A case study of MCB and SBMH stock transaction using a novel BINMA(1) with non-stationary NB correlated innovations

This paper focuses on the modeling of the intra-day transactions at the Stock Exchange Mauritius (SEM) of the two major banking companies: Mauritius Commercial Bank Group Limited (MCB) and State Bank of Mauritius Holdings Ltd (SBMH) in Mauritius using a flexible non-stationary bivariate integer-valued moving average of order 1 (BINMA(1)) process with negative binomial (NB) innovations that may cater for different levels of over-dispersion. The generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach is used to estimate the regression, dependence and over-dispersion effects. However, for the over-dispersion parameters, the auto-covariance structure in the GQL is constructed using some higher order moments. This new model is tested over some Monte-Carlo experiments and is applied to analyze the inter-related intra-day series of volume of stocks for the two banking institutions using data collected from 3 August to 16 October 2015 in the presence of some time-varying covariates such as the news effect, Friday effect and time of the day effect.     

A non‐stationary bivariate INAR(1) process with a simple cross‐dependence: Estimation with some properties

This paper considers modelling of a non‐stationary bivariate integer‐valued autoregressive process of order 1 (BINAR(1)) where the cross‐dependence between the counting series is formed through the relationship of the current series with the previous‐lagged count series observations while the pair of innovations is independent and marginally Poisson. In addition, this paper proposes a generalised quasi‐likelihood (GQL) estimating equation based on the exact specification of the mean score and the auto‐covariance structure. The proposed approach is also compared with other popular techniques such as conditional maximum likelihood (CML), generalised least squares (GLS) and generalised method of moment (GMM) based on simulated data from the proposed BINAR(1). Moreover, the model is applied to weekly series of day and night road accidents arising in some regions of Mauritius and is compared with other existing BINAR(1) models.     

A BINAR(1) time-series model with cross-correlated COM–Poisson innovations

This article proposes a bivariate integer-valued autoregressive time-series model of order 1 (BINAR(1) with COM–Poisson marginals to analyze a pair of non stationary time series of counts. The interrelation between the series is induced by the correlated innovations, while the non stationarity is captured through a common set of time-dependent covariates that influence the count responses. The regression and dependence effects are estimated using generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach. Simulation experiments are performed to assess the performance of the estimation algorithms. The proposed BINAR(1) process is applied to analyze a real-life series of day and night accidents in Mauritius.     

Modelling a non-stationary BINAR(1) Poisson process

ABSTRACT

Non-stationarity in bivariate time series of counts may be induced by a number of time-varying covariates affecting the bivariate responses due to which the innovation terms of the individual series as well as the bivariate dependence structure becomes non-stationary. So far, in the existing models, the innovation terms of individual INAR(1) series and the dependence structure are assumed to be constant even though the individual time series are non-stationary. Under this assumption, the reliability of the regression and correlation estimates is questionable. Besides, the existing estimation methodologies such as the conditional maximum likelihood (CMLE) and the composite likelihood estimation are computationally intensive. To address these issues, this paper proposes a BINAR(1) model where the innovation series follow a bivariate Poisson distribution under some non-stationary distributional assumptions. The method of generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) is used to estimate the regression effects while the serial and bivariate correlations are estimated using a robust moment estimation technique. The application of model and estimation method is made in the simulated data. The GQL method is also compared with the CMLE, generalized method of moments (GMM) and generalized estimating equation (GEE) approaches where through simulation studies, it is shown that GQL yields more efficient estimates than GMM and equally or slightly more efficient estimates than CMLE and GEE.     

Properties of robust m-estimators for poisson and negative binomial data ∗

We investigate robust M-estimators of location and over-dispersion for independent and identically distributed samples from Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB)distributions. We focus on asymptotic and small-sample efficiencies, outlier-induced biases, and biases caused by model mis-specification. This is important information for assessing the practical utility of the estimation method. Our results demonstrate that resonably efficient estimation of location and over-dispersion parameters for count data is possible with samples sizes as small as n=25. The sensitivity of these stimators, especially when the amount of over-dispersion is small. We aslo conclude that serious biases result when using robust Poisson M-estimation with NB data. The biases are less serious when using robust NB M-estimation with Poisson data.     

A COM-Poisson-type generalization of the negative binomial distribution

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces a generalization of the negative binomial (NB) distribution in analogy with the COM-Poisson distribution. Many well-known distributions are particular and limiting distributions. The proposed distribution belongs to the modified power series, generalized hypergeometric and exponential families, and also arises as weighted NB and COM-Poisson distributions. Probability and moment recurrence formulae, and probabilistic and reliability properties have been derived. With the flexibility to model under-, equi- and over-dispersion, and its various interesting properties, this NB generalization will be a useful model for count data. An application to empirical modeling is illustrated with a real data set.     

Flexible Bivariate INAR(1) Processes Using Copulas

Multivariate count time series data occur in many different disciplines. The class of INteger-valued AutoRegressive (INAR) processes has the great advantage to consider explicitly both the discreteness and autocorrelation characterizing this type of data. Moreover, extensions of the simple INAR(1) model to the multi-dimensional space make it possible to model more than one series simultaneously. However, existing models do not offer great flexibility for dependence modelling, allowing only for positive correlation. In this work, we consider a bivariate INAR(1) (BINAR(1)) process where cross-correlation is introduced through the use of copulas for the specification of the joint distribution of the innovations. We mainly emphasize on the parametric case that arises under the assumption of Poisson marginals. Other marginal distributions are also considered. A short application on a bivariate financial count series illustrates the model.     

Communication in Statistics-Theory and methods improved GQL estimation method for the generalised BINMA(1) model

In a recent research, the quasi-likelihood estimation methodology was developed to estimate the regression effects in the Generalized BINMA(1) (GBINMA(1)) process. The method provides consistent parameter estimates but, in the intermediate computations, moment estimating equations were used to estimate the serial- and cross-correlation parameters. This procedure may not result optimal parameter estimates, in particular, for the regression effects. This paper provides an alternative simpler GBINMA(1) process based on multivariate thinning properties where the main effects are estimated via a robust generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) estimation approach. The two techniques are compared through some simulation experiments. A real-life data application is studied.     

Comparative GMM and GQL logistic regression models on hierarchical data

We often rely on the likelihood to obtain estimates of regression parameters but it is not readily available for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Inferences for the regression coefficients and the covariance parameters are key in these models. We presented alternative approaches for analyzing binary data from a hierarchical structure that do not rely on any distributional assumptions: a generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach and a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. These are alternative approaches to the typical maximum-likelihood approximation approach in Statistical Analysis System (SAS) such as Laplace approximation (LAP). We examined and compared the performance of GQL and GMM approaches with multiple random effects to the LAP approach as used in PROC GLIMMIX, SAS. The GQL approach tends to produce unbiased estimates, whereas the LAP approach can lead to highly biased estimates for certain scenarios. The GQL approach produces more accurate estimates on both the regression coefficients and the covariance parameters with smaller standard errors as compared to the GMM approach. We found that both GQL and GMM approaches are less likely to result in non-convergence as opposed to the LAP approach. A simulation study was conducted and a numerical example was presented for illustrative purposes.     

Generalized integer-valued random coefficient for a first order structure autoregressive (RCINAR) process

A random coefficient autoregressive process for count data based on a generalized thinning operator is presented. Existence and weak stationarity conditions for these models are established. For the particular case of the (generalized) binomial thinning, it is proved that the necessary and sufficient conditions for weak stationarity are the same as those for continuous-valued AR(1) processes. These kinds of processes are appropriate for modelling non-linear integer-valued time series. They allow for over-dispersion and are appropriate when including covariates. Model parameters estimators are calculated and their properties studied analytically and/or through simulation.     

Estimating the parameters of a BINMA Poisson model for a non-stationary bivariate time series

This article proposes a novel non-stationary BINMA time series model by extending two INMA processes where their innovation series follow the bivariate Poisson under time-varying moment assumptions. This article also demonstrates, through simulation studies, the use and superiority of the generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach to estimate the regression effects, which is computationally less complicated as compared to conditional maximum likelihood estimation (CMLE) and the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). The serial and bivariate dependence correlations are estimated by a robust method of moments.     

Generalized linear models to study spatial distribution of tree species in Argentinean arid Chaco

This work adapts some generalized linear models in order to study the spatial pattern of an important tree species. The classical multivariate Ising model, which incorporates the dependence on neighbour individuals in a regular lattice, was adapted by setting a Poisson regression with an extra variation parameter to fit over-dispersion. Because the spatial pattern is only evident to a special reference scale, plots were sampled at two different scales. Two individual presence-absence matrices were analysed for each case through over-dispersion Poisson regression and log-linear models, including binary indicators for a neighbour in the four directions in the linear predictor. The results showed that the species, in the adult stage, has a spatial distribution in patches having no more than two adult individuals.     

Robust quasi-likelihood inference in generalized linear mixed models with outliers

It is well known that in a traditional outlier-free situation, the generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach [B.C. Sutradhar, On exact quasilikelihood inference in generalized linear mixed models, Sankhya: Indian J. Statist. 66 (2004), pp. 261–289] performs very well to obtain the consistent as well as the efficient estimates for the parameters involved in the generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). In this paper, we first examine the effect of the presence of one or more outliers on the GQL estimation for the parameters in such GLMMs, especially in two important models such as count and binary mixed models. The outliers appear to cause serious biases and hence inconsistency in the estimation. As a remedy, we then propose a robust GQL (RGQL) approach in order to obtain the consistent estimates for the parameters in the GLMMs in the presence of one or more outliers. An extensive simulation study is conducted to examine the consistency performance of the proposed RGQL approach.     

On efficient inferences in familial-longitudinal binary models with two variance components

When a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with multiple (two or more) sources of random effects is considered, the inferences may vary depending on the nature of the random effects. For example, the inference in GLMMs with two independent random effects with two distinct components of dispersion will be different from the inference in GLMMs with two random effects in a two factor factorial design set-up. In this paper, we consider a familial-longitudinal model for repeated binary data where the binary response of an individual member of a family at a given time point is assumed to be influenced by the past responses of the member as well as two but independent sources of random family effects. For the estimation of the parameters of the proposed model, we discuss the well-known maximum-likelihood (ML) method as well as a generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) approach. The main objective of the paper is to examine the relative asymptotic efficiency performance of the ML and GQL estimators for the regression effects, dynamic (longitudinal) dependence and variance parameters of the random family effects from two sources.     

On familial Poisson mixed models with multi-dimensional random effects

When a generalized linear mixed model with multiple (two or more) sources of random effects is considered, the inferences may vary depending on the nature of the random effects. In this paper, we consider a familial Poisson mixed model where each of the count responses of a family are influenced by two independent unobservable familial random effects with two distinct components of dispersion. A generalized quasilikelihood (GQL) approach is discussed for the estimation of the dispersion components as well as the regression effects of the model. A simulation study is conducted to examine the relative performance of the GQL approach as opposed to a simpler method of moments. Furthermore, the GQL estimation methodology is illustrated by using health care utilization data that follow a Poisson mixed model with one component of dispersion and by using simulated asthma data that follow a Poisson mixed model with two sources of random effects with two distinct components of dispersion.     

Comparisons of some bivariate regression models

The bivariate negative binomial regression (BNBR) and the bivariate Poisson log-normal regression (BPLR) models have been used to describe count data that are over-dispersed. In this paper, a new bivariate generalized Poisson regression (BGPR) model is defined. An advantage of the new regression model over the BNBR and BPLR models is that the BGPR can be used to model bivariate count data with either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. In this paper, we carry out a simulation study to compare the three regression models when the true data-generating process exhibits over-dispersion. In the simulation experiment, we observe that the bivariate generalized Poisson regression model performs better than the bivariate negative binomial regression model and the BPLR model.     

On probit versus logit dynamic mixed models for binary panel data

In this paper, we consider inferences in a binary dynamic mixed model. The existing estimation approaches mainly estimate the regression effects and the dynamic dependence parameters either through the estimation of the random effects or by avoiding the random effects technically. Under the assumption that the random effects follow a Gaussian distribution, we propose a generalized quasilikelihood (GQL) approach for the estimation of the parameters of the dynamic mixed models. The proposed approach is computationally less cumbersome than the exact maximum likelihood (ML) approach. We also carry out the GQL estimation under two competitive, namely, probit and logit mixed models, and discuss both the asymptotic and small-sample behaviour of their estimators.     

The cosine geometric distribution with count data modeling

In this paper, a new two-parameter discrete distribution is introduced. It belongs to the family of the weighted geometric distribution (GD), with the feature of using a particular trigonometric weight. This configuration adds an oscillating property to the former GD which can be helpful in analyzing the data with over-dispersion, as developed in this study. First, we present the basic statistical properties of the new distribution, including the cumulative distribution function, hazard rate function and moment generating function. Estimation of the related model parameters is investigated using the maximum likelihood method. A simulation study is performed to illustrate the convergence of the estimators. Applications to two practical datasets are given to show that the new model performs at least as well as some competitors.     

A new count model generated from mixed Poisson transmuted exponential family with an application to health care data

In this article, a new mixed Poisson distribution is introduced. This new distribution is obtained by utilizing mixing process, with Poisson distribution as mixed distribution and Transmuted Exponential as mixing distribution. Distributional properties like unimodality, moments, over-dispersion, infinite divisibility are studied. Three methods viz. Method of moment, Method of moment and proportion, and Maximum-likelihood method are used for parameter estimation. Further, an actuarial application in context of aggregate claim distribution is presented. Finally, to show the applicability and superiority of proposed model, we discuss count data and count regression modeling and compare with some well established models.     

A working estimating equation for spatial count data

This paper proposes a working estimating equation which is computationally easy to use for spatial count data. The proposed estimating equation is a modification of quasi-likelihood estimating equations without the need of correctly specifying the covariance matrix. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the proposed estimator has consistency and asymptotic normality. A simulation comparison also indicates that the proposed method has competitive performance in dealing with over-dispersion data from a parameter-driven model.