Subcommunity Change in a Changing Metropolis*

Residential areas in cities and suburbs change as they age. The conventional concepts that represent this process are succession and the neighborhood life cycle. In this study we use cohort analysis and multiple regression on small-area data from four censuses to examine population growth patterns among subcommunities in metropolitan Chicago,1940–70. The major findings: among city and suburban areas, cohort is a strong predictor of growth and loss. All suburbs grew early in the period studied, but older suburbs stabilized in the 1960s. Among city areas and suburbs, familism is a strong predictor of growth. Many areas in the city began to lose population in the 1950s, with accelerated loss in the following decade. City areas undergoing racial change in the 1950s lost population rapidly in the following decade. We conclude that the succession model, which is embedded in Burgess' city growth model, no longer accounts for change at the subcommunity level. Thus, the research confirms the life-cycle model but also points to the need for a new macro model of a nongrowing metropolis.     

Determinants of Black Suburbanization: Regional and Suburban Size Category Patterns*

This study analyzes the movement of blacks to the suburbs of American metropolitan areas, using the framework developed by Taeuber and Taeuber (1965) for the analysis of racial transition in inner city neighborhoods. The data are consistent with their model and suggest that the rate of black population growth is a function not only of the characteristies of individual suburbs themselves, but also of the central cities of the metropolitan areas within which they are located. The units of analysis are all suburbs with populations of 10,000 or more in 1960 and 1970. Suburban size is a key characteristic because the independent variables affect black population growth quite differently in different size categories. While there are clear differences between southern and nonsouthern suburbs in average levels of the push and pull variables, as well as the rate at which the black suburban population grew in the 1960s, the effects of these variables on black suburban growth were the same in both regions.     

The Impacts of Highway Expansion on Population Change: An Integrated Spatial Approach

The effects of highways on transforming human society and promoting population change have been investigated in several disciplines, including geography, sociology, economics, and planning. Currently, the primary highway construction activity in the nation is highway expansion; however, this expansion has not been the focus of much of the existing literature. This research examines the role that highway expansion plays in the process of population change. Specifically, this research proposes an integrated spatial regression approach to study the impacts of highway expansion on population change in the 1980s and 1990s in Wisconsin at the minor civil division level. The integrated approach thoroughly considers the factors that influence population change, appropriately examines the spatial variations of their impacts, simultaneously incorporates spatial lag and spatial error dependence, and systematically selects the optimal neighborhood structure. The findings suggest that the impacts of highway expansion on population change differ across rural, suburban, and urban areas: There are only indirect effects in rural areas, both direct and indirect effects in suburban areas, and no statistically significant effects in urban areas. Overall, highway expansion serves as a facilitator of population change within the framework of growth pole theory and location theory.     

Persistence of Suburban Violent Crime Rates: An Ecological Analysis

Abstract

A lagged endogenous variable structural model of 1970 suburban violent crime rates is constructed and evaluated using a sample of 252 large suburbs for which 1960 and 1970 official crime data were available. It was found that suburban crime rates are persistent, that employment specialization and percent low income affect change in violent crime rates, and that suburban age, density, employment specialization, percent low income, percent Black, and region have substantial indirect effects on 1970 crime rates through earlier areal crime rates. Despite theoretical expectations, population growth and age composition exerted no significant direct or indirect effects on violent crime or changes in violent crime rates.     

Central City/Suburban Status Differences: Fifty Years of Change*

Changes in the relative status of central cities compared to their suburban rings are investigated for the periods 1920 to 1950, and 1950 to 1970. Longitudinal alterations in the relative statuses of the two components across metropolitan areas have primarily involved the suburban ring. Somewhat different processes of change were evident in the two time periods, particularly when metropolitan areas are distinguished by their age. In the 1920 to 1950 period, the oldest metropolitan areas evolved toward higher suburban than central city status, while newer metropolitan areas evolved toward higher central city than suburban status. In the 1950 to 1970 period, metropolitan areas generally moved toward a pattern of higher suburban than central city status, regardless of their individual characteristics such as age or period of development.     

The Impact of Racial Composition and Racial Transition on the Status of American Suburbs*

This study explores the potential impact of racial composition and racial change on the socioeconomic status of American suburbs. The sample includes 697 suburbs for which data were available for the study variables, which are percent black, change in percent black, suburban age, employment/residence ratio, population growth and size, distance from the central city, and several socioeconomic status measures. It was found that the impact of racial composition and change on suburban status was either non-existant or spurious.     

Vascular plants along an urban-rural gradient in the city of Tampere,Finland

The aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution of vascular plants along a 21-kilometre rural–urban–rural transect in the city of Tampere, Finland. The study emphasised the distribution of native and non-native species, both in absolute numbers and proportionally. The observed differences are explained by the share of forest land, the number of detached houses, distance from the city centre, and human population. Non-natives showed the highest values in suburban areas. Still, the difference in number of non-natives between suburban and central areas was quite small. In the city of Tampere, there are not continuous large areas devoid of vegetation. The number of native species remained high until the urban core and natives dominated in the rural-type areas of the city. However, there was not a great difference in the number of native species between rural and suburban areas. In the suburban areas, the detached houses and block-of-flats have little effect on the general vegetation. Proportionally, the share of natives decreases in line with the urban traits of the city. Urbanisation therefore affects native species in Finland. Overall, the characteristic features of a Finnish city, such as dispersed urban structure, small population, late urbanisation, abundant natural vegetation (forest) and the qualities of Finnish forests, guarantee the continuing diversity of urban vascular plants.     

Does population aging produce increasing gerontocracy?

As the population of the United States grows older, we might expect the role of the elderly to change. Among the many questions that could be asked about changes in the age stratification system, here we focus on the engagement of older persons in leadership roles. The period covered is roughly 1940 to the present, and the areas of leadership examined are representation in Congress and in professional and managerial occupations. If age-specific rates of representation remain constant over time, the proportion of leadership positions filled by older persons will increase at the same pace that the proportion of the adult population age sixty-five and over is increasing. On the other hand, if changes are occurring in the age stratification system, the role of the elderly in leadership may be either decreasing or increasing more rapidly than the population is aging. The data examined here show that over the past several decades the engagement of older persons in leadership positions has declined rapidly.     

Getting Out and About: The Relationship Between Urban Form and Senior Travel Patterns

As the overall U.S. population expands outward from the central city and core suburbs and as people age in place, more seniors will reside in suburban and exurban locations. This research seeks to determine whether older adults who live in areas with differing urban forms experience travel pattern variations under controls for other factors related to travel. We analyzed data from a telephone survey of a random sample of seniors aged 75 years and older and we employed a unique approach for establishing the urban form of their residential settings. The results show that urban form does influence travel patterns, including the number of trips and transportation mode, and suggest that the construction of compact, mixed-use communities where today's older adults can age in place may be part of the solution to addressing the mobility needs of our aging population.     

STATUS CHANGE AND PERSISTENCE IN CHICAGO SUBURBS: MULTIPLE PATTERNS OF CAUSATION*

An examination of 1970–1980 census data for suburban Chicago indicates that, within the context of persisting inequities, causal links between community characteristics and status change vary by initial status. Individual change in the relative rankings of initially affluent communities is a direct function of housing age and location; residential development and changes in population size have little or no effect on this process. In contrast, cyclical growth is the primary determinant of status change among places of lesser initial affluence. Within the larger context of centrifugal drift and age-related growth cycles, stronger growth and resulting status improvements occur in accessible, underdeveloped newer places that, due to recent suburbanization, have already attained somewhat higher rankings.     

Depleted suburban house sparrow <Emphasis Type="Italic">Passer domesticus</Emphasis> population not limited by food availability

Little is known about the environmental factors that limit the demography and abundance of wild vertebrates in highly modified urban environments. The House Sparrow Passer domesticus is a globally widespread species whose urban populations have recently undergone substantial declines particularly in Europe. The environmental drivers of these declines remain unknown. In a previous study we showed that invertebrate availability during the breeding season limited reproductive success but not population size in a suburban sparrow population. In this study we test experimentally whether year-round food availability limits demography and population size. Supplementary feeding involved the provision of invertebrate prey (during the breeding season) plus unlimited high-energy seed (year-round) at 33 sparrow colonies spread across suburban London over two successive calendar years. Thirty-three unfed colonies served as controls. Supplementary feeding increased fledgling abundance, but had no impact on overwinter survival or population size. We conclude that this depleted suburban sparrow population is not limited by food availability, and conservation efforts based primarily on food provision are unlikely to succeed. We also tested whether cross-colony variation in sparrow abundance was correlated with a set of potential environmental stressors including measures of predator abundance and pollution. Sparrows were more abundant, or showed more positive temporal changes in abundance, at localities containing large areas of seed-rich habitat and low levels of nitrogen dioxide air pollution. Further research is merited into the potential impacts of air pollution on the fitness of urban birds.     

上海郊区农村社会问题调研报告

通过对上海郊区农村调研,农村社会发展呈现出人口老龄化、外来人口日益增多、社会保障不足、基层组织在乡村事务发展中作用弱化等四大社会问题。面对当前郊区农村出现的社会问题,上海要从建设国际大都市的高度和要求出发,立足未来上海郊区农村发展目标,在养老服务、外来人口管理、农业现代化、社会保障等方面,合理、有序地推动市郊的城市化进程。     

A usability gap between older adults and younger adults on interface design of an Internet-based telemedicine system

Internet-based telemedicine is becoming an effective tool to deliver home-healthcare services and health information on demand, especially in rural areas, where there is often a large elderly population with greater rates of preventable chronic diseases. However, the designs of current interfaces for these internet-based telemedicine systems do not take elderly user characteristics into consideration. This study conducted usability testing on the interface of an internet-based telemedicine system using two different age groups, young adults and older adults. Differences in overall performance and satisfaction between the two groups were identified. Based on these results, a future direction is suggested for the interfaces of Internet-based telemedicine systems.     

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. Among those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes--such as the increasing educational level of the elderly population--is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

Changes in Health,Mortality, and Disability and Their Impact on Long-Term Care Needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. knong those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes-such as the increasing educational level of thc elderly population-is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

Female‐Headed Families and Poverty in Rural America*

Abstract Employing data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 March supplements of the Current Population Surveys, this study examines changing household and family structure in metro and nonmetro areas and corresponding changes in poverty, emphasizing female‐headed families with children under age 18. We also pay particular attention to the structure and economic conditions of subfamilies with children during this period. Household and family structure in suburban metro and nonmetro areas were quite similar by 2000. In contrast, families and households in nonmetro and metro central city areas were similar in their high prevalence of poverty. Finally, the risk of female‐headed families and subfamilies with children living in poverty is highest for nonmetro residents, and their individual characteristics suppress rather than account for this disadvantage. This pattern persisted across the decades studied, despite economic growth during the 1990s.     

Effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental influences on tree community composition and structure in forests along an urban-wildland gradient in southwestern Ohio

Urban Ecosystems - Unprecedented population growth and urban expansion are rapidly transforming natural and agricultural settings into highly modified urban and suburban landscapes in developed...     

Chinese Communist Party Central Committee calls on Party and Youth League members to take the lead in having only one child (per couple), [open letter,September 25, 1980

This open letter from the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party concerns the question of controlling China's population growth. To limit the total population of China to 1.2 billion by the end of this century, the State Council has advocated 1 couple giving birth to only 1 child. China's total population will reach 1.3 billion after 20 years and will exceed 1.5 billion after 40 years. Besides the family needing to increase the cost of upbringing, increasing population also requires the state, in order to solve their education, employment, and otheer problem, to raise education expenditures, investments of equipment, and outlays for social and public utilities. The phenomenon of population "aging" will not occur within this century because at present 1/2 of the total national population is below the age of 21, while elderly people above age 65 consist of less than 5%. After 40 years of the practice of 1 child per couple, some families may experience the problem where the elderly lack people to care for them. In the future when production is developed and the people's lives are improved, social welfare and social security will certainly increase and improve continuously. To control population growth, the Party and government have already adopted a series of concrete policies; considerations and allowances are to be given to single children and their families with respect to admission to childcare centers and primar schools. Young comrades must begin with themselves, while old comrades must educate and supervise their own sons and daughters.     

Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.