How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making

Anger is one of the most frequently experienced emotions. However, the extant research on the impact of anger has predominantly focused on its effect on decision making in simple decision tasks. Strategic decision making differs significantly from such tasks, as it is characterized by complexity, ambiguity, and a high information load. To better understand the impact of emotions on strategic decision making, we investigate the effect of anger on decision quality and decision speed. To do so, we carry out a strategy field experiment with 52 executives in which we use participants’ psychophysiological skin conductance response. In line with psychological research on non-strategic decisions, we find that anger negatively influences decision quality in strategic decision making. However, in contrast to predictions made by research on non-strategic decisions, we find no increase in decision speed among angry participants. We thus extend extant theory by suggesting that anger impacts the quality of strategic decisions but does not affect important process characteristics such as decision speed.     

The complementary effects of rationality and intuition on strategic decision quality

Rationality and intuition are important dimensions of the strategic decision process. Prior studies have viewed these as distinct dimensions, providing limited insights for our understanding of strategic decision processes. Drawing on the dual process theory and research on process capability, this study examines the interplay between rationality and intuition based on a sample of 103 strategic decisions made by service firms in Greece. The results suggest that combining rationality and intuition at the same time leads to successful strategic decisions. Also, the moderating role of environmental dynamism was investigated. We found that in dynamic settings, decision-making teams which combine rationality and intuition outperform teams which use rationality or intuition separately. The implications of these findings for theory and practice are important and are analysed in the paper.     

James Gardner March: Founder of organization theory,decision theorist,and advocate of sensible foolishness

James G. March helped to create organization theory and a “behavioral theory of the firm”, and he contributed very important insights about decision making and organizational learning. His articles challenge prevalent assumptions and rely on casual observation rather than systematic empiricism. His influence demonstrates the power of conceptualization and creative logic, and examples that capture the imaginations of listeners and readers.     

Measuring strategic decision making efficiency in different country contexts: A comparison of British and Turkish firms

This paper compares the relative efficiency of the strategic decision making (SDM) processes of British and Turkish firms. The technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure the relative efficiency of these firms. The evidence obtained by the DEA analysis reveals that the Turkish firms tend to be superior to the British firms in terms of their SDM efficiency. There is a significant difference in scale returns with respect to the country of origin of the firms. The analysis of the improvement potential of inputs indicates that Turkish firms place more emphasis on managing environmental turbulence to enhance their SDM efficiency, while British firms tend to overly focus on the design of an appropriate organizational structure. However, no significant difference was noted between the two groups of firms with regard to the level of resources and effort exerted on formal strategic planning practices. The analysis of output deficits reveals that there is a significant difference between British and Turkish firms in the sources of inefficiency.     

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

Individual differences in numerical representations of risk in health decision making: A fuzzy-trace theory approach

Fuzzy-trace theory predicts that decisionmakers process numerical information about risk at multiple levels in parallel: the simplest level, nominal (categorical some-none) gist, and at more fine-grained levels, involving relative comparison (ordinal less-more gist) and exact quantities (verbatim representations). However, little is known about how individual differences in these numerical representations relate to judgments and decisions, especially involving health tradeoffs and relative risks. To investigate these differences, we administered measures of categorical and ordinal gist representations of number, objective numeracy, and intelligence in two studies (Ns = 978 and 956). In both studies, categorical and ordinal gist representations of number predicted risk judgments and decisions beyond objective numeracy and intelligence. Participants with higher scores in categorical gist were more likely to choose options to avoid cancer recurrence risks; those who were higher in ordinal gist of numbers were more likely to discriminate relative risk of skin cancer; and those with higher scores in objective numeracy were more likely to choose options that were numerically superior overall in terms of relative risk of skin cancer and of genetic risks of breast cancer (e.g., lower numerical probability of cancer). Results support parallel-processing models that assume multiple representations of numerical information about risk, which vary in precision, and illustrate how individual differences in numerical representations are relevant to tradeoffs and risk comparisons in health decisions. These representations cannot be reduced to one another and explain psychological variations in risk processing that go beyond low versus high levels of objective numeracy.     

A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or other practical reasons. We identify some ‘simplified’ models currently in use and use a simulation experiment to evaluate their ability to approximate results obtained using MAUT. Our basic message is that avoiding assessment errors in the application of a simplified model is more important than the choice of a particular type of model, but that the best performance over a range of decision problems is from a model using a small number of quantiles.     

Use of risk assessment and life cycle assessment in decision making: a common policy research agenda.

Quantitative risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are both analytical tools used to support decision making in environmental management. They have been developed and used by largely separate groups of specialists, and it is worth considering whether there is a common research agenda that may increase the relevance of these tools in decision-making processes. The validity of drawing comparisons between use of the tools is established through examining key aspects of the two approaches for their similarities and differences, including the nature of each approach and contextual and methodological aspects. Six case studies involving use of each approach in public decision making are described and used to draw out concerns about using RA and LCA in this context. The following categories of concern can be distinguished: philosophical approach of the tools; quantitative versus qualitative assessment; stakeholder participation; the nature of the results; and the usefulness of the results in relation to time and financial resource requirements. These can be distilled into a common policy research agenda focusing on: the legitimacy of using tools built on a particular perspective in decision making; recognition and role of value judgments in RA and LCA; treatment of uncertainty and variability; the influence of analytical tools in focusing attention on particular aspects of a decision-making situation; and understandability of the results for nonspecialists. It is concluded that it is time to bring together the experiences of RA and LCA specialists and benefit from cross-fertilization of ideas.     

Organizational change and rigidity during crisis: A review of the paradox

When and how do existential crises, threatening business continuity, stimulate organizational change or cause the opposite—rigid preservation of established business practices? This question remains unresolved, despite three decades of deliberations in the academic literature, which still yields contradicting theoretical arguments and empirical results. One view argues and finds support for the hypothesis that posits an amplified propensity to change within threatened organizations. The other view supports the threat-rigidity thesis, implying reinforcing habitual practices. In this paper, we provide a novel holistic typology of organizational crises and then review the literature on the topic, summarizing existing insights within a theoretical framework comprising three interrelated sequential processes: organizational cognition, decision-making, and implementation. We analyze the gaps in the field's knowledge within each process and propose a research agenda to address these voids.     

管理：制定和实施规则的技术——管理规则论引论

通过对人类社会各类管理现象的考察,以及对几种代表性管理定义的分析,归纳出管理活动的特有行为方式的本质是制定和实施规则,并据此提出管理的基本职能及其相应的基本工作环节.     

Concerns,Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

In the analysis of the risk associated to rare events that may lead to catastrophic consequences with large uncertainty, it is questionable that the knowledge and information available for the analysis can be reflected properly by probabilities. Approaches other than purely probabilistic have been suggested, for example, using interval probabilities, possibilistic measures, or qualitative methods. In this article, we look into the problem and identify a number of issues that are foundational for its treatment. The foundational issues addressed reflect on the position that “probability is perfect” and take into open consideration the need for an extended framework for risk assessment that reflects the separation that practically exists between analyst and decisionmaker.     

Evaluating the life cycle of a building: A multivariant and multiple criteria approach

This paper considers the application of methodology for the multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis of the life cycle of a building. The theoretical basis of the methodology is developed. A proposed methodology allows everyone (i.e. client, investor, contractor, etc.), who has to make the decisions, to design alternatives of the building life cycle and to evaluate its qualitative and quantitative aspects. This approach, in which various criteria can be employed, is intended to support the decision making on a building's life cycle selection and increase the efficiency of the resolution process. The procedure of the evaluating of a building's life cycle is discussed using an example.     

Retail category management: State-of-the-art review of quantitative research and software applications in assortment and shelf space management

Retail requires efficient decision support to manage increasing product proliferation and various consumer choice effects with limited shelf space. Our goal is to identify, describe and compare decision support systems for category planning. This research analyzes quantitative models and software applications in assortment and shelf space management and contributes to a more integrated modeling approach. There are difficulties commonly involved in the use of commercial software and the implementation and transfer of scientific models. Scientific decision models either focus on space-dependent demand or substitution effects, whereas software applications use simplistic rules of thumb. We show that retail assortment planning models neglect space-elastic demand and largely also ignore constraints of limited shelf space. Shelf space management streams on the other hand, mostly omit substitution effects between products when products are delisted orout-of-stock, which is the focus of consumer choice models in assortment planning. Also, the problem sizes of the models are often not relevant for realistic category sizes. Addressing these issues, this paper provides a state-of-the-art overview and research framework for integrated assortment and shelf space planning.     

Travel Risks in a Time of Terror: Judgments and Choices

Shortly after the 2002 terrorist attacks in Bali, readers of Conde Nast Traveler magazine were surveyed regarding their views on the risks of travel to various destinations. Their risk estimates were highest for Israel, and lowest for Canada. Estimates for the different destinations correlated positively with (1) one another, (2) concern over aspects of travel that can make one feel at risk (e.g., sticking out as an American), (3) worries about other travel problems (e.g., contracting an infectious disease), and (4) attitudes toward risk. Respondents' willingness to travel to a destination was predicted well by whether their estimate of its risk was above or below their general threshold for the acceptability of travel risks. Overall, the responses suggest orderly choices, based on highly uncertain judgments of risks. Worry played a significant role in these choices, even after controlling for cognitive considerations, thereby supporting the recently proposed "risk as feelings" hypothesis. Thus, even among people who have generally consistent and defensible beliefs, emotions may affect choices. These results emerged with people selected for their interest in and experience with the decision domain (travel), but challenged to incorporate a new concern (terror).     

The relationship of organizational and social coping resources to employee coping behaviour: A longitudinal analysis

Research on the determinants of coping behaviour has focused primarily on stressor-specific influences and on personal attributes and skills that serve as coping resources. However, coping resources can also include aspects of the organizational and social environment. This study investigates the role of supportive work relationships and of participation and influence in decision-making in determining the coping behaviour of employees in a manufacturing plant. Since the relationships between worksite coping resources and employee coping behaviours may be causally reciprocal, longitudinal models were analysed to sort out causal priorities. Results showed that organizational and social coping resources did influence subsequent coping behaviour. Perceiving oneself to have influence over decision-making at work predicted increases in active, problem-solving coping attempts and decreases in resignation in response to worksite stressors. Also, employees who perceived their co-workers and supervisors to be supportive were more likely to increase their mobilization of that support when faced with worksite stress. In addition, the use of certain employee coping behaviours influenced subsequent levels of participation in decision-making, as well as the quality of relationships with co-workers and supervisors.     

The relationship of organizational and social coping resources to employee coping behaviour: A longitudinal analysis

Abstract

Research on the determinants of coping behaviour has focused primarily on stressor-specific influences and on personal attributes and skills that serve as coping resources. However, coping resources can also include aspects of the organizational and social environment. This study investigates the role of supportive work relationships and of participation and influence in decision-making in determining the coping behaviour of employees in a manufacturing plant. Since the relationships between worksite coping resources and employee coping behaviours may be causally reciprocal, longitudinal models were analysed to sort out causal priorities. Results showed that organizational and social coping resources did influence subsequent coping behaviour. Perceiving oneself to have influence over decision-making at work predicted increases in active, problem-solving coping attempts and decreases in resignation in response to worksite stressors. Also, employees who perceived their co-workers and supervisors to be supportive were more likely to increase their mobilization of that support when faced with worksite stress. In addition, the use of certain employee coping behaviours influenced subsequent levels of participation in decision-making, as well as the quality of relationships with co-workers and supervisors.