Social disorganizations and crime rates in U.S. central cities: Toward an explanation of urban economic change

Little attention has been paid to the simultaneous impacts of urban economic change, in particular the effects of industrial restructuring from manufacturing to service industries in central cities and the suburbanization of employment, on both central-city social disorganizations and crime rates in central cities. This study first assumes that urban economic decline aggravates central-city social disorganizations (family disruption, and population mobility). Second, this study proposes that urban economic decline increases central-city crime rates (seven index crime rates). This study used four predictors of economic transformations in an intrametropolitan area between 1980 and 1990 to measure urban economic change. Three of these measures were indicators of central-city economic change (changes in central-city employment ratio of service to manufacturing sectors, unemployment rate, and poverty rate), and one was an indicator of suburban economic change (suburban employment rate). Results from a sample of 153 central cities confirmed that a rise in the central-city employment ratio accelerated suburban population mobility. After including two measures of social disorganizations, urban economic change had a significant effect on central-city crime rates, in which a decline in manufacturing employment, relative to service employment, increased three central-city crime rates: aggravated assault, larceny, and burglary rates. Two central-city crime rates, rape and larceny, increased with a rise in central-city poverty rate, as well. In contrast, suburban employment growth was related to a decrease in central-city violent crime rates.     

POVERTY,IDEOLOGY AND EMPLOYABILITY: CANADIAN AND AUSTRALIAN POLICIES FOR LOW-INCOME MOTHERS

A similar trend is apparent in Australian and Canadian programs to enhance work incentives and program effectiveness, but the Canadian provinces are increasingly insisting that low-income mothers with school-age children enter the workforce rather than accept social benefits to care for their children at home. There is no Canadian counterpart to the Sole Parent Pension or Parenting Allowance, although the provinces pay higher rates of social assistance to needy families than to individuals. Furthermore, there is little public support for the idea that low-income mothers should care for school-aged children at home at the taxpayer's expense. This paper discusses the similarities and differences in rhetoric and policies for low-income mothers, and seeks reasons for the stronger social support for mothering at home in Australia. Although the current discourse of economic rationalism suggests that enhancing work incentives and ‘employability’ will bring prosperity, this paper illustrates that neither paying mothers to care for their children at home nor pushing them into the workforce has reduced family poverty. To make employability programs more effective, governments need to deal with low female wages, the shortage and high cost of child care, and the lack of full-time permanent jobs.     

Economic Segregation,Race, and Homicide*

Objective. Prior research assessing the association between structured inequality and homicides has produced inconsistent findings, particularly in regard to establishing an association between economic disadvantage and black homicide rates. In this study, we employ a measure of the spatial distribution of income, Jargowksy's (1996) economic segregation measure, to assess overall and race‐specific homicide rates. Methods. Using cross‐sectional Census data and Supplemental Homicide Report data across 166 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, the present analysis uses negative binomial regression models to examine the association between economic segregation and homicide rates. Results. We find that both economic segregation and absolute deprivation (i.e., the overall extent of economic disadvantage) are robust predictors of black, white, and overall homicide rates. However, an alternative measure of economic segregation, a measure capturing poverty concentration, was not found to be a significant predictor of black homicide rates. Conclusion. We suggest that further studies should consider the extent of isolation across the income continuum, instead of focusing solely on poverty concentration.     

Changes in the world income distribution

Drawing on new international comparison estimates for 127 nations, this study examines in some detail for the decinnial years 1950–1980 the world size distribution of income. Different income concepts—national output valued in different ways, and also consumption alone; and income per-equivalent adult as well as per capita—have been considered in judging how world inequality has changed. The principal findings are: (i) at a point in time, the intercountry differences in income—differences among nations—are greater than the usually observed intracountry differences in income—differences within nations; and (ii) over time systematic differences in national economic growth rates of countries led on balance to very slightly increased intercountry inequality (quite possible not beyond the margin of measurement error) but that (and this judgment is quite tentative) the changes in intracountry inequality over time have left inequality in the overall distribution unchanged.     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

我国利率市场化对经济生活影响的实证分析

在我国传统的经济生活中,利率是很稳定的因素,它不是根据市场调节的,所以对经济的影响并不明显。随着市场经济的完善,我国逐步实施稳健的货币政策,并以利率为操作工具对存贷款利息进行了多次调整,其作用程度也随之体现出来。为此中国人民银行提出利率市场化改革的总体思路,针对新形势下对利率的作用规律认识的要求,将中国改革开放以来的有关利率作用的规律进行实证分析。首先,全社会的金融化进程与真实利率之间正相关关系;其次,中国转轨经济时期利率对物价、M2、贷款等经济指标作用的改变;最后,将利率的直接作用与间接作用综合考虑形成对经济总量的影响分析。     

ARE WE TOO BUSY TO VOLUNTEER? THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TIME AND VOLUNTEERING USING THE 1997 ABS TIME USE DATA

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers, it may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer. This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.     

North-South relations: Alternative policy simulations for the world economy in the 1980s

This article makes projections of the world economy in the North-South context for the period 1981–1990 using a latest global version of a macroeconomic model named FUGI-GNEM type IV 011–62. The model classifies the world into 62 countries/regions, where the North-South interdependence is incorporated into an integral part of the world economy through international economic linkages. Based on alternative simulations, the author presents future images of the North-South interdependent world economy through changes in economic growth rates, employment, wages, prices, money supply, interest rates, public finance, trade, capital movement, international balance of payments, foreign exchange rates, etc., in each country or region. The model forecasts that the real economic growth of the developing countries as a whole in the 1980s will likely be around 4%–7% annual rate according to alternative policy scenarios.     

Impact of Social Service Expenditures on the Suicide Rate: The Cases of Asia Countries

An empirical study reported that the economic crisis in European countries affected their suicide rates and described that an increase in social services expenditures of US$10 per person in labor market programs impacted the decrease in unemployment suicides by 0.038%. However, there has no study that the economic crisis in Asia countries affected their suicide rates. Since 2008, South Korea has been ranked first for suicide rate in the OECD countries. Many studies have blamed the economic crisis that followed from the US financial crisis in 2007 as the critical cause. However, in the case of Japan, the suicide rate decreased in the same time period (2008–2011) even though they faced the same financial crisis. The purpose of this study was to examine why the different situations in Korea and Japan occurred with the economic crisis through testing whether the government’s social service expenditure affects the people’s suicide rate in Asia countries. These efforts will contribute to understanding the critical role of social service.     

首都会展业与区域经济的互动关系

会展业作为"城市经济的助推器",在扩大经济规模、带动相关投资、平衡产业结构等各个方面能产生广泛的经济效应。同时,会展经济在推动地区基础设施建设、增加就业、提高城市影响力等非经济效益方面也做出了很大的贡献。本文通过对首都会展业与区域经济的相关分析,发现首都会展业对区域经济有明显的推动作用,对北京地区生产总值、旅游业、零售业和就业有明显的驱动效应。同时,区域经济发展也为会展业的兴起提供了物质基础,影响着会展业的规模和发展速度。     

Singapore: social development, housing and the Central Provident Fund

The high rates of economic growth and significant improvements in standards of living recorded in East-Asian nations such as Singapore in recent decades has attracted increasing attention from social policy scholars in the industrial countries. Many believe that the experiences of these countries offer useful lessons for the Western welfare states. This article examines social security and housing policies in Singapore and shows how both were an integral part of a wider commitment to promote economic development. The article suggests that Singapore provides a good example of a developmentalist approach to social welfare that successfully harmonises economic and social objectives.     

MULTIPLE ECONOMIES AND YOUTH LIVELIHOOD

In this paper we present a model of multiple economic spheres in order to understand and explain the income-generating activities of young people. These spheres include the formal sector, the informal waged sector, the informal non-waged sector, the welfare sector and the criminal sector. We conclude that, due to changes in the labour market that affect them in particular ways, young people are engaged in a diverse range of activities within and across each economic sphere.     

Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates

Numerous researchers have questioned the use of the unemployment rate as an explanatory factor in econometric studies which address the relationship between the economy and crime. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory study which sought to test the efficacy of the unemployment rate for predicting reported property crime rates and to identify other economic indicators which may also prove to be useful for predicting crimes with economic under tones or motives. Specifically, larceny-theft, burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, fraud and embezzlement. Given the exploratory nature of the study seven stepwise regressions were computed with unemployment emerging as a significant predictor for only one of the criminal offenses. Findings identified other useful economic variables, such as average wage and salary disbursements, supplemental security income receipts, the consumer price index and per capita personal income which should be considered in lieu of unemployment rates.     

One Person—No Vote; One Vote; Two Votes: Voting Methods, Ballot Types, and Undervote Frequency in the 2000 Presidential Election

Objectives . Political science long ignored the actual mechanics of voting—until the 2000 presidential contest. This research note offers a systematic empirical inquiry into the potential effects of various voting methods and electorate–specific variables on the rate at which citizens register a preference via the act of voting. Methods . Voting methods were analyzed in relation to the rate of undervotes recorded in Georgia's 159 counties during the 2000 general election using a set of multivariate models. Results . Lever machines and fill in the oval optical scan ballots are associated with lower rates of undervoting. Counties with large numbers of new registrants, lower education levels, and a higher proportion of African–American voters were found to have higher error rates. Conclusions . The results of this study provide strong evidence that voting methods and ballot types, as well as electorate–specific characteristics, are key factors in determining the error rate associated with the process of voting at the county level.     

Threats,chances and opportunities: social capital in Europe in times of social and economic hardship

The 2008 financial and economic crisis, characterized by an economic breakdown unparalleled since the Great Depression, provides a unique opportunity to study the relationships between economic developments and social capital by asking: How does social capital change in times of social and economic hardship? In order to explore the trends of social capital development, data from the European Social Survey 2002–2016 are used. The results suggest that economic decline – particularly increasing unemployment – is associated with a decline in social capital, especially in southern European countries. Furthermore, increasing long-term interest rates as an indicator of government future debt sustainability appear to be detrimental for social capital development. The impact of economic decline, however, appears to be contingent upon the functioning of state institutions: especially in countries characterized by well-functioning governments social capital is significantly less affected by economic decline than other countries.     

Discounting climate change

In this paper I offer a fairly complete account of the idea of social discount rates as applied to public policy analysis. I show that those rates are neither ethical primitives nor observables as market rates of return on investment, but that they ought instead to be derived from economic forecasts and society's conception of distributive justice concerning the allocation of goods and services across personal identities, time, and events. However, I also show that if future uncertainties are large, the formulation of intergenerational well-being we economists have grown used to could lead to ethical paradoxes even if the uncertainties are thin-tailed. Various modelling avenues that offer a way out of the dilemma are discussed. None is entirely satisfactory.     

The Computerized System for Optimal Foreign Trade Planning: Objectives,Tasks, and Structure

Improving the effectiveness of social production and securing high rates of economic growth and rises in the standard of living of workers are today connected with the extensive utilization of external economic relations. The Report of the Central Committee of the Communist Party to the Twenty-Fourth Congress states:

One of the major resources to be drawn on in improving the economic effectiveness of the economy is further elaboration and perfection of external economic relations. Political factors, having to do with strengthening socialist fraternity and fortifying the economic basis of peaceful coexistence, and economic factors, stemming from our economic needs, both make it important that we expand the production of goods for export in all branches of industry. This will also help to increase the import of needed goods. There can be no doubt that the expansion of international exchange will have a favorable effect on improving the performance of our industry as a whole. Of course, certain specific measures must be taken to improve the control of all external economic activity if we are to increase the role of economic and scientific-technological relations with other countries in our economic progress.     

The performance of the Australian welfare system in a time of neoliberal economic reform

“Neoliberalism”, both as a body of theory and as a set of policies and practices, is commonly seen as unsympathetic, even antagonistic, to the welfare state. In the period from the mid‐1980s to the global financial crisis of 2007–08, Australia underwent very considerable “neoliberal” economic policy reform. What happened to the Australian welfare system and to Australia's socioeconomic egalitarianism in this period? To shed light on that question three kinds of trend are tracked. The first is household taxes and social expenditure in both cash and kind, using fiscal incidence analysis where the main metric is “net benefits”. The second is economic inequality, as measured by the distribution of incomes and wealth. The third is the performance of the labor market, as measured by earned incomes and unemployment rates. The article concludes with an attempt to integrate the evidence collected from these three sources. The general conclusion is that the Australian welfare system did not follow the pessimists' predictions. The welfare system grew in size and redistributive quantum. Wage levels rose strongly, while unemployment rates fell. Overall, income inequality increased to a small extent, though mainly before the full economic reform process was in place, while wealth inequality changed little.     

The impact of government CSR supporting policies on economic growth

In this paper, we explore the link between socially responsible companies and economic growth across 25 countries during the 2000–2008 period. We extend the growth equation by incorporating corporate social responsibility (CSR) variables and a dummy variable to measure the impact of government CSR-supporting policies. We find that CSR firms are important for economic growth (positively affect growth) and that countries that strongly support CSR achieve higher growth rates. Specifically, countries without an organized and supportive CSR environment and guidelines can hardly expect to increase economy performance through the new growth channels generated by CSR companies (new markets and customers). It is thus important to investigate how CSR companies affect economic growth towards reconsideration of the government's role in CSR promotion as a means to boost economic growth.     

Understanding poverty and unemployment on the Olympic Peninsula after the Spotted Owl

Conserving the natural ecology of an area through environmental restrictions has become increasingly common. The harvest limitations on national forests in the habitat of the Northern Spotted Owl in the 1990s are a well-known example. The controversy that ensued with this listing quickly became framed as one of jobs versus the environment, a contention that often characterizes conservation efforts. This contention is closely tied to export-based economic theory which assumes that a rural area's natural resource commodity base is the most important factor in economic development and community well-being. However, other factors could impact well-being including a prior period of industrial restructuring, the presence of minorities, and mitigating factors such as increasing educational attainment, retirement migration and commuting patterns. Focusing on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, I use panel regression to examine the power of indicators of these different factors to explain poverty and unemployment rates on the peninsula in 2000. Industrial restructuring and the presence of minorities are the only significant explanatory variables for poverty. The presence of minorities is the only significant variable for unemployment rates.