亚洲女性收入对生育率影响的国际比较研究--基于劳动参与率、受教育程度、就业方式的视角

通过构建家庭效用函数模型,论证了家庭收入增长中女性收入对家庭生育决策的影响,说明了随着女性收入的提高,会降低生育率。进一步,通过引用女性劳动参与率、受教育程度及就业方式作为女性收入对生育率影响的中间变量,再运用相关数据进行实证分析,发现女性劳动参与率、受教育程度对生育率有着负向的影响,而女性非全日制就业方式对生育率有着正向的影响。再进一步,对亚洲各国生育政策的调整进行国际比较,探讨生育政策的具体措施与影响女性收入的三个因素之间的关系,最后针对中国目前的生育水平提出两方面的建议：硬政策的完善和软环境的支持,以有助于提高人口素质,优化人口结构。     

生育支持政策何以有效:性别平等视角下的27国生育支持政策组合与生育率反弹北大核心

中国的生育水平长期提振乏力,借鉴世界低生育率国家总和生育率反弹经验并构建中国特色的生育支持政策体系势在必行。以27个低生育率典型国家为例,在构建追踪数据的基础上,分析不同生育支持政策组合对总和生育率反弹的影响以及性别平等发展水平对政策效果的调节作用。研究发现,相较于支持“男性单职工模式”的政策组合,支持“双职工模式”的政策组合更有利于总和生育率的提升;经济支持政策与总和生育率之间有稳定的正向关系,服务支持政策和时间支持政策对总和生育率的提升效果受到性别平等发展水平的调节;在性别平等发展水平更高的国家,服务支持政策和时间支持政策的效果更明显。生育支持政策的制定应考虑不同类型政策之间的相互协调与组合,并深度思考政策背后的价值导向和政策实施的社会情景,营造性别友好的社会文化环境。     

论内在总和生育率

在不断完善对时期生育率的测量指标中,人口学家们提出了各种基于对生育行为各个方面进行控制的生育率指标,以便获得更为准确的生育水平度量。对生育率的数量成分和进度成分的分解,使得我们对时期生育率的变化有了更深入的认识。针对递进生育率和去进度效应总和生育率的缺陷,澳大利亚学者提出了内在总和生育率的指标,并通过实证研究表明它能更准确测量生育率的数量效应和进度效应。内在总和生育率是对生育的年龄、胎次和间隔同时进行控制的生育率指标,反映的是生育行为内在稳定的生育水平。本文对这一方法进行介绍,并利用我国1988年2‰人口生育率抽样调查数据,说明该指标的构建和计算过程。     

中国生育率地理波与先进生育文化的区域传播

我国生育率变动存在着一种有规律可循的地理波现象 ,这是发展的时空差异在生育上的表现。我国生育率变动大致可分 5大先发生地、5大扩散区域。以语言为代表的文化因素的同质性 ,有利于先进生育文化的迅速扩散。我国经济因素和文化因素对省区生育率差异作用的强度呈现两个“U”字型 ,即文化因素的正“U”字型曲线和经济因素的倒“U”字型曲线。现阶段我国区域文化的差异 ,已经成为地区生育水平发展不平衡的主要因素。     

利用初育年龄测度终身生育率的探索

理论上终身生育率是衡量妇女生育水平的理想指标,但由于时滞问题而难以运用;实践中采用的总和生育率用不同年龄妇女生育率加总进行替代,虽然简便易行,却存在一定偏差。与现有的利用总和生育率推算终身生育率的研究有别,本文尝试利用真实育龄妇女队列的初育年龄测度终身生育率。依据1950²011年育龄妇女的年龄别生育率数据,发现初育年龄与终身生育率之间具有显著的负相关关系并且具有较好的拟合效果。这表明,应用初育年龄可以及时提供妇女终身生育率的可靠信息。     

21世纪以来欧洲生育率反弹成因分析及其对中国的启示

21世纪以来欧洲生育率在经历了持续低迷后开始出现反弹。本文基于西方“第二次人口转变”理论和“低生育率陷阱”假说,从理论层面和现实层面对欧洲生育率反弹的成因进行剖析。研究发现国际人口迁移、文化嬗变作用下的个人主义思潮、宗教弱化、非婚生育观等是欧洲生育率反弹的重要影响因素。欧洲国家多年来通过现金补贴、税收减免以及完善公共服务等政策强制降低了“低生育率陷阱”的自我强化机制,阻止了生育率的持续下滑。由于欧洲各国的文化传统、社会结构、经济发展等存在差异,所以在制定促进生育率反弹的政策时具有不同的思路和侧重点。文章通过数据分析总结欧洲各国总和生育率反弹的方式和程度,并对欧洲典型国家的生育支持政策的效果进行简单评估。研究发现以减轻女性照顾家庭的责任,保障女性在职场的权益为出发点的“去家庭化”政策比主张传统的家庭分工,女性照顾家庭的“再家庭化”政策更为有效。而兼顾“去家庭化”与“再家庭化”政策的国家生育率反弹最为明显。     

生育转型、性别平等与香港生育政策选择

香港是世界上生育率水平最低的超低生育率地区之一。低生育率现象是个体导向的社会机制所倡导的两性平等与家庭导向的社会机制在事实上的性别不平等之间强烈冲突的结果。“有偿养育计划”也许是刺激那些有多生倾向的家庭把生育意愿转变为实际生育行为的有效途径。     

应用队列累计生育率分析我国生育水平变动趋势——兼与郭志刚教授讨论

本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。     

我国生育率转变的微观经济分析

生育率转变,即生育率下降是经济、政治、社会、文化等多种因素综合作用的结果。影响我国生育率转变的微观经济因素主要有家庭收入、家庭经济类型、家庭消费模式和生活质量等。     

基于调研数据的总和生育率发展趋势及影响因素分析——来自湖北鄂州、黄石、仙桃的调查数据

文章基于5490份有效问卷的调查数据对湖北省总和生育率（TFR）进行分析。结论表明,自1985年以来年龄别生育率下降主要原因是计生政策严格控制生育数量,而非生育行为的推迟。TFR呈现先快速下降后缓慢上升的趋势,其变化与高生育水平育龄妇女占比无关。与政策生育率变化有关。通过对湖北省总出生人数进行估算和分析,结论表明1985—2008年总和生育率对总出生人数的影响程度要大于高生育水平育龄妇女占比的影响;外推预测表明2009～2014年出生人数趋势稳定,2015年以后呈下降趋势。利用Logit模型对实际生育水平的影响因素进行分析,发现有显著影响的因素为：受访者文化程度、户口性质、出生年代、工作状态、丈夫工作状态、放宽的计生政策和奖励少生的计生政策。     

Economic determinants of family size in West Africa

The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband's education is used as a proxy for income; the "price" of a child is accounted for by wife's education and wife's wage rate. Other important variables are wife's age, a measure of child "quality," wife's age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.     

Economic motives for family limitation

Abstract Taiwan can boast one of the most rapid rates of economic development in the world over the past 20 years. Taiwan is also in the midst of the demographic transition. The nature of the connection between economic development and the onset and progress of the fertility decline is far from clear, however. Rather than explore the relation between income and fertility change, this paper will be concerned with some of the economic motivations which may be responsible for fertility decline during the demographic transition. Inquiries in this area have been handicapped by having to rely on aggregative or on household data which included only a very limited set of economic variables (other than income) along with demographic data. In order to re-examine the linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level, a special survey was conducted in Taiwan in 1969. While recognizing that economic factors are not wholly, perhaps not even primarily, responsible for the lowering of the birth rate, the central interest of this paper is the complex of cost and benefit considerations which may contribute to a decline of the rate, using the new data for Taiwan.     

家庭子女养老与个人养老“互补替代”效应：理论与实证

依据生命周期均衡收入分配原理,构建家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配适度水平及其"互补替代"数理模型,从理论和实证角度研究家庭子女养老和个人养老经济结构优化。研究发现:(1)家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配存在"替代"关系,而在退休年龄延长的条件下,二者存在"互补"关系;(2)家庭子女养老和个人养老替代的均衡点是家庭有2个子女,随着子女数量的增加,家庭子女养老与个人养老边际替代率递减;(3)伴随老年人寿命的延长,家庭子女养老收入再分配系数下降,个人养老收入分配系数上升且上升幅度大于前者下降幅度;(4)家庭子女养老与个人养老之间的"互补替代"效应呈现为"倒V形"曲线,且其替代的均衡点与总和生育率2.1的更替水平存在契合效应。     

中国农村居民家庭的生育决策模型与实证分析

根据"五普"和"六普"资料,人口总和生育率显著低于世代更替水平,这表明中国人口进入了低生育水平发展阶段。关于这一问题的合理解释是除了计划生育政策影响外,农村家庭生育决策的变化可能是内生的重要影响因素。基于生育决策模型及实证分析,得出这样的结论:在土地量保持不变的条件下,农村居民家庭的生育决策主要取决于收入水平和抚养子女的成本。农村居民家庭可能会依据"量质权衡"减少生育子女,这可能是导致中国人口生育水平下降的根本原因。     

Why do English-speaking countries have relatively high fertility?

In broad terms, the division in Europe between countries with very low fertility and countries with sustainable fertility matches Esping-Anderson’s classification of the same countries into ‘conservative’ and ‘social democratic’ (Esping-Anderson 1990). A central difference between these two types relates to their preferred models of the family. The conservative countries hold more to the ‘breadwinner’ model of the family while the social democratic countries seek higher levels of gender equity within the family and in the workplace. State support in both conservative and social democratic countries is designed to be consistent with these differing views of the family. Would we then not expect fertility to be very low in Esping-Anderson’s third group of countries, the ‘liberal’ countries, essentially English-speaking countries? By the Esping-Anderson definition, liberal countries are notable for their lack of support for families from public sources. Instead, according to Esping-Anderson, families must rely upon market provision for the services that they may need to combine work and family and they must rely on market employment to generate the income required to support their children. Contrary to this theory, whether measured by contemporary cross-sectional fertility or completed cohort fertility, with the exception of Canada, English-speaking countries now have the highest fertility rates among the countries that were classified by Esping-Anderson. Given the strength of theoretical explanation that arises from comparative studies of fertility in Europe, the paper examines why fertility in English-speaking countries seems not to follow expectation.     

禀赋、场域与中国妇女生育意愿研究

利用2006年中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据,构建模型,对中国18～52岁妇女的意愿生育决策、生育强度及其影响因素进行实证分析。在众多因素中,家庭已有孩子构成、能力禀赋、资本禀赋对妇女生育意愿有着显著影响,技术禀赋对妇女再生育的意愿和强度有重要影响。同时,将划分生育场域边界的地区变量纳入模型,显示不同区域间妇女的生育意愿存在较大差别,中西部地区妇女的生育意愿明显高于东北部地区;妇女禀赋条件越改善、禀赋水平越高、生育场域越优化,其生育意愿、生育强度越低,生育行为越趋理性。未来开展人口和计划生育工作,制定、调整人口和计划生育政策,应该对此予以充分考虑。     

Economic considerations in family growth decisions

Abstract Examination of the fertility patterns of a sample of white Detroit couples at selected stages of the family life cycle indicates that, in a large American metropolis, family income is more closely related to the time when a family is formed and has its children than to the number of children it expects to have. In a longitudinal study, current income is strongly related to the timing of demographic events-the age at marriage, whether pre-maritally pregnant, the time interval from marriage to a given parity, and fertility during a two-year follow-up period. This paper also explores the hypothesis that a family's evaluation of its economic position and the choices it makes about important family expenditures has a relation to fertility apart from the family's objective current income level. Couples who consider their income adequate for their needs or relatively greater than that of their friends or peers, and those who expect substantial increases in the future, tend to expect more children than those who do not. Small but consistent differences obtain over the parities studied. Variables indexing alternative family expenditure patterns, such as cars, or savings for college education for children, are associated with lower family size expectations and longer spacing patterns.     

A tentative analysis of the effect of income on women's fertility]

The impact of income on women's fertility in China is analyzed using data from official and other published sources. The author notes that there is a clear link between lower fertility and higher income up to a certain point. This point seems to be when family income reaches a level of 300 yan in rural areas. Other factors affecting fertility are also considered, including the national family planning program, female educational level, and female labor force participation.     

深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。