THE SUCCESS OF THE FED AND THE DEATH OF MONETARISM

We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there is coefficient uncertainty. From 1960 to 1982 the correlation of the monetary base and inflation was positive and so the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the United States was clearly too large monetary base growth destabilized inflation. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in monetary base growth were clearly stabilizing and could have been just right. ( JEL E52, E31, E32)     

THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper tests systematic responses of the Federal budget to forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Estimated coefficients from fiscal policy reaction functions are examined to determine whether there are such systematic responses. Additionally, the coefficients of these estimated fiscal policy reaction functions are used to test several hypotheses concerning fiscal policy which have been advanced in the political business cycle and public choice literatures.     

THE MEANING OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF MEANING

The interrelation between “processes” and “structures” is addressed in this article with a discussion of quantum theory and classical physics, on the one hand and pragmatic theories of meaning and structuralist ones, on the other. It is concluded that just as quantum theory needs the apparatus of classical physics to establish its own phenomena, pragmatic theories need structuralist apparatus to establish their own. It is argued that both in the case of quanta as in that of meaning, measurement procedures create similar relations of uncertainty: Heisenberg relations in physics and Meadian relations in sociopsychology.     

THE IMPURITY OF REPRESENTATION AND THE VITALITY OF DEMOCRACY

This article compares the conceptions of democratic representation found in the work of Ernesto Laclau and Hanna Pitkin. Whereas Laclau takes Pitkin as his foil, I contend that her treatment of representation has much more in common with Laclau's than he gives her credit for. Pitkin made a bold critique of foundationalist notions of responsiveness and acknowledged representation's constitutive function. Yet, her antipathy to symbolic representation made Pitkin recoil from the most radical implications of her argument: she would see as a threat to democratic politics that which Laclau casts as its vitality. Laclau's work, then, does not merely refute Pitkin's but advances a line of argument that she set into motion.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AND THE EFFICIENCY OF INSTITUTIONS

This paper explores the efect on economic efficiency of the distribution of wealth and systems for enforcing property rights. We construct a two-person, two-period economy in which each person can consume, plant, transfer or steal corn. We find circumstances in which redistribution of wealth is Pareto optimal and in which increasing sanctions against theft to their maximum level is not. These results suggest that it is not only important to consider distribution in the design of property institutions, but also that redistribution itself may serve to increase the efficiency of systems of property rights.     

当代书法的美丑之争

近年来，围绕书法作品“美”与“丑”的问题被书法界内外人士所热议，接连出现了诸如“当代丑书选集”“当代丑书、俗书人物榜单”等网络评选现象。“丑书”之争一方面将不少当代书法家置于聚光灯下，带来多方观点的碰撞；另一方面，这种争论的形成也反映出了中国书法在当今多元文化影响下的真实状态。在当前的文化环境下，“速食”艺术盛行，怀揣深厚传统的中国书法面临着极大的挑战。     

THE GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT AND THE ROLE OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES

How can the recent explosion in the fiscal deficit of the UnitedStates be reconciled with the well-known support of the Americanpublic for fiscal conservatism? It is first shown that the reputationfor fiscal conservatism is fully supported by public opinionpolls dating back over a period of four decades. Solid majoritieshave consistently opposed tax reductions that might producean unbalanced budget. Recently, however, the public has alsoshown strong opposition to increases in taxes to close the fiscalgap, which might appear to imply a new acquiescence to the deficit.But this opposition, too, is shown to have persisted for a longtime and to be not logically inconsistent with rejecting taxcuts resulting in deficit. Another fashionable explanation forthe deficit holds that the budget process in a democratic societyis biased toward deficit because the cost of higher taxes isimmediate while the cost of deficit is delayed. But it is inconsistentwith the fiscal history of the United States over the last 100years, which reveals no systematic bias toward deficits, atleast until recent years. The major explanation that emergesis that the administration succeeded in misleading the public(and perhaps even itself) into believing that the tax cut wouldnot result in deficit thanks to "supply" and "Laffer curve"effects.     

FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas most studies use quasi‐linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB, we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the degree of uncertainty, the policy shock size, and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the ZLB. (JEL E43, E58, E61)     

INFORMATION WARFARE AND THE FUTURE OF THE SPY

This article examines the impact of the new ICTs on the collection of covert intelligence and covert political actions undertaken by national intelligence agencies. It is argued that there exist two distinct doctrines in the literatures of intelligence and information warfare concerning the future relative importance of information from human sources ('agents') and technical methods (signal interception, overhead imagery and the emerging field of clandestine penetration of networked information systems). The arguments in favour of human and technical methods are examined in the context of information warfare techniques and technologies, as are covert action methods such as disinformation, disruptive action and 'cyber-sabotage'. Certain civil liberties implications of ICT-based strong encryption are also examined. The article concludes that what is required is a greater emphasis on integrating human and technical methods into a unified whole, especially where human methods can provide opportunities which can be further exploited by technical methods.     

TECHNOLOGIES OF THE SELF AND THE AESTHETIC PROJECT OF ALTERNATIVE HEALTH

Utilizing ethnographic materials and data from thirty-eight interviews, this article investigates the relevance of alternative health bodily regimes as a source of involvement in public life. These regimes, we argue, have an aesthetic core, a quest for perfect harmony and balance, that step by step makes people available for participation in public life. The article seeks to overcome the neglect of aesthetic sources of participation in public life as well as the neglect of the body as a symbol of risk and a source of resistance to dominant institutional arrangements. Foucault's later writings on "technologies of the self"are used to interpret alternative health regimes and open up their politicizing potential.     

THE TERMS OF TRADE AND THE INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF FISCAL POLICY

This paper develops an example of a noncooperative game between fiscal authorities in two countries. The key strategic link between countries is the terms of trade. An equilibrium without cooperation is characterized by excessive tax rates and public spending levels in each country. The outcome is analogous to the Nash equilibrium of the static optimal tarif game in trade theory. But in this model there is also a dynamic distortion caused by noncooperative behaviour. This dynamic distortion depresses capital accumulation and reduces the equilibrium capital stock in each country. Numerical examples suggest a significant welfare benefit of cooperation.     

NGOS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN BULGARIA AND THE USA

This study examines the development of civil society and its ability to facilitate stronger democratic practices in Bulgaria using the USA as a comparison. Using data gathered from surveys of NGOs in 2006, we examine three sets of questions. First, what is the level of NGO organizational capacity? Second, to what degree are NGOs performing their mediating roles? Third, how do NGOs perceive their effectiveness in working with the state and its citizens. Our findings suggest that Bulgarian NGOs face a number of challenges when compared with US NGOs, which affect their ability to engage in civil society activities such as establishing horizontal ties with citizens and other groups.     

THE DEGRADATION OF THE SACRED: APPROACHES OF COOLEY AND GOFFMAN

Charles Horton Cooley and Erving Goffman both have provided similar, although usually overlooked, contributions to a sociology of religion and culture, namely, their analysis of the process whereby sacred representations of the self-transcending aspect of human nature frequently devolve into fragmented or distorted cultural symbols that increasingly provide legitimation for self-interest alone. Cooley's writings revolve around the dynamic whereby the cultural symbols of Christian mysticism degenerate into the liberal models of economic man. Goffman's work centers around the manner in which sacred rituals, originally emblematic of the social, are degraded and distorted by the onset of self-interested motivations.     

THE STATE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY: FURTHER EVIDENCE

Simultaneous monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions are derived and estimated for the 1969:2–1984.3 period. The results suggest that the Reagan administration has abandoned fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. Furthermore, although the average money growth rate declined in the Reagan administration, variation in the rate of money growth indicates that monetary policy has been used to combat unemployment. Finally, monetary and fiscal policies were not coordinated during this period. Rather, monetary and fiscal policy appear to be set by a Nash equilibrium in a non-cooperative game. In a Nash equilibrium, the policy chosen by each authority maximizes its payoff, given the policy choice of the other authority.     

THE AGENCY OF POLITICS AND SCIENCE

We study a principal‐agent relationship between a politician and a researcher that captures stylized facts regarding the involvement of politics into scientific research. The politician has some ideal policy that he would like to implement, but needs to contract with a researcher to choose a policy that is supported by scientific advice. We study the implemented contracts under symmetric and under asymmetric information about the researcher's ability and concern for reputation, and discuss with which types of researchers the politician will contract. We identify several conflicts between the interests of voters and those of the politician. (JEL D72, D82, D83)     

THE MEANING OF WORK AND HOME

In contemporary society, work and home represent the two most significant domains in the life of a working individual. Changes in family structures and technological changes (e.g. mobile phones and portable computers) that enable job tasks to be performed in a variety of locations have blurred the boundaries between work and home. This all suggests that the meaning that people may have attached to these domains has changed also. The present research uses in-depth qualitative interviews with 10 employees from an Information Technology company to explore the meaning of each persons work and home domain, and the ways in which they interact. Interviews were transcribed into text documents and analysed. Frequency of word use provided a socio-linguistic profile of the words that participants used when asked to talk about their work and home domains. Content analysis of the sentences relating to work and home provided a measure of how frequently respondents talked about their home-life when asked about work, and vice versa. In addition, each participant filled out an adapted version of the PANAS, which assessed affective state in both the work and home domains specifically. Results are discussed in relation to the generation of future hypotheses.