The Burden of Risk: Who Dies Because of Cars?

This article argues that those interested in social policy should by definition be interested in issues of transport policy. It analyses data on road traffic fatalities and suggests, in the light of this evidence, that those who benefit least from the motor vehicle seem disproportionately likely, given their relative exposure to the risk, to die in road traffic accidents.     

Risk Perceptions and Value of a Statistical Life for Air Pollution and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Bangkok,Thailand

This paper presents results of two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Bangkok measuring individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality risk arising from two risk contexts: air pollution traffic accidents Results from the risk perception survey disclose that respondents view the two risks differently. WTP to reduce air pollution risk is influenced by degrees of dread, severity, controllability and personal exposure, while WTP to reduce traffic accident risk is influenced by perceived immediate occurrence. Nevertheless, the value of a statistical life (VSL) for both air pollution and traffic accidents are comparable (US$0.74 to $1.32 million and US$0.87 to $1.48 million, respectively). This indicates that the risk perception factor alone has little impact on the VSL, a finding similar to previous studies using program choice indifferences.JEL Classification: I18, D61, J17, J28     

The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India

We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks, as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life (VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars.

Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents

We present the results of a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions. The survey was self-administered using a computer by 930 persons in Hamilton Ontario aged 40 to 75. Visual and audio aides were used to enhance risk comprehension. Mean WTP figures for a contemporaneous risk reduction imply a value of a statistical life of approximately C$l.2 to C$3.8 million (1999 C$). Mean WTP is constant with age up to 70 years, and is about 30 percent lower for persons aged 70 and older. WTP is unaffected by physical health status, but is affected by mental health.     

Willingness to Pay for Health Protection: Inadequate Sensitivity to Probability?

Efficient investments in health protection require valid estimates of the public's willingness to forgo consumption for diminished probabilities of death, injury, and disease. Stated valuations of risk reduction are not valid measures of economic preference if the valuations are insensitive to probability variation. This article reviews the existing literature on CV studies of reductions in health risk and finds that most studies are poorly designed to assess the sensitivity of stated valuations to changes in risk magnitude. Replication of a recent study published in this journal by Johannesson et al. (1997) demonstrates how serious the problem of insensitivity can be, even for a study that reports plausible results. New empirical results are presented from telephone surveys designed to provide internal and external tests of how WTP responds to size of risk reduction. The effect of variations in instrument design on estimated sensitivity to magnitude is examined. Overall, estimated WTP for risk reduction is inadequately sensitive to the difference in probability, that is, the magnitude of the difference in WTP for different reductions in risk is typically smaller than suggested by standard economic theory. Additional research to improve methods for communicating changes in risk is needed, and future studies of stated WTP to reduce risk should include rigorous validity checks.     

Motoring Offences as Crime: Some Priorities for Social and Action Research

This paper highlights recent trends in criminology and assesses their relevance for road safety research. It is concluded that research priorities should be in the areas of general deterrence (particularly the value of random breath testing), physical prevention and study of the criminal justice system (especially the police). In addition, close attention should be paid to the political context within which the research is carried out. Lessons for methodology include greater use of direct and self reported measures of behaviour in addition to official statistics, experimental techniques rather than ‘quasi-experimental’, where possible, and interrupted time series analyses of the effects of legislative changes. There is a great need for a close analysis of the way in which traffic crash and violation data are recorded.     

Precautionary behavior and willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction: Searching for the expected relationship

This paper examines within-sample correlation between six different precautionary behaviors and stated willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction. The paper also shows estimates of the value of a statistical life based on seat belt and bicycle helmet use as well as based on the stated willingness to pay for a risk reduction in traffic mortality. Contrary to the theoretical expectations, no correlation is found between precautionary behavior and stated willingness to pay. One major explanation is that females and the elderly take more precaution, but state a lower WTP for a risk reduction. The estimates of VSL from the different approaches are $11.0 million, $5.0 million and $2.8 million from stated WTP, bicycle helmet use and seat belt use, respectively.

Children's Homicide and Road Deaths in England and Wales and the USA: An International Comparison 1974-1997

Correspondence to Professor Colin Pritchard, Department of Mental Health, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 OYG, UK. Summary Child murder often leads to demands for new legislation. Todetermine relative risks and the need for such change, children's(0–14) homicide and road deaths were compared internationally.All data were extrapolated from WHO standardized mortality statisticsand ratios of change were calculated. Five-year summed actualnumbers and rates for 1974–78 and 1993–97 were usedfor comparison. The findings indicate that children's road deathsfell substantially everywhere across the two periods; Englandand Wales had the lowest rate, and the fifth biggest reduction.In addition, in every country, the figures for children's homicidewere substantially lower than road deaths. England and Waleshad been fourth highest but by the later period were the thirdlowest. While children's homicide rose substantially in Franceand the USA, the biggest reductions were found in Japan andin England and Wales. For every country considered, road deathsfell proportionately more than deaths by homicide, althoughthe latter remained considerably lower than road deaths. Thestatistics led to the clear interpretation that the averagechild is substantially more at risk of being killed on the roadthan being murdered.     

Dirty money: Is there a wage premium for working in a pollution intensive industry?

Within a compensating wage differential framework we investigate whether there is a wage premium for working in a pollution intensive industry. Our results for the economy as a whole suggest a small wage premium of approximately one quarter of one percent associated with the risk of working in a dirty job. This premium rises to over fifteen percent for those individuals who work in one of the five dirtiest industries. We also find evidence of a fatal risk wage premium, providing estimates of the value of a statistical life of between ￡12 million and ￡19 million (2000 prices).     

Drink-driving and Adolescent Lifestyles: Re-Thinking Policy

The difficulty of evaluating the effectiveness of programmes to tackle road safety is well-known. Understandably most funds are spent on programmes (like manipulation of the physical environment and law enforcement) which are directed towards all road users rather than targeted at specific groups. In this paper we are concerned with the need to develop strategies for tackling the problem of drink-driving among a highly vulnerable group, namely young people. After examining the problem of drink-driving amongadolescents, we review some ofthe explanations for this phenomenon and consider their strengths and weaknesses. We take issue with the argument that only crude measures involving reductions in exposure to risk have any hope ofsuccess with young drivers. Our central argument is based on two distinct areas of research. The first has specifically identified adolescents asa vulnerable group. Thesecond hasdemonstrated the distinctive character of adolescent lifestyles. The paper attempts to demonstrate that drink-driving forms an integral part of the lifestyles of many adolescents. Educational and ‘lifestyle’ interventions should therefore focus specifically on adolescents and consider the diversity of lifestyles and social groups within this broad demographic category. We also draw attention to economic interests, social pressures and the politics ofroad safety legislation that imply constraints on policy change.     

School travel,partnerships, and neo-liberalism: insights from a South Island primary school

New Zealand schools may implement school traffic safety programmes such as assisted road crossings. Within New Zealand’s neo-liberal educational framework, these initiatives require collaboration between the school and associated agencies such as city councils and parents. In this research we examined the experiences of school representatives in creating such a road crossing. A qualitative research approach was used. Semi-structured interviews were held with key members of the school community. Email correspondence, document analysis, and the researcher’s reflexive diary were also data sources. The data were analysed via a general inductive approach to identify categories and themes from the data. After 18 months of pursuing the assisted road crossing, the school was unable to proceed with it. We found that a combination of competing priorities, unclear partnership processes, and lack of parent involvement was exacerbated by the neo-liberal environment. Ideas for future research are presented.     

Play streets: women,children and the problem of urban traffic, 1930–1970

This article explores women’s participation in campaigns for urban play streets in England c.1930–1970. Concentrating on activities in ‘traditional’ terraced streets, it argues that working-class street sociability was strongly connected to children’s play and that rising levels of traffic were beginning to threaten this before the Second World War, feeding growing anxieties over the high rate of road accidents to children. One response to this from the 1930s was a series of local experiments aimed at separating traffic from children (a radical alternative to the more usual response of keeping children away from traffic) through the creation of ‘play streets’, closed to traffic for much of the day. The idea was taken up by national government and became popular in post-war decades, often due to the efforts of local women to defend the public life of their communities. The growing controversy over the introduction and maintenance of play streets from the 1960s shows women struggling to maintain traditional street sociability against the gathering power of business interests and rising car ownership in the period.     

Imprecise preferences and the WTP-WTA disparity

This article reports the results of a study designed to elicit willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA) values for changes in the risk of nonfatal road injuries. We examine the possibility that individuals' preferences over combinations of wealth, risk, and safety are imprecise, and that this imprecision might result in the observed disparity between WTP and WTA measures of value. The results confirm that individuals' preferences for safety are significantly imprecise, but that this alone is insufficient to explain more than part of the disparity. Indeed, respondents' estimates of the minimum that they would be prepared to accept for a risk increase frequently exceed the maximum that they would be prepared to pay for an equivalent risk reduction.     

More on insurance as a Giffen good

In this article, we generalize the Hoy and Robson (1981) analysis and provide a necessary and sufficient condition for insurance not to be a Giffen good. The condition gives a bound for the variation of absolute risk aversion that permits the wealth effect to be always dominated by the substitution effect.     

Minimal Risk in Pediatric Research: A Philosophical Review and Reconsideration

Despite more than thirty years of debate, disagreement persists among research ethicists about the most appropriate way to interpret the U.S. regulations on pediatric research, specifically the categories of “minimal risk” and a “minor increase over minimal risk.” Focusing primarily on the definition of “minimal risk,” we argue in this article that the continued debate about the pediatric risk categories is at least partly because their conceptual status is seldom considered directly. Once this is done, it becomes clear that the most popular strategy for interpreting “minimal risk”—defining it as a specific set of risks—is indefensible and, from a pragmatic perspective, unlikely to resolve disagreement. Primarily this is because judgments about minimal risk are both normative and heavily intuitive in nature and thus cannot easily be captured by reductions to a given set of risks. We suggest instead that a more defensible approach to evaluating risk should incorporate room for reflection and deliberation. This dispositional, deliberative framework can nonetheless accommodate a number of intellectual resources for reducing reliance on sheer intuition and improving the quality of risk evaluations.     

Decreasing absolute risk aversion, prudence and increased downside risk aversion

Downside risk increases have previously been characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers u(x) with u????(x) > 0. For risk averse decision makers, u????(x) > 0 also defines prudence. This paper finds that downside risk increases can also be characterized as changes preferred by all decision makers displaying decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) since those changes involve random variables that have equal means. Building on these findings, the paper proposes using ??more decreasingly absolute risk averse?? or ??more prudent?? as alternative definitions of increased downside risk aversion. These alternative definitions generate a transitive ordering, while the existing definition based on a transformation function with a positive third derivative does not. Other properties of the new definitions of increased downside risk aversion are also presented.     

Poverty and deprivation among children in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Although there is now a large body of literature on poverty in the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, there remains a dearth of comparative analysis of child poverty and wellbeing. This article uses household survey microdata for the period 2001–2003 to compare absolute poverty, relative poverty, material deprivation and participation in schooling among children in five countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Russia and Tajikistan. The analysis shows that low absolute levels of household consumption are associated with other deprivation indicators and with children's participation in schooling. The article also highlights the usefulness of relative poverty measures that effectively identify children at risk of exclusion in even the poorest countries in the region. The article concludes by arguing that household consumption is a good indicator of child poverty and deprivation in the region, and that relative poverty measures should be more widely used in monitoring global targets for poverty reduction.     

Effects of aggressive driving and driver characteristics on road rage

To what extent is road rage triggered by aggressive driving behavior (frustration-aggression) or by characteristics of an aggressive driver (frustration-selective aggression)? Two scenarios on aggressive driving were presented to 144 undergraduates: impeding traffic (passive aggression) and reckless driving (active aggression). Age, gender, and cell phone use of a fictitious aggressive driver were manipulated in a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design. Dependent variables were anger that was created by each scenario, intentions to retaliate against the other driver, and intentions to report the incident to police. Age, gender, and cell phone use had no significant effects on results. Subjects raged far more against aggressive driving than against particular classes of aggressive drivers. Strategies for lowering road rage are discussed.     

Implementation of individual placement and support in a first‐episode psychosis unit: A new way of working

The aim of this study is to explore the IPS implementation process in a first‐episode psychosis (FEP) mental health service team in Sweden. More specifically, the study explores how integration processes and critical situations are perceived over time by team members who originated from two diverse welfare organizations. A serial interview design was used (initially, at 6 and 12 months) to describe experiences of 16 team members. Material was analyzed using a constant comparison grounded theory approach. Team members dealt with the ambivalence of sharing mental health information, and whether the new way of working was a risk or benefit for users. They gradually learned new perspectives and knowledge, built trust and shared common views. After a year, the team workload perceived reduced and became person‐centred. Some members described remaining unclear roles and requested further support. Negotiated goals for integration and early knowledge transfer are critical. Organizational change and trusting team relationships have to be facilitated. Anticipated gains of integration should be clearly described and discussed early on, and continuous support for sustainability should be considered. This study confirmed the importance and potential of integrating IPS into FEP teams.     

A Choice Experiment Approach to the Valuation of Mortality

This paper presents an integrated framework for evaluating the reduction of several types of mortality risk using a Choice Experiment (CE) approach, a type of stated preference technique. Using this approach, we can distinguish the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for the amount of risk reduction from the MWTP for the opportunity of risk reduction and therefore calculate the “Quantity-based” Value of a Statistical Life. The risks in our survey include mortality risks due to accident, cancer, and heart disease. The Quantity-based VSL is calculated to be 350 million JPY (in 2002 Japanese Yen, about 2.9 million US dollars). Furthermore, we analyzed the influence of subjective risk perception and population characteristics of the respondents on their MWTP. Estimated results suggest that it is unnecessary to adjust the VSL according to the differences in the type of risk if the VSL is calculated using an adequate approach. However, adjustments for the timing of risk reduction and population characteristics are found to be significant for the execution of benefit transfer.JEL Classification: I18, D81, J17