Time use in child care and housework and the total cost of children

The use of time for child care and housework among Swedish families is investigated. We allow the effect of children on child care and housework to vary by age of the child and also by whether the child is cared for outside the home or not. Our estimates allow us to compute the total cost of children in the form of the cost of time, and the cost of goods, services and housing.The result shows that time used for child care decreases sharply with the age of the child but this is not the case for time used for other housework. Considerable economies of scale is found to prevail for time used for child care. Child care outside the home reduces time use for other housework but the effect on time used for child care is quite small. For the average family time use cost make up more than half of total child cost. Our estimates indicate that decreased time use cost for children caused by care outside the home are not very different from a typical parental fee for public day care.This research was supported by a grant from the Swedish Council of Social Research (SFR). We thank Lennart Flood for useful comments on an earlier version.     

The Distribution of Sums of Rounded Percentages

When percentages are computed for counts in several categories or for several positive measurements0 each taken as a fraction of their sum, the rounded percentages often fail to add to 100 percent. We investigate how frequently this failure occurs and what the distributions of sums of rounded percentages are for (1) an empirical set of data, (2) the multinomial distribution in small samples, (3) spacings between points dropped on an interval-the broken-stick model-; and (4) for simulation for several categories. The several methods produce similar distributions.We find that the probability that the sum of rounded percentages adds to exactly 100 percent is certain for two categories, about three-fourths for three categories, about two-thirds for four categories, and about [Formula: see text] for larger numbers of categories, c, on the average when categories are not improbable.     

Inklusion durch Anerkennung

As common and plausible chronic diseases are for providing the rationale and relevance of preventive and rehabilitative interventions by the public health and nursing professions they do little to shape the every day practice and research of the health professions. Chronic diseases are often not treated as chronic but as either temporary crises or stable handicaps thereby ignoring the identity problems these people must contend with. While during the post 200 years respect for individual identity and approval for services have been kept distinct coping with the problems faced by those with chronic diseases have blurred the distinction between need for recognition and need for service. The blurring of the lines of distinction between need for recognition and the need for services is proven by a) the development of international standards of diagnoses and b) by the struggle of the welfare state against inequality in the face of chronic disease and death. This causes problems not only for the society but also for the chronically ill which should be analyzed within a theory of recognition.     

New estimates of the vital rates of the United States black population during the nineteenth century

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m (0)) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.     

Race Differences in Sexual Behavior and Their Demographic Implications

Differences between blacks and whites in sexual behavior posited in Rushton's theory of r-K race differences were examined in the United States in an analysis of the annual surveys of the National Opinion Research Center for 1990–1996. This data set was analysed for black-white differences in numbers of sexual partners during the last 5 years and for frequency of sexual intercourse. The general pattern of the results was for blacks to report more sexual partners than whites and for black males to report greater frequency of sexual intercourse, consistent with Rushton's theory. This result has implications for the control of the AIDS epidemic and for the demographic transition among blacks.     

Migration and fertility in Puerto Rico

Abstract In an investigation based on special tabulations of the 25 per cent sample from the 1960 Census of Population for Puerto Rico, it is found that migration experience tends to be associated with fertility for various marital statuses, including consensual unions, and for rural, urban and metropolitan residence. The findings cannot be attributed to variations in age composition among the various categories as age standardization and age-specificcomparisons yield similar results. However, it is also found that rural-urban and consensually-legally mated differentials in fertility cannot be accounted for by variations in the migration variables that are examined. Thus, consistently higher fertility is found for non-migrants than for migrants; for consensually mated than for legally married and for rural than for urban or metropolitan residents. With a single exception, women in consensual unions, fertility is lower for women in the San Juan metropolitan area than in the other urban areas.     

外出务工对农村老年人家庭子女养老分工影响研究

文章利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2009年在安徽省巢湖市进行的＂安徽省老年人生活福利状况＂抽样调查数据,采用多元Logistic回归分析了农村老年人家庭儿子与女儿外出务工状况对子女兄弟姐妹养老分工的影响。结果表明,外出务工对子女养老分工有显著影响,并且儿子和女儿外出务工的影响存在显著性别差异。儿子全部外出务工,子女之间倾向不平均分担对老年父母的经济支持,女儿全部外出务工,子女之间倾向于共同平均分担经济支持;儿子全部外出务工或女儿全部外出务工,子女之间都倾向于不给予老年父母生活照料。     

A sociological approach to counseling homosexual clients and their families

Stigma lies at the root of many problems typically experienced by homosexual clients and their families. Sociological theory and research shed light on the dynamics of stigma and its consequences, both for the stigmatized population and for their heterosexual families and associates. This article summarizes key sociological research on the nature and development of sexual orientation. It considers the dynamics of homophobia and its implications for homosexual youngsters and their families. It offers practical tips for helping clients to understand their own or a family member's homosexual orientation, for coping with stigma, for reconciling issues of religion and morality, and for determining lifestyle. Suggestions for therapist office materials are also included.     

New techniques in small area population estimates by demographic characteristics

The increasing demand for small area population estimates calls for both innovative ways of using existing data and new techniques suitable for small area estimates. This paper explores the methods for population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin at the census tract level for Multnomah County, Oregon. New techniques include employing building permits to indirectly estimate migration and examining the changes in age/sex structure using the American Community Survey (ACS). A practical method for bridging the race categories is also developed. Finally, the paper discusses some reflections on small area estimates and the potentials of using ACS to track the changes of the demographic characteristics for the sub-county level.     

Estimation of sample size of population survey]

Depending on the different purposes of population surveys, different sample sizes are required for accurate results. Using statistical methods, sample sizes for different types of population surveys for the Chinese population are estimated. Thus, to insure at least 90% accuracy, a sample size of 830,000 is required for marriage and birth rates and a sample size of 7.8 million for population age distribution. For population surveys on age specific death rates, a sample size of 56.32 million is required for a 1-year retrospective study and a sample size of 11.26 million required for a 5-year retrospective study. In the past, certain population studies were undertaken with no consideration for sampling errors. Sample sizes for surveys on age specific death rates and population age distribution were too small, leading to results that did not represent the total population. On the other hand, sample sizes for marriage and birth conditions were too large, resulting in waste in manpower, materials, and time. Statistical calculations are given.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

The effect of undercount on the accuracy of small-area population estimates: Implications for the use of administrative data for improving population enumeration

The effects of underenumeration on the accuracy of alternative methods of population estimation have not been sufficiently analyzed. Although the US Bureau of the Census has decided not to adjust either the counts or its estimates for underenumeration in 1990, the extent to which local population estimates may account for underenumeration is of importance both for those who may wish to adjust existing estimates and in anticipation of future census adjustments. This paper examines the accuracy of small-area population estimation methods with and without adjustment. Mean Percent Errors, Mean Absolute Percent Errors, and Mean Percent Absolute Differences between local estimates for 1990 and 1990 adjusted and unadjusted census counts are computed. Population estimates for 1990 made using housing unit, ratio correlation, and component methods are compared for 451 counties and 2,633 places in the states of California, Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin. An analysis of the data for counties shows little indication that local estimates more accurately estimate the adjusted than the unadjusted population counts. The results for places show clear improvements in accuracy for places in Florida and Texas. Implications of the findings for issues related to undercount adjustment and local population estimates are discussed.     

Methodology for studying discrimination based on sexual orientation and social sex-role stereotypes

This article presents the methodology used in collecting data for the study of the relationship of sexual orientation and social sex-role to the protection of civil liberties. The methodology is designed to determine how departures in sexual orientation and social sex-role are the basis for the abridgment of civil liberties. Departure in sexual orientation is defined as physical sexual activity involving individuals of the same sex. Departure in social sex-role stereotypes is defined as departing from or conforming to the feminine stereotype for men, the feminine stereotype for women, the masculine sterotype for men, and the masculine stereotype for women.     

Using social indicators to forecast partisan alignments in congressional election years

This paper presents five forecasting equations for political party alignments in the United States during the post-World War II period. Time series data published by various public and survey organizations are utilized to estimate for the years 1948–1974 for party identifications and results of elections for the House of Representatives. The observed equations explain from 86–93% of the variance for the years 1948–1974 and usually allow acceptance of the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation of disturbances. These equations are then employed to make forecasts of the 1976 election year alignments which are compared to observed values. The forecasting equations for 1976 are generally successful, for example, missing the congressional alignments by nine House seats. Some contingent forecasts are made for 1978 election year alignments, based upon certain alternative assumptions about economic and political climates. The equations do not intend to test new theories but rather to apply fairly simple ideas to forecasting trends in public opinion. The authors argue that forecasting equations are useful for anticipating future trends, for planning future research and for assessing whether an unusual event is manifesting itself or alternatively whether a certain trend in public opinion is to be expected from normal processes.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: A contingent relationship

Trends in age-specific suicide rates relate to debates about the consequences of population aging and changes in cohort size for social well-being. Easterlin argues that large cohort size increases suicide rates by reducing relative income; Preston claims that suicide rates fall in large cohorts with high levels of political and social power. To integrate these competing arguments, this paper uses aggregate data on 18 high-income nations from 1953 to 1986 to demonstrate that the direction and strength of the relationship between cohort size and suicide depend on (1) age of the cohort, (2) gender, (3) national context, and (4) time period. The results show that large cohort size raises suicide for the young and middle-aged, but reduces it for the elderly. Also, the effects of cohort size prove stronger for men than for women, for nations with less collectivist institutions than for nations with more collectivist institutions, and for the 1950s and 1960s than for the 1970s and 1980s.     

The longevity of Jews in Canada, 1940–1942

A life table for the Jewish population of Canada, based upon their mortality experience during 1940–2, yielded an average length of life (expectation of life at birth) of 67–53 years for males and 69·89 years for females. These figures are greater than those for the general population of Canada by 4·58 years for males and 3·60 years for females. These margins decrease with advance in age; the expectations of life for Jews and for the total Canadian population are equal at age 25 in the case of females, and at age 35 in the case of males.

Jewish infants in Canada start life with a mortality rate, in the first year, only two-fifths of that for the general population. This advantage for Jews is observed through childhood, adolescence, and early maturity. However, the margin between the Jewish and total populations decreased with advance in age until, shortly after age 50, the Jews begin to show the higher mortality rates.

The Jewish populations of the United States and of Canada have great similarities in their social and economic structures. They also share, very largely, in their European origins, and they have come to North America during the same period. It is, therefore, a fair assumption that the longevity and mortality characteristics of the relatively small Jewish population of Canada may be indicative of what might be found for the millions of Jews in the United States, for whom such information is not available.     

Can concern for the long-term care of older parents explain son preference at birth in India?

This study examines whether concern for the long-term care of older parents is the primary reason for son preference in India. Controlling for important socioeconomic factors that are believed to affect son preference, we find that concern for long-term care is the principal cause of son preference in India. Sons serve as the primary caregivers to elderly parents, while daughters are mostly engaged in caring for parents-in-law. This trend is more acute in rural than in urban areas. Our study also finds a strong implication of the filial relationship for the long-term care of elderly parents.     

Living conditions among the poor in four rich countries

The share of income going to the poorest 10% of Americans is much smaller than the share of income going to the poorest 10% of Canadians, Swedes, or Germans (before unification). However, comparisons across countries of the distribution of housing conditions, consumer durables, health, and visits to the doctor and dentist suggest that compared to the average person in their country, low-income Americans are no worse off than low-income residents of other countries. But these conclusions partly depend on how income is adjusted for family size. Americans whose incomes are low for a long time may suffer more material deprivation than Canadians whose incomes are low for a long time. Conclusions about economic well-being based on current income may not rank nations the same as comparisons based on deprivation in living conditions.The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, The Russell Sage Foundation, the National Science Foundation and a Small Grant from the Institute for Research on Poverty provided funding for various stages of this project. I am indebted to Christopher Jencks and two anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. I am also indebted to Larry Radbill who provided computer programing for the United States and Swedish data and valuable technical suggestions. Monica Ardelt provided computer programing and technical assistance for the German data. Johan Fritzel provided technical assistance for the Swedish data and David Rhodes, Karen Rolf, and Tim Veenstra provided computer programing for the Unites States data.     

A method for calculating rates of induced abortion

Accurate measurement of induced abortion is necessary for understanding the fertility dynamics of a population and for making projections about the future. Changes in abortion rates can amplify or dampen the impact of changes in contraception. This paper presents a methodology for calculating marital induced abortion rates from observed marital fertility and contraceptive prevalence and for modeling the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on future fertility. The methodology is validated against observed abortion complications in three populations, and the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on expected fertility is demonstrated.