The reporting of sensitive behavior by adolescents: A methodological experiment in Kenya

Does audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) produce more valid reporting of sexual activity and related behaviors than face-to-face interviews or self-administered interviews? This analysis, based on data collected from over 6,000 unmarried adolescents in two districts of Kenya—Nyeri and Kisumu—indicates substantial and significant differences in reported rates of premarital sex across interview modes, although not always in the expected direction. Our assumption that girls underreport sexual activity in face-to-face interviews by comparison with ACASI is not confirmed by the Nyeri data, but our results from Kisumu are considerably more promising. As for boys, who we believe exaggerate their level of sexual activity in face-to-face interviews, a more nuanced set of expectations regarding the reporting of sensitive behaviors was offered; our results from Kisumu, although not always significant, by and large conform to expectations.

     

Productivity of Older Workers: Perceptions of Employers and Employees

What determines the perceived productivity of the older worker and how does this perception compare to the perception of the productivity of the younger worker? In this study we present evidence based on data from Dutch employers and employees. Productivity perceptions are affected by one's age and one's position in the hierarchy. The young favor the young, the old favor the old, and employers value the productivity of workers less than employees do. However, there are also remarkable similarities across employers and employees. By distinguishing the various dimensions that underlie the productivity of younger and older workers, we tested whether soft qualities and abilities—e.g., reliability and commitment—are just as important as hard qualities—cognitive and physically based skills—in the eyes of both employers and employees. It appears that both employers and employees, young and old, view hard skills as far more important than soft skills.     

Raising charitable children: the effects of verbal socialization and role-modeling on children’s giving

This paper uses nationally-representative data from the PSID and CDS to estimate the causal effects of two parent socialization actions—talking to children about giving and role-modeling—on children’s decisions whether or not to give to charity. We develop an identification framework based on the intra-household allocation and cultural transmission literatures that shows how different assumptions about parental response to time-varying unobserved changes in children’s prosocial values can be combined with the child fixed effects estimate and the difference between siblings’ over-time-differences estimate to infer a bound on the causal effect of parental action to socialize their children. Under the identifying assumption we think is most reasonable for socializing the willingness to give to charity, that parents treat the socialization actions of others as cultural substitutes, our estimates imply that talking to children about giving raises the probability of children’s giving by at least .13. We find no evidence that parental role-modeling affects children’s giving, except among non-African-American girls. The identification framework and substantive results have implications for those with a general interest in using data from naturalistic settings to estimate causal effects of parental socialization actions, those interested in the external validity of laboratory findings, and those interested in the socialization of warm glow.     

Urban determinants of racial differentiation in infant mortality

This study relates differential socioeconomic status between blacks and whites to racial differentiation in infant mortality rates. The basic assumption is that decreases in socioeconomic differentiation and related variables lead to decreases in the black—white infant mortality differential. A comparative approach based on aggregate measures of socioeconomic differentiation is utilized to compare sixty-one United States urban places. Path analysis shows that neonatal mortality differentiation is virtually unaffected by socioeconomic differentials while decreased racial differences in hospital births tend to increase neonatal mortality differentiation. In contrast, postneonatal differentiation is affected by socioeconomic differentiation, especially along the dimensions of income, education, and regional location. It is concluded that despite some suggestions that infant mortality is no longer responsive to socioeconomic factors, postneonatal differentation is affected by socioeconomic differentials when comparison is based on city units.     

Uncertainties in the Composition of World Population in the Twenty‐First Century

Past interest in long‐range global population projections has been almost exclusively centered on future population size and, to some extent, on changes in the age structure. Uncertainties concerning future demographic dynamics are typically dealt with by preparing multiple projections, distinguished by differing fertility trajectories ranging from high to low. The usual assumption, that the constituting units of the global population— countries and regions—all follow the same variant projection (such as high or low), masks another potential uncertainty of future population dynamics: uncertainty in the composition of the global total by the relative sizes of its constituting units. Using a set of long‐range population projections covering the period 2000–2100, this note explores plausible ranges of this uncertainty with reference to six constituting units of the global population.     

Living Arrangements and the Elderly: An Analysis of Old-Age Mortality by Household Structure in Casalguidi, 1819–1859

The elevated levels of protection, assistance, and care enjoyed by the elderly living in complex households has long been a key assumption of many family system theories. However, although this hypothesis has been demonstrated for contemporary contexts, quantitative evidence for past populations is particularly scarce, if not nonexistent. This article investigates the relationship between old-age mortality and living arrangements in a mid–nineteenth century Tuscan population, where the joint family system of sharecroppers coexisted alongside the nuclear system of day laborers. Our findings demonstrate that within complex households, the complexity of relationships, gender inequalities, and possible competition for care and resources among the most vulnerable household members—namely, the elderly and the young—weakens the assumption that the elderly benefitted from lower rates of old-age mortality.     

The Educational Consequences of Teen Childbearing

A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers. The magnitude of educational consequences is therefore uncertain, despite voluminous policy and prevention efforts that rest on the assumption of a negative and presumably causal effect. This study adjudicates between two potential sources of inconsistency in the literature—methodological differences or cohort differences—by using a single, high-quality data source: namely, The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We replicate analyses across four different statistical strategies: ordinary least squares regression; propensity score matching; and parametric and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate educational consequences of teen childbearing, with estimated effects between 0.7 and 1.9 fewer years of schooling among teen mothers. We select our preferred estimate (0.7), derived from semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation, on the basis of weighing the strengths and limitations of each approach. Based on the range of estimated effects observed in our study, we speculate that variable statistical methods are the likely source of inconsistency in the past. We conclude by discussing implications for future research and policy, and recommend that future studies employ a similar multimethod approach to evaluate findings.     

Value Priorities of Younger and Older Adults in Seven European Countries

This paper addresses the question of whether the value priorities of older and younger adults differ, and if so, whether the pattern of differences is similar in countries with different experience of economic, political and social change. The data from the 2008 wave from ESS about responses to a 21-item version of the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ, Schwartz 2003) were used to compare value priorities in younger (under 30 years) and older adults from five East-Central European countries—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Russia—and two relatively stable Nordic welfare states—Finland and Sweden. The study found a clear general trend for younger adults toward Openness to Change and Self-Enhancement on the two value dimensions. Age group differences were more pronounced in East-Central countries, and on Conservation—Openness to Change dimension. Younger people from different countries had more similar values than older adults in regard to the importance placed on Openness to Change. The discussion focused on possible reasons of the findings such as the different effect of societal change on value priorities of people from different age groups.     

The potential impact of comparative effectiveness research on U.S. Health Care expenditures

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has the potential to slow health care spending growth by focusing resources on health interventions that provide the most value. In this article, we discuss issues surrounding CER and its implementation and apply these methods to a salient clinical example: treatment of prostate cancer. Physicians have several options for treating patients recently diagnosed with localized disease, including removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy), treatment with radioactive seeds (brachytherapy), radiation therapy (IMRT), or—if none of these are pursued—active surveillance. Using a commercial health insurance claims database and after adjustment for comorbid conditions, we estimate that the additional cost of treatment with radical prostatectomy is $7,300, while other alternatives are more expensive—$19,000 for brachytherapy and $46,900 for IMRT. However, a review of the clinical literature uncovers no evidence that justifies the use of these more expensive approaches. These results imply that if patient management strategies were shifted to those supported by CER-based criteria, an estimated $1.7 to $3.0 billion (2009 present value) could be saved each year.     

Trust in American Government: Longitudinal Measurement Equivalence in the ANES, 1964–2008

For over 50 years (1958–2012) the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey has been measuring citizens’ evaluations of the trustworthiness of the “government in Washington”—an indicator that has been widely used to monitor the dynamics of political trust in the US over time. However, a critical assumption in using attitudinal constructs for longitudinal research is that the meaning-and-interpretation of such items should be comparable across groups of respondents at any one point in time and across samples over time. Using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis for ordered-categorical data, we test the measurement equivalence assumption with data collected by the ANES from 1964 to 2008. The results confirm that the ANES’ political trust scale has the same basic factorial structure over time. But for two key items, several threshold parameters were found to be different across time points, indicating that the meaning-and-interpretation of these questions, and especially the question about whether the government in Washington wastes money that people pay in taxes, varies significantly over time.

     

Measuring subjective well-being: Unfolding the Bradburn Affect Balance Scale

Factor analysis of the items in the Bradburn Affect Balance Scale has repeatedly shown that the positive and negative affect items are unrelated. Despite this, negative affect scores are routinely subtracted from positive affect scores to derive Affect Balance Scale Scores that apparently provide a valid measure of a sense of well-being. In this paper we offer a resolution to this paradox — and so justify the use of Affect Balance Scale Scores — by showing that the positive and negative affect items each form a single cumulative scale, and that the two cumulative scales taken together form one unidimensional unfolding scale. This explanation is based on a hypothesis by Coombs and Kao (1960) — later proved mathematically by Ross and Cliff (1964) — that when data that are unfoldable in r dimensions are factor-analyzed, r+1 significant factors will be found. In an empirical test, Bradburn Affect Balance Scale data collected from ten countries in the 1981 and 1990 European Values Study surveys were analyzed. The results clearly support the hypothesis that the data form a single unidimensional unfolding scale, although two of the ten Affect Balance Scale items are not homogenous with the rest.     

A New Approach to the Study of Tolerance: Conceptualizing and Measuring Acceptance,Respect, and Appreciation of Difference

Previous empirical research on tolerance suffers from a number of shortcomings, the most serious being the conceptual and operational conflation of (in)tolerance and prejudice. We design research to remedy this. First, we contribute to the literature by advancing research that distinguishes analytically between the two phenomena. We conceptualize tolerance as a value orientation towards difference. This definition—which is abstract and does not capture attitudes towards specific out-groups, ideas, or behaviors—allows for the analysis of tolerance within and between societies. Second, we improve the measurement of tolerance by developing survey items that are consistent with this conceptualization. We administer two surveys, one national (Sweden) and one cross-national (Australia, Denmark, Great Britain, Sweden, and the United States). Results from structural equation models show that tolerance is best understood as a three-dimensional concept, which includes acceptance of, respect for, and appreciation of difference. Analyses show that measures of tolerance have metric invariance across countries, and additional tests demonstrate convergent and discriminant validity. We also assess tolerance’s relationship to prejudice and find that only an appreciation of difference has the potential to reduce prejudice. We conclude that it is not only possible to measure tolerance in a way that is distinct from prejudice but also necessary if we are to understand the causes and consequences of tolerance.

     

Ethnic diversity and well-being

This paper investigates how ethnic diversity, measured by immigrants’ nationalities, influences the well-being of the host country. Using panel data from Germany from 1998 to 2012, we find a positive effect of ethnic diversity on the well-being of German natives. Our finding is robust to alternative definitions of ethnic diversity and to the non-random selection of natives and immigrants into regions. The positive effect of ethnic diversity is stronger for immigrant groups that are culturally and economically closer to Germany. Consistent with this result, we document the existence of two mechanisms explaining the influence of ethnic diversity on well-being: productivity—as captured by immigrants’ skills and assimilation—and social capital—particularly in relation to the creation of a multicultural environment.     

A Regional Development Index for Portugal

In a report from 2008 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development came to the conclusion that Portugal is a country still very much marked by regional asymmetries and in need of better regional governance mechanisms and policies. We propose a regional development index for Portugal at the NUTS III level, based on the methodology of the human development index (HDI) from the United Nations Development Programme, which will be helpful to assess the evolution of the asymmetries between regions and evaluate the need for regional policy. Results show us a country that has most of the highest ranked NUTS III regions positioned along the coastline, although some interior NUTS III regions improved their relative positions in the ranking between 2004 and 2009. In addition to the three traditional dimensions of the HDI—income, education, and health—we include two more, given their increasing importance in the literature that criticizes the HDI and suggests the inclusion of new variables—governance and environment. Results show some considerable differences when we add the environment dimension: the interior regions improve their relative positions in the ranking, but in terms of governance they change little. Results also show that there is still the need for regional policy, although the dispersion in the ranking between the best and worst positioned NUTS III regions has decreased in all dimensions except education.     

Gender differences in poverty among single people in Denmark

This study — based on data from the Danish Welfare Survey of 1986, covering 461 single women and 319 single men — showns that single women have a potential higher risk than single men of becoming poor even when the sexes are categorized by household status, age and relationship to the labour market. These results suggest that the most important reason for higher risk of poverty among women than among single men is not — as often supposed — whether women are single, with or without children, but that gender as such discriminates as to poverty via the different ways men and women are linked to the labour market, This would apparently confirm that which, indirectly, was indicated by previous research on poverty.     

Son Preference and the Persistence of Culture: Evidence from South and East Asian Immigrants to Canada

Preference for sons over daughters, evident in China's and South Asia's male sex ratios, is commonly rationalized by poverty and the need for old‐age support. In this article we study South and East Asian immigrants to Canada, a group for whom the economic imperative to select sons is largely absent. Analyzing the 2001 and 2006 censuses, 20 percent samples, we find clear evidence of extensive sex selection in favor of boys at higher parities among South and East Asian immigrants unless they are Christian or Muslim. The latter finding accords with the explicit prohibition against (female) infanticide—traditionally the main sex‐selection method—in these religions. Our findings point to a strong cultural component to both the preference for sons and the willingness to resort to induced abortion based on sex.     

Making the Housing Unit Method Work: An Evaluation of 2010 Population Estimates in Florida

The housing unit (HU) method—in which population estimates are derived from estimates of occupied HUs—is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. It is widely used because it is conceptually simple, can utilize a wide variety of data sources, can be applied at virtually any level of geography, and often produces reliable estimates. Yet the HU method is more nearly a general approach to population estimation than it is a specific methodology. In this paper, we describe and evaluate several data sources and estimation techniques that can be used in applying the HU method. Using a set of county and subcounty estimates produced by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida for April 1, 2010, we analyze errors by population size and growth rate, calculate errors for each of the three components of the HU method, and investigate the accuracy of estimates based on several different data sources and estimation techniques. We compare the accuracy of the 2010 estimates with previous BEBR estimates and estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. We conclude that although some data sources and estimation techniques work better than others, the HU method can be tailored to produce reliable population estimates for a wide variety of geographic areas.     

Collective preferences as predictors of interstate migration

The comparison of objective and subjective social indicators can be illuminated by comparing their relations to individual choice, of which migration is an important instance. We have replicated for U.S. states Lowry's (1966) regression model of migration among SMSA's, and added an indirect subjective measure of quality of life in each state. This measure is based on a Gallup survey asking respondents about their preferences among states of the United States as places to live. A measure of collective preference for each state, as viewed by outsiders, is constructed from these responses. This new variable increases R ² from 0.798 to 0.828, and is itself predicted with an R ² of only 0.355 by objective variables. Objective indicators of well-being had increased R ² only from 0.762 to 0.798. We conclude that collective preferences — the subjective measure we have used — play an independent part in predicting migration.     

Chinese population prospects projection]

Production of population and goods are closely related, mutually restricted, and should be included in our economic plan. Population projection is important in implementation and study of population policy. It is also the foundation of population regulations. Assuming 2 children per couple the population growth rate will be 1% in 1985 and .6% in the year 2000. Therefore, we cannot realize our goal of .5% population growth rate by 1985 and 0% by 2000. A 9% annual growth rate of national production will be required to reach our goal of $1000 U.S. per capita income by the year 2000, a goal that history proves is difficult to achieve. 2 children per couple, therefore, cannot meet our urgent requirements of modernization and educational improvement. A 2nd assumption of 90% single child families after 1 year would yield an average annual population growth rate of .38% in 1985 and .012% in the year 2000. This assumption leads to a rapid population decrease, too rapid for most to accept the change. The 3rd assumption is a gradual increase in single child families to 50% in 1985 and 90% in the year 2000. The resulting growth rates will be .5% in 1983 and near 0% in the year 2000. The projected population boom from 1987 to 1996 will be decreased to an annual increase of .4-.5%. This assumption provides time for people to understand and recognize the importance of the policy. It meets the requirements of modernization and will help improve China's educational and living standards. All 3 assumptions were based on 3 children per couple for minorities.