Migration and premarital childbearing among Puerto Rican women

This paper examines the relationship between migration and premarital childbearing in a highly migratory Latino subgroup, Puerto Rican women. Using pooled origin-destination data from surveys conducted in Puerto Rico and in the New York metropolitan area, we find that first- and second-generation migrants to the u.s. mainland face substantially higher risks of conceiving and bearing a first child before marriage than do nonmigrants in Puerto Rico. This pattern is due largely to the relatively early transition to sexual activity among mainland women. Given the negative long-term consequences of premarital childbearing for women and their children, our findings call into question the assumption that migrants necessarily experience only positive outcomes as a result of the assimilation process.     

The role of sterilization in controlling Puerto Rican fertility

Abstract This paper provides evidence that the prevalence of female sterilization in Puerto Rica has increased substantially in recent years. It is estimated that about one-third of all Puerto Rican mothers aged 20 to 49 in 1965 were sterilized. This estimate is based on data from an island-wide survey in 1965 (Master Sample Survey of Health and Welfare). Additional data from this and other sources are analysed, leading to the conclusion that sterilization, rather than any other means of fertility control, was largely responsible for the decline in Puerto Rican fertility since 1950.     

Labor market structure and fertility differences among Puerto Rican women: The effects of economic and social policies on opportunity costs

The oft-observed inverse relationship between economic activity in the formal or informal sector and levels of fertility is attributed to the opportunity costs of reproduction. The economic and social policies that initiate and maintain the substantial flow of federal transfer payments to the Puerto Rican population is likely to reduce the opportunity costs among women participating in the informal economy; therefore, informal labor market participants will have fertility levels more like women who have never worked than like women active in the formal labor market. Using data from the 1982 Puerto Rican Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, this paper compares fertility differentials among ever-married women who have never worked, who have ever worked in the informal economy, and who have only worked in the formal economy. Contrary to expectations, the fertility levels of informal labor market participants are more like those of formal labor market participants; economic activity in either sector is associated with bearing fewer children. Federal transfer payments do not appear to reduce the opportunity costs of reproduction among women employed in the informal economy. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1989 meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Patterns of Entry into Cohabitation and Marriage Among Mainland Puerto Rican Women*

This paper adds to our limited knowledge of racial and ethnic variation in union formation by describing and analyzing the first unions of mainland Puerto Rican women. Retrospective history data show that Puerto Ricans have shared in the post-1970 shift toward cohabitation. Puerto Rican women, however, are much more likely to enter informal first unions than the general population, and have a low propensity to transform informal unions into legal marriages. The paper examines the influence of family background and current activities on union timing and type. The relationship between partner attributes and the choice between formal and informal coupling is also considered.     

Early life exposures and the occurrence and timing of heart disease among the older adult Puerto Rican population

Few studies have examined the effects of early life conditions on the timing of the onset of heart disease. We use the remarkable example of a representative sample of the population of older Puerto Ricans aged 60– 74 who lived in the countryside during childhood (n = 1,438) to examine the effects of seasonal exposures to poor nutrition and infectious diseases during late gestation on the timing of the onset and the probability of ever experiencing adult heart disease. Cox and log logistic hazard models controlling for childhood conditions (self-reported childhood health status and socioeconomic status [SES], rheumatic fever, and knee height) and adult risk factors (adult SES, obesity, smoking, texercise, and self-reported diabetes) showed that the risk of onset of heart disease was 65% higher among those born during high-exposure periods compared with unexposed individuals. However, there were no significant differences in median time of onset for those ever experiencing heart disease. As a comparison, we found that there were no significant seasonality effects for those who lived in urban areas during childhood. We conclude that early exposures in utero have important ramifications for adult heart disease among the older Puerto Rican population. We show, however, that while exposure is associated with the probability of ever experiencing adult heart disease, it is not associated with the timing of onset among those who do experience it.     

The effects of welfare and child support policies on union formation

We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.     

The effects of welfare and child support policies on union formation

We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.     

Migration is the Driving Force of Rapid Aging in Puerto Rico: A Research Brief

Population Research and Policy Review - The combined effects of declining fertility and increased longevity have accelerated population aging in different parts of the world. Unlike other...     

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed.     

The impact of mass media family planning promotion on contraceptive behavior of women in Ghana

This paper examines the influence of media messages about family planning, and attitudes toward media promotion of family planning, on contraceptive behavior of married women in Ghana. It also examines the problem of reverse causation that arises in studies of this nature when the data used provide no information on the temporal order of the actual time that respondents were exposed to family planning information in the mass media and the time of adoption of contraceptive behavior. The results show that exposure to media messages on contraception exerts strong impact on current practice of, and intention to use, contraception. Women who had heard or seen advert on contraceptive brands, and women who favor broadcast of family planning messages in the media, are significantly more likely to adopt birth control behavior than women who had not heard or seen, and women who do not favor broadcast of such media messages, respectively. Regarding the problem of reverse causation, the study demonstrates that while being exposed to media messages significantly affects a woman's contraceptive behavior, the reverse does not seem to be the case. The policy implications of these results and how mass media could be used to promote family planning in Ghana are discussed.     

Spatial Variation In Migration Processes And Development: A Costa Rican Example Of Conventional Modeling Augmented By The Expansion Method

The ways in which migration and development have been linked in previous research in Third World settings are reviewed. Intercantonal migration in Costa Rica is analyzed, first in terms of a conventional model and then in terms of a paradigm of migration that focuses on place-to-place variations in development milieu. The results show there is spatial variation in the role of most variables and that these variations follow a reasonably consistent pattern with regard to development conditions. A series of maps graphically illustrates the importance of a spatial frame of reference.     

The influence of the family on premarital sexual attitudes and behavior

This research has expanded our understanding of the determinants of adolescent sexuality in several directions. We have used a study of mothers and children to construct and estimate a model of the intergenerational transmission of sexual attitudes and behavior. With data collected from both mothers and children, we were able to proceed further than most past research and to consider both the attitudes and behaviors of mothers as reported by the mothers themselves. These data permitted an investigation of the determinants of maternal attitudes concerning adolescent sexuality as well as an examination of the influences of the attitudes and experiences of mothers on the attitudes, perceptions, and behavior of children. Obviously, limiting the study to white families prevents generalization of our findings to other subgroups of the population. The findings demonstrate the importance and relevance of parental and adolescent attitudes in understanding adolescent sexuality. Premarital sexuality is a salient issue to both young people and their parents. There are, however, very important and substantial differences in the attitudes of parents and children. On average, the attitudes of young people today are much less restrictive than those of their parents, reflecting either life cycle differences or the impact of social change. The intergenerational difference is recognized by young people themselves and probably affects the ability of parents to assist their maturing children in adjusting to and dealing with their sexuality--a difficulty likely to be reflected in the relative lack of success sexually active young people have in preventing pregnancy. Our findings also add to the research literature in demonstrating that although children, on average, have more permissive attitudes than their parents, the attitudes of individual parents tend to be reflected in the attitudes of individual children. Children whose mothers have less restrictive attitudes have, on average, less restrictive attitudes themselves. Further, the attitudes of mothers are also reflected in the behavior of their children, so on average, mothers with more permissive attitudes have children who are more sexually active. The influence of maternal attitudes, however, is stronger for children's attitudes than for their behavior. Of course, variability in children's attitudes and behavior--and even their perceptions of maternal attitudes--can only be partially explained by the attitudes of their mothers; but presumably, if the attitudes of other important family members, including fathers and siblings, were known, the prediction of adolescent attitudes would improve.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Entering first union: the choice between cohabitation and marriage among women in Italy and Spain

While in Spain and Italy cohabitation has not acquired the same role that it has had in Northern Europe, in both of these Mediterranean countries cohabitation is no longer a marginal phenomenon. Moreover, the nature of cohabiting couples is diverse. According to the most recent FFS data, first cohabitations constitute a temporary arrangement that usually ends in the formalization of the union (marriage), and within 5 years 28.9 % of first cohabitations in Spain and 51.7 % in Italy were transformed into marriages. Within a Western context of changes in union formation patterns, the study of the choice between marriage and cohabitation as first union is of great significance. Is it possible to identify a shared pattern of union formation in Mediterranean countries like Italy and Spain? The purpose of this paper is to examine the choice between cohabitation and marriage as first union (timing, incidence and determinants) using a comparative life course approach. For the analysis of the timing and prevalence, cumulative incidence curves are calculated by birth cohorts and regions; while two semiparametric competing-risks models are estimated for the determinants of first partnership formation (one for each country), considering birth cohort, parental separation, educational attainment, employment status, age at leaving the parental home and birth of a child (the last three time-varying) as independent variables.     

Risk, uncertainty and family formation: The social context of poverty groups

Abstract Despite the assumptions of many demographers that the net returns from children for non-elite groups in underdeveloped areas are likely to be negative, high fertility persists in most of these societies. Both cultural and institutional explanations have been proposed to account for this. We attempt to provide some mediation between these competing models, by introducing the elements of risk and uncertainty as factors likely to induce poverty and lead works to opt for the 'high fertility, low quality' pattern of investment of time and money in family formation. Drawing upon the work of Wharton in subsistence agriculture practices, several alternative decision-making models are proposed to account for both the persistence of high fertility, and the declines that have been registered in selected areas, such as Taiwan and perhaps China. The empirical work of Mueller on Taiwanese expectations of returns on children and the concomitant variation in family-size preferences is consistent with the models proposed. Some implications for uncertainty and risk-reduction strategies in family planning and other social welfare programmes are drawn.     

Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans

Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010. Results do not reveal widespread declines in fertility to lowest-low levels during the most acute period of crisis. The subsequent postponement of marriage and first birth was also limited, and the two-child family remains the norm. This relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries is discussed with reference to the institutional context.     

The concept and measurement of child dependency: An approach to family formation analysis

Abstract Two distinctions appear crucial in the study of human fertility: (1) aggregate versus individuallevel analysis; and (2) true explanations versus 'demographic explanations', using Stinchcombe's terminology. Social demographers analysing fertility have been accustomed to using fertility measurements derived from aggregative population analyses, and have largely terminated their analytic efforts at the level of a 'demographic explanation'. The failure to arrive at a social analysis of the process of fertility decision-making may in part to be due to this measurement heritage, which may be inappropriate for individual-level analyses. As a first step in the direction of creating measurement suitable for such analyses, fertility decision-making is labelled as family formation decision-making, and this is linked to the concept of child dependency. Measures of child-years-of-dependency (CYD) are proposed for use in family formation analysis. These integrate current quantity and tempo measures, and have greater potential for use at the level ofthe family. They require no additional data beyond fertility histories, are flexible in terms of non-modal family situations (e.g. divorce, infant or child mortality) and may be indicators of criteria used by couples in planning their fertility. Refinements of the basic CYD measures are explored. These include analyses of average versus marginal costs of child-rearing, age gradients of costs and social class differentials in costs. All of these are intended to make CYD measures more useful in individual cost-benefit analyses of child-bearing and child-rearing.     

The role of simulation techniques in the theory and observation of family formation

Summary The investigation of fertility change can involve the consideration of the results of micro-level empirical studies in the context of an economic theory of family formation. In particular, a change in the observable statistics can then be related to a change in behaviour, or factors influencing behaviour. The analysis of this relationship is hindered, however, by its complexity and by the large number of stochastic variables present. It is argued that an essential aid to such an analysis is the use of a model suitable for simulation. Here, we present such a model and illustrate possible applications with various experiments.     

The formation and stability of ideal family size among young people

A sample of 1,123 sixth, ninth, and twelfth graders in two Southern counties was questioned to ascertain how many children they think is ideal. More than three-fourths of the students in each grade had given thought to an ideal number of children for themselves; fewer had thought about the ideal number for the average American couple. Two and three children were the modal responses; mean ideal sizes were 3.02 for self and 3.16 for the average couple. The range of acceptable fertility behavior, “too few” or “too many” children, is defined by medians of 1.56 and 5.96. Ideal and acceptable family sizes increase slightly in the higher grades. A sex difference in ideals appeared only at grade 12; girls wanted more children. Negroes wanted fewer children than did whites at grade 6, more at grade 12. Size of family of orientation was directly related to ideals at grades 6 and 9, but the relation was curvilinear at grade 12. The direct relation between ideals and socioeconomic status became more pronounced at grade 12. Ideal sizes were larger for Catholics than for other religious groups. The study lends at least minimal support to the notion that early socialization affects ideas about family size.     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.