New MDGs, Development Concepts, Principles and Challenges in a Post-2015 World

As we approach 2015 the question of what, if anything, should replace the MDGs becomes increasingly important. This paper presents findings from studies on the implementation of the poverty, education and gender MDGs in Kenya and South Africa. These show how top-down processes associated with meeting the MDG targets led by government or large NGOs are disassociated from bottom-up engagements with gender, education and poverty by households or communities. A missing middle linked with professional action by teachers or civil servants and enhanced information flow means that groups from the top and the bottom talk past each other. We therefore argue that these experiences with implementing the MDGs, coupled with a variety of global changes since 2000s, mean that a major concern in developing a set of post 2015 goals is the need to address the disarticulation between ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approaches in international development. We link this challenge with five principles put forward for post 2015 goals and indicators: holism, equity, sustainability, ownership and global obligation. The application of this approach to work on goals and targets is illustrated in relation to nutrition/food security and secondary education.     

Identifying Synergies and Complementarities Between MDGs: Results from Cluster Analysis

The MDGs are interlinked: acceleration in one goal is likely to speed up progress in others. Nevertheless, these synergies are not always visible, and may differ across countries. Using bivariate cluster analysis, this paper investigates whether distinct groups of developing countries can be identified, using statistical methods, on the basis of the correlation of changes in main MDG indicators over the 1990–2008 period. Identified groups include: (1) “good performers”, characterized by strong positive synergies in MDGs indicators; (2) “poor performers”, where there are synergies in poor progress towards the MDGs and (3) “partial performers” countries where progress in one MDG went along with regress or stagnation in another. We then study the determinants of cluster membership. While growth in GDP per capita is, unsurprisingly, best able to distinguish between “good” and “poor” performers, a poor institutional framework and deteriorations in the income distribution is a notable correlate of partial progress, thus apparently undermining synergies in reaching the MDGs. In light of the current discussions about the post-MDG system, our results suggest that synergies between MDG progress can be achieved but they cannot be taken for granted. Improving institutional performance and reducing inequality appear particularly important drivers of promoting such synergies.     

Subjective Well-Being Approach to Environmental Valuation: Evidence for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The subjective well-being approach to environmental valuation is applied to analyze the valuation of greenhouse gas emissions with a fairness-adjustment in the valuation exercise. Results indicate that industrialized countries have high willingness-to-pay to reduce emissions. Developing countries differ in their valuations. Results indicate that poor countries have willingness to pay whereas middle income countries indicate willingness to accept payments to reduce emissions. Such high willingness-to-pay of industrialized countries, however, does not imply that they can pay off developing countries in order to continue emitting as usual. Still, the different positions with regard to emissions point to possibilities toward some inter-group payments and transfers system to allow societies to contribute toward global reduction emissions reduction.     

Status of National Family Planning Programmes of Developing Countries in relation to demographic targets

Abstract Having arisen within the context of social and economic development plans, demographic targets associated with family planning programmes in developing countries stipulate levels deemed desirable or necessary to implement economic goals. Since an optimum fertility path for economic development is open to conjecture, targets tend to be vague or arbitrary, and generally imply a fertility decline that goes beyond family limitation based on health considerations. While on the one hand, programme administrators have assumed responsibility for these targets, on the other hand they have structured their programmes toward health, not demographic, goals. As a result, they have minimized rather tham maximized the contribution of the programmes to the targets. of the 24 countries with programmes designed to reduce birth rates, the demographic variable is on target in seven; in six, review is premature; five cannot be evaluated because targets are non-quantifiable or vital data are too uncertain; and in six, including India and Pakistan, progress has been poor, at least in relation to targets. The demographic target is only one of many models and techniques for programme evaluation, although many require data not often available in developing countries. An estimate of births averted based directly on programme activities is not only complex but speculative. However, in contrast to the target criterion, cost benefit analyses involving the estimated return for an averted birth indicate that the programmes are a highly profitable investment.     

Social Patterning in Body Mass Index (BMI) Among Contemporary Immigrant Groups: The Emergence of a Gradient

Although adult body mass index (BMI) displays considerable social patterning worldwide, the direction and strength of the relationship between BMI and socioeconomic status (SES) varies cross nationally. We examine social gradients in BMI for contemporary U.S. immigrants and evaluate whether their SES-BMI gradient patterns are shaped by underlying gradients in immigrant origin countries and whether they are further patterned by time in the United States. Data come from the New Immigrant Survey, the only nationally representative survey of contemporary immigrants. Results indicate that the inverse SES-BMI gradients observed among this population are strongest among women originating in highly developed countries. After arrival in the United States, however, inverse gradient patterns are driven largely by higher weights among low-SES individuals, particularly those from less-developed countries. We conclude that although certain immigrants appear to be uniquely protected from weight gain, poorer individuals from less-developed countries are doubly disadvantaged; this raises concerns about worsening inequalities in both diet and behavior between the rich and poor upon arrival to the United States.     

Productivity Indicators for the Rural Poor in Developing Countries

Meeting the Millennium Development Goals will necessarily require a heavy focus on rural areas, where most of the world’s poor are to be found. More specifically, policy will need to raise the productivity of this group, which includes farmers, wage labourers and those suffering from disease and malnutrition. Yet, at present, no index exists which can assess countries on the basis of technological indicators that bear heavily on the productivity of the rural poor. A wide variety of unresolved problems notwithstanding, this paper constitutes the first attempt to construct an index that is designed specifically to assist those who are concerned with rural-specific policies towards meeting the MDGs.     

The Impact of Exposure to Other Countries on Life Satisfaction: An International Application of the Relative Income Hypothesis

The cause of international differences in life satisfaction is usually ascribed to differences in living standards. Yet, despite improving living standards in a lot of middle-income countries, significant differences in life satisfaction between middle- and high-income countries remain. This paper examines if there is an international comparison effect and assesses to what extent the relative income hypothesis can be applied to explain international differences in life satisfaction. We test this by analyzing how exposure to other countries impacts life satisfaction. It is hypothesized that higher exposure to other countries in low- and middle-income countries has a negative effect due to increased aspirations and relative deprivation, while the opposite holds true for rich countries. We draw on data from the World Value Survey, the World Bank and the KOF Globalization index to perform a multilevel analysis. The results suggest that an international comparison effect indeed exists and is capable of partially explaining international differences in life satisfaction. Additional analyses reveal that people in lower income classes, in all countries, are affected more by exposure to other countries, indicating that individual characteristics are important when assessing the impact of exposure on life satisfaction. We demonstrate the robustness of these findings by showing that both sub-indicators of exposure, informational flow and international contact, have an impact on life satisfaction that is similar to that of our overall exposure-index.     

International Migration and Human Development in Destination Countries: A Cross-National Analysis of Less-Developed Countries, 1970–2005

Contemporary levels of international migration in less-developed countries are raising new and important questions regarding the consequences of immigration for human welfare and well-being. However, there is little systematic cross-national evidence of how international migration affects human development levels in migrant-receiving countries in the less-developed world. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by assessing the impact of cumulative international migration flows on the human development index, a composite measure of aggregate well-being. A series of panel models are estimated using a sample of less-developed countries for the period, 1970–2005. The results indicate that higher levels of international migration are associated with lower scores on the human development index, net of controls, but that the effect of international migration is relatively small.     

意愿与行为：外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动①--基于东部“人口倒挂”藕村的个案分析

外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动,是考量外来人口适应并融入城市社会的重要指标。基于浙江省L区“人口倒挂”藕村的调查,研究发现：（1）本地居民对外来人口的主观评价总体正面偏上,但接纳意愿较低,不愿与外来人口建立比较亲密的关系;（2）外来人口对本地居民的主观评价总体负面偏下,但接纳意愿较高,希望与本地居民建立比较亲密的关系;（3）外来人口与本地居民之间的互动行为,总体具有偶尔性、封闭性、浅层性的特点,互动情况不容乐观,但彼此基本相安无事;（4）无论是互动意愿还是互动行为,年轻一代相比年长一代总体具有更多积极表现,但是也具有更强的互动张力,即年轻一代之间更易于发生矛盾冲突。研究认为,当前外来人口与本地居民之间的互动在某种意义上是“纠结型互动”,相比“摩擦性互动”,这是一种处于变迁之中的新型且积极的关系形态。     

Composite Indices of Development and Poverty: An Application to MDGs

The measurement of development or poverty as multidimensional phenomena is very difficult because there are several theoretical, methodological and empirical problems involved. The literature of composite indicators offers a wide variety of aggregation methods, all with their pros and cons. In this paper, we propose a new, alternative composite index denoted as MPI (Mazziotta-Pareto Index) which, starting from a linear aggregation, introduces penalties for the countries or geographical areas with ‘unbalanced’ values of the indicators. As an example of application of the MPI, we consider a set of indicators in order to measure the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and we present a comparison between HDI (Human Development Index) methodology, HPI (Human Poverty Index) methodology and MPI.     

The polarizing effect of economic inequality on class identification: Evidence from 44 countries

Using cumulative logit mixed models fitted to World Values Survey data from 44 countries, we explore the impact of economic conditions – both at the individual-level and the national-level – on social class identification. Consistent with previous research, we find a positive relationship between household income and class identification in all countries that we explore, though this relationship varies substantially. Also corroborating previous research, we find that ‘low’ class identifications are more likely in poor countries than in rich ones. However, in contrast to previous research that has neglected the role of inequality, our results indicate that the effect of economic development diminishes if income inequality is considered in the same model. We further demonstrate that income inequality has an important polarizing effect on class identification. Specifically, the relationship between household income and class identity tends to be strongest in countries with a high level of income inequality.     

Geopolitical Aspects of Population in the Twenty‐First Century

Over the second half of the twentieth century rapid population growth in the less developed countries has redrawn the global demographic map. Many once‐poor countries have also experienced strong economic growth, which in combination with the demographic change has yielded marked shifts in the world's economic balance, with far‐reaching geopolitical implications. At the same time, low fertility in much of the developed world presages a future of population shrinkage, accompanied by pronounced population aging. In per capita terms, the economic advantages of the developed countries will likely persist for many years, but their actual and potential falls in population may accentuate their loss of relative economic power and eventually lead to marginalization of their international standing and influence. Preventing population shrinkage will be an urgent task for them, requiring either large‐scale immigration (likely to be ruled out) or raising the birth rate. Existing pro‐family policies have had at best modest effects on fertility levels. Two novel approaches are described that would plausibly have greater impact. One would counteract the disproportionate influence of older voters in the electorate by granting voting rights to all citizens, allowing custodial parents to vote on behalf of their children. The second would reform the public pension system to reestablish the link between the financial security of retired persons and the number of children they have raised to productive adulthood.     

The Diffusion of IT in the Historical Context of Innovations from Developed Countries

The well-known s-shaped diffusion of technology curve generally works well in developed countries. But how does it perform in the very different context of developing countries? Across a wide range of new technologies imported from the developed countries it works poorly. In most cases the penetration rate fails to reach 25% of the population. The reason for this as I see it has to do with the concentration of innovations in the rich countries and the devotion of R&D to rich rather than poor country problems. I redrew the s-shaped curve to reflect these facts. At the other extreme, however, are technologies such as the mobile phone, which have reached a penetration rate in some developing countries that is higher than in certain developed countries. The underlying reason for this unusual experience is thought to be leapfrogging, the conditions for which are especially favourable in the case of mobile phones. Therefore there is a need to redraw the curve that explains the diffusion of most new technologies in developing countries.     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Technology Innovation and Human Development in Technologically Advanced Countries: Fresh Insights from Quantiles-on-Quantile Approach

Our study investigates the relationship between technology innovation and human development in technologically advanced countries using data from quarterly observations from the last decade of the twentieth century to the first two decades of the twenty-first century. This objective of this study is to implement Quantile-on-Quantile regression (QQ) technique that as formulated by Sim and Zhou (J Bank Finance 55:1–8, 2015) and the renowned Granger-causality in quantiles as proposed by Troster (Econom Rev 37(8):850–866, 2018) examine the basic relationship between the given quantiles of technology innovation and their effects on the quantiles of human development. Therefore, the outcomes of this study explain the overall interdependence of technology innovation and affect the overall human development index. It is enumerated that the empirical results indicate that a significant positive relationship exists between technology innovation and human development in all selected technologically advanced countries, predominantly in both low and high tails. Moreover, the outcomes of Granger causality quantiles indicate a bi-directional fundamental relationship between these two variables in the dataset of all countries. The outcomes of the observations are extended to the recent findings on these two variables’ nexus and imply a differential impact on the technologically advanced countries. This causality guides us to offer some specific policy recommendations to each group of countries.

     

Ethnic Diversity and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Institutions Reduce the Noise?

Studies on the causes of income differences between the rich and the poor have received an extensive attention in the inequality empirics. While ethnic diversity has also been identified as one of the fundamental causes of income inequality, the role of institutions as a mediating factor in the ethnicity-inequality nexus has not received the scholarly attention it deserves. To this end, this study complements the existing literature by investigating the extent to which institutional framework corrects the noisy influence originating from the nexus between “ethnic diversity” and inequality in 26 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1996–2015. The empirical evidence is based on pooled OLS, fixed effects and system GMM estimators. The main findings reveal that the mediating influences of institutional settings are defective, thus making it extremely difficult to modulate the noisy impacts of ethno-linguistic and religious heterogeneity on inequality. In addition, the negative influences orchestrated by ethno-linguistic and religious diversities on inequality fail to attenuate the impact of income disparity even when interacted with institutions. On the policy front, institutional reforms tailored toward economic, political and institutional governances should be targeted.

     

Internal Migration and Development: Comparing Migration Intensities Around the World

Migration is the principal demographic process shaping patterns of human settlement, and it serves an essential role in human development. While progress has been made in measuring international migration, internal migration statistics are as yet poorly developed in many countries. This article draws on a repository of data established under the IMAGE (Internal Migration Around the GlobE) project to address this deficit by constructing the first comprehensive league table of internal migration intensities for countries around the world. We review previous work, outline the major impediments to making reliable comparisons, and set out a methodology that combines a novel estimation procedure with a flexible spatial aggregation facility. We present the results in the form of league tables of aggregate crude migration intensities that capture all changes of address over one‐year or five‐year intervals for 96 countries, representing four‐fifths of the global population. Explanation for the observed differences has been sought, inter alia, in historical, structural, cultural, and economic forces. We examine the links between development and migration intensity through simple correlations using a range of demographic, economic, and social variables. Results reveal clear associations between internal migration intensities and selected indicators of national development.     

Three faces of international inequality

Recent studies of international inequality have focused mostly on the trend in international income inequality. This article extends the analysis of international inequality to also include inequalities in education and health. Analyses of time-series data for more than 100 countries show that international income inequality declined from 1980 to 2003 as several large, poor Asian countries outpaced many Western countries in national income growth. By contrast, international health inequality followed a U-shaped trend, falling in the 1980s before rising in the 1990s. The turnaround in health inequality coincides with a trend of declining life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa. International educational inequality experienced the sharpest recent decline, spurred by the global expansion of formal schooling. These findings confirm that there is more to international inequality than income inequality alone and suggest that patterns of inequality in the current era of globalization are likely more complex than many leading theories suggest.     

A Profile of the World's Young Developing Country International Migrants

Individual‐level census and household survey data are used to present a rich profile of young developing country international migrants around the world. They are found to comprise a large share of the flow of migrants, particularly among migrants to other developing countries, with the age distribution of migrants peaking in the late teens or early twenties. Detailed data are presented on the age and sex composition of migrants, on whether young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, on their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, on the types of jobs they have, and on the incidence and age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth immigrant experience across a number of destination countries. Recent developing country young migrants tend to work in similar occupations and are more concentrated in these occupations than recent older migrants or young immigrants who arrived at an earlier age. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity among young immigrants with respect to school attendance and work in their destination country. The potential of international migration for building human capital is significant but far from being fully used.     

Relationship Level and Customer Response to Service Recovery

Service failure is inevitable. A better understanding of how relationship level (RL) influences a consumer’s response to service failure and recovery is an important topic for academics and practitioners. This study investigates the connections among consumer RL, failure attributions (i.e., stability and controllability), service failure severity, perceived equity (PE), compensation, and consumers’ future behavior in the context of restaurant service and online shopping. Using equity theory, this study explored the importance of consumers’ entire history of shared interactions with service organizations. Specifically, the study empirically tested the different consequences of compensation by manipulating consumer RL. Consumer RL motivates consumers to follow a different attribution process to judge the severity of service failure and determines consumers’ PE. Moreover, consumers’ PE could then influence their future behavioral intentions, especially how they continue the relationship with the service organization. Findings from the two studies indicate that when additional compensation is offered after a service failure, PE increased regardless of consumer RL. The influence of compensation on PE thus varies as a function of RL. Consumers with a low RL are more sensitive to compensation. Furthermore, enhanced equity perception automatically means that corresponding future relationship continuity is also enhanced. The results further demonstrate that controllability attribution influences service failure severity, which has a negative impact on the PE of the exchange and mediates the effectiveness of compensation as a recovery effort.     

Social Development Trends in Europe, 1970–1994: Development Prospects for the New Europe

The European region is undergoing dramatic social change. Among other regional and international forces, these changes are rooted in: the collapse of the former Soviet Union; the sudden appearance of a large number of “new” – mostly poor and politically unstable – European nations; and, the emergence of economic trading blocs in North America and Asia. At the same time, the majority of “established” European nations are experiencing sluggish rates of economic growth, moderate to high levels of inflation, high unemployment, escalating demands on public social services, and low fertility in combination with high rates of population aging and immigration from developing countries. Despite the seriousness of the dilemmas confronting the region, European development accomplishments of the past 25 years suggest that the region's leaders already possesses the resources required to solve its complex, social, political, and economic challenges.