中国省级人口转变的时空演变进程——基于聚类分析的实证研究

综合运用建国60年以来的人口自然变动以及生育和死亡转变的数据,从实证研究的角度通过聚类分析刻画我国省级人口转变在时间和空间上的演变进程。时间序列聚类的结果表明,各省的生育率、死亡率和人口自然变动的转变过程具有不同步性,转变模式各具特色;而多时点连续聚类的结果充分体现了我国省级人口转变在空间上的扩散过程和在时间上的推移过程,以及省级人口转变趋同的速度不断加快的特点。此外,对省级人口转变和社会经济发展进程一致性的比较,反映出两者既有一致性也有非一致性,社会经济发展对省级人口转变时空演变进程有一定的影响,但非决定性影响。     

Technological change and sociocultural models in China: A case study of train commuters in Beijing

ABSTRACT

China’s mobility turn has created the world’s largest public rail system, contributing extensively to citizens’ economic, social, and spatial mobility. Concurrently, this technological transformation has introduced many opportunities for individuation, which could potentially challenge the social, collectivistic, and Confucian foundations of China’s sociocultural and political ideology. While the notion that ‘mobility produces culture’ is readily accepted, research on train mobility in China is rare. In this study, we use Albert Bandura’s Model of Triadic Reciprocal Causation to conceptualize mobility as agency. We employ Hermeneutic Content Analysis, a mixed methods framework, to study how this rapidly evolving mobility environment connects to the lives of 31 regular train users living in Beijing. Studying agency in China enables us to systematize the sociocultural models within which mobility practices are embedded and how they manifest. We find that our interviewees embed agentive practices in a cultural model that is intertwined with collectivistic aspirations of the country. Technological developments are thus integrated into existing sociocultural models and political expectations, contradicting existing debates on the fracturing impact of disruptive technologies.     

Bringing the state in: A commentary on welfare states and social inequality

A long and extensive line of welfare state research reveals that the state is both a cause and consequence of social stratification. However, the findings of this research have largely been ignored in the literature on social stratification and mobility. Similarly, welfare state scholars largely work without reference to the research on social stratification and mobility. The papers presented in the volume are an important first step towards integrating the literatures these complementary literatures. In this commentary, I push these articles further by revealing linkages between the papers that are not fully developed in papers themselves. In particular, I highlight two ways in which the papers in this issue can be productively linked to raise new questions or provide new insight into old problems. I then discuss the reasons why and productive ways in which these two large and stand-alone literatures can be integrated. I end the commentary with a section describing productive avenues for future research that integrates both literatures.     

流动人口身份认同的现状及影响因素研究——基于我国106个城市的调查数据

本文基于我国106个城市的问卷调查数据,采用探索性因子分析法和多元回归分析法对我国流动人口身份认同的现状和影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:有超过一半的流动人口实现了身份认同,但他们在认同愿望和内心认同上却表现出较大的差异性,其中内心认同要明显低于认同愿望。这说明流动人口的身份认同在现实中不是同质的和单一维度的,而是复杂的,并受到诸多因素的影响,其中制度支持、个体特征、社会资本和城市体验这四个维度对流动人口身份认同起着独特的、不可替代的作用。     

More Than Pop Culture: Depictions of HIV in the Media and the Effect on Viewer's Perception of Risk

When young adults are questioned about where they gain their knowledge of HIV, overwhelmingly popular media (including television) is reported. Thus, the goal of this article is to question how media is used to educate and influence young people's present perceptions of HIV/AIDS. Narrative analysis of popular prime time shows was used focusing on the story lines and characters used to introduce the topic, as well as the myths and facts about HIV. Results presented provide researchers a clearer insight to how popular shows discuss HIV/AIDS while also highlighting the ways Social Cognitive Theory can still be utilized.     

嵌入与融合:民族地区失地农民可持续生计问题的调查与思考

土地乃民生之本,民族地区由于城市化发展、生态环境建设需要以及自然灾害等原因,面临着大量农业用地转为非农利用问题,成为影响民族地区社会稳定和经济发展的"难症";本研究以民族地区失地农民的可持续生计问题作为研究对象,运用多学科的理论和方法,着重分析了民族地区失地农民生存现状、可持续生计存在问题及对当地经济社会发展和民族关系的影响等,全面而系统地对失地农民生计路径进行具有建设意义和实践意义的探索。     

非公经济发展与社会就业互动关系研究——基于云南省16个地州的面板数据分析

基于2003—2009年云南省16个地州非公经济产值和社会就业的面板数据,检验并测度了云南省非公经济发展与社会就业的互动关系。结果表明:(1)非公经济的发展产生了带动社会就业的效应,弹性值为7.6个百分点,然而由于云南省非公经济发展不足,其就业拉动效应不明显。(2)就空间差异来看,非公经济发展对云南省不同地州的就业效应存在三级梯度。聚类结果显示,以昆明、曲靖和红河为第一梯度的非公经济发展相对好的地区,其带动社会就业增长的作用显著高于第二、三梯度地区。针对云南省非公经济社会就业存在的主要问题,给出了对策。     

新疆移民问题研究——新中国成立后新疆人口迁移、定居及类型研究

运用＂社会行动-情境分析＂理论视角来分析新疆人口迁移、定居的理想类型,发现新疆人口迁移具有多元化、复杂性和历史传承性的特点,不能用单一人口迁移类型来解释。在新时期,新疆人口迁移类型面临新的转型,主动自愿移民会不断增加,这既体现了社会对人的主体性的关注与尊重,同时也说明社会的自由度在不断增强。面对新疆人口迁移问题,要因势利导,顺应人口迁移类型演变的趋势。     

侗族人口出生性别比及其社会基础——基于一个村落的分析

黔东南苗族侗族自治州侗族人口出生性别比偏高,溺弃女婴的现象较为普遍。本文旨在通过案例探究黔东南苗族侗族自治州侗族出生性别比偏高背后特有的社会基础。研究认为,男孩生育偏好的背后是其特有的自然社会生态:农业自然经济模式对男性劳动力的需求及对入赘婚的排斥,良好孝道的保持和养儿防老的可靠预期,社会结构中对男性地位的强调以及普遍存在的对无儿户道德质疑的舆论氛围。     

养老院老人的需求与养老机构专业化——对北京市某养老院的个案研究

本文通过对北京市某养老院的个案研究 ,分析了当前中国养老院老人的生活及精神、心理需求。文章指出 ,正是这些需求的出现不断推动着中国养老机构走向专业化的道路。而在提升服务水平 ,迈向专业化的过程中 ,引入社会工作的专业价值与工作手法 ,是中国养老机构拓展生存和发展空间的有效途径     

大学毕业生中谁端上了铁饭碗?——基于社会资本的解释及实证分析

党政机构、事业单位和国企具有工作稳定、收入高的特点,其岗位成为大学毕业生可以进入的高收入工作岗位。本文认为,父母的职务、个人党员身份等与社会资本相关的变量可以提供招聘信息以及非课本知识,因此,能够提升大学毕业生进入党政机构、事业单位或国企的可能性。之后,本文利用2011年南京6所高校的数据,采用Probit估计方法,证实了此假说。