SIDE EFFECTS OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM

Because campaign finance reform is usually motivated by the concern that existing legislation cannot effectively prevent campaign contributions to “buy favors,” this article assumes that contributions influence political decisions. But, given that it is also widely recognized that interest groups achieve influence by providing political decision makers with policy relevant information, we also assume that lobbies engage in non‐negligible informational lobbying. We focus on a single political decision to be taken and offer a simple model in which the optimal influence strategy is a mixture of both lobbying instruments. Our main result is to show that campaign finance reform may have important side effects: It may deter informational lobbying so that less policy relevant information is available and as a result political decisions become less efficient. (JEL: C72, D72)     

TRUST,COORDINATION, AND THE INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION OF POLITICAL ACTIVISM

We study political activism by several interest groups with private signals. When their ideological distance to the policymaker is small, a “low‐trust” regime prevails: agents frequently lobby even when it is unwarranted, taking advantage of the confirmation provided by others' activism; conversely, the policymaker responds only to generalized pressure. When ideological distance is large, a “high‐trust” regime prevails: lobbying behavior is disciplined by the potential contradiction from abstainers, and the policymaker's response threshold is correspondingly lower. Within some intermediate range, both equilibria coexist. We then study the optimal organization of influence activities, contrasting welfare levels when interest groups act independently and when they coordinate. (JEL: D72, D78, D82)     

ENTRY AND ASYMMETRIC LOBBYING: WHY GOVERNMENTS PICK LOSERS

Governments frequently intervene to support domestic industries, but a surprising amount of this support goes to ailing sectors. We explain this with a lobbying model that allows for entry and sunk costs. Specifically, policy is influenced by pressure groups that incur lobbying expenses to create rents. In expanding industries, entry tends to erode such rents, but in declining industries, sunk costs rule out entry as long as the rents are not too high. This asymmetric appropriability of rents means losers lobby harder. Thus it is not that government policy picks losers, it is that losers pick government policy. JEL: H32, P16.     

THE BALANCED US PRESS

We measure the relative ideological positions of newspapers, voters, interest groups, and political parties, using data on ballot propositions. We exploit the fact that newspapers, parties, and interest groups take positions on these propositions, and the fact that citizens ultimately vote on them. We find that, on average, newspapers in the United States are located almost exactly at the median voter in their states—that is, they are balanced around the median voter. Still, there is a significant amount of ideological heterogeneity across newspapers, which is smaller than the one found for interest groups. However, when we group propositions by issue area, we find a sizable amount of ideological imbalance: broadly speaking, newspapers are to the left of the state‐level median voter on many social issues, and to the right on many economic issues. To complete the picture, we use two existing methods of measuring bias and show that the news and editorial sections of newspapers have almost identical partisan positions.     

Conceptualizing Emergent States: A Strategy to Advance the Study of Group Dynamics

In this review, we aim to advance work on group and team dynamics by examining how important elements of dynamism are embedded in the current literature on emergent states in groups. We use the concept of emergence as an organizing frame, building block, and critical lens, first summarizing key aspects of the extant literature on emergence, and then drawing four core characteristics of emergent phenomena from this literature. We use these characteristics to organize our review and examine how emergent states are portrayed in the past decade of groups literature. We end by exploring challenges to the development of a more dynamic perspective and by offering specific suggestions to guide and advance future work on groups and teams.     

ENDOGENOUS LOBBYING

In this article, we present a citizen‐candidate model of representative democracy with endogenous lobbying. We find that lobbying induces policy compromise and always affects equilibrium policy outcomes. In particular, even though the policy preferences of lobbies are relatively extreme, lobbying biases the outcome of the political process toward the center of the policy space, and extreme policies cannot emerge in equilibrium. Moreover, in equilibrium, not all lobbies participate in the policy‐making process. (JEL: D72, D74, D78)     

Corporate Political Activity and Firm Performance: The Moderating Effects of International and Product Diversification

Prior research has found that corporate political activity (CPA) can both positively and negatively impact firm performance. Combining agency theory with the resource-based view, we examine the relationship between domestic lobbying (a key form of CPA) and firm performance by explicating the moderating effects of international and product diversification. We argue that expansion into international and product markets increases a firm's resources and reduces agency costs in domestic lobbying. Our results, based on a sample of 737 firms, show that lobbying is positively associated with performance for firms that are diversified in both international markets and along product-lines; whereas lobbying is counter-productive for purely domestic and undiversified firms. Our results contribute to the literature on the firm performance implications of corporate political activity by highlighting the roles of international and product diversification.     

PROXYING FOR UNOBSERVABLE VARIABLES WITH INTERNET DOCUMENT‐FREQUENCY

The internet contains billions of documents. We show that document frequencies in large decentralized textual databases can capture the cross‐sectional variation in the occurrence frequencies of social phenomena. We characterize the econometric conditions under which such proxying is likely. We also propose using recently‐introduced internet search volume indexes as proxies for fundamental locational traits, and discuss their advantages and limitations. We then successfully proxy for a number of economic and demographic variables in US cities and states. We further obtain document‐frequency measures of corruption by country and US state and replicate the econometric results of previous research studying its covariates. Finally, we provide the first measure of corruption in American cities. Poverty, population size, service‐sector orientation, and ethnic fragmentation are shown to predict higher levels of corruption in urban America.     

Statistical Process Control and Condition‐Based Maintenance: A Meaningful Relationship through Data Sharing

This paper focuses on the close relationship between statistical process control and preventive maintenance (PM) of manufacturing equipment. The context is very general: a production process that is characterized by multiple distinct operational states and a failure state. The operational states differ in terms of operational/quality costs and/or the proneness to complete failure. The times of shift from the normal operational state to an inferior one and the times to failure are random variables, not necessarily exponentially distributed. The process is monitored with a control chart with the purpose of quickly detecting shifts to an inferior operational state due to the occurrence of some unobservable assignable cause. At the same time, the information collected from the process may be used to re‐schedule the planned PM, if there is evidence that a failure is imminent. The two mechanisms are obviously related, especially if they are based on measurements of the same critical process characteristic. Yet, they are typically treated independently. We develop a fairly general mathematical model for the joint optimization of the control chart parameters and the maintenance times. Numerical investigation using this model shows that ignoring the close relationship between process control and maintenance results in inefficiencies that may be substantial. It also provides practical insights about the effects of some key problem characteristics on the optimal joint design of process control and maintenance.     

Expertise-based lobbying and accounting regulation

It has long been recognised that accounting regulation is not a mere technical exercise but one that takes place in a political context and lobbying has been examined in numerous empirical studies. Most of these studies address lobbying of the accounting standard setter. However, standard setting is embedded in a political and institutional context. In their decision-making, these institutions depend on the expertise of potentially self-interested lobbyists. This expertise-provision element tends to be ignored in most lobbying studies. The present paper proposes an analytical model of lobbying of an accounting regulator that explicitly focuses on the provision of relevant information by lobbyists. It suggests that lobbying will generally be non-controversial, i.e. either those opposed to a standard will lobby or those favouring it, but not both. Analysis of the model furthermore implies an important role for the regulator’s ex ante leanings, both perceived and real, even when the regulator treats all information received impartially. This implies an important role for the institutional context of accounting regulation.     

Joint Stocking and Product Offer Decisions Under the Multinomial Logit Model

This article studies a joint stocking and product offer problem. We have access to a number of products to satisfy the demand over a finite selling horizon. Given that customers choose among the set of offered products according to the multinomial logit model, we need to decide which sets of products to offer over the selling horizon and how many units of each product to stock so as to maximize the expected profit. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear program, where the decision variables correspond to the stocking quantity for each product and the duration of time that each set of products is offered. This nonlinear program is intractable due to its large number of decision variables and its nonseparable and nonconcave objective function. We use the structure of the multinomial logit model to formulate an equivalent nonlinear program, where the number of decision variables is manageable and the objective function is separable. Exploiting separability, we solve the equivalent nonlinear program through a dynamic program with a two dimensional and continuous state variable. As the solution of the dynamic program requires discretizing the state variable, we study other approximate solution methods. Our equivalent nonlinear program and approximate solution methods yield insights for good offer sets.     

利率调整对我国股市不同状态波动性的影响

基于马尔可夫结构转换模型研究利率调整对我国股市在不同波动状态情况下波动性的影响,特别在2014年~2015年沪市波动为上涨和下跌状态下的影响.考虑股市波动存在结构转换及杠杆效应,选用马尔可夫结构转换EGARCH(RS-EGARCH)模型对上证综指进行收益和波动率建模.结果显示沪市在上涨状态利好消息与同等程度利空消息冲击具有相同影响;在下跌状态利空消息冲击比利好消息的影响更大,这异于通常的杠杆效应.通过在RS-EGARCH模型均值和波动率方程中引入虚拟变量研究自2012年时隔两年后首次利率调整对沪市波动性的影响,研究发现利率下调在沪市上涨状态显著增加了收益率和波动率;而在下跌状态收益率显著降低.但通过对比研究,在2006年的利率调整对于2006年~2008年期间沪市上涨和下跌状态的波动性没有显著影响.     

中国企业的游说行为及其伦理规范研究

游说是指企业通过各种途径与政府官员进行沟通,力求在政府政策和立法的制定和实施过程中反映本企业的利益和要求。企业的游说行为在本质上不是邪恶的,而是一种对社会负责的行为。文章首先通过理论分析建立了一个企业游说行为的框架,然后通过与十多位企业高层进行深度访谈,探讨了我国企业游说的途径及其潜规则。针对访谈中发现的伦理问题,分析了我国企业游说行为的伦理,提出了解决我国企业游说行为伦理问题的可行步骤。     

A political economy of accounting standard setting

In recent years accounting researchers have identified “political” lobbying as a problem for accounting standard setting. This paper presents a simple game-theoretic analysis of the political process to identify situations where companies have incentives to lobby the political principal instead of participating in the usual due process of accounting standard setting. Analysis of the model suggests that “political” lobbying is more likely to happen in the EU than in the US. Furthermore it is suggested that if the relevant standard setters wish to achieve harmonization of accounting standards between the EU and the US, European companies have more lobbying leverage than their American counterparts because there are more European veto players than American ones.     

An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects

The ability of quantile regression models to characterize the heterogeneous impact of variables on different points of an outcome distribution makes them appealing in many economic applications. However, in observational studies, the variables of interest (e.g., education, prices) are often endogenous, making conventional quantile regression inconsistent and hence inappropriate for recovering the causal effects of these variables on the quantiles of economic outcomes. In order to address this problem, we develop a model of quantile treatment effects (QTE) in the presence of endogeneity and obtain conditions for identification of the QTE without functional form assumptions. The principal feature of the model is the imposition of conditions that restrict the evolution of ranks across treatment states. This feature allows us to overcome the endogeneity problem and recover the true QTE through the use of instrumental variables. The proposed model can also be equivalently viewed as a structural simultaneous equation model with nonadditive errors, where QTE can be interpreted as the structural quantile effects (SQE).     

State versus Market: Contending Interests in the Struggle to Control French Accounting Standardisation

The paper concerns the struggle between different interest groups to control or significantly influence the objectives, institutional arrangements and processes of French accounting standardisation. Its particular focus of interest is the state agency established to deal with standardisation, namely the National Accounting Council, the Conseil National de la Comptabilité (CNC), and its predecessors. The period addressed spans from 1941 to the present, marked by the first attempt to implement a national accounting code, adoption of the initial post-war code in 1947 and subsequent revisions.The paper identifies and examines the role played by the French state in establishing an institutional structure for accounting standardisation and in seeking to influence operation of that structure as a means to achieve a concertation of diverse social and economic interest groups with an interest in accounting standards. The objective for the process from the viewpoint of the state has been seen as the intended dominance of certain interests of state over other interests, whether public sector or otherwise. In the course of time, the dominant interests of the state have changed in the face of changing expectations about the role of financial accounting and reporting in the financial life of France. The role of the state is seen to have come under increasing pressure from private sector interests in France and externally. Particular attention is given to the 1996–8 major reforms to the CNC and associated new regulatory structure.The possibility is assessed of whether and under what terms the French approach to accounting standardisation can be sustained, grounded as it is in a profound attachment by the state to the values of the Etat colbertiste.     

Health care trends, Part 2. The new health care team. Panel discussion

In Part 2 of this third annual panel discussion, six experts talk about the growing diversity of health care providers and what it means for consumers and physicians. Americans are getting their wellness and health care services from a wider variety of non-physician practitioners than ever before. The number of allied health and alternative providers with direct patient access is likely to continue growing. This trend is being driven by consumer demand, by the lobbying efforts of non-physician providers, and by federal, state, and private payers who see the potential for reduced health care spending, greater consumer satisfaction, and better outcomes. In practice, this means physicians and non-physician providers, some of whom may not be sanctioned by the medical establishment, are obligated to collaborate as a team. Members of this new provider team will have to communicate effectively (with each other, with consumers, and with payers) and make evidence-based clinical decisions. Physicians may have to share decision-making with other members of this new health care team.     

产业结构、技术进步、对外开放程度与单位GDP能耗——基于省级面板数据和协整方法

运用面板协整技术研究各影响因素对中国各省区单位GDP能耗的影响方向和影响强度,面板单位根检验和协整检验表明,全国各区域单位GDP能耗和各影响因素均为一阶单整变量,存在协整关系。协整方程表明,产业结构对单位GDP能耗的负影响东北最大,中部最小,西部为正影响;技术进步对单位GDP能耗的负影响东部最大,西部其次,中部最低;对外开放程度对单位GDP能耗的负影响西部最大,东北最小,中部为正影响。误差修正模型表明,东北调整到均衡状态的速度最快。根据实证结果,建议由此在制定"十二五"节能降耗目标时应该分区域实行不同的降耗目标和实现路径。     

Estimation of a Dynamic Auction Game

This paper proposes an estimation method for a repeated auction game under the presence of capacity constraints. The estimation strategy is computationally simple as it does not require solving for the equilibrium of the game. It uses a two stage approach. In the first stage the distribution of bids conditional on state variables is estimated using data on bids, bidder characteristics, and contract characteristics. In the second stage, an expression of the expected sum of future profits based on the distribution of bids is obtained, and costs are inferred based on the first order condition of optimal bids. We apply the estimation method to repeated highway construction procurement auctions in the state of California between May 1996 and May 1999. In this market, previously won uncompleted contracts reduce the probability of winning further contracts. We quantify the effect of intertemporal constraints on bidders' costs and on bids. Due to the intertemporal effect and also to bidder asymmetry, the auction can be inefficient. Based on the estimates of costs, we quantify efficiency losses.