Economic estimate and comparative study of the population of Wuxi in 1980]

In 1980, an economic survey was conducted in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China, in which the members of the general population were asked various questions related to their past and current employment status. The purpose of this survey was to provide information in the following areas: average life expectancy of Wuxi residents (72.32 years); ratio of average number of years of employment; difference between the number of years of employment among Wuxi residents compared with Hong Kong residents (including relevant factors); expected number of years of employment for a life expectancy of 72.32 years; total goods and services consumed in an average lifetime vs. Expected income over an average lifetime; age at which Wuxi residents begin to produce more than they consume; and the age of highest economic productivity. Survey and statistical methods and interpretation of data are explained at length. The information provided by this economic survey should prove useful for economic planning, as well as providing baseline figures for future comparative studies.     

Causes of death contributing to changes in life expectancy in New York City between 1983 and 1992

Recent changes in life expectancy among race and sex groups in New York City were evaluated by analyzing the relative effects of different causes of death in 1983 and 1992, a period in which life expectancy at birth declined by 1.1 years among white males, remained unchanged among black males, and increased 1.2 years among white and black females. Heart disease was found to be the leading cause of death making positive contributions to changes in life expectancy regardless of race or sex, and HIV/AIDS was the leading negative contributor. Overall, deaths from infectious diseases and external causes are becoming more important compared to degenerative conditions in explaining trends in life expectancy in New York City. Past improvements in survival due to reductions in infant deaths are being reversed due to an increase in deaths from preventable causes such as violence and AIDS. Future gains in longevity may require a greater emphasis on policies and programs emphasizing conflict resolution and HIV prevention.     

Gender differences in life expectancy at birth in Greece 1994–2017

In this paper, we analyse the difference in life expectancy at birth between females and males in the Greek population between the years 1994–2017. After constructing life tables per gender, we used the method of Arriaga in order to decompose life expectancy’s differences by age and sex. We found that the gender gap increased until 2009 and decreased afterwards. Moreover, we estimated the differential contribution of the broad age groups of the population to the regulation of gender inequalities in longevity and studied the different effect of the causes of death. Besides age, the most important regulators are the neoplasms and the diseases of the circulatory system, followed by the external causes of morbidity and mortality, as well as the diseases of the respiratory system. All other causes of death play a marginal role. The results of the analysis indicate the need for the development and expansion of several public interventions and programs in order, not only to reduce the gender inequalities in longevity, but also to reduce the prevalence of several preventable diseases in the population.

     

广州、北京、上海三大城市死亡水平的对比分析

本文重点分析了广州、北京、上海三大城市主要年份的粗死亡率、婴儿死亡率以及老年人死亡率和预期寿命的差异,然后从经济发展水平、医疗卫生条件和人口年龄结构三个方面分析了影响其死亡水平的原因,并指出了其主要原因。     

Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants

Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population health factors on specific birth cohorts. It is important to understand the ebbs and flows of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future cohort mortality risks of major chronic diseases. We then examine how those factors affect the age-specific linkage of disability and mortality in three sets of birth cohorts assessed using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys and Medicare mortality data collected from 1982 to 1991. We find large changes in both mortality and disability in those cohorts. providing insights into what changes might have occurred and into what future changes might be expected.     

Comparative analysis of the index of our population life quality]

A comprehensive method of calculating and measuring a country's or an area's health and literacy levels is examined. The method, known as population quality life inference (PQLI), was used to determine which of China's provinces has the highest and the lowest degree of population quality. The PQLI indicates infant mortality, average life expectancy of 1 year olds, and literacy rates of those 15 years and older. Because developing countries traditionally have high rates of infant mortality and illiteracy and low life expectancy rates during their industrialization, measuring the degree of population quality of life improvement of such countries during this period was found to be significant. These factors (infant mortality, illiteracy, and life expectancy) will improve substantially as industrialization continues. In order to compare various areas, these 3 factors must be changed into "inferences" 0-100, "0" representing the lowest population quality and "100" the highest. These 3 inferences must then be averaged in order to calculate the PQLI. For example: life expectancy value 77 (highest in the world) minus 38 (lowest)/100 = .39. In order to measure the value of India's life expectancy: value of 1-year-old's life expectancy = 56 (1-year-old's life expectancy in India) minus 38/.39 = 46. The value of adult illiteracy does not need to be changed. Thus, the actual comparison will be based on the values of the 3 inferences. Using this method of calculation, it is concluded that the PQLI analysis indicated that Peking (93.04) is the highest in China and Yumnan Province (60.72) is the lowest.     

Social inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in the french male population, 1980–1991

We calculate aggregate indicators of population health for occupational groups to gauge changes in health disparities during the 1980-1991 period. The study is based on the experiences of French adult men in three major occupational classes: managers, manual workers, and an intermediary occupational group. Life table models show that managers have longer life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) than manual workers, and a shorter life expectancy with disability. The concurrent increases in life expectancy and DFLE during the period maintained the occupational disparities in health; the years lived with disability, however, declined for all groups, as for the entire French population.     

The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia

From 1992 to 1994 life expectancy for Russian males dropped from 62.0 to 57.6 years. Female life expectancy dropped from 73.8 years to 71.2 years. This drop in life expectancy coincided in time with the introduction of painful economic reforms in Russia, leading to a rapid decrease in real wages and pensions, nearly complete loss of personal savings, and a tremendous increase in the poverty rate. This article examines the temporary changes in mortality for violent causes of death during the crisis period with a special emphasis on age-specific and gender-specific differences in the response to economic crisis.     

The Timing and Pace of Health Transitions around the World

Estimates from some 700 mostly national studies of survival in the past are assembled to create a broad picture of regional and global life expectancy gains across space and time and to examine implications of that picture. At the initiation of their health transitions, most countries had a life expectancy between 25 and 35 years. Countries that began later made gains at a faster pace. Those faster gains are usually associated with the dissemination of Western medicine. But rapid gains occurred in the period 1920–50, largely before the availability of antibiotics or modern vaccines. Especially rapid gains came in the years immediately after World War II in countries where the leading causes of death were communicable diseases that could be managed with antibiotics but also in countries where the leading causes of death were degenerative organ diseases. Both periods of rapid gain await satisfactory explanation. The bibliography of more than 700 sources is published separately on the web at « http://www.lifetable.de.RileyBib.htm ».     

Examination of the status of health of population in Poland

"This article presents sources of information about the health status of the Polish population...; the number and causes of deaths, the morbidity due to more important diseases and average life expectancy.... At the same time this situation is compared with those in some European countries."     

Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy

Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.     

On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy

The projection of mortality rates requires inter alia close examination of the mortality experience of a population over a long period of time and will usually also involve the analysis of mortality trends by cause of death. In two of the more important recent contributions, techniques were devised for explaining change in life expectancy in terms of mortality changes in particular age groups and by different causes of death. The approaches adopted by the authors differ, and the purpose of this article is to reconcile the two and tie the results in with those obtained by earlier writers. A new method for explaining the change in a life expectancy differential in terms of the observed changes in the mortality differentials and the observed change in overall mortality level is also described.     

近50年来世界人口期望寿命的演变轨迹

进入21世纪以来,全球人口已经突破60亿,但是人口增长速度明显减慢。许多国家已经完成了人口转变,其总和生育率在更替水平以下。与此同时,人口健康状况得到明显改善,死亡水平显著降低,期望寿命在不断提高。本文利用联合国人口司发布的192个国家人口死亡信息,系统分析了世界人口平均期望寿命在过去50年里的演变态势、区域差异以及演变模式。结果显示世界人口期望寿命经历了半个多世纪的持续增长,有50%以上的人口或国家平均期望寿命达到了70岁。演变轨迹呈多样化的发展模式,区域发展不平衡。欠发达地区总体上较发达地区增幅大,人口比重上升幅度也很显著。人均期望寿命增幅最大的是亚洲国家,非洲国家与世界不同步,而且区域内差异较大。     

Changing causes of death and the sex differential in the USA

This paper examines the sex differential in US life expectancy, the changes in this differential over the past 25 years and into the near future, and the apportionment of these differences among the leading causes of death. Movements in the sex differential over the years 1960–1985 were largely determined by changes in the accidents and violence and heart disease causes of death. The use of the life expectancy measure emphasizes the importance of those causes of death that impact most severely at younger ages. The historical analysis is extended through projections of life expectancies by sex. In the projections increased cancer mortality among males contributes to a widening differential, tempered by greater progress against heart disease for males.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the meetings of the Population Association of America, 30 April-2 June 1992, in Denver, Colorado.     

Inequality in life expectancy, functional status, and active life expectancy across selected black and white populations in the United States

We calculated population-level estimates of mortality, functional health, and active life expectancy for black and white adults living in a diverse set of 23 local areas in 1990, and nationwide. At age 16, life expectancy and active life expectancy vary across the local populations by as much as 28 and 25 years respectively. The relationship between population infirmity and longevity also varies. Rural residents outlive urban residents, but their additional years are primarily inactive. Among urban residents, those in more affluent areas outlive those in high-poverty areas. For both whites and blacks, these gains represent increases in active years. For whites alone they also reflect reductions in years spent in poor health.     

Changing mortality patterns that led life expectancy in Japan to surpass Sweden’s: 1972–1982

Between 1972 and 1982, Japan caught up to and then surpassed Sweden as the country with the longest life expectancy. The contributions of different causes of death and age groups to life expectancy changes in males during this time period are examined in detail for these two countries. Even though cerebrovascular disease mortality rates remained lower in Sweden over the entire interval, the rapid gain made by Japan relative to Sweden for this cause of death was a prime factor in Japan's ending the period with a higher life expectancy. Important contributions to life expectancy improvement in Japan came from declining mortality rates in those aged 55 and older.     

Global patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

Atechnique for estimating life expectancy with crude vital rates

This paper describes a method of estimating life expectancy at birth on the basis of crude vital rates. The method is derived from stable population theory and it furnishes good estimates insofar as the current crude vital rates of a population are close to its intrinsic rates. This condition is generally met in closed populations which have not experienced sharp movements in fertility. The method is useful for estimating life expectancy in developing nations with good sample registration systems but for which information on age is of poor quality. It is also useful for estimating the movement of life expectancy in certain European nations in the period prior to regular census taking. There are a number of nations and regions in Europe for which long series of birth and death rates are available but for which census age counts are widely spaced.     

How Long Do We Live?

Period life expectancy is calculated from age‐specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most widely employed tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of life tables. This article argues that when the mean age at death is rising, period life expectancy at birth as conventionally calculated overestimates life expectancy. Estimates of this upward bias, ranging from 1.6 years for the United States and Sweden to 3.3 years for Japan for 1980–95, are presented. A similar bias in the opposite direction occurs when mean age at death is falling. These biases can also distort trends in life expectancy as conventionally calculated and may affect projected future trends in period life expectation, particularly in the short run.     

Cardiovascular and Tuberculosis Mortality: The Contrasting Effects of Changes in Two Causes of Death

Tuberculosis was the largest source of deaths among younger adults, and cardiovascular disease among older adults, in the America of 1900. Decreases in deaths from tuberculosis since 1900 and cardiovascular disease since 1940 explain most of the mortality drops in those age groups over the century. This article, building on previous work by White and Preston, shows the results of increased survival from these two causes on the US population structure. Standard demographic cause-specific mortality calculations are used to generate life tables without deaths from cardiovascular disease or tuberculosis. Then fixed rates for these diseases from early in the century are assumed while all other causes of death are allowed to change as they did historically. Improvements in cardiovascular mortality and tuberculosis produce some seemingly illogical contrasts. More people are alive today because of the decrease in tuberculosis. Yet more deaths from cardiovascular disease have been prevented, and cardiovascular improvements have raised life expectancy more. Lower tuberculosis mortality had virtually no effect on the average age of the population. Lower cardiovascular mortality alone has raised that average more than all twentieth-century causes of improved mortality combined.