A Survey of the Teaching of Statistics in M.B.A. Programs

A survey of business schools was conducted to obtain information about the current state of the teaching of business statistics to students enrolled in M.B.A. degree programs. The survey was undertaken for and presented at a June 1986 conference on “Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business,” held at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. Information was elicited concerning both the required statistics sequence and elective statistics courses for M.B.A. students, as well as computer usage in these courses. This article summarizes the information obtained from the survey.     

统计学在20世纪的开拓性应用回顾

20世纪以来,作为数据搜集、整理和分析的一门重要工具,统计学在众多领域里得到了极其广泛的应用,统计学的作用及其重要性已渐渐显现出来。为了使统计学在20世纪所取得的进展及其重要性能为更多的人所认识和接受,并促进中国统计学的发展,对其在社会经济、自然科学以及生物医学等相关重要领域中的开拓性应用进行了简要的概述。这些应用一方面为统计学的发展提供了机遇,同时也向统计学提出了许多新的方法和应用上的挑战,为今后统计学的发展指明了方向。因而,对这些应用的回顾具有重要的实际意义。     

It's Not Just About Budget Cuts: A Study of Print Periodical Usage and a Subsequent Cancellation Project at a Small Academic Library

Susan Vandale of Hollins University discussed the 2013 print periodical survey conducted by Wyndham Robertson Library and offered an overview of how this study was used to inform cancellation decisions necessitated by the library's flat budget for fiscal year 2013/2014. In addition, she discussed how the library was able to use the study and cancellation project as an opportunity to address space concerns and shift limited funds from less-used resources to new resources that would better serve their community. Framing her presentation in the conference themes of value and impact, Vandale highlighted the library's constructive approach to the process, commitment to fulfilling the needs of their stakeholders, and success in generating a positive outcome from a less-than-ideal situation.     

The Hausdorff Space and Applied Statistics: A View from the U.S.S.R.

The article focuses on the debate in the pages of the Soviet statistical journal Vestnik Statistiki as to the existence and relevance of applied statistics as a separate scientific discipline. The contents of four letters to the editor and relevant editorial comments that appeared in this journal between October 1985 and July 1987 are analyzed.     

Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases

Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.     

Exact Inference for the pth-Quantile and the Reliability of the Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution with Singly Type II Censoring: A Standard Approach

Starting from a standard pivot, exact inference for the pth-quantile and for the reliability of the two-parameter exponential distribution in case of singly Type II censored samples is developed in this article. Fernandez (2007 Fernandez , A. J. ( 2007 ). On calculating generalized confidence intervals for the two-parameter exponential reliability function . Statistics 41 : 129 – 135 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) first obtained some of the results proposed in this article, but, differently from what are proposed here, and developed his theory starting from a generalized pivot. An illustrative example shows that, with the expressions proposed in this article, it is also possible to overcome some shortcomings raising from the formulas by Fernandez (2007 Fernandez , A. J. ( 2007 ). On calculating generalized confidence intervals for the two-parameter exponential reliability function . Statistics 41 : 129 – 135 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Finally, a new expression for the moments of the pivot is obtained.     

Assessing safety at the end of clinical trials using system organ classes: A case and comparative study

Recent approaches to the statistical analysis of adverse event (AE) data in clinical trials have proposed the use of groupings of related AEs, such as by system organ class (SOC). These methods have opened up the possibility of scanning large numbers of AEs while controlling for multiple comparisons, making the comparative performance of the different methods in terms of AE detection and error rates of interest to investigators. We apply two Bayesian models and two procedures for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which use groupings of AEs, to real clinical trial safety data. We find that while the Bayesian models are appropriate for the full data set, the error controlling methods only give similar results to the Bayesian methods when low incidence AEs are removed. A simulation study is used to compare the relative performances of the methods. We investigate the differences between the methods over full trial data sets, and over data sets with low incidence AEs and SOCs removed. We find that while the removal of low incidence AEs increases the power of the error controlling procedures, the estimated power of the Bayesian methods remains relatively constant over all data sizes. Automatic removal of low-incidence AEs however does have an effect on the error rates of all the methods, and a clinically guided approach to their removal is needed. Overall we found that the Bayesian approaches are particularly useful for scanning the large amounts of AE data gathered.     

A Physical Device for Demonstrating Confounding,Blocking, and the Role of Randomization in Uncovering a Causal Relationship

A physical device is described that can be used by students in a laboratory setting to discover the potential effects of confounding, the important role played by randomization in experimental design, and the value of good blocking. If the self-discovery approach of a physical laboratory is not possible, the instructor can use the device on an overhead projector as a demonstration to a whole class. The device has been successfully used in a laboratory setting as part of a first course in statistics at Waterloo. The device exploits a simple geometric setup to make the points. A more general mathematical approach is also described that relies only on undergraduate calculus.     

The current state of Bayesian methods in nonclinical pharmaceutical statistics: Survey results and recommendations from the DIA/ASA-BIOP Nonclinical Bayesian Working Group

The use of Bayesian methods to support pharmaceutical product development has grown in recent years. In clinical statistics, the drive to provide faster access for patients to medical treatments has led to a heightened focus by industry and regulatory authorities on innovative clinical trial designs, including those that apply Bayesian methods. In nonclinical statistics, Bayesian applications have also made advances. However, they have been embraced far more slowly in the nonclinical area than in the clinical counterpart. In this article, we explore some of the reasons for this slower rate of adoption. We also present the results of a survey conducted for the purpose of understanding the current state of Bayesian application in nonclinical areas and for identifying areas of priority for the DIA/ASA-BIOP Nonclinical Bayesian Working Group. The survey explored current usage, hurdles, perceptions, and training needs for Bayesian methods among nonclinical statisticians. Based on the survey results, a set of recommendations is provided to help guide the future advancement of Bayesian applications in nonclinical pharmaceutical statistics.     

A response to M. Stone: 'How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might)'

Summary.  This is a response to Stone's criticisms of the Spottiswoode report to the UK Treasury which was responding to the Treasury's request for improved methods to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of the 43 police districts in England and Wales. The Spottiswoode report recommended uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), which Stone critiqued en route to proposing an alternative approach. Here we note some of the most serious errors in his criticism and inaccurate portrayals of DEA and SFA. Most of our attention is devoted to DEA, and to Stone's recommended alternative approach without much attention to SFA, partly because of his abbreviated discussion of the latter. In our response we attempt to be constructive as well as critical by showing how Stone's proposed approach can be joined to DEA to expand his proposal beyond limitations in his formulations.     

乡镇统计工作机制有效运转的思考

 乡镇统计是统计工作的重要基础,同时也是目前统计工作的薄弱环节。巩固和加强乡镇统计工作,推动乡镇统计基础工作规范化建设,促进乡镇统计工作机制有效运转,本文提出了具体的设想和思考。本文重点从乡镇统计站建设、人员建设、制度建设三个方面,对乡镇统计工作机制有效发挥作用进行研究,目的在于推进乡镇统计工作机制产生有效生产力。     

Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section

This article proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for a typical multi-factor model with time-varying risk exposures to macroeconomic risk factors and corresponding premia to price U.S. publicly traded assets. The model assumes that risk exposures and idiosyncratic volatility follow a break-point latent process, allowing for changes at any point on time but not restricting them to change at all points. The empirical application to 40 years of U.S. data and 23 portfolios shows that the approach yields sensible results compared to previous two-step methods based on naive recursive estimation schemes, as well as a set of alternative model restrictions. A variance decomposition test shows that although most of the predictable variation comes from the market risk premium, a number of additional macroeconomic risks, including real output and inflation shocks, are significantly priced in the cross-section. A Bayes factor analysis massively favors the proposed change-point model. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Shrinkage and modification techniques in estimation of variance and the related problems: A review

One of the surprising decision-theoretic results Charles Stein discovered is the inadmissibility of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estirnator(UMVUE) of the variance of a normal distribution with an unknown mean. Some methods for deriving estimators better than the UMVUE were given by Stein. Brown, Brewster and Zidek. Recently Kubokawa established a novel approach, called the IERD method, by use of which one gets a unified class of improved estimators including their previous procedures. This paper gives a review for a series of these decision-theoretical developments as well as surveys the study of the variance-estimation problem from various aspects. Related to this issue, the paper enumerates several topics with the situations where the usual plain estimators are required to be shrunken or modified, and gives reasonable procedures improving the usual ones through the IERD method.