, 1921–26). He was the founding editor of Revue générale du droit international public and founding director (from 1921) of the Institut des Hautes Études Internationales within the University of Paris. The excerpt below is the major part (subtitled “State and Individual Rights in Theory”) of Fauchille's article “The rights of emigration and immigration,” which appeared in the International Labour Review (Geneva), vol. IX, no. 3 (March 1924), pp. 317–333.     

The United Nations on Levels and Trends of International Migration and Related Policies

Issues of international migration are drawing increasing attention not only from governments and their national constituencies but also from international organizations, notably from various components of the United Nations system. Better understanding of the causes of the flows of international migration and their relationship with development and answers to policy questions arising therefrom are, however, hampered by scarcity of up‐to‐date and reliable quantitative information concerning international migration. As a step toward remedying this gap, in March 2003 the Population Division of the United Nations issued a report, presumably the first of a series, titled International Migration Report 2002. A review essay by David Coleman discussing this publication appears in the book review section of the present issue of PDR. The bulk of this 323‐page document presents statistical profiles for more than 200 countries and territories and also for various regional aggregates. These summaries provide data or estimates (when available or feasible) on population, migrant stock, refugees, and remittances by migrant workers for 1990 and 2000, and on average annual net migration flows for 1990–95 and 1995–2000. These profiles also offer characterization of government views on policies relating to levels of immigration and emigration. According to the report, the total number of international migrants—those residing in a country other than where they were born—was 175 million in 2000, or about 3 percent of the world population. In absolute terms, this global number is about twice as large as it was in 1970, and exceeds the 1990 estimate by some 21 million. The introductory chapters of the report discuss problems in measuring international migration and summarize major trends in international migration policies since the mid‐1970s. An additional chapter reproduces a recent report of the Secretary‐General to the United Nations General Assembly on international migration. Reproduced below is much of the “Overview” section of the report (pp. 1–5). In addition to its published form (New York: United Nations, 2002, ST/ESA/SER.A/220), the full report is accessible on the Internet: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/ittmigrep2002.htm     

The recalcitrance of distance: exploring the infrastructures of sending in migrants’ lives

This paper puts the spatiality of migration, and more specifically post-migration connections, centre stage. It explores the distances confronted by migrants as they stay connected with their pre-migration lives, recognising that these distances are recalcitrant, asymmetrically governed spaces. Indeed, migrants can be understood as experts in the navigation of international space and ‘the tyranny of distance’. Inspired by recent work on urban and translocal infrastructures and taking the empirical example of migration infrastructures in the lives of Poles and Zimbabweans in the UK, looking particularly at the materiality and logistics of sending things back, this paper builds new discussions about migration which take the spatial, physical and grounded elements of migration and translocalism more seriously.     

Fertility and education premiums

This study examines households fertility variations in response to expected permanent shifts in the return to education. Wage premiums measurethe return to education because their long-run movements are driven by factors exogenous to the fertility process. The results indicate that high education parents fertility responds negatively to changes in the expected return to college and negatively to changes in the expected return to high school. On the other hand, the fertility of low education parents does not vary with changes to expected returns to education. These results can be consistently interpreted within a standard quality/quantity model of endogenous fertility.I am grateful to seminar participants at Penn State University, Virginia Tech. University, the Economic Demography Workshop at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and the Mid-West Macroeconomics Conference and well as to a helpful referee. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

A note on key factor analysis

Summary Various aspects of a model for key factor analysis (Manly, 1977a) are discussed. Equations for estimating the parameters of the model are given. The jackknife method is suggested for obtaining standard errors for estimators. The case of circular populations (where the adults in one generation produce all the individuals alive at the start of the next, generation) is considered. A computer program is described. Varley et al.’s (1973) data on the winter moth is used for illustrative purposes.     

Environment, transnational labor migration, and gender: case studies from southern Yucatán, Mexico and Vermont, USA

Gender shapes the migration–environment association in both origin and destination communities. Using quantitative and qualitative data, we juxtapose these gender dimensions for a labor migrant-sending location of Mexico’s southern Yucatán with those for a labor migrant-receiving location in Vermont (USA). We illustrate how in the southern Yucatán, circular transnational migration alters pasture, maize and chili production in a peasant field–forest system. Gender norms condition the land-use decisions of migratory households to keep women out of agricultural fields, but in turn may be modified in unexpected ways. With men’s migration, more women assume aspects of land management, including in decision-making and supervision of hired farm labor. In comparison, in Vermont a largely male migrant labor force helps maintain an idealized, pastoral landscape with gender deeply embedded in how that labor is constructed and managed.